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SEPTEMBER 8, 2016 Dollar Stores and Grocery: New Challenges A $45 BILLION SECTOR As we have noted many times before, US retailers at the high end and in the budget segment have outperformed in recent years, while those in the middle have been squeezed. It is what we have characterized as the Weinswig Hourglass model of retail. One notable aspect of this trend has been growth in the dollar-store segment. In this report, we analyze the sector’s growth, with a focus on the share these retailers have carved out in grocery and the headwinds they now face in this category. Our analysis focuses on the five biggest dollar-store chains in the US: Dollar This fiscal year, we expect the General, Dollar Tree, Family Dollar (which was acquired by Dollar Tree in top five US dollar-store chains to 2015), Fred’s and 99 Cents Only. Of these, only Dollar Tree sells items at a turn over some $47 billion. fixed, $1 price; 99 Cents Only sells mainly at 99.99 cents, but includes some higher-priced items, while the others sell at variable prices. We do not include other chains such as Five Below in our analysis here, as they are either minor players in the segment or less clearly defined as dollar stores. Source: shutterstock DOLLAR-STORE SECTOR GROWS 31% IN FOUR YEARS Here are our top-line takeaways on the sector: • This fiscal year, we expect the top five US dollar-store chains to turn over some $47 billion. Our estimates are based principally on consensus estimates from S&P Capital IQ. Throughout this report, fiscal years refer to years ending January. • Our analysis shows that the top five dollar-store chains grew sales by 31% between fiscal years 2012 and 2016, from $34 billion to $45 billion. • Annual sector growth has been slowing, however, from 11.2% in fiscal 2012 to an estimated 5.0% in fiscal 2017. DEBORAH WEINSWIG, MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY 1 [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. SEPTEMBER 8, 2016 Figure 1. Top Dollar Stores: Sales (USD Bil., Left Axis) and YoY % Change (Right Axis) 50 11.2 12 Sales YoY % Change 45 9.5 10 40 35 8 6.3 6.3 30 5.8 25 5.0 6 % USD Bil. 44.8 42.1 20 37.4 39.6 34.2 4 15 47.0 10 2 5 0 0 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY17 estimates are based on consensus estimates for Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Family Dollar and Fred’s, and on trailing-12-months data for 99 Cents Only (no consensus available). Source: S&P Capital IQ/Fung Global Retail & Technology Dollar General and Dollar Tree Dollar General and Dollar Tree dominate the sector. Dollar Tree completed dominate the dollar-store sector. its acquisition of Family Dollar in early July 2015; even with the acquisition, Dollar Tree still lags Dollar General fractionally. Fred’s is a borderline dollar store, given that it has a substantial pharmacy operation. In fiscal 2016, pharmacy contributed half of total revenues for Fred’s. Figure 2. Top Dollar Stores: Estimated Sales (USD Bil.) 2.0 1.9 2.2 1.7 2.0 99 Cents Only 2.0 10.7 20.8 Fred's 10.4 8.6 Family Dollar* 7.4 Dollar Tree** 18.9 22.1 16.0 Dollar General FY13 FY15 FY17E FY17 estimates are based on consensus estimates for Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Family Dollar (including within Dollar Tree after acquisition) and Fred’s, and on trailing-12-months data for 99 Cents Only (no consensus available). Dollar Tree includes a small element of revenue from Canada, where the company operated 225 stores as of January 2016. *Estimated for FY15. **Includes Family Dollar in FY17E. Source: S&P Capital IQ/Fung Global Retail & Technology DEBORAH WEINSWIG, MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY 2 [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. SEPTEMBER 8, 2016 Store portfolio expansion has underpinned growth in the sector: over five years, the major chains grew their combined total store base by 20.9%, to 27,476. This compares to the abovementioned 31% increase in sales at these five retailers over the same period. In July 2016, Dollar General acquired 41 former Walmart Express stores. Figure 3. Top Dollar Stores: Store Numbers % Change FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY12–FY16 Dollar General 9,937 10,506 11,132 11,789 12,575 26.5 Dollar Tree 4,351 4,671 4,992 5,367 5,954 36.8 Family Dollar 7,442 7,916 8,042 8,284 7,897 6.1 Fred’s 700 712 704 660 659 (5.9) 99 Cents Only 298 316 343 383 391 31.2 Total of the Above 22,728 24,121 25,213 26,483 27,476 20.9 Fiscal years ended January Source: Company reports AMERICANS BUY $29 BILLION OF GROCERIES FROM DOLLAR STORES US shoppers spent some $29.4 In calendar year 2015, Americans spent $1.2 trillion on core grocery billion on grocery categories categories across all retail channels. This included in-home food and at the major dollar-store beverages, household cleaning products, household paper products, chains in fiscal 2016. personal care products, and tobacco. We estimate that US shoppers spent some $29.4 billion, or 2.4% of the total, on grocery categories at the major dollar-store chains in fiscal 2016. That total will rise by 5.9%, to $31.1 billion, in the current fiscal year, we estimate. The dollar stores’ share of total grocery spend has been creeping up, but the sector remains a niche channel, and will account for only an estimated 2.5% of total core grocery spend this year. Source: shutterstock DEBORAH WEINSWIG, MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY 3 [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. SEPTEMBER 8, 2016 Figure 4. Top Dollar Stores: Estimated Grocery Sales (USD Bil., Left Axis) and Grocery Sales as % of Total Spending on Core Grocery Categories (Right Axis) Grocery Sales Share of Core Grocery Spend 35 3.0 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.4 30 2.2 2.5 2.0 25 2.0 20 % 1.5 USD Bil. 15 29.4 31.1 26.6 28.3 24.8 1.0 10 22.3 5 0.5 0 0.0 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E Core grocery categories are defined as in-home food and beverages, household cleaning products, household paper products, personal care products, and tobacco. Source: Company reports/US Bureau of Economic Analysis/Fung Global Retail & Technology Our analysis suggests that dollar To put these figures in context, the graph below shows Euromonitor stores are a bigger grocery International’s estimates for grocery sales made through various types of channel than convenience stores, grocery stores in 2015 (the company does not consider dollar stores to be and that they are roughly twice grocery stores). Our analysis suggests that dollar stores are a bigger as big as discounters such as Aldi. grocery channel than convenience stores, and that they are roughly twice as big as discounters such as Aldi. Figure 5. US Grocery Sector: Distribution of Sales, 2015 (USD Bil.) Convenience Discounters, $17 Stores, $26 Forecourt Retailers, $139 Supermarkets, Tradikonal $363 Retailers/ Specialists, $148 Hypermarkets, $290 Data are for retailers selling “predominantly groceries” and exclude dollar stores. Source: Euromonitor International/Fung Global Retail & Technology DEBORAH WEINSWIG, MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY 4 [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. SEPTEMBER 8, 2016 We estimate that grocery We estimate that, in fiscal 2016, some 66% of all sales at the major dollar categories accounted for some stores were in grocery categories—or “consumables,” as most of the 66% of all sales at the major retailers categorize them. This includes food, beverages, household dollar stores in fiscal 2016. cleaning products, beauty and personal care products, and (where relevant) tobacco. Dollar General sees the highest contribution from these categories, while the proportion at Fred’s is pushed down by its sizable pharmacy operation. Figure 6. Top Dollar Stores: Consumables Categories as Share of Total Sales, FY16 Dollar General 75.9% 99 Cents Only 66.0% Family Dollar 68.4% Dollar Tree 49.1% Fred’s 25.7% Source: Company reports DOLLAR STORES FACE CHALLENGES IN GROCERY Despite their success in carving out share in the grocery category, dollar stores face three near-term challenges: 1. Food-Price Deflation US food prices have fallen, impacting revenues in all grocery channels. In July 2016 (latest reported), total food at home prices were down 1.6% year over year according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Declining US exports have pushed down domestic prices of fresh-food categories such as beef and poultry, while a surplus has depressed dairy prices. Egg prices have slumped following an August 2015 price peak due to a shortage. Source: shutterstock DEBORAH WEINSWIG, MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY 5 [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. SEPTEMBER 8, 2016 The data below are for a six-month period to July. Figure 7.
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