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Is There Space for my Satellite? Navigating the commercial satellite launch process This webinar presentation is brought to you by Avascent Analytics and the Satellite Industry Association

AVASCENT ANALYTICS Analytic arm of Avascent, Analytics develops robust global market data forecasts built on state of the art visualizations. AVASCENT AVASCENT INTERNATIONAL Growth-oriented management A global network of consulting firm with deep senior level strategic market expertise and rigorous advisors from the highest analytical methods. levels of gov’t, business, intel, and int’l affairs

A RECOGNIZED FOCAL POINT FOR WITH ESTABLISHED ACTIVE THE SATELLITE INDUSTRY WORKING GROUPS Representing & advocating industry positions with key involved with regulatory issues; government policy makers on Capitol Hill and with the White House, services, public safety, export control policy, FCC and most Executive Branch departments & agencies. and international trade issues.

FORMED BY SEVERAL MAJOR SATELLITE COMPANIES as a forum to discuss issues and develop industry-wide positions on shared business, regulatory and policy interests.

AVASCENT | 2 The discussion will be moderated by Avascent’s Jonathan Beland and Caitlin Kennedy, and will feature a discussion with special guest Sam Black from Satellite Industry Association (SIA)

Jonathan Beland Senior Market Analyst, FCC Orbital Intelligence Product Manager Jonathan specializes in providing market analysis and subject matter expertise pertaining to the space and telecoms industry. Jonathan has extensive experience providing government and commercial clients with insight on global launch and satellite manufacturing capabilities.

Caitlin Kennedy Senior Market Analyst, FCC Orbital Intelligence Product Manager Caitlin specializes in maintaining the FCC Orbital Intelligence database. She has been with Avascent since August 2012, and has since heavily contributed to maintaining and enhancing Avascent Analytics’ suite of U.S. and global defense systems market analysis products.

Sam Black Senior Director of Policy, Satellite Industry Association (SIA) Sam Black supports SIA’s work on government services, regulatory, legislative, homeland security, export control and trade issues of critical importance to the Association’s members. Sam joined SIA following more than two years as a Research Associate at the Stimson Center, a nonprofit, non- partisan think tank specializing in international security issues. Sam holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Government and Politics and a Master’s Degree in Public Policy, both from the University of Maryland. He was a recipient of the Capt. William P. Cole III Peace Fellowship from the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy from 2007 to 2008.

AVASCENT | 3 Space is becoming more crowded all the time, and space industry professionals must keep abreast of a number of orbit-related issues

1. What are industry revenues and which satellites drive these? 2. How is the industry changing over the next decade? 3. What about all of these new constellations of small satellites we hear about? 4. If I want to launch or invest in a new satellite or satellite venture, what do I need to know about getting on orbit?

AVASCENT | 4 Space & Satellite Industry Revenues

Telecommunications • Television • Telephone • Broadband • Aviation • Maritime Non-Satellite Satellite Services • Road and Rail Industry $322.7B $122.9B Earth Observation $119.7B Global Space • Agriculture Industry • Change Detection • Disaster Mitigation $203B • Meteorology Satellite 1% • Resources Industry Growth Science (63% of Space 2013 − 2014 • Earth Science Industry) • Space Science National Security Ground Equipment $15.9B $58.3B 4% Satellite Manufacturing Core of the Space Launch Industry Industrial Base Consumer Equipment Growth • Sat TV, radio, and broadband equipment Network • Gateways • NOCs 2013 − 2014 • GNSS stand-alone units & in-vehicle systems Equipment • VSATs • SNG equipment Prepared by: Notes: Network operations centers (NOCs), satellite news gathering (SNG), very small aperture terminal (VSAT) equipment, global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) Satellites on Orbit

Operational Satellites by Function (as of December 31, 2014) Meteorology Scientific • 1,261 operating satellites as Commercial 2% Military Surveillance Communications of year-end 2014 5% » >50% are communications 8% satellites Navigation 8% 38% » 38% are commercial 1,261 communications satellites Total Operational • 57 countries operate at 11% Satellites R&D least one satellite (some as part of regional consortia) 14% Earth Observation 14% Services Government Communications Prepared by: Source: The Tauri Group. Note: “Earth Observation Services” is new label for what was formerly referred to as “Remote Sensing” (this is a definitional change only) Global Satellite Services Revenue

$140 Earth $120 Observation $100 Mobile $80 4% $60 Fixed $Billions $40 2013 − 2014 Consumer $20 Global Growth $0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Growth Rate 10% 7% 9% 5% 5% 4% Total $92.8 $99.2 $107.8 $113.5 $118.6 $122.9 Consumer $75.3 $80.9 $88.6 $93.3 $98.1 $100.9 Satellite TV (DBS/DTH) $71.8 $76.9 $84.4 $88.4 $92.6 $95.0 The U.S. share of Satellite Radio (DARS) $2.5 $2.8 $3.0 $3.4 $3.8 $4.2 satellite services Satellite Broadband (3) $1.0 $1.2 $1.2 $1.5 $1.7 $1.8 revenue in 2014 Fixed $14.4 $15.0 $15.7 $16.4 $16.4 $17.1 was Transponder Agreements (1) $11.0 $11.1 $11.4 $11.8 $11.8 $12.3 Managed Services (2) $3.4 $3.9 $4.3 $4.6 $4.6 $4.8 Mobile $2.2 $2.3 $2.4 $2.4 $2.6 $3.3 41% Voice $0.7 $0.7 $0.7 $0.7 $0.8 $0.9 Data $1.5 $1.6 $1.7 $1.8 $1.8 $2.3 Earth Observation $1.0 $1.0 $1.1 $1.3 $1.5 $1.6 Prepared by: Notes: Numbers may not sum exactly due to rounding. (1) Includes capacity for DTH satellite TV platforms. (2) Includes VSAT networks. (3) Improved 2014 data results in understatement of broadband growth rate from 2013. Consumer Satellite Services

The consumer services segment, consisting of satellite television, radio, and broadband, grew by 3% and was the largest contributor to overall satellite services revenues

Satellite TV Services Satellite Satellite Radio • Satellite TV services (DBS/DTH) account for Radio ($4B) Broadband ($2B) • Satellite radio (DARS) revenues 77% of all satellite services revenues, and grew by 10% in 2014 94% of consumer revenues • Satellite radio subscribers grew • About 230 million satellite TV subscribers 7% in 2014 to 27.3 million worldwide, driven by growth in emerging • Primarily U.S. customer base markets • 42% of global revenues attributed to U.S. $100.9B Satellite • More HD channels added, driving premium Consumer Services service revenues up Revenue in 2014 Satellite Broadband » First commercial 4K Ultra HD (UHD) channel • Over 1.6 million subscribers, launched in U.S. in late 2014 mostly in the U.S. • More UHD channels to be launched in 2015, $95B • Revenue grew slightly faster than live broadcasts seen as main driver Satellite TV subscribership • Compression technologies continue to improve; near-term possibility of 2.5 times bandwidth savings

Prepared by: What do the next ten years look like? The number of communications satellites is forecast to increase substantially in the 2015- 2025 timeframe

New Satellites 2015-2025, by Service Type

1,200

1,000

Segment 4 800 Segment 3

600

400 Communications Satellites will

# of Satellites Launched Satellites of # comprise the majority of new payloads 200

0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Classified Communications Early Warning ISR Meteorology On-Orbit Servicing PNT (Navigation) Science Space Station Habitat Survey Transport

AVASCENT | 9 Consumer Broadband Over Satellite

• Keys to success for today’s satellite broadband: 1990s • Comparable to terrestrial • Large constellations proposed, all canceled » Comparable to cable and fiber in terms of speed and • Expensive technology price • Cost-effective terrestrial competition 2000s » Available nationwide, not just in select areas • Smaller regional systems proposed and deployed • Maturation and combining of advanced technologies » Wildblue (frequency reuse, spot beams, and on-board » Spaceway • Technical success, test bed for new processing) defined new, high throughput satellites technologies, bandwidth cost reduction (HTS) • Acquisitions by established players Present • Substantial reduction in cost per unit of throughput • Five major systems today and expanding: » Eutelsat Tooway, HughesNet, ViaSat Exede, • Growing demand and customer confidence due to Inmarsat Global Xpress, O3b high data rates and reliable service • Four providers affiliated with established satellite operators (DTH, FSS, or MSS) » Satellite broadband operator ranked first in peak period • 50% revenue growth over 5 years download speeds among 14 terrestrial and satellite • Subscribers grew 14% annually, tracking the broadband providers in the FCC 2013 and 2014 revenue growth reports “Measuring Broadband America” Prepared by: Case Study: Very Small Satellites • Continued and growing interest in inexpensive very Number of CubeSats Launched by Year (2005-2014) small satellites 140 • CubeSats are an established “kit” form of very small 120

satellite in use for academic, government, and, 100 increasingly, commercial purposes 80 » 130 CubeSats were launched in 2014, up from 91 in 2013, with 84 sent into orbit via ISS (28 CubeSats lost in Antares 60 failure in October) 28 lost in launch failure 40 » 101 commercial CubeSats launched in 2014 for Earth

observation services and communications, up from 8 in 2013. 20 The vast majority (93) are built and operated by Planet Labs 0 » Total expenditure to build all CubeSats since 2005 estimated 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 at less than $100M » Growing concern regarding collisions with CubeSats – NASA first major operator to say it has moved satellites to avoid What is a CubeSat? CubeSats • A CubeSat is a cube-shaped satellite bus measuring 10cm on a side, with a mass of 1-2 kilograms • Commercial constellations using customized very • Can be stacked together (2U, 3U, 6U) depending on mission • Costs small satellites (under 200 kg) are in development » Low Cost: Basic 1U CubeSat bus kits can be purchased for $10,000; with » Skybox: High resolution, multispectral sensors, up to 24 sats payload development it will cost roughly $100,000 per unit planned, 2 launched to date » Moderate Cost: Boeing-built CubeSat platforms for NRO are expected to cost no more than $250,000 OneWeb: Telecommunications, function more as nodes » » Higher Cost: NASA expects that CubeSats used for planetary science compared to traditional comsats, 100s of satellites planned, missions may cost $3-$10 million zero launched to date Prepared by: What are the most pressing questions that satellite operators need answered when launching a satellite into orbit?

1. What does the current orbital situation look like?

2. Which orbital slots have been reserved?

3. Will my signal get through?

4. How does the FCC process satellite broadcast applications?

5. What is in the FCC’s mailbox?

FCC Orbital Intelligence AVASCENT | 12 What does the current orbital situation look like? (Example: Filing at “129-West”) If you’re in the satellite industry, knowing which satellites are where is fundamental to business planning

Example Questions: • What satellites and operators are at 129° WL ? • Are there pending applications to launch or move a satellite to this location? • How long did the application process take other satellite operators at 129° WL?

FCC Orbital Intelligence Outputs

Satellites Located at 129° WL Last Action Last Action Date SES-129W: GSO FSS (Ku-band) Granted Launch and Operating Authority 10/16/2012 129° WL Galaxy 12: GSO FSS (Ku-band) Special Temporary Authority 9/25/2012 Telstar 9: GSO FSS (C-band/Ku-band) Modification 7/7/2005 EchoStar 5: BSS Special Temporary Authority 6/30/2005 Regional Positioning System: RPS Granted Launch and Operating Authority 6/23/2005 Rainbow Ka 2: GSO FSS (Ka-band) Granted Launch and Operating Authority 11/21/2003 Galaxy 27: GSO FSS (C-band/Ku-band) Modification 4/1/2003 EchoStar 8: BSS Special Temporary Authority 6/20/2002 EchoStar 7: BSS Special Temporary Authority 6/6/2001 Galaxy 9: GSO FSS (C-band) Amendment 5/7/1996 CON 2: GSO FSS (unspecified) Modification 8/2/1990

AVASCENT | 13 Which orbital slots have been reserved? Improving Competitive Intelligence

• Who is filing applications for different service types? • How can I use FCC notices and industry comments to gain context for competitor behavior? • How do I keep track of competitor plans for future launches or modifications?

FCC Orbital Intelligence Outputs

Applications Filed by Applicant (2015-Present) Applications Filed by Service Type (2015-Present)

NVNG MSS Mobile Earth Station (MES) Ku-band FSS ESV DIRECTV Enterprises, LLC GSO MSS EchoStar Corporation GSO FSS (C-band/Ku-band/Ka-band) Intelsat License LLC GSO FSS (C-band/Ku-band) Airbus DS SatCom Government, Inc. Earth Stations on-board Vessels (ESV) LightSquared Subsidiary LLC Earth Station (NGSO FSS Ka-band) Row 44 Inc. Earth Station (GSO FSS Ka-band) Spectrum Five LLC Other Earth Exploration Satellite Service (EESS) DBS Expansion Band or Reverse Band… BSS; GSO FSS (Ku-band) BSS in Ka-band BSS

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

AVASCENT | 14 Case Study: Will my signal get through? Staying on top of spectrum availability

• What satellites are being operated at this orbital location? • Are any satellites going to re-locate or retire? • What operators are currently in this space? • Will my satellite be interfered with by others operators?

Ku-Band

FCC Orbital Intelligence Outputs

Spectrum Usage Orbital Location GSO FSS Operator/Applicant

Ku-Band 120° WL - 130° WL AMC-21 SES Americom, Inc. Ku-Band 120° WL - 130° WL EchoStar FSS EchoStar Satellite Corp. Ku-Band 120° WL - 130° WL EchoStar KuX EchoStar KuX Corp. Ku-Band 120° WL - 130° WL Galaxy 12 Intelsat License LLC Ku-Band 120° WL - 130° WL Galaxy 5 Hughes Communications Galaxy, Inc. Ku-Band 120° WL - 130° WL GStar II GE American Communications, Inc. Ku-Band 120° WL - 130° WL Horizons 1 Horizons Satellite, LLC Ku-Band 120° WL - 130° WL SBS 5 PanAmSat Licensee Corp.

AVASCENT | 15 How does the FCC process satellite broadcast applications? Tracking applications and stamp grants

• What applications have been filed this month? • Who is filing for what and for where? • What applications are referenced? • How long did it take for the application to be granted? • What applications is the FCC dismissing and why? • What applications have been granted this year?

FCC Orbital Intelligence Outputs Application Related Applications Corresponding FCC Files

SAT-STA-20141013-00108 SAT-STA-20140917-00101 Public Notice 14-1532 SAT-STA-20140801-00090 Stamp Grant 182014002035 SAT-STA-20140627-00081 SAT-STA-20140604-00056 SAT-STA-20140403-00037 SAT-STA-20140203-00012

AVASCENT | 16 Beyond applications: what is in the FCC’s mailbox? In addition to granting licenses to satellite operators, the FCC also serves as a clearing house for public discourse on pressing issues in the communications satellite industry

• It is important to stay tuned to ongoing conversations regarding regulation and policy changes • Understanding how consumers and services providers feel affect strategic planning Public • Some questions that can be answered by FCC Policy Comments and keeping track of public comments are: Announcement Reply • What do satellite operators think about Comments FCC regulation changes? • What does the public think about policy initiatives and/or regulation changes? • Who is having meetings with the FCC and about what topics? Policy Implemented or • Is the FCC responsive to constituent Dismissed concerns? Which ones? • What issues are most concerning for particular satellite manufacturers? • What types of technologies are satellite manufacturers interested in researching and why?

AVASCENT | 17 FCC Orbital Intelligence The comprehensive source for commercial space regulatory intelligence

Regulatory documentation is plentiful, but finding the relevant information you need is extremely time consuming and resource intensive

FCC Orbital Intelligence locates, catalogues, and cross references thousands of regulatory documents and applications from numerous sources

• Search through 30,000+ regulatory documents using numerous metrics • Data pulled from each filing is returned in an organized, sortable table • Filings notifications and summaries are automatically “pushed” to users for quick, real-time updates

FCC Orbital Intelligence AVASCENT | 18 Questions?

FCC Orbital Intelligence Senior Director of Policy Product Managers

Jonathan Beland Sam Black (202) 280-6877 [email protected] [email protected] Caitlin Kennedy (202) 280-6852 [email protected]

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