African Journal of Rural Development, Vol. 3 (2): April-June 2018: pp.753-760. ISSN 2415-2838 This article is licensed under a Creative Commons license, Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) Projected water resource dynamics in the sub-humid Upper Nile Water Management Zone of Uganda, East Africa A. EGERU.,1,2* B. BARASA.,3 G. GABIRI4 and G.L.OPENJURU5 1Regional Universities Forum for Capacity Building in Agriculture (RUFORUM), P.O. Box 16811, Wandegeya, Kampala, Uganda 2Department of Environmental Management, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda 3 Department of Geography and Social Studies, Kyambogo University, P.O. Box 1, Kyambogo, Kampala, Uganda 4Department of Geography, University of Bonn, 53113 Bonn, Germany 5Gulu University, P.O. Box 166, Gulu, Uganda Corresponding author:
[email protected] ABSTRACT Projected scenarios in land, population, resource use, land use/cover, climate and urbanization over the Nile Basin reveal an acceleration and dynamical transitions in near- to-medium term. These changes have a bearing on water resource dynamics including the acceleration of the long-held yet hitherto managed conflicts over the Nile waters. This paper presents a projection of water resource dynamics in the River Nile using the Upper Nile Water Management Zone (UNWMZ) of Uganda as a reference site. Results showed variability in sub-catchment discharge into the Upper Water Management Zone. By 2040, the catchment’s water resources base will decrease by 12.6% whilst gross and net demand will increase. The projected decrease in the water discharge in the catchment can be attributed to the anticipated increase in temperatures, a decrease in rainfall and expected increase in human population in the sub-region.