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Süss Microtec Süss MicroTec Germany/ Technology Hardware & Equipment Preview note Investment Research 1 May 2014 Hold 1Q14 preview – catching up with postponed revenues Recommendation unchanged Confirm ‘Hold’/PT EUR 8 Share price: EUR 7.00 The facts: Süss MicroTec (SMHN) will report 1Q14 figures on Thursday, May 8. closing price as of 30/04/2014 Target price: EUR 8.00 Our analysis: Please remember that SMHN booked relatively low 4Q13 sales of EUR Target Price unchanged 40.6m (down 27% yoy) and pointed to revenue recognition and shipping delays. For this reason, we forecast a solid top line March quarter and expect revenues of Reuters/Bloomberg SMHNn.DE/SMH GY EUR 34.5m, up 14.6% yoy as the company should be capable of compensating for Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 29,088 the lost revenue terrain. Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 201.65 Price high 12 mth (EUR) 9.02 Please recall that SMHN has been shutting down its permanent bonder business. Price low 12 mth (EUR) 6.05 Some remaining tools shipped in this division will dilute the margin and in general, the Abs. perf. 1 mth 0.1% product mix should not allow for a strong gross result. Consequently, we forecast Abs. perf. 3 mth -3.3% a 1Q14 gross margin of 28.7%. Thanks to relative OPEX discipline, the EBIT loss Abs. perf. 12 mth -19.5% should come to ‘only’ EUR minus 1.2m. Market capitalisation (EURm) 134 We expect the 1Q14 net result to be released at EUR minus 1m. This would equal Current N° of shares (m) 19 an EPS of EUR minus 0.05. Free float 100% 1Q14 preview in EUR m 1Q14e 1Q13 yoy 4Q13 qoq FY14e FY13 yoy FY14c delta Key financials (EUR) 12/13p 12/14e 12/15e Sales (m) 134 140 180 Order intake 30.0 34.9 -14% 29.1 3% 150.0 135.0 11% n/m n/a EBITDA (m) (13) 2 15 Sales 34.5 30.1 15% 40.6 -15% 140.0 134.5 4% 145.5 -4% EBITDA margin nm 1.7% 8.5% EBIT -1.2 -3.3 -64% -6.2 -81% -2.5 -19.4 -87% -0.4 525% EBIT (m) (19) (3) 11 EBIT margin nm nm 6.1% EBIT margin -3.5% -11.0% 750bp -15.3% 1180bp -1.8% -14.4% 1270bp -0.3% -150bp Net Profit (adj.)(m) (15) (2) 8 Adj. EBIT -1.2 -3.1 -61% 0.8 n/a -2.5 -6.2 -60% -0.4 525% ROCE -16.1% -1.2% 7.4% Adj. EBIT margin -3.5% -10.3% 680bp 2.0% n/a -1.8% -4.6% 280bp -0.3% -150bp Net debt/(cash) (m) (36) (32) (31) Net Debt Equity -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 Net profit -1.0 -2.5 -60% -5.5 -82% -1.8 -16.0 -89% -1.8 0% Net Debt/EBITDA 2.8 -13.5 -2.0 EPS -0.05 -0.13 -61% -0.29 -82% -0.09 -0.84 -89% -0.08 18% Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int) 53.0 (6.5) (28.4) Sources: company data, FactSet, equinet estimates EV/Sales 0.7 0.8 0.6 EV/EBITDA nm 44.7 6.9 Management guided for new bookings in 1Q14 to be at EUR 25-35m, i.e. EUR 5m EV/EBITDA (adj.) nm 44.7 6.9 below the level of the past couple of quarters. Our respective forecast stands at mid- EV/EBIT nm nm 9.7 point, i.e. at EUR 30m (down 14% yoy). P/E (adj.) nm nm 17.8 P/BV 1.1 1.2 1.1 We expect SMHN to repeat the FY14 outlook: Management expects a top line of OpFCF yield 12.6% -3.2% -1.0% EUR 135-145m (FactSet consensus: EUR 145.5m, equinet: EUR 140.0m) and an Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% EPS (adj.) (0.80) (0.08) 0.39 EBIT of EUR minus 5m to break even (consensus EUR minus 0.4m and equinet: EUR BVPS 5.85 5.77 6.17 minus 2.5m). DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 Conclusion & Action: There might also be some catching-up effects in 2Q14, but earnings should remain relatively weak in 1H14. We bet on an improving 2H14 to some extent, however, it appears that the overall visibility is still low. The crucial question mark remains the adoption and progress of SMHN’s 3D integration / vvdsvdvsdy 12 temporary bonding technology which will hopefully materialize for the company this 11 year. However, timing is usually hard to predict when innovations get introduced. 10 For the time being, we leave our model assumptions broadly unchanged. 9 Consequently, we confirm our PT of EUR 8. We will review our ‘Hold’ rating with the 8 release of the 1Q14 report next week. 7 6 Apr 13 Mai 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Okt 13 Nov 13 Dez 13 Jan 14 Feb 14 Mrz 14 Apr 14 Source: Factset SUESS MICROTEC Tec Dax (Rebased) Shareholders: Analyst(s): Adrian Pehl, CFA +49 69 58997 438 [email protected] For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report For company description please see summary table footnote Produced by: All ESN research is available on Bloomberg (“ESNR”), Thomson-Reuters, Capital IQ, FactSet Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report) Süss MicroTec Discounted Cash Flow model Phase I Phase II Phase III EUR m 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Sales 140.0 180.0 210.5 227.0 240.6 252.6 265.3 278.5 292.5 307.1 313.2 Sales growth n/m 28.6% 16.9% 7.8% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 2.0% EBIT -2.5 11.0 21.6 27.2 32.0 25.3 26.6 27.9 29.3 30.8 31.4 EBIT margin -1.8% 6.1% 10.3% 12.0% 13.3% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Tax 1.0 (3.7) (7.1) (8.7) (10.1) (8.1) (8.5) (9.0) (9.4) (9.9) (10.2) Tax rate 35.0% 34.0% 33.0% 32.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% NOPAT (1.5) 7.3 14.5 18.5 22.0 17.2 18.1 18.9 19.9 20.8 21.2 Depreciation 4.9 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.3 6.3 in % of Sales 3.5% 2.5% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% Capex (4.2) (5.4) (6.3) (6.8) (7.2) (6.9) (7.3) (7.7) (8.0) (8.4) (6.4) in % of Sales 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.1% Provision delta 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 in % of Sales 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Change in working capital (10.1) (8.8) (11.0) (5.9) (4.9) (6.9) (7.3) (7.8) (8.4) (5.8) (0.4) in % of Sales -7.2% -4.9% -5.2% -2.6% -2.0% -2.7% -2.8% -2.8% -2.9% -1.9% -0.1% Other current assets delta 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 in % of Sales 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Free Cash Flow -9.6 -1.1 3.0 11.7 16.0 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.2 13.6 21.1 FCF growth nm nm -367.4% 290.1% 37.3% -41.8% 2.8% 3.1% 3.2% 33.1% 55.2% Present Value FCF -9.0 -1.0 2.3 8.2 10.2 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.4 5.3 98.8 PV Phase I 10.6 MCap 130.6 Targ. equity ratio 95.3% PV Phase II 24.7 Risk premium 4.00% Beta 1.52 PV Phase III 98.8 Risk free rate 4.50% WACC 10.28% EV 2011e 100.5 Total present value 134.2 EV 2012e 94.6 EV/EBIT 2012e 8.60 + capital increase/share buy back 0.0 EV 2013e 104.4 EV/EBIT 2013e 4.83 + associates 0.0 - market value of minorities 0.0 Sensitivity Growth rate Phase III + cash and liquid assets 37.1 Analysis 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% - interest bearing debt* 17.8 9.77% 9.09 8.35 8.69 9.09 9.55 Implied Mcap 153.5 10.03% 8.71 8.03 8.35 8.71 9.13 Number of shares 19.1 WACC 10.28% 8.36 7.74 8.03 8.36 8.74 10.54% 8.04 7.46 7.73 8.04 8.38 Implied value per share 8.03 10.80% 7.73 7.20 7.45 7.73 8.05 *) including pension provisions Source: equinet Page 2 Süss MicroTec Süss MicroTec: Summary tables PROFIT & LOSS (EURm) 12/2011 12/2012 12/2013p 12/2014e 12/2015e 12/2016e Sales 175 164 134 140 180 211 Cost of Sales & Operating Costs -149 -147 -147 -138 -165 -185 Non Recurrent Expenses/Income -1.4 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBITDA 24.9 18.6 -12.8 2.4 15.4 25.9 EBITDA (adj.)* 26.3 16.8 -12.8 2.4 15.4 25.9 Depreciation -2.1 -2.2 -2.6 -2.7 -2.9 -3.2 EBITA 22.8 16.4 -15.4 -0.3 12.5 22.8 EBITA (adj)* 24.2 14.6 -15.4 -0.3 12.5 22.8 Amortisations and Write Downs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 of which PPA amortisation 0.0 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 EBIT 18.6 11.7 -19.4 -2.5 11.0 21.6 EBIT (adj.)* 20.0 10.5 -18.6 -1.7 11.8 22.4 Net Financial Interest 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 Other Financials 1.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 Associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Non Recurrent Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings Before Tax (EBT) 19.6 11.8 -19.4 -2.3 11.4 22.2 Tax -5.8 -4.1 4.1 0.8 -3.9 -7.3 Tax rate 29.5% 35.2% 21.0% 35.0% 34.0% 33.0% Discontinued Operations 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Minorities -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Profit (reported) 13.5 9.1 -15.3 -1.5 7.5 14.9 Net Profit (adj.) 14.5 7.3 -15.3 -1.5 7.5 14.9 CASH FLOW (EURm) 12/2011 12/2012 12/2013p 12/2014e 12/2015e 12/2016e Cash Flow from Operations before change in NWC 18.4 14.7 -8.9 4.3 12.9 20.3 Change in Net Working Capital -16.6 -16.0 27.9 -4.5 -8.8 -8.9 Cash Flow from Operations 1.8 -1.3 19.0 -0.1 4.1 11.4 Capex -3.6 -4.2 -3.4 -4.2 -5.4 -6.3 Net Financial Investments 0.5 -6.0 -7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow -1.4 -11.5 7.7 -4.3 -1.3 5.1 Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other (incl.
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