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JYP Entertainment (035900 KQ ) Foreign Investor Influx to Begin JYP Entertainment (035900 KQ ) Foreign investor influx to begin Entertainment US NDR takeaways: Despite worries, overall view on K-pop still positive We recently joined JYP Entertainment on a non-deal roadshow (NDR) in New York, Company Report Chicago, and Los Angeles during the first week of September. A wide range of topics September 10, 2019 were covered, from the Korean entertainment industry’s unique profit model (trainee incubation and profit sharing) to potential risks. US investors generally maintained a positive view on K-pop. Noting that the growth of digital music is reviving the global music market and removing the physical barriers to content consumption, m any investors said they believed K-pop could break further into the mainstream and (Maintain) Buy expand its market size. That said, investors appeared more wary than before of the various risks inherent in Target Price (12M, W) 28,000 the entertainment industry, as a string of negative news since the beginning of the year has caused a sharp selloff that has lasted for more than six months. Share Price (09/09/19, W) 19,950 Growth visibility and risk management capabilities stand out We believe JYP Entertainment has strong earnings visibility. Its main artists, TWICE and Expected Return 40% GOT7, are seeing growing album sales and concert attendees, while newer artists like Stray Kids (debuted in 2018) and ITZY (debuted in 2019) are beginning to generate profits. Stray Kids’ album sales have more than doubled (from 70,000 copies to 170,000 copies) in just 18 months, and the group is giving an increasing number of overseas OP (19F, Wbn) 39 concerts. ITZY’s first mini album has sold more than 100,000 copies, which is Consensus OP (19F, Wbn) 37 considered a critical threshold of success for girl groups. Profit margins, which had contracted slightly when the two groups first debuted , should rapidly recover as EPS Growth (19F, %) 31.8 monetization gains traction. Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -27.9 P/E (19F, x) 22.1 We believe JYP Entertainment is also better positioned from a risk management perspective: 1) The company has a profitable core business, while its exposure to non- Market P/E (19F, x) 12.7 core businesses is almost nonexistent. The company should continue to generate high KOSDAQ 625.77 margins from its main artists, GOT7 and TWICE, who are now five years into their careers. 2) JYP Entertainment also has a decision-making process that helps minimize Market Cap (Wbn) 708 risks. The company’s organization is divided into artist-specific labels (rather than being Shares Outstanding (mn) 35 structured around business functions), which limits its dependence on a single artist. In Free Float (%) 74.8 addition, the company maintains a content voting system that prevents any one person from exercising too much power and allows different opinions to be shared. Foreign Ownership (%) 10.6 Beta (12M) 1.30 Best-suited to investor needs; Recommend as our top pick in entertainment 52-Week Low 16,950 In our view, the Korean entertainment industry ’s competitiveness in the global music 52-Week High 39,150 market remains intact. Nevertheless, investors are becoming increasingly hesitant to overweight entertainment stocks, as a series of negative news items have weighed on (%) 1M 6M 12M the sector (JYP Entertainment is now trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 19x). While Absolute 7.3 -33.7 -41.7 the underlying view on entertainment stocks remains largely unchanged from the thesis that drove the 2018 rally (digital music sales to drive earnings; K-pop’s increasing Relative 1.1 -22.0 -23.7 popularity to drive multiple expansion), investors have become more cautious, weighing “cheap share prices” against “unknown risks.” 140 JYP Entertainment KOSDAQ 120 From this perspective, we believe JYP Entertainment is best-suited to investor needs, given: 1) its earnings growth visibility (growth of key artists and monetization of new 100 artists); 2) high earnings predictability (due to concentration on core business and 80 limited exposure to non-core businesses); and 3) risk-minimizing organization al 60 structure (independent labels and internal voting system). In particular, we believe JYP Entertainment will be the most favored option for foreign investors focused on safety, 40 9.18 1.19 5.19 9.19 and thus expect the stock’s foreign ownership (currently 10.3%) to gradually increase . We maintain our Buy rating and target price of W28,000 on JYP Entertainment. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Media ] FY (Dec.) 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F Revenue (Wbn) 51 74 102 125 155 190 Jeong -yeob Park +822 -3774 -1652 OP (Wbn) 4 14 19 29 39 51 [email protected] OP margin (%) 7.8 18.9 18.6 23.2 25.2 26.8 NP (Wbn) 3 8 16 24 32 40 EPS (W) 94 246 471 685 902 1,134 ROE (%) 5.6 13.4 21.4 22.5 22.5 22.8 P/E (x) 48.9 20.0 29.2 44.2 22.1 17.6 P/B (x) 2.2 2.1 4.8 7.7 4.2 3.4 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates September 10, 2019 JYP Entertainment Earnings outlook Figure 1. 12-month forward P/E: Entertainment firms’ valuations have fallen; valuation merits of JYP Entertainment have increased (x) 50 JYP Ent. SM Ent. 45 YG Ent. 40 35 30 25 24.3x 21.0x 20 19.6x 15 10 4/17 8/17 12/17 4/18 8/18 12/18 4/19 8/19 Source: WISEfn, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Table 1. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19F 4Q19F 2018 2019F 2020F Revenue 23 32 34 36 26 39 45 45 125 155 190 Album/digital content 9 11 14 16 10 15 14 14 49 52 57 Management 9 14 10 13 9 14 18 16 46 57 75 Concerts 1 7 4 4 2 5 9 8 16 24 39 Advertising 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 17 19 23 Appearance fees 3 3 2 5 3 4 3 3 13 14 13 Other 4 7 11 8 8 11 13 15 30 46 58 Operating profit 1 9 8 10 6 9 12 12 29 39 51 OP margin (%) 5.9 28.7 25.0 27.1 22.0 24.1 27.7 26.2 23.0 25.4 27.0 Pretax profit 2 10 8 10 7 9 12 11 30 40 51 Net profit 2 7 7 8 6 7 10 9 24 32 41 Net margin (%) 8.1 23.2 19.9 23.0 24.0 17.7 22.3 19.9 19.4 20.7 21.4 Net profit attributable to controlling 1.8 7.3 6.5 8.2 6.4 6.8 9.8 8.9 23.8 32.0 40.3 interests YoY Revenue 5.0 10.6 93.9 5.9 14.5 24.1 31.9 24.1 22.1 24.4 22.2 Album/digital content 9.5 41.2 163.5 21.4 1.3 39.6 4.5 -12.4 44.2 6.1 9.7 Management -9.6 6.4 13.3 31.8 0.8 -5.2 85.8 27.1 9.9 24.1 32.2 Concerts -48.8 52.2 582.2 47.9 97.0 -33.7 135.1 96.0 61.2 48.5 64.4 Advertising 4.9 17.6 -12.4 -13.4 -17.6 -4.2 38.9 51.6 -1.3 14.2 18.8 Appearance fees -4.7 -46.0 -50.3 82.5 -4.3 69.7 76.2 -40.6 -12.0 6.7 -4.8 Other 38.2 -12.0 177.1 -32.2 70.2 61.7 18.5 90.5 12.8 55.2 24.0 Operating profit -64.1 30.9 664.0 29.4 322.7 3.9 46.2 19.9 47.7 37.0 29.9 Net profit -36.0 7.6 603.4 46.6 241.2 -5.2 47.7 7.5 48.3 32.7 26.0 Net profit attributable to controlling -37.2 7.5 592.2 48.3 249.4 -5.9 51.1 8.2 47.4 34.2 25.8 interests Key assumptions Domestic album sales volume ( ‘000) 454 565 769 947 130 890 790 790 2,736 2,600 2,792 Ticket sales volume in Japan ( ‘000) 73 108 83 94 150 220 120 90 357 580 805 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; concert ticket sales volume is based on actual timing of concert and includes our estimates Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 September 10, 2019 JYP Entertainment [NDR takeaways] Despite worries, overall view on K-pop is still positive We recently joined JYP Entertainment on an NDR in New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles during the first week of September. Many investors in the US were well aware of the popularity of K- pop and showed strong interest in JYP Entertainment’s business, which seeks to monetize this trend. A wide range of topics were covered, from the characteristics and sustainability of K- pop’s unique profit model (trainee incubation and profit sharing) to potential risks. US investors, who are quite familiar with paid streaming services, generally maintained a positive view on K-pop.
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