Kurdistan Region - Iraq Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research University of Zakho ISSN: 2410-7557

Journal of University of Zakho

B - Humanities

Volume 4 December Number 2 2016 Journal of University of Zakho B - Humanities

Volume 4 December Number 2 2016 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B), No.2, 2016 ISSN: 2410-7549

Contents

- Teaching Reading and Summarising; a Lesson Focus on Reading and Summary Writing Aimed to EAP Intermediate Students Shaima Ahmed Hassan & Deman Kareem Kareem ……………………...... …..………… 25

- Business Failure Prediction using Sherrod and Kida Models: Evidence from Banks Listed on Iraqi Stock Exchange (2011 - 2014) Islam S. T. Babela and Renas I. Mohammed …………….….……………………………………..... 35

Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 25-34, 2016 ISSN: 2410-7549

Teaching Reading and Summarising; a Lesson Focus on Reading and Summary Writing Aimed to EAP Intermediate Students

Shaima Ahmed Hassan & Deman Kareem Kareem Dept. of English, College of Basic Education, University of Duhok, Kurdistan region-Iraq (Accepted for publication: August 31, 2016)

Abstract Academic writing has a significant role in the area of higher education, both in students’ understanding of course content and the consequent assessment of students’ knowledge. This research aims to present a brief overview of reading and summary writing then an evaluation of teaching materials being used in a lesson on reading and summary writing together with a detailed commentary of the lesson plan will be presented. Keywords: Lesson plan, academic Reading & Summary writing 1. Introduction Moreover, academic writing is used to express any studies have been done to illustrate learned knowledge in a particular subject area. It M the role of Academic writing in the is mainly assumed for learning development, or field of higher Education. Recent studies have for course assessment purposes and the same highlighted the importance of teaching academic principles apply to publication of academic writing skills to university students (Ganobsick- papers (Britton, 1979). Internationally, academic Williams, 2004). The term summary writing is a writing and its theories are evident or major aspect of academic writing and is understandable in Australia, South Africa and normally linked to academic reading through Northern Europe; however the United States has note taking (johns, 1988). developed substantially in this field. Institutions This research aims to present a brief in America started providing their students with overview of reading and summary writing then writing support since the late of the Nineteenth an evaluation of teaching materials being used in Century (Ibid). In response, developments and a lesson on reading and summary writing theories in academic writing discussed and together with a detailed commentary of the published in the United States since 1960s lesson plan will be presented. A certain (Grabe and Kaplan, 1996). Consequently, evaluation checklist is developed for selecting Britain started providing their students with materials for this lesson based on Byrd, 2001; writing support between 1967 and 1974 (Jordan, Cunningsworth, 1995; Daoud & Celce-Murcia 1997). 1979, Krashen, 1997; Lee, 2003; Skieerso, It was recognised long time ago that both 1991; and Salataci & Akyel‟s, 2002 work. reading and writing are closely integrated skills Since there are many materials used in this and are linked to each other (Krashen, 1984). research, a brief explanation of each material has This integration is considered as a fundamental been provided before going to the evaluation characteristic of the target academic situation in point. After evaluating the materials used in this which students normally read books and articles, lesson plan, a detailed explanation on the take notes, summarise, and then start writing rationale of choosing these materials will be their essays and theses. In the real practice the highlighted. After that the teaching methods link between reading and writing is normally being used in exploiting these materials will be involved. Though, in some cases the focus might provided. Finally, a detailed commentary on be on several reading strategies and skills such designing a lesson plan will be offered. as skimming, scanning, and predicting and then the resulting exercises usually involve writing 2. A Brief Overview of Critical Reading and (Jordan, 1997). Reading for academic purposes Summarising is a complex subject. However, there is always a Academic writing is very important for all basic feature which is reading for a purpose. students and it is considered a wide umbrella Reading for a purpose could be the starting point concept. There are various approaches and for other considerations. Obviously, there are practice types for academic writing. These many different reasons and purposes behind approaches depend on different issues such as students‟ reading, such as to get information, to the purpose and type of writing, or they simply understand some ideas and theories, to realise depend on personal preference (Jordan, 1997).

25 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 25-34, 2016

the authors‟ different views or to seek for some for this lesson an evaluation checklist has been evidence (ibid). Reading to write tasks have designed as a criterion for selecting materials been widely observed in many university based on Cunningsworth, 1995; Byrd, 2001; settings. An example of reading to write tasks is Skieerso, 1991; Lee, 2003; Krashen, 1997; summarising which has been defined as „the Salataci & Akyel, 2002; and Daoud & Celce- process of synthesising and organising Muricia‟s, 1979 work (see Appendix 2). The individual idea units in to a summary or checklist covers three main points: the first point organised series of related general ideas‟ (Irwin, focuses on the language content which measures 1986, pp.5). Julley (1994) believes that summary the extent to which the contents of the materials writing depends on two important skills: first, are appropriate for the learners specially the the ability to read the text with the whole vocabulary which should be evaluated clearly in understanding; second, the ability to write down order to make materials understandable for what has been read shortly. He also adds that learners. The second point concentrates on the since writing summary depends on a clear context of the materials and the extent to which understanding of the text, there is a need for materials are suitable, integrated, interesting and accurate note taking. Casazza (1993) states that organised for the learners. The final point to write a good summary, one needs to be able to focuses on the methods and approaches that are understand the whole text, select the most followed by the teachers to present and teach the important information, reduce the minor and materials. redundant details, combine similar ideas in to The materials that have been used for this categories and write on their own words. lesson plan for practicing summarising skills consist of one text and two handouts related to 2.1 Materials Used in the Lesson and the the topic. The hand-outs give students Rationale for their Selection instructions on how to read and write their According to McGrath (2002), materials have summary. It is also worth mentioning that all a wide sense; they could be real objects such as selected materials are from the Centre for pencil, board, projector etc. which can be English Language Education (CELE) at the exploited successfully for the process of University of Nottingham/United Kingdom. This language learning, or they could be paper-based gives the materials more accuracy, reliability, materials such as textbooks, handouts, computer and validity. software, articles and recordings which have Three materials for this research have been been specially chosen for teaching and learning chosen according to the aims of the lesson. The by either the classroom teacher, teacher-written content of the materials includes useful hand materials or learner generated materials. outs. The first handout (See Appendix 3/1) Material evaluation, on the other hand, is a presents a brief explanation about summarising, way which implies measuring the value of its definition and structure. This hand out materials. It also covers making judgments about introduces the learners to the term summary, the the influence of the materials on students, information that should be included in a teachers, and the administrators who will be summary and how the summary is different from using them. Material evaluation also tries to the original work. While the second hand out measure the materials according to reliability, (See Appendix 3/2) covers the main steps of credibility and validity (Tomlinson, 2003). writing summary. This handout is important as it Furthermore, two main factors should be taken enables learners to follow certain steps to into account in selecting and evaluating summarise a text. The final handout is a text materials which are the effectiveness and the which is also taken from CELE. In this handout appropriateness of the materials in order to students are required to read and summarise the achieve the aim and the purpose of the course for text. learners and teachers (Grave, 1996). Another important point has been mentioned by Swain 2.2 Methodology Used for Exploitation of the 1985 regarding materials, that they should give Materials learners the chance to use the target language to 2.2.1 General Approach achieve communication purpose in the For the purpose of this research and for the classroom. organisation of materials in the lesson plan, a Before selecting materials, the teachers task-based approach has been developed. The should use specific selecting criteria. Therefore, task-based approach was first developed in India

26 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 25-34, 2016

by N. S. Prabhu in the 1980s. The nature of this followed to teach and enhance students‟ method is that when students are given a task, summarisation abilities. Hyland (2007) defines they engage in groups and start to discuss the genre as a group of texts which share similar text with the group‟s members in order to select discoursal aspects that are easily recognised by important information and to understand the text. members of a community. Sidaway (2006) used The term task refers to an activity where the the term „the magnificent seven‟ to classify target language is used by learners for genre into: recount, narrative, explanation, communicative purpose in order to achieve an information report, procedure, discussion and outcome (Willis, 2002). In addition, Nunan exposition. Each genre may present itself in (2006) illustrated that tasks have non-linguistic various text forms. results, then he defines task as a piece of Based on Halliday‟s (1994) Systemic classroom activity that requires learners in Functional Linguistics, a genre-based approach comprehending, producing, and progressing for teaching L2 writing focuses on the their skills in the target language while their conventions of a particular text type and it helps focus is on meaning rather than on form. students to understand the purpose of their Moreover, Willis (1996) found that the writing, the audience, and the organization of the framework of the task based approach can be text. Furthermore, Hyland (1994) believes that divided into four phrases: pre-task, task, task- genre-based writing instruction has significant cycle, and language focus (post-task). Pre –task emphases on scaffolding and collaboration. provides the introduction of the topic to learners In some empirical studies the role of genre under the teacher‟s guidance. The teacher makes based approach has been shown as an approach students memorise and/or write words and which helps to enhance the students‟ ability in phrases from pre-task activities. In the task-cycle constructing narrative, expository, and students get opportunity to express their ideas argumentative essays. Therefore, it is assumed and communicate with other learners while that this approach might similarly benefit doing the task by using the language that they students‟ summarisation performance. If already know. Most of the time learners do the students have a clear understanding of how a task in pairs or small groups and prepare to source text is structured, it would be easier for represent their performance to the whole class by them to differentiate between major and minor reporting what they have done. Task-based points and to create ideas in a more active way approach also suggests using tasks as a key (Kongpetch, 2006 and Cheng, 2008). element in the language classroom because they 3. Lesson Plan offer the best context for learners to activate 3.1 Lesson Description their process of acquiring the target language The lesson plan in this paper is designed for (Shehadeh, 2005). Larsen Freeman (2000) 12 intermediate students (6 from Iraq, 3 from mentions the advantages of task based approach China, 2 from Saudi Arabia, and 1 from Japan) because it provides opportunities for students to as a group of students studying at Centre of interact frequently in groups. English language education in the University of Due to the materials that have been selected Nottingham. The purpose behind this lesson is to for the purpose of this research, task-based help students write an assignment of 1000-1500 approach is considered as a main method of words about “students‟ life in Nottingham”. This teaching this lesson as it gives the learners lesson plan is based on two main approaches: opportunities to interact and communicate with first, task-based approach as a general approach each other collaboratively through working in which helps students to interact with each other groups or in pairs by doing some activities such in groups while doing activities; second, genre- as problem solving, sharing opinions, based approach as a supplementary approach transferring and selecting information or task which enhances students‟ ability in writing a completion activities. A detailed explanation of summary. Also the purpose behind designing such activities will be presented in 3.1. this lesson plan is to improve students‟ ability in 2.2.2 Supplementary Approach both reading and summarising skills. The lesson There are three main approaches for plan consists of eight stages: introduction, academic writing which are process approach, introducing summarising steps, handing in text product approach and genre-based approach. In stage, reading and discussion, highlighting this research the genre-based approach has been

27 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 25-34, 2016

vocabulary, creating ideas, writing key words more satisfied with their work (Johnson, and finally writing a summary. Johnson, and Smith, 1991). In the introduction the teacher starts the After having the students discuss the task lesson by introducing the students to the topic of among themselves, the teacher will move to the lesson, namely reading and summary writing down the key vocabulary of the text on writing, by providing a handout (see the board. The purpose behind this activity is to Appendix2/1) which covers a brief explanation make sure that the students understand the of summery writing. Then the teacher will ask meaning of the key vocabulary in the text based them to look at the handout and to work on the on cunningsworth‟s checklist (1995). answers together. Based on Sidaway (2006), the Once key vocabulary have been highlighted, purpose of this handout is to introduce summary the teacher will ask the learners to go through to the learners and give them a brief explanation, the steps of writing the summary again and read information, and discussion about summarising. the text, then select the main ideas and Introducing summarising steps basically is a supporting ideas from the text. This stage will second practice stage in which the teacher will help them discover the main ideas of the text. provide students with another handout (see Here students practise an academic reading Appendix 2/2) which covers the steps of writing strategy which is skimming for the main ideas. a summary, and then will give them time to take Then, the teacher will ask them about the topic a look at the steps and read them carefully. based sentences and supporting information or the on both Hyland, (1994) and Widod‟s, (2006) examples; by doing this the teacher will make views, the purpose behind selecting this material sure whether they have selected the right is to enable students to understand the purpose information from the text or not. Here the and the procedures of writing summary and the importance of reading and selecting information organisation of each step. is highlighted. As mentioned in the previous Once students have covered the steps of section, there are many reading skills books that writing summary, the emphasis on the text stage focus on reading for information so they always will start. The teacher will give them the text give practice to various strategies such as (see Appendix3/3) to read and do the above skimming scanning and prediction (Jordan, 1980 procedures and steps. This stage is more and Wallace, 1980). After choosing the main prominent in the product or genre approaches to information from the text, the learners will work writing, and will help to raise students‟ in pairs to compare, transfer and share their ideas awareness of the conventions of typical tasks of together. To make sure that the whole class get different genres. Before reading the text, the the required information, main ideas and teacher will start asking the students some supporting ideas, the teacher will ask them questions regarding the text which include some questions related to the text in order to make questions about the topic and the name of the sure that they have the right information. Pair author. The purpose behind this is to raise work is considered as an effective technique students‟ awareness of the referencing, to which lets the learners share opinions and identify the features and the language they have information together in a stress free environment in common, to raise their awareness of the (Brumfit, 1984). features of the text and to provide them with After checking the information, the teacher expressions they can use in their own writing. will ask the students to write down the key Once students get enough information about vocabulary of the text. This stage will enable the text, the teacher will move to the next stage learners to think and write key words and ideas which is giving learners time to discuss the task about the text. together in groups. According to Heller, Keith Finally, the teacher will ask them to transfer and Anderson (1991) working collaboratively in the key words and ideas to a summary of the groups helps students to learn complex skills text. Before starting to write the summary, the through sharing their ideas and knowledge as teacher should advise the students to use linking they solve a problem together. Individual group words to link the main ideas together. Also members can also learn explanation and reminding them about paying attention to the justification from one another. Students learn grammatical and sentence structure will be more about what they were taught when they are helpful. Then the teacher will give them time to actively involved in groups; they will also be write the summary. The purpose of this stage is to raise the students‟ awareness of integrating

28 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 25-34, 2016

the two skills together through transferring the Hyland, K. (2007). Genre pedagogy: language, ideas and key words which have been chosen literacy and L2 writing instruction. Journal of second from the text and write them as a summary as language writing 16 (3): 148-64. based on Cunningsworth‟s 1995 checklist. Heller, Keith, and Anderson. (1992). Teaching problem solving through cooperative grouping. Am. 4. Conclusion J. Physics. 60(7): 627-636. Both reading and summary writing are two Irwin, J. (1986). Teaching Reading integrated skills that play an important role in Comprehension Processes. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: different types of genres. Text summarising Prentice-Hall. represents an important writing genre. The Jolly, D. (1994). Writing Tasks. Cambridge: ability to critically read the passage and Cambridge University Press. summarise it is an essential language skill. EAP Johns, A. M. (1988). Reading for summarising: an students are often frightened of summary tasks approach to text orientation and processing. Reading for EAP texts. However, if the summarising skill in a foreign language, 4(2). is taught systematically, and reading skill also Jordan, R. R. (1980). Looking for information. developed, the task of summarising texts will London: Longman. become less confusing. Jordan, R. R. (1997). What‟s in a name? English The purpose behind creating this lesson was for specific purposes, 16 (1). to help the learners to be able to read different Johnson, D. W., Johnson, R. T., and Smith, K. A.1991. Cooperative Learning: Increasing College texts critically and then write a summary about a Faculty Instructional Productivity. ASHE-FRIC related text named, „Students life in Higher Education Report No.4. Washington, D.C.: Nottingham‟. School of Education and Human Development, References George Washington University. Byard, P. (2001). Textbooks: Evaluation and Kongpetch, S. (2006). Using a genre-based selection and analysis for implementation. In Celce- approach to teach writing to Thai students: a case Muricia, M. Teaching English as a second or foreign study. Prospect 21(2): 3-33. language, 3rd ed. Boston: Heinle & Heinle. Krashen, S, d. (1984). Writing: Research, Theory, Brumfit, C. (1984). Communicative methodology and Application. Oxford: Pergamon. in language teaching: the roles of fluency and Krashen, S. (1997). Does free voluntary reading accuracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. lead to academic language? Journal of intensive Britton, J. (1970). Language and Learning. New English studies, 11, 1-18. York. Penguin. Larsen-Freeman, D. (2002). Techniques and Cunningsworth, A. (1995). Choosing Your principles in language teaching. Oxford: Oxford Coursbook. Oxford: Heinemann. University Press. Cheng, F. W. (2008). Scaffolding language, Lee, J.F. & VanPatten, B. (2003). Making scaffolding writing: a genre approach to teaching communicative language teaching happen. Boston: narrative writing. Asian EFL Journal 10(2): 167-911. McGraw-Hill. Casazza, M. E. (1993). Using model of direct McGrath, Ian. (2002). Materials Evaluation and instruction to teach summary writing in a college Design for Language Teaching. Edinburgh: reading class. Journal of Reading. 37(3): 202-8. Edinburgh University Press. Daoud, A. M. & Celce-Muricia, M. (1979). Nunan, D. (2006) Task-Based Language Teaching Selecting and evaluating textbooks. In Celce-Moricia, in the Asia context: Defining „task‟. Asian EFL M. & McIntosh, L. Teaching English as a second or Journal 8:3: 12-18. foreign language. New York: Newbury House. Skierso, A. (1991). Textbook selection and Grabe, W. And Kaplan, R. (1996). Theory and evaluation. In Celce-Muricia, M. Teaching English as practice of writing. London. Longman. a second or foreign language, Boston: Heinle & Granobscik-Williams, L. (2004). A Report on the Heinle. Teaching of Academic Writing in UK Higher Salataci, R. & Akyel, A. (2002). Possible effects Education. University of Warwick. Unpublished of strategy instruction on L1 and L2 readding. research project. Reading in Foreign language, 14(1), 1-17. Haliday, M. K. 1994. An introduction to Sidway, R. (2006). The genre-based approach to functional Grammar. London: Edward Arnold. teach writing. In English! Spring issue: 24-7. Hyland, K. (1994). Hedging in Academic writing Shehadeh, A. (2005). Task-based Language and EAP textbooks. English for specific purposes, Learning and Teaching: Theories and applications. In 13(3). Edwards, C., and Willis, J. (eds.) 2005. Teachers Exploring Tasks in English Language Teaching. Palgrave Macmillan.

29 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 25-34, 2016

Swain, M. (1985). „Communicative Competence: some roles of comprehensible input and Wallace, M. J. (1980). Study Skills in English. comprehensible output in its development‟ in S. Gass Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. and C. Madden (eds) Input in Second Language Willis, J. (1996). A Framework for Task-Based Acquisition. Rowley, MA: Newbury House. Learning. Harlow: Longman. Tomlinson, B. (2003). Developing materials for Willis, J. 2002. What English do primary language teaching. London: Continuum. Teachers need? JALT Language Teacher, 26(7).

الخالصت: الكتابت االكاديميت لها دورا مهما في التعليم العالي وتتضمه جاوبيه مهميه وهما الذرايت بمضمىن الكىرس وتقييم مستىي الطالب. هذا البحث يهذف الً اعطاء فكزة عامت عه القزاءة وتلخيص الكتابت ومه ثم تقييم مستلزماث التذريش التي تستعمل في الذرس عه القزاءة وتلخيص الكتابت باالضافت الً شزح مفصل عه الخطت اليىميت.

30 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 25-34, 2016

Appendixes Appendix 1 A practical lesson plan on Reading and summarizing practice Time: 1.5 hour Guiding constructs: Reading and Summary Writing. Teacher’s aims:  To introduce the students to the process of reading and summary writing.  To lead them practice skills of reading and summary writing. Materials:  Handout 1, main ideas on summary writing  Handout 2, steps of writing summary.  Handout 3, text on culture. Aids  Projector and whiteboard Target Students’ level: Intermediate Lesson Description Stage & Material Aim & target Procedures Participant language structure & time Introduction reading Introduce the reading T. introduces the Whole class, 3mins. and summary writing. and summarising students to the topic, its Hand out 1 process importance to writing an assignment and the aims of the lesson. Presentation: steps Process explanation T. gives detailed Whole class 15 mins. for writing a and description in the explanation about steps summary handout 2 handout to enable to read, write down key students to be familiar words, and write a about the reading, and summary with students. summary writing T. Advises them to read process. carefully and distinguish main ideas and the supporting information. T. explains how to take key words without looking at the handout. Hand out the text to To draw the students‟ T. starts asking students Whole class 8 mins. students. Handout 3 attention to the about the key words in referencing of the text. the text; the name of the author and the specialization etc...

Reading discussion To make sure how T. asks the students to In pairs 6 mins. much the students discuss in pairs how know about the topic. much information they have about the topic. Highlighting To make the students T. writes down the key Whole class 8mins. vocabulary understand the main vocabulary on the board vocabulary and and clarifies information message point before from students: reading the text. sociologist, signs, worldviews, artefacts, non-material culture, customs, values, customs, and beliefs. Reading the text and To let the students skim T. together with students Individual work 6

31 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 25-34, 2016

selecting main ideas the main ideas and read the previous steps in mins. supporting ideas from the handout. T. guides the text. students and sets a time. Eliciting information To make the students T. asks students about Whole class 8mins. know the main ideas the main and support and supporting ideas in ideas in the text the text. Ensure information To help them know T. asks them to work in In pairs 6mins whether they chose the pairs and compare their right information or notes with each other. not. Asking questions To check whether they T. asks students main Whole class 5mins based on the text have the right answer questions to know how or not. much they understand the text. Writing key words To let them write down T. deduces what has been Whole class 5mins. the key words, ideas done. T. asks students from the text. to write their key words based on main ideas. T. limits the time between 2-3 mins. writing summary To check the students T. asks them to start Whole class 20 mins. accuracy in writing key writing summary. words.

Appendix 2 Material evaluation checklist I. Language content - Is the subject presented topically or functionally in a logical, organized matter? ( Byrd, 2001 & Skieerso, 1991) -Does the text deal with the structure of language use such as; how to communicate, how to structure a piece of writing, how to identify the main ideas in reading passage? (Cunningsworth, 1995, pp. 3-4) - Are new vocabulary words selected from the text and presented at an appropriate way in order to make the text understandable?(ibid) - Are there any task-based interactive activities among the learners? ( Byrd, 2001 & Skieerso, 1991) - Is there material for integrated skills? (Cunningsworth, 1995, pp. 3-4) - Is the text interesting enough that students will enjoy reading it? (Krashen, 1997) - Are writing activities suitable in terms of accuracy, guidance/control, organizing of longer pieces of writing, and using a suitable style. (Cunningsworth, 1995, pp. 3-4) 2- Methodology - Do teachers provide techniques for activating student‟s background knowledge before reading the text?(Lee, 2003) - Do teachers provide students with examples of how to preview, skim, scan, summarise and finding the main idea?( Salataci & Akyel, 2002) - Does the material include any advice, help or

32 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 25-34, 2016

learning strategies on studying skills? (Cunningsworth, 1995, pp. 3-4) -Are students expected to take a degree of responsibility for their own learning? (ibid) -What approaches/approach to language learning is taken by the textbook? Is this appropriate to the learning/teaching situation? (ibid) - How are the skills taught? (ibid) 3- Context - Is the text match with the lesson aims? (Byrd, 2001 & Skieerso, 1991) - Does the text appropriate for the students who will sue it? (ibid) - Are the examples and discussion understandable? ( Byrd, 2001) - will the content meet the students need for learning language?( Daoud & Celce-Murcia, 1979 & Byrd, 2001)

Appendix 3/1 Handout about Reading and summary writing taken from Centre for English Language Education at the University of Nottingham

Reading and Summary Writing Explanations: Summaries What is Summary? A summary is a brief short review of a piece of written material. It should always be shorter than the original larger work you are summarising. What kinds of information should be in a summary? A summary should include only main ideas and important supporting information. It shouldn‟t include detail or any personal opinions. How is a summary the same as the original work? A summary should have the basic meaning as the original work. In other words, the summary shouldn‟t have new or different information that is not in the original work. How is the summary different from the original work? A summary should not include many of the exact words as the original work. The writer should use his or her own words in the summary to express the same general ideas found in the original work.

Appendix 3/2 Handout about Steps for Writing a Summary taken from Centre for English Language Education/University of Nottingham

The following steps will help you when you summarise: 1. First, read the original work you are going to summarise and find the main idea(s)  If you are summarising a paragraph, find the topic sentences and then the main supporting ideas of that paragraph.  If you are writing an essay, find the thesis statement and topic sentence and then the main supporting ideas of that paragraph.  If you are summarising a large work, find the main ideas and main support. For example, in addition to looking for topic sentences n the paragraphs, you may want to look for chapter titles, headings and/or subheadings in the longer work. 2- Write down a few key words or phrases to help you remember the main ideas as you write the summary  You may also want to write a brief outline of the main ideas in the same order as they appear in the original work.

33 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 25-34, 2016

 However, don‟t write too much or use full sentences. Be sure to write only words or short phrases in your outline. This way you can make sure the summary working is not exactly the same as the original working.

3- Begin writing your summary  Try not to look at the original while writing the summary. If you do that, it will be too late easy to copy the original words or phrases.

Appendix 3/3 Handout about specific text for summarising. Taken from Centre for English Language Education/University of Nottingham

Summarise the following text: “The word culture appears frequently in the media and in the academic texts. We read about cultural events, traditional values, youth culture, cultural values and cultural differences. What is culture? To socialist, culture refers to the systems of signs, meanings, and worldviews of particular group of human beings. It is everything that the members of a group learn to do, think, use, and make as a part of growing up in the group. Culture in this sense has two levels: material and nonmaterial. Material culture refers to all objects, or artefacts, that have meaning to the members of society or group, or that are used by them. Artefacts include tools, clothes, buildings, weapons, and art objects. Non-material culture, on the other hand, refers to the customs, behaviours, beliefs, values, attitudes, knowledge and language of a society”

(Adapted from Alex Thio, Sociology: A Brief introduction, 1997 (pp 40-41))

34 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 35-47, 2016 ISSN: 2410-7549

Business Failure Prediction using Sherrod and Kida Models: Evidence from Banks Listed on Iraqi Stock Exchange (2011 - 2014)

Islam S. T. Babela and Renas I. Mohammed Banking & Financial Sciences, College of Administration and Economic, University of Zakho, Kurdistan Region, Iraq. (Accepted for publication: september 18, 2016)

Abstract Nowadays business environment characterized by different types of risks and relatively high business uncertainty levels. This is because of the changes that have taken place by globalization and liberalization. To avoid these risks, it has been a very important matter for financial institutions to give much more attention to performance evaluation and use advanced tools for early detection of business failure. Therefore, in the financial literature, business failure prediction has been widely studied. From this standpoint, this paper attempts to investigate whether the banks listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange (ISE) expose to business failure by using Sherrod and Kida models. The population of this paper is restricted to banks listed on the (ISE) from 2011 to 2014. Sixteen banks were selected from the total of twenty three. We entirely relied on secondary data which obtained from financial statements of the selected banks. The study reveals that the exposure of selected banks to the risk of bankruptcy is very low based on Sherrod’s Z-score model. In contrast, the selected banks have serious problems and their exposure to bankruptcy is very high according to Kida’s Z-score model. The study also has concluded that the latter model is unreliable to be applied by banks listed on ISE as its results do not compatible with works of selected banks. The finding of the study can be useful for managers, stockholders, investors and concerned users to visualize the ability of banks’ sustainability. Key words: Business failure prediction, Sherrod, Kida, Z score model, Iraq. government etc. as it may generate huge losses Introduction and high costs to the economy and the society as t is argued that the economic growth of a whole (Ahn et al., 2000: 66). In general, every country to be sustainable, it is very I research articles confirm that the business failure important to have a control over the number prediction is perhaps one of the main substantial of failure firms (Uchenna and Okelue, 2012:86). business decision-making problems, as the This means that an evaluation and predicting decision that made could have an effect on the business failure might help firms for taking the whole life span of a firm (Tam and Kiang, 1992: necessary precautions and actions to avert a cited in Mohammed and Soon, 2012:1). possible financial failure. For this reason, over The purpose of this study is: i) to evaluate the the last few decades, business failure has been situation of banks listed on the ISE whether they considered one of the hottest topics that experience the risk of financial failure by using dominated the study of researchers and a Kida and Sherrod models. ii) To determine the preoccupation of practitioners in the field of differences (if any) between these two models corporate finance (Arkan, 2015: 233). To when they applied to the data of the banks listed support this, a variety of models have been on the ISE. proposed and tested empirically in an attempt to In several ways this study has a contribution predict business failure. For example, Beaver to the literature on business failure. Firstly, the (1966), Altman (1968), Deakin (1972), Kida majority of earlier studies concentrated on (1980), Ohlson (1980), Taffler (1983), Sherrod developed countries to apply business failure (1987) and Shirata (1998) (Gharaibeh et al., prediction models. However, this study focuses 2013: 313). Practitioners use business failure on Iraqi economy as a developing country for prediction models to evaluate firms that are providing empirical evidence. Secondly, likely to face a potential financial distress. These previous published studies in Iraq are limited in models are used in financial institutions in order terms of the model used and the size of sample. to evaluate the risk of loan default; they are used For example the study of (Alhamdani and by investors to assess current or future Alqattan, 2013) concentrated only on Sherrod as investment decision, and creditors, to decide a model of business failure prediction and one whether to deal with a certain firm. Therefore, manufacture as a sample of the study. Similarly, business failure is the main concern to the the study of (Aziz, 2014) has used Kida model stakeholders of any corporation which include and focused on ten banks that listed on ISE. On management, employees, investors, creditors, the other hand, this study focuses on recent set

35 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 35-47, 2016

of data. Furthermore, it attempts to predict X2 = cash assets / total assets. financial failure of (16) banks listed on the ISE X3 = total shareholders' equity / total assets. by using both Kida and Sherrod Models. X4 = earnings before interest and taxes / total The reminder of this paper is organized as assets. follow: the next sections discuss the X5 = total assets / total liabilities. methodological issues of the paper. Section two X6 = total shareholders' equity / tangible fixed sheds light on the empirical review of related assets. literature and the techniques used to predict bank 5.2 Kida Model: failure. Section three is devoted to analysis of Z= -1.042X1 - 0.427X2 - 0.461X3 - 0.463X4 + results and the final section summarizes key 0.271X5 findings and provides conclusions. Where: Section One: Methodology X1= net income / total assets. 1. Statement of the problem: Using ratios make X2= total shareholders' equity / total debt. conflicting predictions about a given business and X3= quick assets / current liabilities. they do not tell the whole story behind the firm’s X4= sales (revenue) / total assets. prospects. Thus, they are unreliable to predict X5= cash / total assets. business failure as their results analyse and 6. Source of data: Due to the nature of this interpret business operations inaccurately (Gepp study, we entirely relied on secondary data which and Kumar, 2012:5; Pike and Neale, 2009:337). are publicly available in the financial statements of Accordingly, this study attempts to answer the the banks. The data were obtained from the ISE following questions: website namely http://www.isx-iq.net/ - To what extend the banks listed on the ISE 7. Population and Sample selection: The study expose to bankruptcy risk by using Sherrod and is restricted to banks listed on ISE. A non- Kida Z-score models? probability sampling technique has been employed - To what extend Kida’s Z-score model differ for a sample size of 16 banks (see table 1.1) from from Sherrod’s Z-score model for predicting the total of 23 banks listed on (ISE) during the business failure? period 2011 to 2014. To be selected, Islamic banks 2. Significance of the study: Predicting were excluded as they do not deal with loans and business failure is useful to various parties. The their banking operations differ from conventional results of the current study could help banks. Furthermore, banks that do not have management, shareholders and investors. In financial statements from 2011 to 2014 were addition, the application of these models might excluded. be an effective early warning tool to predict Table (1): Study sample bank failure even before it occurs. n Banks Establishing date 3. Objective of the study: The objective of this 1 Al-Mansour bank for 5002 study is to predict the financial distress of banks investment 2 Ashur International Bank 2005 listed on the ISE. This study also aims to 3 Babylon bank 1999 identify the differences between these two Bank of Baghdad models (if any). 4 1992 Commercial bank of Iraq 4. Hypotheses of the study: To achieve the 5 1992 Credit bank of Iraq objectives of the study, the following hypotheses 6 1998 7 Dar Es salam investment 1998 have been formulated: bank H1: There is a possible exposure of financial 8 Gulf commercial bank 1999 failure of banks listed on the ISE. 9 Investment bank of Iraq 1993 H2: There are no significant differences in the 10 Iraqi middle east 3991 accuracy level of prediction between Sherrod’s investment bank Z-score model and Kida’s Z-score model when 11 Mosul bank for finance 2001 both applied to banks listed on the ISE. and investment 5. Data Analysis Method: This study has 12 National bank of Iraq 1995 adopted two models to achieve its objectives, as 13 North bank for finance 2003 and investment shown below: 14 Sumer Commercial bank 1999 5.1 Sherrod Model: 15 Union bank of Iraq 2002 Z = 17X + 9X + 3.5X + 20X + 1.2X + 0.10X 1 2 3 4 5 6 16 United bank for 3991 Where: investment X1 = Working capital / total assets. Source: Authors

36 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 35-47, 2016

Section Two: Literature review Z-score has been introduced as a first 1. Default Prediction Studies Utilizing Multivariate Discriminant Approach (MDA) in Accounting Information: 1968 by Altman, after he improves the The early attempt to predict bankruptcy was Univariate approach of Beaver 1966 (Okay, Fitzpatrick (1932). Fitzpatrick used financial 2015: 6). ratios for comparing between successful and 2. The Definition of Business Failure: failure business. Since, the study on business There is no a uniform definition of business failure has been recognized widely by the failure. In the literature, there are a wide range of researchers. To predict business failure, definitions depending on the researchers’ point (Beavers, 1966) was the first researcher who of view. Thus, business failure prediction has used usefulness of financial ratios to employ many aliases, such as, financial distress Univariate Discriminant Analysis (UDA). The prediction, bankruptcy prediction and firm consideration of this model is to minimize failure prediction. Hence, all the given aliases misclassification costs by calculating accounting attempt to predict the failure before it actually ratios individually and a cut off point for each happens. Statistically business failure prediction ratio and the accuracy prediction ranges between relies on financial ratios from financial 50% to above 90% (Okay, 2015: 5). statements to predict the failure or success of a In this context, many others have since business (Gepp & Kumar, 2012: 2). proposed the usefulness of accounting data. Altman and Hotckiss (2005) define failure According to Poston, K. M., et al., (1994: 43) in “by economic criteria, means that the realized the forms of methodological refinements, the rate of return on invested capital, with most notable contributions are (e.g., Altman, allowances for risk consideration, is 1968; Deaken, 1972, 1977; Altman, Haldeman significantly and continually lower than and Narayanan, 1977; Ohlson, 1980; Casey and prevailing rates on similar investments Bartczak, 1985; and Gentry et al., 1985). Somewhat different economic criteria have also However, the classification of sample firms into been utilized, including insufficient revenues to failed or non-failed was a major weakness of cover costs and where average return on these works. This is because, any firm before it investment is continually below the firm’s cost of reaches the final stage of collapse, it may be able capital. These economic situations make no to remedy its weaknesses positions, and this statements about the existence or discontinuance artificial dichotomization does not explicitly of the entity.” Furthermore, failure, by financial recognizing that. criteria, can be defined as “insufficient cash Over the years, to predict a business failure, flow to satisfy current obligations. These researchers used a variety of methods normally obligations might include outstanding debts to constructed using either internal or external bank suppliers and employees, incurred losses from data (Tatum, 2011:3). These modules ongoing legal processes, default in repayment of (techniques) were; Univariate Analysis (UA), principal and interests” (Aktan, 2011:20). Discriminant Analysis (DA), Logit and Probit As a general approach financial failure means Analysis (LA), Human Information Processing the inability to meet current liabilities as they (HIP), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), come due because of insufficient liquidity. Sequential Procedures, Decision Tree (DT), and Other Standard Multivariate Techniques such as 3. Cause of Failure: Principal Component Analysis, Factor Analysis Business failure occurs when company’s and Cluster Analysis (Gepp & Kumar, 2012: 2). returns are negative or low and this, in turn, is The Univariate Discriminant Analysis model probably lead to a serious financial failure unless has later been criticized in spite of its good is remedied (Gitman and Zutter, 2012: 737). In prediction. This is because applying Univariate the same context, Altman (1986) indicated that model with the same company using different there is a strong possibility that companies fail if ratios may produce conflicting results (Okay, they are not making profit, more relined on loans 2015: 5). Thus, according to Edmister, and they suffer from cash flow difficulties (1972:1491), to capture all the aspects and (Keener, 2013:375). variables of failure, the univariate approach It has been suggested that failures can be might not be sufficient as the situation of a predicted either by observing the performance company in a financial environment does not indicator or by implementing and analyzing the rely only on one factor. Consequently, Altman strategic plan. A list of causes contributing to the

37 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 35-47, 2016

failure has been developed almost in all the the useful insights into the causes of failures studies on the causes of failure. Thus, some of have been provided (table 2). Table 2: Set of main factors affecting the performance of a business entity Internal Factor External Factor

Poor management (Quality Management). Social environment. Dissonance to the environmental developments. Industrial Environment. Insufficient communication. Economic Environment. Unbalanced growth. Natural Environmental. Failure in the main projects. Technological Environment. Legal and Political Environment. Source: Aktan, S. (2011). Early Warning System for Bankruptcy: Bankruptcy Prediction. (Doctoral thesis, des Karlsruher Instituts für Technologie (KIT), Germany). Retrieved 30 June 2016, from http://d-nb.info/1019790032/34

4. Business Failure Prediction Models: Sherrod’s Z-score model. As well as the Since its beginnings in the 1960’s, many following models are ones of the most modern different techniques have been applied to predict models in predicting financial failure (Arkan, business failure. The business failure prediction 2015: 240). has been arguably started earlier. However, the 4.1 Sherrod Model: Sherrod model is first modern statistical model for business failure considered one of the advanced models for prediction was published before that (Gepp & detecting the phenomenon of financial failure. Kumar, 2012: 4). One criticism of much of the Six independent financial indicators were literature on these models is that, they are depended on by this model, as well as the questionable in terms of suitability and performance, as the data used were from relative weights of the discrimination function developed economies. In addition, these models coefficients given for these variables (Arkan, were developed during the late 60’s. Since then 2015: 240). According to (Abu Orabi, 2014:33), the business environment has seen a lot of the discriminant function developed by Sherrod changes in many aspects (Boritz et al., 2007: is as follow: 144). However, several studies have Z = 17X1 + 9X2 + 3.5X3 + 20X4 + 1.2X5 + revealed that these models were able to predict 0.10X occurrence of financial failure in a large percent 6 in many situations. In this paper the Multivariate To measure the ability to continue according Discriminant Approach (MDA) is been reviewed to the degree of risk, business firms have been and referenced using Kida’s Z-score model and given five categories as follows: Table 3: Categories according to the degree of risk and to measure the ability to continue Category Risk degree Z score 1st Company is not exposed to the risk of bankruptcy Z > 25 2nd Little likelihood of exposure to the risk of bankruptcy 25 ≥ Z > 20 3rd Difficult to predict the risk of bankruptcy 20 ≥ Z > 5 4th The Company is exposed significantly to the risk of bankruptcy 5 ≥ Z > –5 5th The Company is exposed to the risk of bankruptcy Z≤ 5 – Source: Abu Orabi, M.M. (2014). Empirical Tests on Financial Failure Prediction Models. Interdisciplinary journal of contemporary research in business, 5(9), 29-43.

The above model shows that companies ≥ Z > –5 and Z≤ 5 –. Hence, the financial considered as a good sign for being successful position of the business firm is strong and it has who have a Z-score of > 25. However, a very good chance to continue with a degree of companies may not be able to continue due to low risk if the Z-score increases. However, the potential serious problems that have a Z-score 5 financial position of the business firm is facing

38 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 35-47, 2016

the difficulties to continue with a high degree of Section Three: Data presentation, analysis risk if the Z-score decreases. and interpretation 4.2 Kida model: Kida’s model relied on five To achieve the objectives of the study, multi separate financial indicators to predict financial discriminant analysis model (Z-score) of Sherrod failure (Alkhatib and Al Bozur, 2011: 209). and Kida has been employed to 16 banks listed According to (Kida, 1980: 513), the discriminant on (ISE) to predict their financial position during function developed by Kida is as follow: the period 2011 to 2014. Z= -1.042X1 - 0.427X2 - 0.461X3 - 0.463X4 + The outcomes of Z-score for each bank were 0.271X5 extracted through excel spreadsheets and only A negative Z-score implies a problem firm, two digits have been taken after decimal point. where as a positive Z-score implies a non- The results of data analysis have been computed problem firm. as follows: 1. Al-Mansour bank for investment: Table (4): The outcomes of Sherrod and Kida models model Sherrod Model Kida Model

X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 Z- X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 Z years score score 2011 6.40 8.77 1.41 0.70 2.01 1.55 20.84 -0.03 0.29 0.75 0.03 0.10 -1.01 2012 10.07 8.80 2.15 0.68 3.11 2.81 27.63 -0.03 0.68 1.17 0.02 0.06 -1.84 2013 5.82 8.88 1.24 0.76 1.86 2.76 21.32 -0.03 0.23 0.71 0.02 0.07 -0.92 2014 5.20 8.88 1.12 0.47 1.76 2.43 19.86 -0.02 0.20 0.67 0.02 0.09 -0.82 Source: Authors As can be seen from the table (4), the Z-score However, the result of 2014 shows that the of Sherrod’s models has achieved the highest prediction of bankruptcy is difficult as the Z- number in 2012 which reveals a good sign for score is less than 20. In contrast, the outcome of being successful because the Z-score is bigger Kida’s Z-score interpret that the financial than 25. While, in 2011 and 2013 the results position of the bank is weak and there is a were 20.84 and 21.32 respectively, which means chance to face the risk of failure because the that the probability of failure is very low. results are negative. 2. Ashur International Bank: Table (5): The outcomes of Sherrod and Kida models model Sherrod Model Kida Model

X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 Z- X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 Z years score score 2011 7.11 8.27 1.75 1.18 2.40 0.61 21.32 -0.05 0.43 0.85 0.05 0.17 -1.21 2012 9.71 8.41 2.23 1.48 3.30 0.97 26.11 -0.06 0.75 1.19 0.05 0.08 -1.96 2013 9.87 8.39 2.27 1.08 3.42 0.95 25.98 -0.05 0.79 1.22 0.04 0.17 -1.93 2014 9.51 8.44 2.18 0.62 3.17 1.00 24.90 -0.02 0.70 1.14 0.03 0.19 -1.71 Source: Authors According to the above table, it can be International Bank is strong and it has a very asserted that the results for Ashur International good chance to continue with a degree of low Bank from Sherrod Z-score model for the year risk when the Z-score increases. However, 2011 and 2014 were 21.32 and 24.90 according to the outcomes of Kida’s Z-score respectively, this indicate that the results located model for all the years the figures were negative, within the second category which is a little this indicate that Ashur International Bank may likelihood of exposure to the risk of bankruptcy. not be able to continue due to a potential serious While in 2012 and 2013 were 26.11 and 25.98, problems which have a Z-score of negative. this indicates that the financial position of Ashur

39 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 35-47, 2016

3. Babylon bank: Table (6): The outcomes of Sherrod and Kida models model Sherrod Model Kida Model years X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 Z-score X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 Z score 2011 5.05 8.11 1.39 0.43 1.99 0.40 17.36 -0.02 0.28 0.69 0.03 0.15 -0.87 2012 4.51 8.13 1.29 0.39 1.90 0.38 16.60 -0.02 0.25 0.66 0.03 0.19 -0.76 2013 6.18 7.86 1.72 0.30 2.35 0.39 18.79 -0.01 0.41 0.79 0.03 0.07 -1.17 2014 6.54 6.98 2.13 0.37 3.07 0.27 19.37 -0.02 0.67 0.92 0.03 0.05 -1.58 Source: Authors Table (6) shows that the financial position of of risk because the Z-score is less than 20 and Babylon bank for the all years is very difficult to bigger than 5. On the other hand, based on the predict in terms of business failure based on outcomes of Kida’s Z-score, the results indicate Sherrod’s Z-score model. The results located that the probability of failure is high as the within the third category according to the degree outcomes are negative. 4. Bank of Baghdad: Table (7): The outcomes of Sherrod and Kida models model Sherrod Model Kida Model X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 Z- X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 Z years score score 2011 2.05 8.65 0.56 0.57 1.43 0.41 13.67 -0.02 0.08 0.53 0.03 0.14 -0.52 2012 2.14 8.70 0.56 0.46 1.43 0.48 13.76 -0.02 0.08 0.53 0.02 0.17 -0.48 2013 2.26 8.71 0.58 0.44 1.44 0.51 13.94 -0.02 0.08 0.53 0.02 0.16 -0.50 2014 2.19 8.72 0.56 0.36 1.43 0.51 13.76 -0.02 0.08 0.53 0.02 0.15 -0.50 Source: Authors From the table above we can see that Bank of Whereas, according to Sherrod’s Z-score it is Baghdad is exposed to the risk of bankruptcy tricky to predict whether the bank faces the risk based on Kida’s Z-score during the study period of bankruptcy during the study period as the Z- and it has a weak financial position, as a score is in the third category. negative Z-score implies a problem in the bank. 5. Commercial bank of Iraq: Table (8): The outcomes of Sherrod and Kida models model Sherrod Model Kida Model X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 Z- X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 Z years score score 2011 9.18 8.94 1.91 0.64 2.65 8.72 32.05 -0.03 0.51 1.01 0.03 0.12 -1.46 2012 8.19 8.94 1.71 0.98 2.34 7.94 30.10 -0.05 0.41 0.89 0.03 0.13 -1.25 2013 9.90 8.96 2.05 0.64 2.91 12.30 36.76 -0.03 0.61 1.11 0.03 0.16 -1.62 2014 10.71 8.97 2.22 0.47 3.27 19.95 45.58 -0.02 0.74 1.25 0.02 0.08 -1.95 Source: Authors According to the outcomes of Kida’s Z-score Sherrod Z-score model for all the chosen year model it is obvious the Z score takes a negative was bigger than 25, it means Commercial bank slope during the period of study which reflects of Iraq is not exposed to the risk of bankruptcy that the tendency of the company will have because it located within the first category of the difficulties in paying obligations and it gives a model. Thus, it has a very good chance to strong signal to the financial failure. Though, continue with a degree of low risk. results for Commercial bank of Iraq from

40 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 35-47, 2016

6. Credit bank of Iraq: Table (9): The outcomes of Sherrod and Kida models model Sherrod Model Kida Model

X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 Z- X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 Z years score score 2011 5.77 8.98 1.20 0.83 1.82 12.69 31.30 -0.04 0.22 0.70 0.04 0.12 -0.88 2012 5.23 8.95 1.09 0.90 1.75 6.06 23.98 -0.04 0.19 0.67 0.03 0.09 -0.84 2013 5.47 8.96 1.14 0.46 1.78 6.78 24.59 -0.02 0.21 0.68 0.02 0.09 -0.84 2014 7.81 8.96 1.62 0.51 2.24 10.13 31.27 -0.02 0.37 0.86 0.02 0.09 -1.18 Source: Authors The results presented in table (9) shows that, upwards and locate within the first and second with regards to Sherrod Z-score model, the Z category. Despite that, the Z value from 2011 to value during the period of study we can observe 2014 goes negatively, which means the Credit a slight improvement in the financial bank of Iraq will go through financial failure and performance of the bank where the Z value goes a position of insolvency. 7. Dar Es salam investment bank: Table (10): The outcomes of Sherrod and Kida models model Sherrod Model Kida Model

X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 Z- X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 Z years score score 2011 2.22 8.92 0.49 0.30 1.39 1.62 14.94 -0.01 0.07 0.53 0.02 0.19 -0.45 2012 2.94 8.91 0.64 0.55 1.47 1.83 16.34 -0.02 0.10 0.56 0.03 0.20 -0.51 2013 3.88 8.93 0.82 0.54 1.57 3.24 18.98 -0.02 0.13 0.60 0.02 0.20 -0.58 2014 4.40 8.77 1.00 0.43 1.68 1.09 17.36 -0.02 0.17 0.63 0.02 0.18 -0.65 Source: Authors The results of Sherrod’s Z-score model in category of the risk degree. The outcomes of table (10) indicate that the prediction of Kida’s Z-score, however, suggest that the bank bankruptcy of the bank is difficult during the may not be able to continue due to the risk of study period. Although there was a fluctuation in failure as the outcomes are negative. the Z-score out comes, it remained in the third 8. Gulf commercial bank: Table (11): The outcomes of Sherrod and Kida models model Sherrod Model Kida Model

X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 Z- X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 Z years score score 2011 4.40 8.47 1.20 0.73 1.76 0.59 17.15 -0.04 0.22 0.64 0.04 0.08 -0.85 2012 5.09 8.51 1.23 1.71 1.86 0.64 19.04 -0.08 0.23 0.67 0.06 0.10 -0.94 2013 5.73 8.52 1.36 1.43 1.96 0.73 19.74 -0.06 0.27 0.71 0.05 0.13 -0.97 2014 6.14 8.42 1.48 1.05 2.08 0.66 19.84 -0.05 0.31 0.75 0.05 0.12 -1.03 Source: Authors Results from table (11) shows that all the However, according to the outcomes of Kida’s figures regarding to Sherrod’s Z-score model are Z-score model for all the years the figures are located within the third category (20 ≥ Z > 5). In negative, this indicates that Gulf commercial spite of the slightly risen in the figures still the bank may not be able to continue and there is a probability of being insolvency is difficult. high probability of bankruptcy.

41 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 35-47, 2016

9. Investment bank of Iraq: Table (12): The outcomes of Sherrod and Kida models model Sherrod Model Kida Model X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 Z- X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 Z years score score 2011 5.37 8.63 1.25 0.04 1.87 0.86 18.02 -0.03 0.24 0.69 0.03 0.13 -0.86 2012 4.60 8.63 1.09 0.18 1.74 0.76 17.01 -0.01 0.19 0.64 0.03 0.11 -0.76 2013 5.75 8.74 1.25 1.21 1.90 1.23 20.08 -0.05 0.24 0.71 0.04 0.12 -0.93 2014 8.29 8.72 1.78 1.25 2.49 1.64 24.16 -0.05 0.45 0.93 0.05 0.17 -1.31 Source: Authors Table (12) shows the outcomes of Kida’s Z- and 17.01 respectively, this indicates the score model from 2011 to 2014 were negative, difficulty of predicting the risk of bankruptcy this indicates that the prospect of bankruptcy is because it located within the third category. too high and has a weak financial position which While in 2013 and 2014 were just within the leads to the failure in the near future. second category at 20.08 and 24.16, this Nevertheless, it is obvious that the outcomes for indicates that the financial position of Investment bank of Iraq from Sherrod Z-score Investment bank of Iraq is a little likelihood of model for the year 2011 and 2012 were 18.02 exposure to the risk of bankruptcy. 10. Iraqi middle east investment bank: Table (13): The outcomes of Sherrod and Kida models model Sherrod Model Kida Model X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 Z- X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 Z years score score 2011 1.82 8.10 0.72 0.65 1.51 0.21 13.01 -0.03 0.11 0.52 0.03 0.15 -0.55 2012 2.40 8.21 0.80 0.70 1.56 0.26 13.92 -0.03 0.13 0.55 0.03 0.15 -0.58 2013 2.53 7.98 0.92 0.63 1.63 0.23 13.92 -0.03 0.15 0.55 0.03 0.15 -0.62 2014 5.31 7.76 1.57 0.13 2.18 0.33 17.28 -0.01 0.35 0.72 0.02 0.14 -0.96 Source: Authors The outcomes from the Sherrod’s Z-score zone. On the contrary, all the figures rated a model as it can be seen from table (13), all the negative Z score according to the outcomes of figures located within the third category (20 ≥ Z Kida’s Z-score model, this indicates that the > 5). It demonstrates that the financial position financial position of the firm is very high to be of Iraqi Middle East investment bank is very in the dangerous zone, as in a distress zone there difficult to predict whether the firm will go is a high probability of bankruptcy. through a business failure or remain in the safe 11. Mosul bank for finance and investment: Table (14): The outcomes of Sherrod and Kida models model Sherrod Model Kida Model X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 Z- X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 Z years score score 2011 5.49 8.74 1.21 0.97 1.85 1.20 19.46 -0.04 0.23 0.69 0.04 0.13 -0.87 2012 7.89 8.89 1.65 0.81 2.29 3.80 25.33 -0.04 0.38 0.87 0.03 0.12 -1.20 2013 7.93 8.90 1.63 1.62 2.30 4.08 26.45 -0.07 0.38 0.87 0.05 0.15 -1.22 2014 13.16 9.03 2.70 0.13 5.25 4.40 34.66 -0.01 1.44 2.02 0.02 0.07 -3.41 Source: Authors It can be seen from the data in table (14) that 2014 to achieve the highest rating in the last year in 2011 the Z-score of Sherrod model was 19.46 which interpret the bank is far from the risk of which means that the prediction of bankruptcy of bankruptcy. Unlike Sherrod’s model, Kida’s Z- Mosul bank is difficult. It is not an obvious score model provides negative ratings for the indicator to judge on the financial position of the same bank during the study period. This means bank as long as the Z-score located within the that the bank has a very weak financial position third category of the risk degree. However, the and the possibility of business failure exposure is Z-score has increased dramatically from 2012 to very high in near future.

42 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 35-47, 2016

12. National bank of Iraq: Table (15): The outcomes of Sherrod and Kida models model Sherrod Model Kida Model X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 Z- X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 Z years score score 2011 9.34 8.81 2.00 0.31 2.80 2.64 25.90 -0.01 0.57 1.05 0.03 0.16 -1.50 2012 7.51 8.85 1.61 1.08 2.22 2.70 23.95 -0.05 0.36 0.84 0.04 0.21 -1.08 2013 5.01 8.86 1.09 0.61 1.74 1.95 19.26 -0.03 0.19 0.66 0.03 0.19 -0.71 2014 6.86 8.78 1.50 0.30 2.10 1.76 21.29 -0.01 0.32 0.79 0.03 0.18 -0.97 Source: Authors Above table shows the outcomes for National 25, it means that National bank of Iraq is not bank of Iraq from Sherrod Z-score model for the exposed to the risk of bankruptcy. Thus, it has a year 2013 was 19.26, this indicates that the score very good chance to continue while Z value goes located in the third category, though it’s difficult positively. With regards to Kida Z-score model to predict the risk of bankruptcy. While in 2012 the outcomes were disappointing because all the and 2014 were 23.95 and 21.29, this means that score were negative, this indicate that National the financial position of National bank of Iraq is bank of Iraq may not be able to continue and a Little likelihood of exposure to the risk of will go through financial failure and a position bankruptcy. In 2011 the score was bigger than of bankruptcy. 13. North bank for finance and investment: Table (16): The outcomes of Sherrod and Kida models model Sherrod Model Kida Model X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 Z- X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 Z years score score 2011 9.34 8.81 2.00 0.31 2.80 2.64 25.90 -0.01 0.57 1.05 0.03 0.16 -1.50 2012 7.51 8.85 1.61 1.08 2.22 2.70 23.95 -0.05 0.36 0.84 0.04 0.21 -1.08 2013 5.01 8.86 1.09 0.61 1.74 1.95 19.26 -0.03 0.19 0.66 0.03 0.19 -0.71 2014 6.86 8.78 1.50 0.30 2.10 1.76 21.29 -0.01 0.32 0.79 0.03 0.18 -0.97 Source: Authors Table (16) presents the results obtained from number has increased noticeably to achieve Sherrod and Kida Models. With regard to 28.36, which illustrates that the bank is not Sherrod model, it is apparent from this table that exposed to the risk of business failure. On the the Z-score of North bank from 2011- 2013 was other hand, the results of Kida’s Z-score model 13.17, 12 and 14.05 respectively. These figures were negative for all years, which imply that are located within the third category which there is a problem in this bank and it may means that the situation of the bank is difficult to experience the risk of bankruptcy in the near predict the risk of bankruptcy. While in 2014 the future. 14. Sumer Commercial bank: Table (17): The outcomes of Sherrod and Kida models model Sherrod Model Kida Model X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 Z- X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 Z years score score 2011 9.80 8.51 2.21 0.03 3.25 1.16 24.96 -0.01 0.73 1.18 0.02 0.10 -1.83 2012 8.93 8.44 2.06 0.10 2.91 0.94 23.38 -0.01 0.61 1.05 0.04 0.15 -1.55 2013 9.84 8.51 2.21 0.13 3.27 1.17 25.14 -0.01 0.74 1.19 0.07 0.16 -1.83 2014 9.69 8.56 2.17 0.13 3.15 1.26 24.96 -0.01 0.69 1.15 0.02 0.16 -1.71 Source: Authors Table (17) presents different rating scores probability of bankruptcy is very low as the Z- according to Sherrod’s model. The Z-score of score located within the second category of the Sumer commercial bank in 2013 was 25.14 risk degree. On the other hand, the rating score which mean that the financial position of the of Kida’s model negative outcomes during the bank is strong and it has a very good chance to study period, which implies that the bank is continue. While the outcomes of 2011, 2012 and exposed to the risk of financial failure in the next 2014 were just under 25 which indicate that the years.

43 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 35-47, 2016

15. Union bank of Iraq: Table (18): The outcomes of Sherrod and Kida models model Sherrod Model Kida Model X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 Z- X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 Z years score score 2011 6.61 8.49 1.56 0.63 2.16 0.79 20.25 -0.03 0.34 0.78 0.03 0.16 -1.03 2012 3.02 8.83 0.69 0.72 1.49 1.06 15.81 -0.03 0.10 0.56 0.03 0.16 -0.57 2013 6.81 8.68 1.53 2.14 2.13 1.24 22.53 -0.09 0.33 0.79 0.10 0.11 -1.20 2014 6.08 8.73 1.36 0.53 1.96 1.29 19.95 -0.02 0.27 0.73 0.06 0.12 -0.96 Source: Authors Table (18) shows the outcomes for Union position of Union bank of Iraq is strong and it bank of Iraq from Sherrod Z-score model for the has a very good chance to continue with a degree year 2012 and 2014 were 15.81 and 19.95 of low risk when the Z-score increases. Even so, respectively, this indicates that the score located according to the outcomes of Kida’s Z-score within the third category, though it is difficult to model for all of the chosen years were negative, predict the risk of bankruptcy. While in 2011 this means that the Union bank of Iraq will face and 2013 were 20.25 and 22.53, which has a problems to keep business runs in the near increased slightly, this means that the financial future as the financial position seems to be weak. 16. United bank for investment: Table (19): The outcomes of Sherrod and Kida models model Sherrod Model Kida Model X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 Z- X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 Z years score score 2011 6.06 8.81 1.32 1.50 1.93 1.80 21.42 -0.07 0.26 0.72 0.05 0.06 -1.04 2012 6.33 8.40 1.54 1.58 2.14 0.66 20.64 -0.08 0.33 0.77 0.06 0.08 -1.16 2013 6.47 8.38 1.57 0.98 2.18 0.66 20.24 -0.04 0.35 0.78 0.04 0.04 -1.17 2014 7.47 8.18 1.86 0.88 2.56 0.58 21.53 -0.04 0.48 0.89 0.04 0.02 -1.43 Source: Authors Table (19) illustrates that Sherrod’s Z-score the risk of bankruptcy. However, the results of of United Bank from 2011 to 2014 were (25≥ Z Kida’s Z-score models show that the bank is ˃ 20). In other words, as long as the Z-score is threatened to financial failure in the next years. located within the second category of risk According to the latter, the bank has to take degree, there is a little likelihood of exposure to precautionary procedures against this threat. Table (20): Comparative results of Sherrod and Kida models in terms of bankruptcy predictive ability Sherrod’s Z-score Kida’s Z-score n Banks Mean Mean 1 Al-Mansour bank for investment 22.41 -1.148 2 Ashur International Bank 24.58 -1.70 3 Babylon bank 18.03 -1.09 4 Bank of Baghdad 13.78 -0.50 5 Commercial bank of Iraq 36.12 -1.57 6 Credit bank of Iraq 27.79 -0.94 7 Dar Es salam investment bank 16.91 -0.55 8 Gulf commercial bank 18.94 -0.95 9 Investment bank of Iraq 19.82 -0.96 10 Iraqi middle east investment bank 14.53 -0.68 11 Mosul bank for finance and investment 26.48 -1.67 12 National bank of Iraq 22.60 -1.07 13 North bank for finance and investment 16.90 -2.11 14 Sumer Commercial bank 24.61 -1.73 15 Union bank of Iraq 19.63 -0.94 16 United bank for investment 20.96 -1.20 Total 21.51 -1.18 Source: Authors

44 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 35-47, 2016

A comparison of the two results, as shown in profitable, their liabilities are less than their table (20), reveals that the prediction of the assets and they are still working till now. The majority of banks is difficult to predict based on study has confirmed the findings of Ali (2014) Sherrod’s Z-score model, as their ratings located which found that Kida’s model could not give an within the third category of the risk degree. actual picture about the financial position of While the minority of banks are able to continue firms. Hence, the present study provides and they are not exposed to the risk of failure as additional evidence that Kida’s model may not their Z-score are more than 25. However, the give accurate results about business failure ratings of the rest of banks indicate that their prediction. As a consequence, this study has exposure to bankruptcy is very low as their Z- raised an important question about the accuracy score is more than 20 and less than 25. The of Kida’s Z-score model. interpretation, on the other hand, of Kida’s Z- 2. Recommendations: score illustrate that the financial position of all 2.1 It is recommended that banks need to assess banks is weak and they will face potential their financial position periodically to detect any serious problems in the near future. This is financial distress problems so as to be remedied because the ratings of the banks are negative. before getting worse. Overall, these results indicate that Sherrod’s 2.2 It is recommended that banks can apply Z-score of the banks involved in this study Sherrod’s Z-score model for business failure located in the second category of the risk degree. prediction as it gives clear results about their This means that there is a little likelihood of future status. exposure to the risk of bankruptcy. In contrast, 2.3 The findings of the current study reveal that the possibility of bankruptcy of the banks Bank can’t take the advantage of Kida’s Z-score involved in the current study is very high based model because its results did not coincide with on Kida’s Z-score. This is because the average actual reality. rating of these banks is negative. 2.4 This research has thrown up an important Section Four: Conclusion and question about Kida’s model in need of further recommendations: investigation. Considerably more work will need 1. Conclusion: The most obvious finding to to be done to determine the accuracy of Kida’s emerge from this study is the followings: model by taking failure firms with successful 1.1. The financial failure is considered a firms and this, in turn, may give a better picture negative phenomenon which is experienced by about this model. firms. This is in turn may cause the firms to exit 2.5 Further study could focus on another from the market. industry as a sample so as to examine the 1.2. There are a number of indicators or accuracy of these models as tools of business models which can be used by firms to predict the failure prediction. financial failure. 1.3. The accuracy of implementing business References: Abu Orabi, M.M. (2014). Empirical Tests on failure prediction models may give an early Financial Failure Prediction Models. Interdisciplinary warning to firms before falling into the risk of journal of contemporary research in business, 5(9), bankruptcy. 29-43. 1.4. The outcomes of Sherrod’s Z-score Ahn, B. S., Cho, S. S., & Kim, C. Y. (2000). The revealed that the banks listed on (ISE) are integrated methodology of rough set theory and successful, able to fulfil their obligations and far artificial neural network for business failure from the financial distress, although there is a prediction. Expert systems with applications, 18(2), very low probability that a few banks are 65-74. exposed to the risk financial failure. While Aktan, S. (2011). Early Warning System for Kida’s Z-score model reported the opposite Bankruptcy: Bankruptcy Prediction. (Doctoral thesis, results for the same banks. des Karlsruher Instituts für Technologie (KIT), 1.5. In addition, according to the latter model, Germany). Retrieved 30 June 2016, from http://d- the financial position of these banks is very nb.info/1019790032/34 weak and the probability of exposure to financial Alhamdani, R. and Alqattan, Y. (2013). Using distress is relatively high. This is in contrast with model Sherrod to measure the financial failure of a the reality of these banks activities as their public company for the manufacture of medicines and financial statements show that they are medical supplies in Nineveh. Available at:

45 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 35-47, 2016

http://www.iasj.net/iasj?func=fulltext&aId=76478 Gharaibeh, M. A., Sartawi, I. M., Daradkah, D. (access date June 12, 2016) (2013). The Applicability of Corporate Failure Ali, G. (2014). Contrast prediction models of Models to Emerging Economies: Evidence from financial failure in determining the financial position Jordan. Institute of Interdisciplinary Business of companies. Available at: http://magazine.albaath- Research, 4 (5), 313-325. univ.edu.sy/magazine/pages/2014/2/1.pdf Gitman L. and Zutter C. (2012), Managerial (Accessed July 9, 2016). Finance; 13th edition, Prentiss hall publishing. Alkhatib, K., & Al Bzour, A. E. (2011). Keener, M. H. (2013). Predicting the Financial Predicting corporate bankruptcy of Jordanian listed Failure of Retail Companies in The United State. companies: Using Altman and Kida models. Journal of Business & Economics Research, 11(8), International Journal of Business and Management, 373-380. 6(3), 208-215. Kida, T. (1980). An investigation into auditors' Arkan, Thomas (2015). Detecting financial continuity and related qualification judgments. distress with the Sherrod Model: a case Study. Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn): 506-523. Finanse, Rynki Finansowe, Ubezpieczenia nr 74(2), Mohammed, A. A. E. and Soon, N. K. (2012). 233-244. Using Altman's Model and Current Ratio to Assess Aziz, K. (2014). The role of business failure the Financial Status of Companies Quoted In the prediction and operating cash flows in banking Malaysian Stock Exchange. International Journal of stability. Available at: Scientific and Research Publications, 7(2), 1-11. http://www.uokufa.edu.iq/journals/index.php/ghjec Okay, K. (2015). Predicting Business Failures /article/view/3054/2561 (accessed June 15, 2016). Innon-Financial Turkish Companies. Retrieved 19 Boritz, J., Kennedy, D., & Sun, J. (2007). April 2016, from Predicting business failures in Canada. Accounting http://www.thesis.bilkent.edu.tr/0006970.pdf Perspectives, 6(2), 141-165. Pike, R., & Neale, B. (2009). Corporate finance Edmister, R. O. (1972). An empirical test of and investment: Decisions & strategies. 6th ed. financial ratio analysis for small business failure Harlow, England: Financial Times/Prentice Hall. prediction. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Poston, K. M., Harmon, W. K., & Gramlich, J. D. analysis,7(02), 1477-1493. (1994). A test of financial ratios as predictors of Fitzpatrick, P. (1932). A comparison of ratios of turnaround versus failure among financially successful industrial enterprises with those of failed distressed firms. Journal of Applied Business firms. Certified Public Accountant, 10-12, 598-605, Research, 10(1), 41. 656-662, 727-731. Tatum, A., John. (2011). Predicting failure in the Gepp, A., & Kumar, K. (2012). Business failure commercial banking industry - Munich Personal prediction using statistical techniques: A review. In RePEc Archive. Mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de. Retrieved K. Kumar & A. Chaturvedi (Eds.). Some Recent 18 June 2016, from https://mpra.ub.uni- Developments in Statistical Theory and Applications muenchen.de/34608/ (pp 1-25). Boca Raton, Florida, USA: Brown Walker Uchenna, A.W. and Okelue, U. D. (2012). Press. Available at: Predicting Corporate Business Failure in the Nigerian http://epublications.bond.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.c Manufacturing Industry. European Journal of gi?article=1678&context=business_pubs Business and Management, 10(4), 86-93.

46 Journal of University of Zakho, Vol. 4(B) , No.2, Pp 35-47, 2016

كىرتًا لًَكىلًنىَ: د رؤذطارا ئةظرؤ دا ذينطةها كارى مةترشًًَن جىدا جىدا و ثمةيًَن بمند يًَن نة ثشت راشت بىونىَ تًَدا هةنة, ذ بةر جًوانطًَرى و لًربالًسما بازرطانى. ذ بؤ خىة ثاراشنت ذ ظان جىرة مةترشًان يا بىوية ثًَتظى بؤ دةزطايًَن دارايى لصةر بابةتىَ هةلصةنطاندنا ثةرفىرمانصىَ راوةشنت و هندةك ريَكان ب كاربًنن ذ بؤ وىَ يةكىَ ذناظضىونا دارايى ثًَش رويبدةت بًَتة زانني. ذ بةر ظىَ ضةندىَ بابةتىَ ثًَشبًنًكرن ناظضىونا دارايى بشًَىةيةكىَ بةرفرةه هاتًة ظةكىلني د بىاريَن دارايى دا. د ظى ضارضىظةيى دا ئةظ ظةكىلًنة ثًَكىىلَ دكةت بؤ بدةشت ظة ئًنانا ئةجنامان لصةر تىشبىونا بانكًَن ذيَطرتى بؤ ذ ناظضىونا دارايى بكارئًنانا مىديَمًَن )Sherrod( و )Kida(. ذ بؤ بدةشتظةئًنانا ئةجنامان, داتايًَن )61( بانكان هاتًنة وةرطرتن ذ شةرجةمىَ )32( بانكان ئةويَن تىماركرى د بازارىَ ئرياقىَ يىَ كاغةزيَن دارايى دا. ئةظ ظةكىلًنة طةهشتة وىَ ضةندىَ كى ثمةيا تىشبىونا بانكًَن ذيَطرتى بؤ ذناظضىونا دارايى طةلةك يا كًَنة ب ريَكا بكار ئًنانا مىديَال)Sherrod(ى. بةىلَ ب ريَكا بكارئًنانا مىديَال )Kida(ى ئةجنامان دياركر كى بانكًَن ذيَطرتى تىشى ذناظضىونا دارايى نة و ب ثمةيةكا طةلةك بمند. لطىرةيى ظان ئةجنامان باشرتة مىديَال)Kida(ى نة هًَتة بكارئًنان ذاليىَ بانكًَن ذيَطرتى ظة, ضىنكى ئةجنامًَن مىديَال ناظربى ناطىجنن دطةل كارىَ ظان بانكًَن دياركرى. ئةجنامًَن ظىَ ظةكىلًنىَ يا مفادارة بؤ ريَظةبةرا, هةظجشكا, وةبةرهًَنةرا و جوًَن ثةيىةنديدار بؤ زانًنا شًانًَن بانكان لصةر بةردةوامًىَ .

املستخلص: تتسم بيئة األعمال يف الوقت احلاضر مبخاطر متنوعة ودرجة عالية من الالتأكد بسب العوملة و التحرر التجاري. ولتجنب هذه املخاطر اصبحت من املهم جدا ان تركز املؤسسات املالية اكثر على موضوع تقييم االداء و تستعمل طرق و ادوات للكشف املبكر عن الفشل املايل. وبالتايل فأن موضوع التنبؤ بالفشل املايل اصبحت تدرس بشكل كبري يف احلقول املالية. ومن هذا املنطلق، حياول هذا البحث التحقق فيما اذا كانت املصارف عينة البحث املدرجة يف سوق العراق لالوراق املالية معرضة للفشل املايل باستخدام منوذجي Sherrod و Kida. ومت اختيار 61 مصرفا من جمموع 32 مصرف املدرجة يف سوق العراق لالوراق املالية ومت االعتماد على قوائمها املالية للحصول على البيانات. وقد توصلت هذه الدراسة اىل جمموعة من النتائج:ان درجة تعرض املصارف املبحوثة للفشل املايل منخفضة جدا حسب منوذج Sherrod. اما بالنسبة لنموذج Kida، فقد اظهرت النتائج ان املصارف عينة البحث معرضة و بشكل كبري للفشل املايل يف املستقبل القريب. كما تبني من خالل النتائج ان منوذج Kida ال ميكن اعتمادها من قبل هذه املصارف ألن نتائج هذا النموذج ال تتطابق مع عمل هذه املصارف. ان نتائج هذا البحث تكون مفيدة للمدراء، املسامهني، املستثمرين و اجلهات املعنية للتعرف على مدى قدرة املصارف على االستمرارية.

47