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Country Report Bangladesh August 2019

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Country Report Bangladesh August 2019 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Country Report Bangladesh Generated on August 13th 2019 Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square London E14 4QW United Kingdom _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For 60 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square The Economist Group London 750 Third Avenue E14 4QW 5th Floor United Kingdom New York, NY 10017, US Tel: +44 (0) 20 7576 8181 Tel: +1 212 541 0500 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7576 8476 Fax: +1 212 586 0248 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Hong Kong Geneva The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 1301 Cityplaza Four Rue de l’Athénée 32 12 Taikoo Wan Road 1206 Geneva Taikoo Shing Switzerland Hong Kong Tel: +852 2585 3888 Tel: +41 22 566 24 70 Fax: +852 2802 7638 Fax: +41 22 346 93 47 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] This report can be accessed electronically as soon as it is published by visiting store.eiu.com or by contacting a local sales representative. The whole report may be viewed in PDF format, or can be navigated section-by-section by using the HTML links. In addition, the full archive of previous reports can be accessed in HTML or PDF format, and our search engine can be used to find content of interest quickly. Our automatic alerting service will send a notification via e-mail when new reports become available. Copyright © 2019 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 2047-4296 Symbols for tables "0 or 0.0" means nil or negligible;"n/a" means not available; "-" means not applicable Bangladesh 1 Bangladesh Summary 2 Briefing sheet Outlook for 2019-23 4 Political stability 4 Election watch 5 International relations 5 Policy trends 6 Fiscal policy 6 Monetary policy 7 International assumptions 7 Economic growth 8 Inflation 8 Exchange rates 8 External sector 9 Forecast summary Data and charts 10 Annual data and forecast 11 Quarterly data 12 Monthly data 13 Annual trends charts 14 Monthly trends charts 15 Comparative economic indicators Summary 15 Basic data 17 Political structure Recent analysis Politics 20 Forecast updates Economy 22 Forecast updates 22 Analysis Country Report August 2019 www.eiu.com © Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 Bangladesh 2 Briefing sheet Editor: Sarthak Gupta Forecast Closing Date: July 23, 2019 Political and economic outlook The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the Awami League to serve out its third term of office, which expires in 2023. The party's entrenched system of patronage at local level, as well as its strong command of the armed forces, will strengthen its rule. The political environment will be characterised by frequent bouts of social unrest during our 2019-23 forecast period. Alongside the immediate risk of terrorist attacks, opposition protests and public demonstrations will threaten political stability. Increased spending on infrastructure projects and slow progress on expanding the tax base will result in a budget deficit equivalent to 4.5% of GDP on average in fiscal years 2019/20-2022/23 (July-June), wider than the 4.1% average over the preceding four years. We expect Bangladesh Bank (BB, the central bank) to hold off on tightening monetary policy in 2019 amid slower credit growth. It will loosen monetary policy against a backdrop of moderating price pressures in 2020 before resuming tightening from 2021. We forecast that real GDP will grow by an average of 7.8% per year in 2019/20-2022/23, bolstered by strong increases in private consumption and investment. We expect economic growth to remain robust, despite high imports of goods and services. We expect the current-account deficit to remain wide throughout the forecast period, owing to the country's high import needs. We forecast that the deficit will average the equivalent of 2.2% of GDP in 2019-23. Key indicators 2018a 2019b 2020b 2021b 2022b 2023b Real GDP growth (%) 7.9 8.1c 7.7 7.6 7.9 8.1 Consumer price inflation (av; %) 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.3 Government balance (% of GDP)d -4.6c -4.8c -4.7 -4.5 -4.4 -4.6 Current-account balance (% of GDP) -2.8 -2.2 -1.8 -2.2 -2.4 -2.2 Money market rate (end-period; %) 3.7 4.2 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.1 Unemployment rate (%) 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 Exchange rate Tk:US$ (av) 83.47 84.53 85.56 86.74 88.47 90.46 a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. c Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. d Fiscal years (ending June 30th). Country Report August 2019 www.eiu.com © Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 Bangladesh 3 Key changes since June 26th The taka has remained remarkably stable against the US dollar over the past couple of months, owing to strong export and remittance earnings. As a result, we have revised our average exchange-rate forecast for 2019 to Tk84.5:US$1, from Tk84.8:US$1 previously. Owing to stronger inflows of remittances and weak service imports in 2019, as well as changes to our global oil price forecast, the current-account deficit is now expected to average the equivalent of 2.2% of GDP in 2019-23, compared with 2.6% previously. The month ahead Early August—External sector data (June): We expect Bangladesh to continue to record strong growth in exports, owing to the ongoing shift of low-cost export manufacturing industries away from China. Early August—Monetary policy statement (July­December 2019): Bangladesh Bank (the central bank) releases its monetary policy statement twice a year. It will be an important indicator of the bank's expectations for inflation and growth in 2019/20. Major risks to our forecast Scenarios, Q2 2019 Probability Impact Intensity Terrorists target foreigners Moderate Very high 15 Bangladesh loses preferential market access to the EU Moderate High 12 Politicised rulings increase Moderate High 12 The banking sector experiences a crisis Moderate High 12 The government removes tax incentives available to foreign companies Moderate High 12 Note: Scenarios and scores are taken from our Risk Briefing product. Risk scenarios are potential developments that might substantially change the business operating environment over the coming two years. Risk intensity is a product of probability and impact, on a 25-point scale. Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit. Country Report August 2019 www.eiu.com © Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 Bangladesh 4 Outlook for 2019-23 Political stability The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the Awami League (AL) party, which won a third consecutive spell in government at the December 2018 election, to serve out its full term, which expires in 2023. The AL enjoys an overwhelm-ing majority in the country's unicameral parliament, the Jatiya Sangsad, holding 301 of 350 seats. Although the Jatiya Party (Ershad) is the official opposition party to the AL in parliament, we expect it to extend tacit support to the government (as has been the case during the AL's previous terms). The government is expected to face more substantive opposition from the Jatiya Oikya Front, an informal alliance of smaller parties in parliament that includes the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Gano Forum and Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal. However, the alliance's small parliamentary representation means that significant challenges to the AL's policymaking are unlikely. The admin-istration's strength is rooted in its well-entrenched system of patronage at local level, as well as its strong command of the armed forces. Terrorism will continue to pose risks to political stability. Although the security forces have been successful in thwarting recent attempts at attacks, any increase in the incidence of terrorism could contribute to broader political instability, fuelling dissatisfaction with the government and prompting wide-spread social unrest. Political stability will be threatened further by protests and demonstrations by members and supporters of the former main opposition party, the BNP, campaigning for the release from jail of Khaleda Zia, that party's de facto leader. Mrs Zia was charged with corruption and given a custo- dial sentence in February 2018. She is also facing numerous other charges, making the prospect of her release unlikely during our forecast period. Mrs Zia is 73 years old and has been facing health problems since her arrest last year. There is a risk of these protests becoming violent if her health were to deteriorate further, as BNP supporters would probably accuse the government of denying Mrs Zia proper care. The ongoing rivalry between the AL and the BNP will ensure that the political environment remains tense during our 2019-23 forecast period.
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