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JYP Ent. (035900) JYP Ent. (035900) 4Q20 Review: 안정적 성장 음식료/엔터/레저 Analyst 이선화 2021년 3월 19일 02-6114-2939 [email protected] 투자의견 Buy, 목표주가 51,000원 유지 JYP Ent.에 대해 투자의견 Buy와 목표주가 51,000원을 유지한다. 4분기 어닝쇼크에도 불구하고 목표주가를 유지하는 이유는 1) 4분기 판관비 증가의 원인이 회계 컨설팅 비용 7억원, 인센티브 10억원 등 일회성 비용에 기인하며, 2) 아티스트 활동이 예정대로 진행되고 있어 향후 성장률 추정도 기존 값을 유지하여 현금흐름 추정치에 유의미한 변동이 없기 때문이다 (표 5). 4Q20 Review: 영업이익 105억원 JYP Ent.의 4분기 연결기준 매출액은 417억원 (-6.0% YoY, +20.5% QoQ), 영업이익은 (-22.0% YoY)으로 컨센서스 하회, 105억원 (-22.0% YoY, -5.4% QoQ, 영업이익률 25.2%)을 기록해 영업이익 기준 컨센서스 일회성 비용 17억원 감안하면 컨센서스 120억원을 12.6% 하회했다. 니쥬 데뷔 싱글 (12월)과 스트레이키즈 국내 리패키지 앨범 (9월) 부합 및 일본 미니앨범 (10월) 발매로 콘텐츠 매출 (음반+음원)이 47.1% YoY 증가했으나, 코로나19로 인해 매니지먼트 (광고/콘서트) 매출 (-53.5% YoY)이 타격을 입으면서 매출액이 소폭 감소했다. 수익성은 일회성 비용이 17억원 가량 발생했는데, 이를 감안한 영업이익은 컨센서스에 부합하는 수준이다. 영업외단에서 옵티머스 펀드 투자 손실 금액 25억원이 반영되며 세전이익은 58억원 (-54.5% YoY, -41.2% YoY)을 기록했다. 2PM 컴백으로 아티스트 파이프라인 강화, 2021년에는 2세대 아티스트 (트와이스, 스트레이키즈, ITZY 등)를 집중 육성하고 2분기 2PM 전략적 플랫폼 사업 투자로 사업모델 확장 완전체 컴백을 통해 아티스트 파이프라인을 강화한다는 전략이다. 트와이스는 올해부터 개별활동이 가능해지면서 단독 광고 촬영이 증가할 것으로 기대한다. 4월에는 니쥬 일본 싱글 2집 발매가 예정되어 있고, LOUD 프로젝트 (국내 5월), 니쥬 보이그룹 (일본 연내) 프로젝트를 통해 신인 라인업을 강화할 예정이다. 플랫폼 등 신규 사업 투자 또한 검토 중인데, 국내외 메타버스 플랫폼 사업자들과 다각도로 투자를 논의하고 있다. 지난해 11월 메타버스 플랫폼 제페토를 운영하는 네이버제트에 50억원 우선주 투자를 단행한 바 있는데, 제페토 내에서 추가 라이선스 사업 협력을 논의 중이어서 향후 라이선스 매출 증가가 기대된다. 유지 Buy Trading Data Risk & Total Return (annualized over three years) Free float (%) 74.9 1 2 3 4 5 목표주가 (유지, 원) 51,000 거래대금 (3m, 십억원) 30.8 Return High Risk Dividend yield* (%) 0.6 외국인 지분율 (%) 21.3 1 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Total return (%) 45.5 주요주주 지분율 (%) 박진영 외 3 인 18.3 2 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE TRUE 현재가 (3/18, 원) 35,200 국민연금공단 5.0 3 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Consensus target price (원) 46,800 Stock Price Performance 4High FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE 시가총액 (조원) 1.2 주가상승률 (%) 1M 3M 6M 12M 5 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE ※ Dividend Yield는 12개월 Forward 절대수익률 -4.9 -5.6 -12.0 102.3 시장대비 상대수익률 -3.1 -5.9 -17.6 3.3 Earnings Forecast & Valuation Stock Price & Relative Performance 결산기말 2019A 2020P 2021E 2022E 시장대비 주가상승률 (좌) 매출액 (십억원) 155 144 184 212 (%) 주가 (우) (원) 영업이익 (십억원) 43 44 55 64 40 50,000 30 지배주주순이익 (십억원) 31 30 40 48 42,000 20 EPS (원) 883 832 1,132 1,338 10 34,000 증감률 (%) 28.9 -5.8 36.1 18.2 0 26,000 P/E (x) 27.4 46.2 31.1 26.3 -10 18,000 EV/EBITDA (x) 16.3 26.6 19.5 16.3 -20 -30 10,000 P/B (x) 5.4 7.4 5.7 4.8 20.3 20.6 20.9 20.12 21.3 ROE (%) 21.9 17.3 20.0 19.9 배당수익률 (%) 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 자료: JYP Ent., KB증권 JYP Ent.(035900) 2021년 3월 19일 투자의견과 위험요소 점검 Base-case Scenario: 향후 주가 동인 Bull-case Scenario 55,000원 (Implied P/E 46.4배) 1) 향후 3년간 연결 매출액 CAGR +7.7%~+13.2% 2) 향후 3년간 연결 영업이익 CAGR +9.8%~+16.8% Base-case Scenario (목표주가) 51,000원 (Implied P/E 43.1배) Bull-case Scenario: 목표주가를 상회할 위험요소 1) 향후 3년간 연결 매출액 CAGR +13.2%를 상회 현재주가 35,200원 2) 향후 3년간 연결 영업이익 CAGR +16.8%를 상회 Bear-case Scenario: 목표주가를 하회할 위험요소 Bear-case Scenario 30,000원 (Implied P/E 25.3배) 1) 향후 3년간 연결 매출액 CAGR +7.7%를 하회 2) 향후 3년간 연결 영업이익 CAGR +9.8%를 하회 실적추정 변경 밸류에이션 및 목표주가 산정 기준 (십억원, %) 수정 전 수정 후 변동률 2020E 2021E 2020P 2021E 2020P 2021E 1) 밸류에이션 사용기준 (방법): 매출액 143 179 144 183 1.0 2.3 DCF 밸류에이션 영업이익 45 55 44 55 -3.0 0.2 지배주주순이익 33 40 30 40 -9.2 0.6 2) 목표주가 산정: 자료: KB증권 추정 WACC 7.86%, 영구성장률 3.55% 가정 컨센서스 비교 3) 목표주가의 업사이드 ~ 다운사이드: (십억원, %) KB증권 컨센서스 차이 55,000원 ~ 30,000원 2020P 2021E 2020E 2021E 2020P 2021E 4) 목표주가 도달 시 밸류에이션: 매출액 144 183 143 176 1.2 4.1 12M Fwd. Implied P/E 43.1배, P/B 7.83배 영업이익 44 55 46 57 -3.5 -4.4 지배주주순이익 30 40 33 43 -10.2 -5.9 자료: FnGuide, KB증권 추정 매출액 구성 (2020P 기준) 실적민감도 분석 (%) EPS 변동률 (%) 음반 음원 광고 콘서트 출연료 MD 기타 2021E 2022E 환율 1% 상승 시 0.1 0.2 22.6 금리 1%p 상승 시 1.5 1.7 33.1 12.1 4.4 0.8 8.2 18.8 자료: JYP Ent., KB증권 PEER 그룹 비교 (십억원, X, %) 시가총액 P/E P/B EV/EBITDA ROE 배당수익률 2020P 2021E 2020P 2021E 2020P 2021E 2020P 2021E 2020P 2021E JYP Ent. 1,250 46.2 31.1 7.4 5.7 26.6 19.5 17.3 20.0 0.4 0.6 에스엠 707 32.6 21.1 1.7 1.6 3.9 3.5 5.2 7.5 0.0 0.0 빅히트 8,336 47.8 35.7 10.9 8.3 33.1 24.5 22.9 23.4 0.0 0.0 와이지엔터테인먼트 887 36.4 34.9 2.4 2.2 16.8 14.0 6.6 6.4 N/A 0.2 자료: Bloomberg 컨센서스, KB증권 2 JYP Ent.(035900) 2021년 3월 19일 표 1. JYP Ent. 목표주가 산출 내역 (DCF) (십억원) 2020P 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E Terminal 현금흐름추정 영업이익 a 44 55 64 75 86 98 110 122 134 146 157 166 174 한계법인세율 (%) b 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 NOPLAT c=a*(1-b) 33 41 48 56 64 73 82 92 101 109 117 125 131 감가상각비 d 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 총 현금흐름 e=c+d 37 44 51 57 65 74 83 93 102 110 118 126 132 운전자본 증감 f -20 -4 -3 -4 -6 -7 -9 -11 -14 -16 -18 -20 -22 설비투자 (Capex) g -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 총투자 h=f+g -22 -5 -4 -5 -7 -8 -11 -12 -15 -17 -19 -21 -23 FCFF i=e+h 15 39 47 52 59 66 73 80 87 93 99 105 109 Adjusted FCF 41 48 53 60 67 74 82 88 94 101 106 2,728 현금흐름의 현재 가치 WACC 7.86% 영구성장률 3.55% Discount Factor 1.00 0.93 0.86 0.80 0.74 0.69 0.64 0.59 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.44 PV of Terminal Value 41 44 46 48 50 51 52 52 52 51 50 1,187 Valuation 현금흐름 합산 (현재 가치) j 1,723 순현금 k 97 비연결 관계기업투자 l 1 비지배주주지분 m 3 스탁옵션 n 0 적정 기업가치 o=j+k+l-m-n 1,817 유통주식수 (천 주) p 35,497 목표주가 (원) q=o/p 51,000 현재주가 (3/18, 원) 35,200 상승여력 (%) 44.9 12m Fwd. EPS 1,184 12m Fwd. BVPS 6,513 목표주가의 12m Fwd. P/E (X) 43.1 목표주가의 12m Fwd. P/B (X) 7.83 자료: JYP Ent., KB증권 추정 표 2. JYP Ent. WACC 및 영구성장률에 대한 목표주가 민감도 분석 (원) WACC → Terminal Growth ↓ 7.4% 7.5% 7.6% 7.7% 7.8% 7.9% 8.0% 8.1% 8.2% 8.3% 8.4% 3.3% 54,353 53,346 52,357 51,387 50,435 49,500 48,781 48,072 47,373 46,684 46,006 3.4% 55,122 54,100 53,098 52,114 51,148 50,200 49,470 48,751 48,043 47,345 46,656 3.5% 56,000 54,962 53,944 52,944 51,963 51,000 50,259 49,528 48,808 48,099 47,400 3.6% 56,549 55,501 54,473 53,463 52,472 51,500 50,751 50,014 49,287 48,571 47,865 3.7% 57,318 56,255 55,213 54,190 53,186 52,200 51,441 50,694 49,957 49,231 48,515 자료: FnGuide, 연합인포맥스, KB증권 추정 표 3. JYP Ent. WACC 및 영구성장률에 대한 목표주가 상승 여력 변화 (%) WACC → Terminal Growth ↓ 7.4% 7.5% 7.6% 7.7% 7.8% 7.9% 8.0% 8.1% 8.2% 8.3% 8.4% 3.3% 54.4 51.6 48.7 46.0 43.3 40.6 38.6 36.6 34.6 32.6 30.7 3.4% 56.6 53.7 50.8 48.0 45.3 42.6 40.5 38.5 36.5 34.5 32.5 3.5% 59.1 56.1 53.2 50.4 47.6 44.9 42.8 40.7 38.7 36.6 34.7 3.6% 60.7 57.7 54.8 51.9 49.1 46.3 44.2 42.1 40.0 38.0 36.0 3.7% 62.8 59.8 56.9 53.9 51.1 48.3 46.1 44.0 41.9 39.9 37.8 자료: FnGuide, 연합인포맥스, KB증권 추정 3 JYP Ent.(035900) 2021년 3월 19일 표 4.
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