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National Traffic Model for the Republic of Croatia Kick

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National Traffic Model for the Republic of Croatia Kick National Transport Model for the Republic of Croatia CLOSING CEREMONY – 04 MAY 2016 Investing in Future European Union The project is co-finannced by European Union from the European Regional Development Fund Dr Uwe Reiter Zagreb, 04 May 2016 AGENDA 1. Introduction 2. The Tasks and Approach 3. The Results 4. The Way Forward Dr Uwe Reiter Zagreb, 04 May 2016 AGENDA 1. Introduction 2. The Tasks and Approach 3. The Results 4. The Way Forward Dr Uwe Reiter Zagreb, 04 May 2016 PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF THE PROJECT Why do we need a National Transport Model for the Republic of Croatia ? Development of National Transport Strategy Identification of shortcomings / bottlenecks / needs for improvement Development of strategy alternatives Development of policies, investment strategies, projects and measures Assess the impacts of the different alternatives and select the most promising option • Impacts on transport itself: other road users, public transport users, pedestrians • Impacts on access and accessibility • Impacts on economic development • Impacts on the environment (natural, man-made, social) • Impacts on communities, visual intrusion • Impacts on participation, gender aspects • Impacts on quality of life • … Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony I 04 May 2016 I Page 4 THE PROJECT TEAM: STRENGTHS Strong resources and backstopping capacity Local Specific knowledge modelling and expertise experience International experiences Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony I 04 May 2016 I Page 5 Project Duration Project Events Visibility - - Phase Implementation Phase Inception Task Model Data PROJECT TIMEPROJECT SCHEDULE Collection and Surveys and Collection Implementation May Jun Jul Planned 2014 Aug Sep Oct regular project project duration regular Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony Ceremony 04 II 2016 May Closing Reiter Uwe Dr May 2015 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Reserve Jan I Page Page I Feb 2016 6 Mar Apr May AGENDA 1. Introduction 2. The Tasks and Approach 3. The Results 4. The Way Forward Dr Uwe Reiter Zagreb, 04 May 2016 THE TASKS AND THE APPROACH: DEVELOPING A NATIONAL TRANSPORT MODEL FOR CROATIA I. Collection of Data II. Analysis of existing transport system III. Development of Freight Demand Model IV. Developmenf of Passenger Demand Model V. Development of Network Model VI. Assignment: Calibration and Validation of the Model VII. Development of Forecast Model 2020, 2030 and 2040 (Do Minimum) VIII.Development of Forecast Scenario for Strategy (Do Something) Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony I 04 May 2016 I Page 8 THE TASKS AND THE APPROACH: DEVELOPING A NATIONAL TRANSPORT MODEL FOR CROATIA I. Collection of Data II. Analysis of existing transport system III. Development of Freight Demand Model IV. Developmenf of Passenger Demand Model V. Development of Network Model VI. Assignment: Calibration and Validation of the Model VII. Development of Forecast Model 2020, 2030 and 2040 (Do Minimum) VIII.Development of Forecast Scenario for Strategy (Do Something) Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony I 04 May 2016 I Page 9 COLLECTION OF EXISTING DATA Group of data Stakeholders Administrative units State Geodetic Administration Socioeconomic data Croatian Bureau of Statistics; Ministry of Science, Education and Sports; Croatian Chamber of Economy; Financial Agency, Ministry of Tourism, Tourist Boards (20 Counties and City of Zagreb), Ministry of Interior Road transport Croatian Roads Ltd., Croatian Motorways Maintenance and Tolling Ltd., Motorway Zagreb – Macelj Ltd., BINA Istra Ltd. Public transport Ministry of Maritime Affairs, Transport and Infrastructure, InfoDom Ltd., Croatian Chamber of Economy Urban Public transport Zagreb holding Ltd. Branch ZET, Zagreb, Promet Ltd., Split, GPP Ltd., Osijek, KD Autotrolej Ltd., Rijeka Railway transport HŽ Infrastructure Ltd., HŽ Passenger transport Ltd., HŽ Cargo Ltd. Airports transport Zagreb International Airport, Zadar Airport, Split Airport Ltd., Rijeka Airport, Airport Pula, Osijek Airport Ltd., Dubrovnik Airport, Varaždin Airport Ltd. Maritime transport Agency for Coastal Shipping, Port Rijeka, Port Zadar, Port Šibenik, Port Split, Port Ploče Inland Waterways Agency for Inland Waterways, Port authority Vukovar, Port authority Osijek, Port authority Slavonski brod, Port authority Sisak Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony I 04 May 2016 I Page 10 COLLECTION OF DATA THE SURVEYS Household Survey on passenger traveller behaviour (sample: 3,000 households) Target population: persons aged 14 and older Fieldwork finalised: 15.09.2014 – 15.11.2014 Results seem reasonable Data analyses and coding of results in database finalised Survey on drivers of mode choice in freight planning Fieldwork finalised: 28.10.2014 – 21.11.2014 37 interviews from sample of 414 companies 220 shipments described with detailed characteristics Passenger counting on public transport services Fieldwork: 20.04.2015 – 20.05.2015 In total, 6,487 arrivals/departures and 108,813 passenger were counted at 78 selected locations Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony I 04 May 2016 I Page 11 SURVEY RESULTS – MOBILITY RATES 3,57 3,23 3,06 2,85 2,45 2,26 RoC Continental Croatia Adriatic Croatia all mobile persons Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony I 04 May 2016 I Page 12 SURVEY RESULTS – MOBILITY RATES Trip rates / time spent travelling by age groups Trip rates / time spent travelling 3,03 14-29 53 by gender 2,96 30-39 men 2,56 47 46 2,56 40-49 women 2,35 48 37 2,36 50-64 39 number of trips time spent traveling 1,47 65+ 23 number of trips time spent traveling Non-mobile People Trip rates / time spent travelling looking after family/home; retired; 55,1% by highest education level 7,2% pupile/student; Primary education or less 2,08 34 3,8% Secondary education 2,48 42 employed; 5,7% Higher education 3,04 55 other; 4,6% number of trips time spent traveling unemployed; 23,6% Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony I 04 May 2016 I Page 13 SURVEY RESULTS – MODAL SHARES Proportion of all trips by the type of purpose 43,1% go home 42,1% 14,8% shopping 14,2% 12,6% leisure 15,4% 12,4% other 13,0% 12,3% go to work 11,7% Proportion of all trips by mode of transport 4,7% go to school Continental Croatia 49,4% 3,5% car Adriatic Croatia 54,1% 15,1% public transport 8,1% 7,1% bicycle 1,9% 27,2% walking 34,6% 1,3% other 1,3% Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony I 04 May 2016 I Page 14 SURVEY RESULTS – TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTIONS 11,0% 10,0% 9,0% 8,0% 7,0% 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Continental Croatia Adriatic Croatia Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony I 04 May 2016 I Page 15 THE TASKS AND THE APPROACH: DEVELOPING A NATIONAL TRANSPORT MODEL FOR CROATIA I. Collection of Data II. Analysis of existing transport system III. Development of Freight Demand Model IV. Developmenf of Passenger Demand Model V. Development of Network Model VI. Assignment: Calibration and Validation of the Model VII. Development of Forecast Model 2020, 2030 and 2040 (Do Minimum) VIII.Development of Forecast Scenario for Strategy (Do Something) Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony I 04 May 2016 I Page 16 TRAFFIC COUNTS Objective Analysing the traffic flows in Croatia Data available 500 Count Locations • AADT: Average Annual Daily Traffic • ASDT: Average Summer Daily Traffic • Categories of vehicles according to specific groups or vehicle lengths 300 count locations with Hourly data • Verification / plausibility checks with results from the above 500 count locations • Identification of hourly patterns of traffic flows • Identification of typical Peak Hours Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony I 04 May 2016 I Page 17 TRAFFIC COUNTS Traffic counts on the Croatian road network Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony I 04 May 2016 I Page 18 TRAFFIC COUNTS AADT Total of vehicles Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony I 04 May 2016 I Page 19 TRAFFIC COUNTS ASDT Total of vehicles Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony I 04 May 2016 I Page 20 TRAFFIC COUNTS AADT Proportion of heavy vehicles Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony I 04 May 2016 I Page 21 TRAFFIC COUNTS ASDT Proportion of heavy vehicles Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony I 04 May 2016 I Page 22 TRAFFIC COUNTS Peak hour Weekday Off-season • Average peak hour: 16:00- 17:00 • Significantly earlier in the Split-Dalmatia County • Later (at 17:00-18:00) in the Zagreb area • PHF: 7.9 % of daily traffic Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony I 04 May 2016 I Page 23 TRAFFIC COUNTS Peak hour Weekend On-season • Average peak hour: 11:00- 12:00 • Similarities with off-season distribution in the Slavonian region • Greater traffic dispersion throughout the day • PHF: 7.2 % of daily traffic Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony I 04 May 2016 I Page 24 THE TASKS AND THE APPROACH: DEVELOPING A NATIONAL TRANSPORT MODEL FOR CROATIA I. Collection of Data II. Analysis of existing transport system III. Development of Freight Demand Model IV. Developmenf of Passenger Demand Model V. Development of Network Model VI. Assignment: Calibration and Validation of the Model VII. Development of Forecast Model 2020, 2030 and 2040 (Do Minimum) VIII.Development of Forecast Scenario for Strategy (Do Something) Dr Uwe Reiter I Closing Ceremony I 04 May 2016 I Page 25 FREIGHT MODEL DEVELOPMENT Demand calculation • Integrated multi-modal freight model in VISUM • Combination of multi-modal Commodity Model and Round Trip Model Commodity Model Round Trip Model Differentiation of: S ..
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