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Wollert PSP 1070 Wollert PSP 1070 Activity Centre and Employment Analysis as Input to Precinct Structure Plan Prepared for Growth Areas Authority and City of Whittlesea by Essential Economics Pty Ltd J uly 2012 Authorship Report stage Author Date Review Date Draft report Matt Lee 28 March 2012 Nick Brisbane 30 March 2012 Final report Nick Brisbane 18 July 2012 Sean Stephens 19 July 2012 Disclaimer Although every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material and the integrity of the analysis presented herein, Essential Economics Pty Ltd accepts no liability for any actions taken on the basis of the contents of this report. Contact details For further details please contact: Essential Economics Pty Ltd 96 Pelham Street Carlton Victoria 3053 Australia PH 61 3 9347 5255 FAX 61 3 9347 5355 EMAIL [email protected] WEB www.essentialeconomics.com ABN 92 079 850 427 Project reference: 11174 Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................ i 1 Introduction................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ........................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 PSP Requirements ................................................................................................................................................ 1 1.3 Information Inputs ................................................................................................................................................ 2 1.4 This Report............................................................................................................................................................ 3 2 Regional Context Analysis .............................................................................................................. 4 2.1 Urban Development Trends in City of Whittlesea ................................................................................................ 4 2.2 Future Urban Growth ........................................................................................................................................... 9 2.3 Capacity Population Epping North ...................................................................................................................... 11 2.4 Transport Infrastructure ..................................................................................................................................... 11 2.5 Melbourne North Growth Corridor Plan............................................................................................................. 12 2.6 Activity Centre Planning ..................................................................................................................................... 14 2.7 Summary ............................................................................................................................................................. 21 3 Wollert PSP Context .................................................................................................................... 22 4 Implications for Wollert PSP ........................................................................................................ 28 5 Residential Development Outcome ............................................................................................. 29 5.1 Land Area Calculations ....................................................................................................................................... 29 5.2 Dwelling Yield ..................................................................................................................................................... 30 5.3 Estimate of Population Capacity ......................................................................................................................... 31 5.4 Summary ............................................................................................................................................................. 32 6 Activity Centre Analysis ............................................................................................................... 33 6.1 Estimate of Future Retail Expenditure ................................................................................................................ 34 6.2 Market Share Analysis ........................................................................................................................................ 35 6.3 Supportable Retail Floorspace ............................................................................................................................ 37 6.4 Activity Centre Hierarchy .................................................................................................................................... 45 6.5 Scenario Analysis – Impact of Changes to Aurora NTC ....................................................................................... 50 6.6 Comparison of Schemes ..................................................................................................................................... 55 6.7 Non-Retail Commercial Development Potential ................................................................................................. 57 6.8 Land Budget Requirements ................................................................................................................................ 59 6.9 Summary ............................................................................................................................................................. 59 7 Employment Precinct Analysis ..................................................................................................... 61 7.1 Regional Employment Land Context ................................................................................................................... 61 7.2 Industrial Land Provision .................................................................................................................................... 65 7.3 Employment Provision in Epping North-Wollert ................................................................................................ 65 7.4 Potential Development Outcomes at Wollert Employment Precinct ................................................................. 66 7.5 Employment Outcomes ...................................................................................................................................... 67 7.6 Access to Employment in Surrounding Region ................................................................................................... 69 7.7 Summary ............................................................................................................................................................. 69 WOL LERT PSP 1070 ACTIVI TY CENTRE AND EMPLOY MENT ANALYSIS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1) Wollert PSP Development Context Wollert PSP is located in the City of Whittlesea at the northern edge of Melbourne’s metropolitan region, and represents an extension to the Epping North growth corridor. The City of Whittlesea is experiencing rapid population growth associated with new housing development. Currently most of this development activity is occurring in the Plenty Valley corridor (including South Morang, Mernda and Doreen), although development capacity in the corridor is forecast to be exhausted over the next five or so years. As a result, further urban growth in Whittlesea will be concentrated in Epping North. The Wollert PSP covers a total land area of approximately 1,433ha, and extends from Craigieburn Road East on the southern boundary to Summerhill Road in the north, and from Curly Sedge Creek in the west to the E6 reservation in the east. Approximately 963ha of land is identified as being available for urban development, with a further 232ha of land designated for employment purposes. The proposed employment precinct involves land in the Farming Zone, which is affected by buffers from the Hanson Quarry to the east. The Melbourne North Growth Corridor Plan identifies a Major Town Centre (MTC) to be located in the Wollert PSP area, to serve residents in Wollert and in Epping North to the south. This MTC designation does not anticipate the current proposal for the Aurora Northern Town Centre (NTC) to accommodate more significant retail development, including a major non-food anchor in the form of a discount department store. Other smaller centres in Epping North will serve localised demand for weekly grocery and other neighbourhood-level retailing, and are not likely to affect development outcomes in Wollert. 2) Key Issues A number of issues have been identified as relevant for future development of the Wollert PSP: 1 The precinct is likely to have an ‘internalised catchment’, with limited opportunity for incoming retail expenditure from beyond the PSP area. 2 A more significant retail role for the Aurora NTC has the potential to affect the scale of retail activity that might be supported in the Wollert PSP, and the location for any higher-order activity centre. 3 The number, scale and location of smaller centres in the Wollert precinct will depend upon the size of the MTC, the location of this higher-order centre, the planned road network, the distribution of dwellings across the PSP area, and other
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