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Analysis of Movie Popularity and Academy Award Nomination

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Analysis of Movie Popularity and Academy Award Nomination Undergraduate/Graduate Category: Social Sciences, Business and Law Degree Level: Undergraduate Abstract ID# 1413 Empirical Analysis of Movie Popularity and Academy Award Nomination. Daryl Chingono Abstract This research examines the relationship in consumer behavior and that of The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, awarding and nomination processes. The American film industry is the most popular film industry, and is the highest grossing film industry in the world. A lack of diversity and representation is a potential loss in revenue. The research uses OLS regression model analysis of time-series data, over 20 years for the highest grossing films. The model uses variables which measure consumer sentiment, profitability, genre and accreditation of films. In doing so it is possible to also observe the effects of systemic inequality within the film industry on film earnings as well as consumer behavior vs Academy Award recognition. Results Conclusion Figure 2: Table 2. Summary statistics: [1995 - 2005] • Major and Mini-major film studio funding also has an effect on the gross box mean sd skewness kurtosis min median max office earnings of a film. Introduction Rank of film 50.5 28.87 0 1.8 1 50.5 100 • In order to deal with the diversity issue in the film industry, change must be made Adjusted Total Domestic Gross Earning 58250907 56992604 3.46 24.43 7808105 39500000 684000000 with the other variables that influence gross earnings and award nomination of a The Academy Awards, or Oscars, is an annual American awards ceremony hosted by the Academy of Year 2005 6.06 0 1.79 1995 2005 2015 film. Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMAPS) to recognize excellence in cinematic achievements in the film • These factors will also need to be taken into account when making policy changes Number of Academy Award Nominations 0.68 1.92 3.63 17.23 0 0 14 industry. The Oscars have 24 categories and winners are awarded a copy of a statuette. The awards hold addressing diversity within the film industry. significant value as they are voted on by peers in the film industry that hold membership within the Best Film, =1 if Yes, 0 if No 0.01 0.1 10.1 103.01 0 0 1 AMPAS. For the 88th Academy Awards, many media outlets observed a lack of diversity amongst the Best Director, =1 if Yes, 0 if No 0.01 0.1 10.1 103.01 0 0 1 nominees in major categories for a second year running. In response, many called to boycott the event for Best Actor, =1 if Yes, 0 if No 0.01 0.09 10.37 108.54 0 0 1 the lack of recognition for people of color. The Academy has since reformed their membership structure Best Actress, =1 if Yes, 0 if No 0.01 0.09 10.98 121.54 0 0 1 with the goal of increasing the number of women and minority members by 2020. Hollywood is the most Best Supporting Actor, =1 if Yes, 0 if No 0.01 0.08 11.71 138.01 0 0 1 popular film industry with the highest number of screens, and is the highest grossing film industry in the Best Supporting Actress, =1 if Yes, 0 if No 0.01 0.09 10.66 114.68 0 0 1 world. It grossed $10.4 billion in the year 2014 from 702 movies released in that year. A lack in diversity is Best Screen Play Adapted, =1 if Yes, 0 if No 0.01 0.09 10.37 108.54 0 0 1 a potential loss in revenue. Looking at consumer preferences compared to the views of the academy could shed light on the issue of diversity in the film industry. Best Original Screenplay, =1 if Yes, 0 if No 0.01 0.1 10.1 103.01 0 0 1 Best Original Score, =1 if Yes, 0 if No 0.01 0.09 10.66 114.68 0 0 1 Best Original Song,=1 if Yes, 0 if No 0.01 0.09 10.98 121.54 0 0 1 Number of Golden Globe Awards 0.1 0.46 6.29 54.42 0 0 7 Number of Critics Choice Awards 0.08 0.38 6.24 48.23 0 0 4 Goal Number of Screen Actors Guild Awards 0.03 0.19 6.77 53.24 0 0 2 Number of BAFTA Awards 0.07 0.38 7.39 71.67 0 0 6 The responsibility of diversity does not fall solely on the Academy. The film industry as a whole is known Mini-major film Studio 0.14 0.35 2.02 5.1 0 0 1 to have a lack of diverse roles for people of color both on and off the camera. This points to a possible Major film Studio 0.8 0.4 -1.49 3.21 0 1 1 larger systemic issue that should also be explored when addressing such an issue. The Academy President Cheryl Boone Isaacs was quoted saying "Of course I am disappointed, but this is not to take African-American/ Black role 0.02 0.12 7.91 63.64 0 0 1 away the greatness (of the films nominated). This has been a great year in film. However, we are not Asian/ Asian-American role 0.01 0.08 12.12 148.01 0 0 1 stopping, we are moving forward and will continue to move forward with conversation and action. That Observations 2000 needs to happen not just within the Academy, but the entire motion picture industry.” Note: [Number of Observations is 2000] Source: [IMDb, Box Office Mojo [1995 - 2005] Method Figure 3: Table 3. Correlation table for Variables [1995 - 2005] The data set includes films from the top 100 grossing films (adjusted for inflation) from 1995 – 2015 collected rank adjgross Year acadnom bstflm bstdir bstact bstactrss bstsupact bstsupactrss bstadscr bstogscr bstogsng ggaward sagaward BAFTA mini major minblk minasn from The Internet Movie Database and Box Office Mojo. For the purpose of this paper, the data only consists of rank 1 domestic box office revenue. This research seeks to explore the relationship between the variables being adjgross -0.7407977 1 analyzed. Year -0.00000682 0.1530685 1 acadnom -0.2068708 0.344011 -0.0025608 1 bstflm -0.0738858 0.0821026 -0.0032779 0.4181369 1 Figure 1: Table 1 of Variable Descriptions bstdir -0.084926 0.1029919 -0.0032779 0.4130199 0.646633 1 bstact -0.0032239 0.0246921 0.0041157 0.3309526 0.1459657 0.1977457 1 Description Variable bstactrss -0.0140841 0.0300933 -0.0132017 0.2175937 0.1005669 0.0458521 0.0474864 1 Rank of film rank bstsupact -0.0404522 0.0604211 0.0074385 0.2355386 0.1081198 0.1663402 0.1113286 0.0554372 1 Adjusted Total Domestic Gross Earning adjgross bstsupactrss -0.0275594 0.0306398 0.0025231 0.3148127 0.2036223 0.0972502 -0.0088888 0.1068897 0.0534499 1 bstadscr -0.050612 0.0593947 0.0140836 0.3152067 0.3530856 0.4048655 0.0439777 -0.0086363 0.1710472 0.2093297 1 Number of Theaters that played film cinemaflm bstogscr 0.0147762 0.0118092 -0.0000386 0.2876543 0.293266 0.141823 0.0941858 0.1005669 0.2245607 0.0440641 -0.0093742 1 Year year bstogsng -0.0862497 0.1784733 -0.001791 0.1649055 0.1005669 0.1005669 0.0474864 -0.0081652 -0.0076662 -0.008404 0.1036092 -0.0088628 1 ggaward -0.1225563 0.2467239 -0.026441 0.6243751 0.3440239 0.3762388 0.2327967 0.2249985 0.1923067 0.2967973 0.3319281 0.1292584 0.3064708 1 Academy Award Nominations acadnom sagaward -0.0693615 0.0950563 -0.0219834 0.4864457 0.3521063 0.299552 0.3889289 0.3842022 0.2894141 0.23421 0.2002557 0.1944434 0.0139488 0.44615 1 Best Film bstflm BAFTA -0.0873526 0.1398928 0.0424952 0.5772467 0.450645 0.450645 0.2229974 0.1529585 0.1197856 0.2573875 0.329729 0.2945639 0.1670561 0.492665 0.3164386 1 mini 0.1251415 -0.0849167 0.043713 0.0618382 0.0573912 0.0434373 0.0609341 0.0082574 0.029526 0.064711 0.0466211 0.0713451 -0.021991 0.042336 0.0864768 0.0521381 1 Best Director bstdir major -0.1613869 0.0986871 -0.0499648 -0.0813142 -0.0483697 -0.036155 -0.077203 -0.0472103 -0.0418391 -0.0561607 -0.0396162 -0.1216574 0.0322241 -0.04258 -0.1161883 -0.0607904 -0.792746 1 Best Actor bstact minblk -0.0537335 0.061107 0.024992 0.2257553 0.1078695 0.0278207 0.0702168 0.1189007 0.0817654 0.1571047 0.0702168 0.0278207 0.0321381 0.100971 0.2508333 0.0498629 0.0152749 -0.0148751 1 minasn -0.0719655 0.1273539 0.0212314 0.279408 0.0522124 0.2329607 0.0539681 -0.0074045 -0.006952 0.055857 0.1775676 0.1124618 0.1232007 0.225899 0.0495457 0.2181523 -0.0170032 -0.0025073 0.0375738 1 Best Actress bstactrss Note: [Number of Observations: 2000] Best Supporting Actor bstsupact Source: [Internet Movie Database, Box Office Mojo] Best Supporting Actress bstsupactrss Best Screen Play Adapted bstadscr References Best Original Screenplay bstogscr Best Original Score bstogscor Box Office Mojo. boxofficemojo.com, Inc, 2016. Web. 12 Mar. 2016. <http://www.boxofficemojo.com/> Best Original Song bstogsng Kaplan, David (2006) And the Oscar goes to… A logistic regression model for predicting academy award results. Number of Golden Globe Awards ggaward Journal of Applied economics and Policy 25: 23–41. Number of Critics Choice Awards ccaward Krauss, J; Nann, S; Simon, D; Fischbach, K; and Gloor, Peter, "Predicting Movie Success and Academy Awards through Number of Screen Actors Guild Awards sagward Sentiment and Social Network Analysis" (2008).
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