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Increased Land Subsidence and Sea-Level Rise Are Submerging Egypt’S Nile Delta Coastal Margin

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Increased Land Subsidence and Sea-Level Rise Are Submerging Egypt’S Nile Delta Coastal Margin 22–25 Oct. GSA 2017 Annual Meeting & Exposition MAY 2017 | VOL. 27, NO. 5 NO. 27, | VOL. 2017 MAY A PUBLICATION OF THE GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA® Increased Land Subsidence and Sea-Level Rise Are Submerging Egypt’s Nile Delta Coastal Margin MAY 2017 | VOLUME 27, NUMBER 5 SCIENCE 4 Increased Land Subsidence and Sea-Level Rise Are Submerging Egypt’s Nile Delta Coastal Margin GSA TODAY (ISSN 1052-5173 USPS 0456-530) prints news Jean-Daniel Stanley and Pablo L. Clemente and information for more than 26,000 GSA member readers and subscribing libraries, with 11 monthly issues (March/ Cover: Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) under con- April is a combined issue). GSA TODAY is published by The struction on the Blue Nile in northern Ethiopia, near the Sudan Geological Society of America® Inc. (GSA) with offices at border. This will be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa. 3300 Penrose Place, Boulder, Colorado, USA, and a mail- The large reservoir to be placed behind the dam will be filled dur- ing address of P.O. Box 9140, Boulder, CO 80301-9140, USA. GSA provides this and other forums for the presentation ing a 5–7-year period during which it is expected that the amount of diverse opinions and positions by scientists worldwide, of northward Nile flow to the Sudan and Egypt will be substan- regardless of race, citizenship, gender, sexual orientation, tially reduced. See related article, p. 4–11. religion, or political viewpoint. Opinions presented in this publication do not reflect official positions of the Society. © 2017 The Geological Society of America Inc. All rights reserved. Copyright not claimed on content prepared wholly by U.S. government employees within the scope of GSA 2017 Annual Meeting their employment. Individual scientists are hereby granted 12 Action Dates permission, without fees or request to GSA, to use a single figure, table, and/or brief paragraph of text in subsequent work and to make/print unlimited copies of items in GSA 13 You’re Invited! TODAY for noncommercial use in classrooms to further education and science. In addition, an author has the right to use his or her article or a portion of the article in a thesis 14 Call for Papers or dissertation without requesting permission from GSA, provided the bibliographic citation and the GSA copyright 53 GSA 2017 Organizing Committee credit line are given on the appropriate pages. For any other use, contact [email protected]. 53 GSA’s Associated Societies Program Subscriptions: GSA members: Contact GSA Sales & Service, +1-888-443-4472; +1-303-357-1000 option 3; gsaservice@ geosociety.org for information and/or to place a claim for 54 Seattle—It’s a Numbers Game non-receipt or damaged copies. Nonmembers and institutions: GSA TODAY is US$97/yr; to subscribe, or for claims for 55 Travel & Transportation non-receipt and damaged copies, contact gsaservice@ geosociety.org. Claims are honored for one year; please allow sufficient delivery time for overseas copies. Peri- 56 Hotels odicals postage paid at Boulder, Colorado, USA, and at additional mailing offices. Postmaster: Send address 58 Scientific Field Trips changes to GSA Sales & Service, P.O. Box 9140, Boulder, CO 80301-9140. 59 Event Space & Event Listing Requests GSA TODAY STAFF Executive Director and Publisher: Vicki S. McConnell 60 Short Courses Science Editors: Steven Whitmeyer, James Madison University Dept. of Geology & Environmental Science, 61 Exhibits, Advertising, and Sponsorship 800 S. 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A landmark of the Pacific Northwest, and an icon of Seattle. Increased Land Subsidence and Sea-Level Rise are Submerging Egypt’s Nile Delta Coastal Margin Jean-Daniel Stanley, Mediterranean Basin (MEDIBA) Program, 6814 Shenandoah Court, Adamstown, Maryland 21710, USA, [email protected]; and Pablo L. Clemente, Dept. of Geographic and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, 1000 Hilltop Circle, Baltimore, Maryland 21250, USA, [email protected] ABSTRACT sea-level rise responding largely to increased polar glacial ice melt and ther- Egypt’s Nile delta, only ~1 m above mal expansion of seawater associated mean sea level at the Mediterranean with global warming (Hansen et al., 2016). coast, is subject to uneven rates of sub- Less attention has been paid to other mergence. This is a response to several mechanisms that could presently play a factors leading to increasing land lower- substantial, or even greater, role in a del- ing (subsidence) of the northern delta and ta’s coastal submergence. The Nile delta’s adjacent seafloor, plus an accelerating margin in northern Egypt is examined rise in eustatic (world) sea level in the here with regard to its ongoing submer- Mediterranean. An average eustatic sea- gence by rising sea level (Shaltout et al., level rise of ~3 mm/yr represents only 2015), combined with the effects of land ~26% to 45% of total relative sea-level rise subsidence near its Mediterranean coast- measured along this margin. Three factors line and seafloor offshore (Fig. 1). The latter leading to subsidence are neotectonic low- include (1) effects of recent neotectonic ering, compaction of Holocene sequences, lowering of the delta surface associated and diminished sediment replenishment by with substrate displacement; (2) ongoing much reduced Nile flow to Egypt’s coast. compaction of the Holocene sedimentary Subsidence accounts for variable average sequence; and (3) diminished sediment land lowering of ~3.7 mm/yr of section in replenishment by the Nile River at the the NW delta, ~7.7 mm/yr in the N delta, delta coast and adjacent shelf. We propose and ~8.4 mm/yr in the NE delta, based on that these three phenomena have triggered compaction rates of strata thicknesses that a greater amount of subsidence of the decrease down-core between top and base low-elevation delta margin (~1 m above of Holocene sections in 85 drill cores dis- mean sea level [msl]) and consequent tributed along the delta margin. Among landward coastline retreat during the past present critical challenges are marked few thousand years than could have been Figure 1. Map of the Nile Basin indicating relative reduction of Nile water and sediment percentages of fresh-water flow contributed by produced during this time span by the the Blue Nile, Atbara River, and the White Nile to below the High Aswan Dam that can now increased rate of eustatic sea-level rise the Main Nile in the Sudan and Egypt. GERD— Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. reach the delta coast. It is expected that alone. Factors triggering land subsidence, problems of fresh water and energy pov- interacting with increased rise in eustatic erty in the lower Nile Basin are likely to sea level, account for what is generally political stability (La Guardia, 2016), must be seriously exacerbated in years ahead termed relative sea-level rise. already import much of its food to feed its by construction of Ethiopia’s Grand This survey highlights increased anthro- growing population concentrated in the Renaissance Dam (GERD). Completion of pogenic pressures that augment the impact Nile delta and valley. this, the biggest hydroelectric structure in of these factors and have negative conse- Africa, is this year. Egypt, the Sudan, and quences for populations in the northern BACKGROUND Ethiopia must resolve the looming crisis of delta. Of major concern is the ongoing The Nile Basin covers 3,250,000 km2 diminished Blue Nile water and sediment reduction of useable land and fresh water and extends northward across 36° of lati- distribution to the lower Nile Basin and needed for agricultural production in this tude. The delta forms at the mouth of the Egypt’s delta margin. small but vital breadbasket, one that has Nile, the world’s longest river (~6700 km), previously accounted for 60% of the coun- whose water in Egypt is derived from two INTRODUCTION try’s food production. This continued north-flowing branches, the Blue and Recent submergence of many world coastal margin submergence occurs at a White Niles, that merge as the Main Nile fluvial-marine deltaic margins is generally time when Egypt, facing increased eco- in the northern Sudan (Fig. 1). Interpreta- attributed to increased eustatic (world) nomic stress and diminished internal tions regarding Holocene depositional GSA Today, v. 27, no. 5, doi: 10.1130/GSATG312A.1. 4 GSA Today | May 2017 sequences at the delta’s coastal margin (Fig. 2A) are based on stratigraphic, sedi- mentological, petrologic, biogenic, and geochemical analyses of >3000 samples selected from 85 radiocarbon-dated drill cores (dots in Fig. 2B). These cores and supplemental study materials were exam- ined during the past 30 years by the Smithsonian Institution’s Mediterranean Basin (MEDIBA) Program (Stanley et al., 1996; Stanley and Warne, 1998).
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