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Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

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Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes Nov 02, 2015 By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena Guide: The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans and UBS. For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio. Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report. Summary Period: Monday October 26 to Friday October 30, 2015 Total Upgrades: 7 Total Downgrades: 24 Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 44.83%; Hold 43.10%; Sell 12.07% The Australian share market is being hit with stockbroker downgrades for individual stocks. No doubt this contributed to the rather lacklustre performance as the end of October approached. For the week ending Friday, 30th October 2015, FNArena registered seven upgrades (including two for OZ Minerals) and 24 downgrades. Many of the downgrades concern outperforming stocks such as APN Outdoor, BT Investment and REA Group, plus a handful of domestic gold producers, plus companies whose market updates couldn't match analysts' expectations, such as ANZ Bank, Dick Smith and Capitol Health. Gold producers Evolution Mining and Northern Star both received two downgrades during the week,FNArena as did ANZ Bank. Many of the downgrades in rating were accompanied by upgrades in targets and/or estimates. This signals the rating downgrades are inspired by lofty looking valuations. With major indices still in negative territory for the calendar year, clearly this indicates not all stocks are equal in this market. BT Investment tops the table of positive revisions to price targets with a 9% gain, followed by BlueScope Steel and APN Outdoor. On the negative side we find Dick followed by BlueScope Steel and APN Outdoor. On the negative side we find Dick Smith, Ten Network and Grange Resources leading the table. Tables for earnings estimates revisions are, as per usual, heavily dominated by energy stocks and miners. BlueScope Steel, BT Investment, Sirtex Medical, APN Outdoor and Australian Pharmaceutical Industries join the likes of AWE Ltd, OZ Minerals and Western Areas on the positive side. The negative side is being led by gold miner Perseus, followed by Ten Network, South32, Woolworths, Independence Group and Dick Smith. All with heavy downgrades. Even Drillsearch, on number ten for the week, was subjected to a near 9% downgrade to its forecasts. Luckily for the shareholders, Drillsearch is likely to join forces with Beach Energy, which should see synergies far outweighing short term profit downgrades. Drillseach nevertheless received a downgrade to Neutral during the week, from UBS. Upgrade AUSNET SERVICES ((AST)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/6/0 The regulator's draft decision for the Victorian regulated business was better than UBS expected and confirmed the broker's suspicions that market risk is often higher than regulatory risk. Revenues are basically locked in for the next five years. UBS upgrades Ausnet to Buy from Neutral given the attractive yield on offer. Target is raised to $1.52 from $1.43. FLEXIGROUP LIMITED ((FXL)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/2/0 Flexigroup will acquire Fisher & Paykel's NZ finance business for NZ$315m. F&P is a leading non-bank consumer financier in NZ, Macquarie notes, making it a complementary acquisition. The price looks a bit full but the broker acknowledges earnings accretion, reasonable synergies and strategic justification. With no organic growth in sight it is an acquisition Flexigroup needed to make. On current valuation and earnings upside form the acquisition Macquarie upgrades to Outperform, but the broker still prefers Pepper Group ((PEP)) in the space. Target slips to $2.85 from $2.86. INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED ((IPL)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by JP Morgan .B/H/S: 5/1/2 JP Morgan expects the coming year will transform the company, with the commissioning of the ammonia plant in the US marking the end of a period of elevated capital expenditure. Earnings from the project should generate a significant step up in cash flow, the broker maintains. JP Morgan upgrades to Overweight from Neutral. Target is raised to $4.40 from $3.20.FNArena MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED ((MGX)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/3/1 Mt Gibson's Sep Q report featured much lower than forecast costs at Koolan Island, allowing a Stage 3 mining campaign to go ahead at Acacia East. Shipments were impacted by bad weather at Geraldton but this will be picked up in the Dec Q, Macquarie notes. While Acacia East increases Macquarie's production forecast the impact on earnings is minimal. The focus for the broker is on the company's cash balance, which will be used to fund opportunities management is on the lookout for. As the stock is trading at a 35% discount to cash, Macquarie upgrades to Outperform. Target rises to 26c from 25c. OZ MINERALS LIMITED ((OZL)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS and Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by JP Morgan .B/H/S: 6/2/0 September quarter production delivered on consistency, UBS observes. The broker expects the company to achieve the upper end of guidance for 2015 of 126-131,000 tonnes copper, or even beat that. The broker returns the rating to Buy from Neutral after the recent pull-back in the share price, noting its balance sheet strength, cash flow and liquidity. Target is raised to $4.56 from $4.30. September quarter production was strong and, after making favourable adjustments to the cost profile over the medium term, JP Morgan's valuation is up significantly. Based on the attractive outlook for the balance sheet and potential for increased shareholder returns the broker upgrades to Neutral from Underweight. Target is raised to $4.05 from $3.00, despite a bearish view on copper prices. TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED ((TLS)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/5/2 After the investor briefing Morgans considers most of the bad news is now priced in and the outlook has stabilised. Any investment in a joint venture in the Philippines is not expected to be as much as previously feared. The company suggests less than US$1bn would be needed to put the JV in a positive position for cash flow. Morgans believes the risk/reward is positively skewed for Telstra and upgrades to Add from Hold. Target is steady at $5.93. Downgrade AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED ((AIZ)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/0/1 Credit Suisse updates forecasts following the release of September quarter passenger data. The airline's trans Tasman performance has lagged that of the Pacific island network. Short haul yield was flat versus the previous corresponding quarter. With the stock trading at a premium to the broker's assessment of fundamental value the rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Target is raised to NZ$2.50 from NZ$2.40. AUSTRALIAFNArena & NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP ((ANZ)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse and Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by JP Morgan .B/H/S: 3/4/1 FY15 results were modestly disappointing to Credit Suisse. The broker downgrades estimates by 1.0% and moves its rating to Neutral from Outperform. Target is lowered to $30 from $31. Credit Suisse now prefers the domestic and consumer oriented major banks, being Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)) and Westpac ((WBC)), particularly for their Australian mortgage re-pricing leverage. The FY15 result suggested to JP Morgan it is time to downgrade to Neutral from Overweight. FY16 forecasts are downgraded by 3.0%. The broker supports the decisions to prioritise profitability over growth but expects it will take time to turn around. The broker is positive on the margin stability exhibited in the second half but suspects recent divestments, difficult trading conditions and elevated cost growth have taken a toll on returns. Target is lowered to $31.59 from $33.82. APN OUTDOOR GROUP LIMITED ((APO)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/2/0 Morgans upgrades forecasts after feedback from industry players which indicates demand for both static and digital billboards is running near record levels. The broker upgrades 2015 and 2016 earnings estimates by 3.0% and 4.0% respectively and acknowledges there is potential for further upside in both yield and capacity utilisation. Yet, the rating is downgraded to Hold from Add after the recent strong share price performance. Target is raised to $4.46 from $4.04. ALACER GOLD CORP ((AQG)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/3/1 Alacer's Sep Q production was in line with Macquarie's forecast. The broker has nevertheless cut its Dec Q forecast given lower grades at Copler, and it will also be a quarter in which capex is ramped up. Delivery of the sulphide project offers risk and Macquarie believes Alacer is being over-valued against its gold junior peer group. Downgrade to Underperform. Target falls to $2.55 from $2.60. BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED ((BSL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 5/1/0 UBS is downgrading to Neutral from Buy as the stock has outperformed since it announced a review of its steel making operations and now factors in a potential turnaround in earnings from Port Kembla. Any further re-rating potential from an exit of raw steel production in Australia is unlikely in the near term, in the broker's view, despite the challenges.
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