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Title Author(S) th 5 European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY ECSS 2009 Abstracts by session ECSS 2009 - 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12-16 October 2009 - Landshut – GERMANY List of the abstract accepted for presentation at the conference: O – Oral presentation P – Poster presentation Session 06: Numerical studies, e.g. of convective initiation, storm life cycles and phenomena Page Type Abstract Title Author(s) Explicit forecasting of supercells with the operational A. Seifert, M. Baldauf, C. O COSMO-DE Gebhardt, S. Theis Maritime convective initiation of the severe thunderstorm of J.-B. Cohuet, R. Romero, V. 161 O 4 October 2007 in Mallorca: numerical experiments Homar, V. Ducroq, C. Ramis Multi-decadal dynamical downscaling of tropical cyclones 163 O in East Asia using spectrally nudged regional climate F. Feser, H. von Storch models D. Mastrangelo, K. Horvath, M. Observational and numerical analysis of a heavy 165 O M. Miglietta, A. Moscatello, A. precipitation event over southern Italy Riccio An Analysis of numerically simulated mesovortices and 167 O A. D. Schenkman, M. Xue tornado-like vorticies in mesoscale convective system EnKF Analysis of the 29 May 2004 Oklahoma City T. E. Thompson, L. J. Wicker, D. 169 O Supercell using Rapid-Scan Phased Array Radar Data E. Forsyth, M. I. Biggerstaff Sensitivity of quantitative precipitation forecast to soil K. van Weverberg, N. P. M. van 171 O moisture initialization, microphysics parameterization Lipzig, L. Delobbe, D. Lauwaet and horizontal resolution A comparison of transient impinging jet and cooling source B. C. Vermeire, L. G. Orf, E. 173 P downburst models Savory B. R. S. B. Basnayake, S. Das, M. Composite characteristics of severe thunderstorms over 175 P K. Das, M. Rahman, M. A. Bangladesh simulated by WRF-ARW Model Sarker, M.A.R. Akand The influence of boundary layer conditions on storm life 177 P M. Curic, D. Janc, N. Kovacevic cycles Numerical simulations of supercells over idealized 179 P P. Markowski, N. Dotzek orography Long-lasting deep convective systems in the Mediterranean M. Pasqui, S. Melani, B. Gozzini, 181 P basin: a model study F. Pasi Numerical simulation of tornado-scale vortices occurred in 183 P K. Tsuboki, A. Sakakibara a winter cold-air outbreak over the Sea of Japan An investigation of a severe multicellular storm in the 185 P U. Wissmeier, R. Goler tropics Forecasting skill study of different non-hydrostatic 187 P meteorological model configurations in severe A. Bertozzi, P. Randi convective events simulation 159 Page Type Abstract Title Author(s) Parameterization and development of statistical model for P N. Huseynov, B. Malikov meteorological elements of convective instability Characteristics of convective processes in inland Northeast F. Espejo, E. Alvarez, F. Cortes, 189 P Spain C. Lafragüeta High-Resolution Simulations of Convective Cold Pools over P. Knippertz, J. Trentmann, A. P the Northwestern Sahara Seifert A right flank supercell in Romagna; Splitting storm system 191 P P. Randi, A. Bertozzi case study Validation of deep convection in the convective-scale NWP P K. Wapler, A. Seifert, B. Ritter model COSMO-DE Generation of Windstorm in the Eastern Mountainous 193 P H. Choi, D. S. Choi Coast of Korea 160 5h European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY MARITIME CONVECTIVE INITIATION OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OF 4 OCTOBER 2007 IN MALLORCA: NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS J.B. COHUET1, R. ROMERO2, V. HOMAR2, V. DUCROCQ1, C. RAMIS2 1Météo France, 42 av. G. Coriolis 31057 Toulouse, France, 2 Universitat de les Illes Balears, Carrer de Valldemosa 07122 Palma de Mallorca, Spain, (15 September 2009) I. INTRODUCTION III. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The Mediterranean basin is regularly affected by Méso-NH simulations have been performed with severe weather associated with deep convection. Even if several initial conditions from ECMWF, ARPEGE and they are usually tied to coastal orography, some severe ALADIN, and confirm the crucial effects of initial state on thunderstorms develop and mature over the sea. A good and the numerical modeling. Failure of experiments initialized recent example is the severe thunderstorm that crossed the with ALADIN data is clearly due to an incorrect island of Mallorca in the afternoon of 4th October 2007. representation of the environment over the Mediterranean Generated early in the morning offshore of Murcia Sea. Experiments fed with ECMWF and ARPEGE present (southeastern Spain), this storm organized progressively into more accurate low-level flows and achieve simulations with a squall line structure with a northeastwards movement. more realistic evolutions. However, differences in the low- Arriving in Palma city, this squall line was accompanied by level temperature fields lead to a best convective triggering severe gusts, heavy rain and several F2-F3 tornadoes, with ARPEGE experiments, in which the front is associated leading to significant damages in the southwestern part of with a stronger convergence of winds. Moreover, differences the island and eventually to one fatality. pointed out in experiments performed with Méso-NH, WRF and MM5 with the same initial conditions indicate the An observational study of weather patterns favourable benefits of a multi-model approach, since each one is to such squall line development is presented in Ramis et al, characterized by its own physical and dynamical (2009). The triggering and evolution of convection in these parameterizations. kind of events depend on both synoptic and mesoscale features. Representing such interaction is a real challenge for The analysis of the ensemble of experiments leads to numerical models used in weather forecasting, all the more the conclusion that the low-level convergence appears to be since the squall line was triggered over the sea. in this case the key element to explain the triggering of deep convection. The position of a low-pressure area to the south of the Balearic archipelago in the lower troposphere is an important factor that improves the triggering location of the II. PRESENTATION OF RESEARCH simulated storm. The experiment performed with WRF forced by ECMWF analysis succeeds in reproducing the In order to better identify mechanisms responsible for squall line evolution with the best spatiotemporal the initiation and evolution of this severe thunderstorm, representation. In the morning, this simulation triggers a three mesoscale numerical models have been used (Méso- convective cell to the south of Murcia, over an area with NH, WRF and MM5) combined with several initial and significant wind convergence and characterized by a boundary conditions (from ECMWF, ARPEGE and pronounced convective instability. Later on, this ALADIN). All the experiments were achieved with a fine thunderstorm organizes in a linear structure and moves over resolution mesh (between 2 and 2.4 km) centred over the sea along a thermal boundary to reach Mallorca around Mallorca and no deep convection parameterization was 16 UTC (15:30 UTC in reality). The high sheared activated. Analyses rather than forecasts were used to environment resulting from an easterly low-level flow provide the most realistic initial and boundary conditions overlain by strong southerly winds appears to be necessary available. to sustain the squall line. The best simulations are expected to provide Of particular importance is that the MM5 model is not interesting comprehensive elements of squall lines dynamics able to trigger a convective cell offshore of Murcia, as and structure. This study also allows assessing initial and opposed to the other models. In order to attempt to remedy boundary conditions influences as well as model this failure to correctly simulate the event, two different parameterization impacts on the modeling framework. approaches have been considered. Since in the MM5 Another objective is to test simulation improvements by experiment, the lack of low-levels convergence seems to assimilating synthetically generated observations avoid an efficient convective triggering, the first corresponding to mesoscale features, in order to remedy the improvement was to assimilate pseudo-observations in order lack of data over the sea. The idea is to assimilate pseudo- to synthetically generate a convergence line. Such observations of plausible structures that are believed to be observations are inspired from an experiment with Méso-NH necessary for convective initiation. forced by ARPEGE analyses in which initial stages of the 161 5h European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY convective cell are well captured. Only wind pseudo- observations are provided in the morning, at several levels in the planetary boundary layer, in order to initiate convection. Data assimilation of these pseudo-observations by the nudging method results in a well located convective triggering necessary to the further realistic evolution of the squall line. Although the simulated squall line is slightly off to the west of Mallorca,the signature is very similar to observed radar reflectivities. The second approach was to explore the sensitivity of the MM5 reference simulation to the planetary boundary layer scheme, since on the whole domain, the convection develops later than with other models. The substitution of MRF scheme (Hong and Pan, 1996) -daily used in the Universitat de les Illes Balears forecasts- by ETA scheme (Janjic, 1994) leads to significant improvements in the FIG. 2: Vertical vorticity and horizontal wind at 200 m on domain simulation. With this later scheme, using a 1.5 order of indicated on FIG.1. closure and a prognostic equation to compute Turbulent Kinetic Energy, convection is favoured and the triggering of the squall line takes place with rather accurate To conclude, the success of a numerical simulation to spatiotemporal features. The lower diffusion of vertical capture a severe convective event with a maritime initiation velocity patterns and a better representation of the moisture closely depends on a conjunction of factors from distinct vertical profile in the lowest levels are crucial factors to this scales. On the 4th October 2007 event, in a favourable success.
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