MERNDA ON THE PARK
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ...... 3
Why Invest in Melbourne ...... 4
All About Mernda ...... 5
Socio – Economic Profile ...... 5
Location ...... 6
Infrastructure ...... 7
Sales Evidence ...... 11
Rental Return ...... 12
Media Releases ...... 13
Executive Summary
Mernda on the Park Estate is located 25 kilometers on the northern outskirts of Melbourne’s metropolitan district within the booming township of Mernda.
All homes are conveniently located within close proximity to public transport and the future Mernda Town Centre located on the Corner of Bridge Inn road and Plenty road. In addition, the estate is within a 10-minute drive from the Westfield Shopping Centre in Plenty Valley, a major driver of employment.
The area delivers a selection of elite schools including the prestigious Ivanhoe Grammar and Hazel Glenn Colleges comprising of three campuses; Kindergarten, Junior Campus and Senior Campus. The development comprises allotments ranging in size from 300m2 right through to 550m2. Each allotment is predominately level in topography throughout allowing for a sold building pad. Dwellings will be characterized by modern designs featuring four bedrooms, two bathrooms complete with double lock up garages where possible. Alternatively, smaller lots will comprise of 3 bedrooms, two bathroom houses with double lock up garages. All properties are finished to a full turnkey standard and inclusive of all ancillary improvements such as, landscaping, driveways, letterbox, clothesline and fencing. The house and land package prices will range from $370,000 - $480,000.
Why Invest in Melbourne?
Melbourne’s median house price grew circa 11.7% across 2015 and is forecast to become the biggest Australian capital city, increasing to almost 8 million by 2051. In comparison, that is the size of some of the world’s largest cities, New York, London, Hong Kong and Ho Chi Minh City.
The ABS forecast Victoria’s population to have grown by 99,371 (1.7%) in the past 12 months. Interstate migration into Victoria is continuing to set records with 10,200 new residents moving into Melbourne from other states and territories - this is an increase even on last year’s record number. By comparison, Queensland experienced the second highest interstate migration rate which saw 6,400 relocate to Queensland. Sydney experienced a 6,600 decrease in interstate migration as Sydney becomes more expensive and owners/investors are forced to explore other avenues to enter the property market.
Additionally, Melbourne experienced a net increase of 63,883 overseas migrants in 2015. A recent report conducted by Macro Plan Dimasi forecast that we will soon see 220,000 – 250,000 migrants cashed up and looking to buy houses during 2016, 2017, and 2018 (to put that into perspective, the whole of Australia produces only 200,000 new dwellings per annum). Melbourne’s overseas migrant demographic are predominately young, educated middle class owner/occupiers looking for a new start in Australia.
Leading up to the final weeks of 2015, Melbourne’s Auction Clearance rates were recording a strong 75%. This is a great sign considering that a clearance rate of 62% is considered to represent ‘market balance’. The quantity of listed properties, which gives a good gauge on current supply figures, also remains at low levels. In 2012 where the property market was seen as in oversupply, Melbourne had 55,000 listings on the market. RP Data’s February report illustrated we have below half that number in today’s supply numbers (26,797).
While population growth, auction clearance rates remain high and housing supply and, in particular, new housing supply remains low Melbourne can expect to be the next market in the cycle to take off, similar to what we’ve seen in Sydney.
About Mernda
Mernda is located approximately 25km north of Victoria’s capital city of Melbourne and is part of the scenic city of Whittlesea. The population Whittlesea City Council is forecast to 202,731 residents during 2016, and is set to grow to 333,702 residents by 2036.
In 2016, the total population of Mernda - Doreen was estimated to be 40,279 people. It is expected to increase by over 15,559 people to 55,832 by 2026, at an average annual growth rate of 2.79%. Australia’s population growth figure is circa 1.8% making Mernda – Doreen one of the country’s fastest growing areas. This is based on an increase of over 12,400 households during the period, with the average number of persons per household falling from 2.98 to 2.92 by 2026.
The City of Whittlesea is serviced by the Hume Freeway, Metropolitan Ring Road, Plenty Road and the South Morang railway line, with stations at Epping, Keon Park, Lalor, Thomastown and Melbourne’s CBD. The metropolitan train service provides less than 10-minute services during peak hours and 20-minute services in off-peak times.
There were 56,529 jobs located in the City of Whittlesea in the year ending June 2015, which was a 3.88% increase on the year before. The key employment sectors in the City of Whittlesea are manufacturing, construction, retail trade and health care, and to a lesser extent, education. There are two major industrial precincts, being Epping North, Epping West and Thomastown, which are approximately 10km away.
The Whittlesea Planning Scheme identifies the Mernda Town Centre being located on the southeast corner of Bridge Inn Road and Plenty Road, which is less than 2.5km away from the development. Once completed it will include 2 major supermarkets (Coles and Woolworths), over 100 other retail shops, cafes and service providers, a discount department store such as a Big W or Target. Plans for the Town Centre also include an integrated transport hub including bus services and an extension of the train line from South Morang, through Doreen to Mernda.
Mernda has an impressive 80% owner-occupiers living in the suburb and 65% are family households. Residents have approximately 14 schools, both primary and secondary to choose from. Residents are also within 3km of Ivanhoe Grammar, which is one of Victoria’s leading schools in student performance.
Socio – Economic Profile
Forecast Population Growth
55832 55892 52383
40279
2016 2021 2026 2031
Mernda to Melbourne CBD
Current & Future Infrastructure
Local Education
Primary Schools:
• Ivanhoe Grammar School (Plenty Campus) (approx. 2km) • Doreen Primary School (approx. 2km) • Doreen South Primary School (approx. 6km) • Mernda Primary School (approx. 4km) • St Joseph’s Parish Primary School (approx. 3.8km) • Laurimar Primary School (approx. 4km) • Yarrambat Primary School (approx. 4km) • South Morang Primary School (approx. 9km)
Secondary Schools:
• Ivanhoe Grammar School (Plenty Campus) (approx. 2km) • Plenty Valley Christian College (approx. 2km) • Ironbark Christian School (approx. 5km) • The Lakes South Morang P-9 School (approx. 6km) • Marymede Catholic College (approx. 6km) • Mill Park Secondary College (approx. 10km) • Whittlesea Secondary College (approx. 10km)
Universities:
• NMIT Epping (approx. 15km) • RMIT University Bundoora Campus (approx. 10km)
Ivanhoe Grammar
Ivanhoe Grammar is home to approximately 500 students and offers state of the art facilities. In 2014 there were 235 students who completed their VCE. Overall 34% of students achieved and ATAR of 90 or above placing them in the state’s top 10%. There were 53% of students who achieved and ATAR score of 80 and above, which has been consistent over the last 3 years.
Ivanhoe’s wide ranges of facilities are a main contributor to its ongoing success. They offer a Creative Arts Centre, which houses the schools Art, Design and Technology, Media, Visual Communication and Food Technology classrooms.
Their sporting facilities are second to none in the area with a fully equipped gym, synthetic hockey fields and tennis courts. The school also offers an AFL sized oval which plays home to a wide range of community based events. Ivanhoe Grammar also offers an Equestrian Centre with full riding facilities, which allows students to take lessons or compete on campus.
Ivanhoe Grammar is an active participant in the VCE Off Shore Program. The program is an exciting and innovative initiative, which allows students study their VCE and experience a western style of education without leaving their home country. The success of the VCE China program is illustrated in the results of recent graduates – 20% of students finished in the top 10% of students studying VCE and 50% were ranked in the top 20% of the state. Students are also given the opportunity to attain places in Australia’s leading universities.
Transport and Retail
Current & Future Retail Precincts
• Future Mernda Town Centre (approx. 2km) • Laurimar Town Centre (approx. 4km) • Westfield Plenty Valley Shopping Centre (approx. 10km) • Mernda Villiages (approx. 2km)
Transport Options
• Hurstbridge Train Station (approx. 8km) • South Morang Train Station (approx. 6.5km) • Epping station (approx. 9km) • Western Ring Road (approx. 8.5km) • Bus Routes - Route 520, Route 572, Route 562 (approx. 2km)
Future Mernda Town Centre
The Whittlesea Planning Scheme identifies the Mernda Town Centre being located on the southeast corner of Bridge Inn Road and Plenty Road, which is less than 2km away from the development. Once completed it will include 2 major supermarkets (Coles and Woolworths), over 100 other retail shops, cafes and service providers, a discount department store such as a Big W or Target. Plans for the Town Centre also include an integrated transport hub including bus services and an extension of the train line from South Morang, through Doreen to Mernda. The state government is currently in preliminary states of constructing the 8km of railway track from South Morang through to the Mernda Town Centre site. The rail extension itself is set to cost $600m and is set to start in 2017, and to be completed by 2019.
Comparable Sales Evidence
Address: Land Size: Price: Sale: Features: Photo:
4 bedrooms 26 Jackaroo Street, Mernda, 335m2 $395,000 Jan 2016 2 bathrooms 2 Car Garage
4 bedrooms 9 Halliday Road Mernda, 335m2 $420,000 Mar 2016 2 bathrooms 2 Car Garage
4 bedrooms 31 Morino Drive, Mernda 350m2 $405,000 Dec 2015 2 bathrooms 2 Car Garage
342 Bridge Inn Road, Mernda 312m2 $187,000 Nov 2015 Vacant Land
15 Connors Road, Mernda 335m2 $187,500 Nov 2015 Vacant Land
18 Heddle Parade, Mernda 339m2 $200,000 Dec 2015 Vacant Land
Rental Returns
$360 p/w Estimate from local real estate agents x 52 Weeks = $18,720 Annual Rent
$18,720 Annual Rent / $370,000 Purchase Price 5.0% Annual Rent Return
$390 p/w Estimate from local real estate agents x 52 Weeks = $20,280 Annual Rent
$20,280 Annual Rent / $395,000 Purchase Price 5.1% Annual Rent Return
$420 p/w Estimate from local real estate agents x 52 Weeks = $21,840 Annual Rent
$21,840 Annual Rent / $465,000 Purchase Price 4.7 % Annual Rent Return
Media Releases
Mernda Rail Extension construction to start next year, Victorian Government says By Guy Stayner (ABC) - 16 Feb 2016, 4:48pm
Construction of a $600 million rail extension in Melbourne's northeast is expected to start next year, the State Government says.
Premier Daniel Andrews today announced that scoping work for the Mernda Rail Extension was now complete. He said the project would officially call for expressions of interest tomorrow.
The specifications include building eight kilometres of track from South Morang to Mernda.
The project will include at least two new stations with the possibility of a third.
Mr. Andrews said it was an important development.
"We know that this is a growing corridor, one of our nation's fastest," he said.
"There's predicted to be 100 per cent increase in the population in this corridor by 2030."
Mr. Andrews said the project would be finished and operating in 2019.
Meanwhile, people packed a meeting at the Edithvale Lifesaving Club this afternoon against the Andrews Government's plan for an elevated rail line in Melbourne's southeast.
Mr. Andrews said a consultation process for that project would run the full length of this year.
Australians flock to Melbourne as Victoria becomes Australia's fastest growing state
The Age - June 2015
More than 95,000 Australians moved to Melbourne in the year to December, new figures show. Melbourne has become Australia's biggest-growing city and is set to overtake Sydney as the country's biggest city in 2056, according to the latest Bureau of Statistics projections.
And Victoria has overtaken Western Australia to become Australia's fastest-growing state.
New figures from the bureau show Victoria gained an extra 101,500 residents in the year to December, and Melbourne an extra 95,600. At 1.8 per cent, Victoria's growth rate surpassed Western Australia's 1.6 per cent and the 1.4 per cent recorded in NSW and Queensland, which was the Australian average. South Australia grew 0.9 per cent, Tasmania 0.3 per cent, the Northern Territory 0.4 per cent and the Australian Capital Territory 1.1 per cent.
Melbourne's gain allowed it to further narrow the population gap with Sydney, whose population climbed 84,200. Bureau of Statistics projections have Melbourne overtaking Sydney to become Australia's biggest city in 2056. In December greater Melbourne housed 4.4 million residents and the bureau says this population will almost double to 8.2 million by 2056.
The figures show Victoria pulling in far more migrants from the rest of Australia than any other state. In the year to December Victoria gained a net 9340 new arrivals from interstate. Queensland gained a net 5600 and every other state lost population to interstate migration. NSW suffered net emigration of 5570.
South Australians were particularly keen to move to Victoria, with a net 2100 crossing the border in the year to December, almost as many as the 2750 who came from NSW. A net 1400 came from Western Australia.
Job vacancy figures released at the same time paint Victoria's jobs market as one of the best in the nation, with 4.8 unemployed people searching for each vacant job, a result only bettered by NSW which has 4.4 unemployed per vacancy. The odds of finding a job are far worse in Western Australia (5.2 unemployed per vacancy), Queensland (5.6), South Australia (7.5), and Tasmania (8.5).
Nationally job vacancies are growing in real estate (up 28 per cent in the past year), finance (up 11 per cent) and retail trade (up 6 per cent). Vacancies are falling in mining (down 29 per cent), manufacturing (down 8 per cent) and construction (down 5 per cent).
The national population growth rate of 1.4 per cent is the slowest since 2011. Australia had fewer births than at any time since 2006. Around 289,000 Australians left Australia to live overseas in 2014, the biggest number on record.
Melbourne house median hits record $669,000: REIV
Property Observer - February 2015.
Melbourne's median house price hit $669,000, up 5% on the September quarter after price increases in inner, middle and outer suburbs, according to the latest REIV quarterly results.
"Inner Melbourne increased by 11.7% for the year with middle Melbourne up by 13.2% and outer Melbourne at 8.9%," REIV Chief Executive Officer Enzo Raimondo said today.
Overall Melbourne house prices were up 11.7% compared with 2013.
The December quarter median house price in regional Victoria was at new records too, at $344,000, up 5.5% on September.
December Quarter 2014 Median Prices
Metro Melbourne Dec-14 Quarter Quarterly change Sep-14 Quarter Annual change House $669,000 5.3% $635,000 11.7% Unit $511,500 1.6% $503,500 5.7%
Source: REIV
Regional Victoria Dec-14 Quarter Quarterly change Sep-14 Quarter Annual change House $344,000 5.5% $326,000 5.8% Unit $257,000 4.0% $247,000 3.0%
Source: REIV
This graph shows median house and unit prices in Melbourne over the past decade in seasonally
Melbourne growth to stand out in 2016: HSBC's Paul Bloxham
Melbourne will see the highest price growth of any capital city next year, HSBC has forecast. In the latest HSBC Australia Downunder Digest report, HSBC Australia chief economist Paul Bloxham forecasts 4% to 8% price growth in Melbourne for 2016, after 7% to 8% growth in 2015.
Bloxham expects that in 2015, Melbourne and Sydney will "continue to outpace the rest of the nation", noting that from its mid-2012 trough, Melbourne's housing prices have increased by 20%.
However, Bloxham does not raise the prospect of a housing bubble in Melbourne as he did for Sydney, where HSBC predicts prices could fall by 2% in 2016 when they expect interest rates to increase.
He also noted the impact of foreign buyers on demand for Australian property, explaining that Foreign Investment Review Board figures "suggest a strong rise in foreign investment in Australian housing in 2014, with particular strength in investment in new dwellings." (see chart below).
"Much of the interest from foreign buyers is in the Sydney and Melbourne new apartment markets," writes Bloxham.
While Bloxham notes that foreign investment "is only a relatively small proportion of overall housing turnover", it is "likely to be having some effect on housing prices".
Victoria, which has seen the highest dwelling approvals of any state since 2009, is likely to see continued strength in the construction sector, according to Bloxham.
"As Australia's growth rebalances away from the mining states towards the south-eastern states – of New South Wales and Victoria – the strongest ramp-up in construction should be expected in these states," states the report.
5 key suburbs across Australia to watch in 2016: Terry Ryder
New growth stars will emerge in 2016. You’re most likely to find them in Brisbane, Melbourne, regional New South Wales and regional Queensland, although others such as Adelaide and Hobart may put their hands up.
Here are five areas I think are worth watching as we get into the New Year. These are all places that should produce price growth in 2016, on the back of serious momentum with rising sales activity in their markets.
1 Oxenford and the northern growth corridor, QLD:
The Gold Coast is now the clear national leader among the Local Government Areas of Australia. It has the most growth suburbs, by a wide margin.These rising suburbs are found right across Gold Coast city, but the growth corridor stretching north from the Gold Coast towards Brisbane is the standout area, with growth suburbs either side of the Pacific Motorway.
Oxenford stands out, with sales rates lifting from 80-90 per quarter last year to 130-135 in the past two quarters. Other growth suburbs in this precinct include Coomera, Upper Coomera, Pimpama and Ormeau.
2 Lalor and Whittlesea, VIC:
The focus of Melbourne’s up-cycle has switched increasingly from the middle market to the outer suburbs, where affordability and good infrastructure are key drivers.
The Whittlesea LGA in the northern suburbs is leading the way, headed by the suburb of Lalor (median house price $400,000), where sales rates have increased from around 70 per quarter last year to above 100 more recently.
Other growth suburbs in this precinct include Epping, Mill Park, Doreen, Mernda and Thomastown.
3 Beenleigh and Logan City, QLD:
Logan City, which borders the Gold Coast to the south and Brisbane City to the north, has led the revival of Greater Brisbane markets in 2015. It has more growth suburbs than any other precinct in the Brisbane metropolitan area, headed by Beenleigh, the administration centre for the LGA, where house sales have increased steadily over the past 12 months or so.
Another standout suburb in Logan City is affordable Eagleby, where sales in the past four quarters have increased from 59 to 65 to 95 to 102.
4 Forster-Tuncurry, NSW:
The Great Lakes LGA in the Mid North Coast region of New South Wales is a standout performer is this latest survey for The Price Predictor Index.
Residential sales in Forster, about 300km north of Sydney, have risen from 106 to 114 to 139 to 152 to 155 in consecutive quarters, while neighbour Tuncurry has recorded a similar pattern.
5 Point Cook and Wyndham City, VIC:
Another example of the emergence of the affordable outer ring suburbs of the Melbourne metropolitan area is Wyndham City in the south-west heading towards Geelong.
A number of suburbs have strong growth trajectories, headed by the developing suburb of Point Cook, where quarterly sales in the past 18 months have been 289, 313, 350, 396, 395 and 420.
Wyndham Vale is another standout market in this precinct, with quarterly sales levels lifting from 85-90 about 18 months ago to around 140 in the September 2015 Quarter.