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Climate Change and Carbon Markets: Implications for Developing Countries Climate change and carbon markets: implications for developing countries Carlos Ludeña, Carlos de Miguel and Andrés Schuschny ABSTRACT While the Kyoto Protocol provided a framework for reducing the greenhouse gas emissions of industrialized nations, current climate change negotiations envisage future commitments for major CO2 emitters among developing countries. This document uses an updated version of the GTAP-E general equilibrium model to analyse the economic implications of reducing carbon emissions under different carbon trading scenarios. The participation of developing countries such as China and India would reduce emissions trading costs. Impacts in Latin America would depend on whether a country is an energy exporter or importer and whether the United States reduces emissions. Welfare impacts might be negative depending on the carbon trading scheme adopted and a country’s trading partners. KEYWORDS Climate change, environmental agreements, carbon dioxide, markets, tradable emission entitlements, economic aspects, environmental statistics, developing countries, Latin America JEL CLASSIFICATION C68, D58, H23, Q52, Q54, Q56 AUTHORS Carlos Ludeña is a climate change economist with the Climate Change and Sustainability Division of the Inter-American Development Bank (idb). [email protected] Carlos de Miguel heads the Policies for Sustainable Development Unit of the eclac Sustainable Development and Human Settlements Division. [email protected] Andrés Schuschny is a staff member with the Natural Resources and Energy Unit of theeclac Natural Resources and Infrastructure Division. [email protected] 62 CEPAL REVIEW 116 • AUGUST 2015 I Introduction Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing 35% to 40%, depending on whether land-use change humanity in the twenty-first century. The scientific and forestry are included. community has reached a consensus that the planet is Non-Annex I countries, including those of Latin warming at the fastest rate in 10,000 years, and that this America and the Caribbean, do not have any greenhouse change in temperature has been caused by the increase in gas emissions restrictions or commitments other than carbon dioxide (co2) and other greenhouse gases in the those enshrined in voluntary agreements. However, they planet’s atmosphere, especially over the last 100 years. do have financial incentives to develop projects that This increase is fundamentally due to anthropogenic reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to receive activities. The level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere carbon credits, which they can then sell on to Annex is currently equivalent to almost 400 parts per million I countries to help these achieve their greenhouse (ppm) of co2, compared with only 280 ppm before the gas emissions targets. At the same time, the scale of Industrial Revolution, and is expected to rise by over the emissions cuts required means that any effective 2 ppm per year if the current trend holds (Stern, 2007). multilateral agreement would probably have to involve On the basis of a doubling of pre-industrial levels of both developed and developing countries. Thus, there greenhouse gases, most climate models project a rise in has been an expectation that recent and upcoming United global mean temperatures of something in the range of Nations climate change conferences should provide an 2 ºC to 5 ºC over the next few decades. For example, a effective international response to climate change entailing stabilization level of 450 ppm of co2 equivalent would further commitments from Annex I countries under the mean a 78% likelihood of a temperature increase in Kyoto Protocol and from unfccc countries generally. excess of 2 ºC and an 18% likelihood of an increase of Consequently, the negotiations for the second (post- 3 ºC or over (Stern, 2007). Alterations in precipitation 2012) commitment period under the Protocol have been patterns, the reduction of the world’s ice masses and snow introducing variants into the global regime that are not deposits, rising sea levels and changes in the intensity only deepening the obligations of developed countries and frequency of extreme weather events are other but may also give rise to commitments for different expected consequences (ipcc, 2007). Climate change will sectors or activities worldwide and for developing significantly affect economic activity, the population and countries on the basis of the criteria of responsibility and ecosystems and will play an essential part in determining capability (Samaniego, 2009). Stern (2008) estimates the characteristics of economic development this century. that a commitment to reducing emissions by 100% by Limiting the probable rise in temperatures must 2050 will only be met if developing countries achieve involve stabilizing and reducing levels of co2 and other a 28% cut in their per capita emissions by that year. greenhouse gases. This reduction cannot be achieved Developing-country participation will also lower the by one nation or government alone, but requires a cost of reducing emissions. De la Torre, Fajnzylber and commitment from all governments around the world. Nash (2009) argue that a globally efficient solution is The United Nations Framework Convention on only possible if greenhouse gas reductions are achieved Climate Change (unfccc), the Kyoto Protocol and other in low-cost reduction countries, and not necessarily in treaties provide a framework that supports international those countries with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. cooperation on this issue. The Kyoto Protocol (unfccc, Springer (2003) shows that a common finding of all 1998) established a legal obligation for some industrialized studies surveyed is that emissions trading lowers the cost countries (called Annex I countries) to reduce greenhouse of achieving the Kyoto Protocol commitments and also gases (ghgs), as well as mechanisms such as emissions that the withdrawal of the United States from the Kyoto trading, the Clean Development Mechanism, and Protocol has large implications for its effectiveness and the Joint Implementation to help these countries reduce emissions trading scheme that it implements. Zhang (2004), their greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, there are meanwhile, explores the extension of the Kyoto Protocol 193 parties (192 States and 1 regional economic integration to developing countries, especially China, demonstrating organization) to the Kyoto Protocol to the unfccc. The that broad participation by developing countries share of of Annex I parties’ ghg emissions varies from would reduce Annex I countries’ compliance costs. CLIMATE CHANGE AND CARBON MARKETS: IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES • CARLOS LUDEÑA, CARLOS DE MIGUEL AND ANDRÉS SCHUSCHNY CEPAL REVIEW 116 • AUGUST 2015 63 Despite the extensive climate change economics at more than 30% (iea, 2010a), it is important for these modelling literature, there have been few studies with countries to be included in any international effort to reduce extensive coverage of Latin America. Medvedev and co2 emissions. The analysis then goes on to consider Van der Mensbrugghe (2010) try to link macro impacts Latin American and Caribbean countries, including Brazil to income distribution. They use results from a global and Mexico; while its current contribution to global co2 general equilibrium model with an integrated climate and greenhouse gas emissions is small (less than 6%, or module in tandem with a comprehensive compilation around 8% when emissions associated with changes in of household surveys to analyse within-country impacts land use are considered), the region is very vulnerable in Latin America and the Caribbean. They find that, to climate change (eclac, 2009a and 2009b). relative to their share of global emissions, the region’s Latin America and the Caribbean does not speak with countries are disproportionately affected by climate change a single voice in international negotiations, something damages. Although welfare declines for all households, that may be accounted for by the heterogeneity of agricultural households receive some benefit from rising the region’s countries. Some, such as the Bolivarian food prices. Due to its low carbon intensity, the region Republic of Venezuela, Mexico and the Plurinational stands to gain substantially from efficient mitigation or State of Bolivia, are energy exporters, while others, a cap-and-trade system. such as Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica and Mexico, are major The present study analyses the potential economic players in the Clean Development Mechanism. Chile and impacts of co2 emissions reduction in developing countries, Mexico are members of the Organization for Economic with particular reference to Latin America. On the basis Cooperation and Development (oecd), while Brazil and of an analysis of the interactions between the economy, Mexico are part of the g5. On the other hand, small energy and the environment, it assesses the economic and island States in the Caribbean are extremely vulnerable welfare effects of curbing greenhouse gas emissions under to climate change. The present document makes an different trading schemes. Simulations of carbon trading effort to address the economic implications of different markets model leading options under discussion in the emissions trading scenarios at the country level in this climate change negotiations, including those involving heterogeneous group. contributions from major emitters in developing countries Section II reviews the Kyoto Protocol and mechanisms
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