Reputation, Bailouts, and Interest Rate Spread Dynamics Alessandro Dovis Rishabh Kirpalani University of Pennsylvania University of Wisconsin-Madison and NBER
[email protected] [email protected] December 2020 Abstract We propose a joint theory for interest rate dynamics and bailout decisions. In- terest rate spreads are driven by time-varying fundamentals and expectations of fu- ture bailouts from a common government. Private agents have beliefs about whether the government is a commitment type, which never bails out, or an optimizing type, which sequentially decides whether to bail out or not, and learn by observing its ac- tions. The model provides an explanation for why we often observe governments initially refusing to bail out borrowers at the beginning of a crisis even if they eventu- ally end up providing a bailout after the crisis aggravates. In the typical equilibrium outcome, spreads are non-monotonic in fundamentals, and decisions on whether to bail out individual borrowers affect the spreads of other borrowers. These dynamics are consistent with the behavior of bailouts and spreads during the recent US financial crisis and European debt crisis. Expectations about the generosity of bailouts are an important driver for interest rates on defaultable debt. For example, in the recent US financial crisis, CDS spreads of large fi- nancial institutions rose sharply after regulators let Lehman Brothers fail, a negative news event about the willingness of the government to bail out financial firms, but reversed course after the announcement of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), a positive news event, even though fundamentals arguably worsened. Similarly, EU sovereign debt spreads declined significantly after the announcement of the unlimited bond buying pro- gram (OMT) by the ECB, which was a positive news event about the willingness to pro- vide government support in the future.