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Is There Space for My Satellite?

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Is There Space for My Satellite? PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Is There Space for my Satellite? Navigating the commercial satellite launch process This webinar presentation is brought to you by Avascent Analytics and the Satellite Industry Association AVASCENT ANALYTICS Analytic arm of Avascent, Analytics develops robust global market data forecasts built on state of the art visualizations. AVASCENT AVASCENT INTERNATIONAL Growth-oriented management A global network of consulting firm with deep senior level strategic market expertise and rigorous advisors from the highest analytical methods. levels of gov’t, business, intel, and int’l affairs A RECOGNIZED FOCAL POINT FOR WITH ESTABLISHED ACTIVE THE SATELLITE INDUSTRY WORKING GROUPS Representing & advocating industry positions with key involved with regulatory issues; government policy makers on Capitol Hill and with the White House, services, public safety, export control policy, FCC and most Executive Branch departments & agencies. and international trade issues. FORMED BY SEVERAL MAJOR SATELLITE COMPANIES as a forum to discuss issues and develop industry-wide positions on shared business, regulatory and policy interests. AVASCENT | 2 The discussion will be moderated by Avascent’s Jonathan Beland and Caitlin Kennedy, and will feature a discussion with special guest Sam Black from Satellite Industry Association (SIA) Jonathan Beland Senior Market Analyst, FCC Orbital Intelligence Product Manager Jonathan specializes in providing market analysis and subject matter expertise pertaining to the space and telecoms industry. Jonathan has extensive experience providing government and commercial clients with insight on global launch and satellite manufacturing capabilities. Caitlin Kennedy Senior Market Analyst, FCC Orbital Intelligence Product Manager Caitlin specializes in maintaining the FCC Orbital Intelligence database. She has been with Avascent since August 2012, and has since heavily contributed to maintaining and enhancing Avascent Analytics’ suite of U.S. and global defense systems market analysis products. Sam Black Senior Director of Policy, Satellite Industry Association (SIA) Sam Black supports SIA’s work on government services, regulatory, legislative, homeland security, export control and trade issues of critical importance to the Association’s members. Sam joined SIA following more than two years as a Research Associate at the Stimson Center, a nonprofit, non- partisan think tank specializing in international security issues. Sam holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Government and Politics and a Master’s Degree in Public Policy, both from the University of Maryland. He was a recipient of the Capt. William P. Cole III Peace Fellowship from the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy from 2007 to 2008. AVASCENT | 3 Space is becoming more crowded all the time, and space industry professionals must keep abreast of a number of orbit-related issues 1. What are industry revenues and which satellites drive these? 2. How is the industry changing over the next decade? 3. What about all of these new constellations of small satellites we hear about? 4. If I want to launch or invest in a new satellite or satellite venture, what do I need to know about getting on orbit? AVASCENT | 4 Space & Satellite Industry Revenues Telecommunications • Television • Telephone • Broadband • Aviation • Maritime Non-Satellite Satellite Services • Road and Rail Industry $322.7B $122.9B Earth Observation $119.7B Global Space • Agriculture Industry • Change Detection • Disaster Mitigation $203B • Meteorology Satellite 1% • Resources Industry Growth Science (63% of Space 2013 − 2014 • Earth Science Industry) • Space Science National Security Ground Equipment $15.9B $58.3B 4% Satellite Manufacturing Core of the Space Launch Industry Industrial Base Consumer Equipment Growth • Sat TV, radio, and broadband equipment Network • Gateways • NOCs 2013 − 2014 • GNSS stand-alone units & in-vehicle systems Equipment • VSATs • SNG equipment Prepared by: Notes: Network operations centers (NOCs), satellite news gathering (SNG), very small aperture terminal (VSAT) equipment, global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) Satellites on Orbit Operational Satellites by Function (as of December 31, 2014) Meteorology Scientific • 1,261 operating satellites as Commercial 2% Military Surveillance Communications of year-end 2014 5% » >50% are communications 8% satellites Navigation 8% 38% » 38% are commercial 1,261 communications satellites Total Operational • 57 countries operate at 11% Satellites R&D least one satellite (some as part of regional consortia) 14% Earth Observation 14% Services Government Communications Prepared by: Source: The Tauri Group. Note: “Earth Observation Services” is new label for what was formerly referred to as “Remote Sensing” (this is a definitional change only) Global Satellite Services Revenue $140 Earth $120 Observation $100 Mobile $80 4% $60 Fixed $ Billions $40 2013 − 2014 Consumer $20 Global Growth $0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Growth Rate 10% 7% 9% 5% 5% 4% Total $92.8 $99.2 $107.8 $113.5 $118.6 $122.9 Consumer $75.3 $80.9 $88.6 $93.3 $98.1 $100.9 Satellite TV (DBS/DTH) $71.8 $76.9 $84.4 $88.4 $92.6 $95.0 The U.S. share of Satellite Radio (DARS) $2.5 $2.8 $3.0 $3.4 $3.8 $4.2 satellite services Satellite Broadband (3) $1.0 $1.2 $1.2 $1.5 $1.7 $1.8 revenue in 2014 Fixed $14.4 $15.0 $15.7 $16.4 $16.4 $17.1 was Transponder Agreements (1) $11.0 $11.1 $11.4 $11.8 $11.8 $12.3 Managed Services (2) $3.4 $3.9 $4.3 $4.6 $4.6 $4.8 Mobile $2.2 $2.3 $2.4 $2.4 $2.6 $3.3 41% Voice $0.7 $0.7 $0.7 $0.7 $0.8 $0.9 Data $1.5 $1.6 $1.7 $1.8 $1.8 $2.3 Earth Observation $1.0 $1.0 $1.1 $1.3 $1.5 $1.6 Prepared by: Notes: Numbers may not sum exactly due to rounding. (1) Includes capacity for DTH satellite TV platforms. (2) Includes VSAT networks. (3) Improved 2014 data results in understatement of broadband growth rate from 2013. Consumer Satellite Services The consumer services segment, consisting of satellite television, radio, and broadband, grew by 3% and was the largest contributor to overall satellite services revenues Satellite TV Services Satellite Satellite Radio • Satellite TV services (DBS/DTH) account for Radio ($4B) Broadband ($2B) • Satellite radio (DARS) revenues 77% of all satellite services revenues, and grew by 10% in 2014 94% of consumer revenues • Satellite radio subscribers grew • About 230 million satellite TV subscribers 7% in 2014 to 27.3 million worldwide, driven by growth in emerging • Primarily U.S. customer base markets • 42% of global revenues attributed to U.S. $100.9B Satellite • More HD channels added, driving premium Consumer Services service revenues up Revenue in 2014 Satellite Broadband » First commercial 4K Ultra HD (UHD) channel • Over 1.6 million subscribers, launched in U.S. in late 2014 mostly in the U.S. • More UHD channels to be launched in 2015, $95B • Revenue grew slightly faster than live broadcasts seen as main driver Satellite TV subscribership • Compression technologies continue to improve; near-term possibility of 2.5 times bandwidth savings Prepared by: What do the next ten years look like? The number of communications satellites is forecast to increase substantially in the 2015- 2025 timeframe New Satellites 2015-2025, by Service Type 1,200 1,000 Segment 4 800 Segment 3 600 400 Communications Satellites will # of Satellites Launched Satellites of # comprise the majority of new payloads 200 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Classified Communications Early Warning ISR Meteorology On-Orbit Servicing PNT (Navigation) Science Space Station Habitat Survey Transport AVASCENT | 9 Consumer Broadband Over Satellite • Keys to success for today’s satellite broadband: 1990s • Comparable to terrestrial • Large constellations proposed, all canceled » Comparable to cable and fiber in terms of speed and • Expensive technology price • Cost-effective terrestrial competition 2000s » Available nationwide, not just in select areas • Smaller regional systems proposed and deployed • Maturation and combining of advanced technologies » Wildblue (frequency reuse, spot beams, and on-board » Spaceway • Technical success, test bed for new processing) defined new, high throughput satellites technologies, bandwidth cost reduction (HTS) • Acquisitions by established players Present • Substantial reduction in cost per unit of throughput • Five major systems today and expanding: » Eutelsat Tooway, HughesNet, ViaSat Exede, • Growing demand and customer confidence due to Inmarsat Global Xpress, O3b high data rates and reliable service • Four providers affiliated with established satellite operators (DTH, FSS, or MSS) » Satellite broadband operator ranked first in peak period • 50% revenue growth over 5 years download speeds among 14 terrestrial and satellite • Subscribers grew 14% annually, tracking the broadband providers in the FCC 2013 and 2014 revenue growth reports “Measuring Broadband America” Prepared by: Case Study: Very Small Satellites • Continued and growing interest in inexpensive very Number of CubeSats Launched by Year (2005-2014) small satellites 140 • CubeSats are an established “kit” form of very small 120 satellite in use for academic, government, and, 100 increasingly, commercial purposes 80 » 130 CubeSats were launched in 2014, up from 91 in 2013, with 84 sent into orbit via ISS (28 CubeSats lost in Antares 60 failure in October) 28 lost in launch failure 40 » 101 commercial CubeSats launched in 2014 for Earth observation services and communications, up from 8 in 2013. 20 The vast majority
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