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Developing the Homes and Creating the Places That London Needs

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Developing the Homes and Creating the Places That London Needs DEVELOPING THE HOMES AND CREATING THE PLACES THAT LONDON NEEDS FINAL RESULTS 31 MARCH 2019 DEVELOPING THE HOMES AND CREATING THE PLACES THAT LONDON NEEDS 1 OUR INVESTMENT CASE Proven Market Strong Knowledge strategy opportunity partnerships and experience Focused on London with an Chronic shortage of homes A respected partner to our A highly motivated team increasing commitment to in London and strong build stakeholders, encouraging with extensive experience the delivery of build to rent to rent investor demand new opportunities to work of planning and complex homes together construction in London Substantial Reduced Quality Growing pipeline risk and service business Development pipeline Forward funded build to Delivering quality homes Ability and desire to of 4,900 homes rent transactions reducing to a diverse customer increase output to meet representing £1.6 billion debt and improving risk mix with a 99 per cent significant housing need of future revenue profile recommendation rate in in London 2018 1 2 OUR BUSINESS MODEL OUR KEY RESOURCES AND RELATIONSHIPS RESOURCES RELATIONSHIPS Land Our people Land owners Our customers Knowledge Respected brand Local authorities Build to rent investors Construction expertise Strong balance sheet Housing associations Supply chain WHAT WE DO AND HOW WE CREATE VALUE LAND PLANNING DESIGN CONSTRUCTION SALES ACQUISITION Buying the right Using our Developments that Controlling the Reducing risk, land in the right knowledge to work fit in with local process with driving capital locations across with partners and communities and in-house expertise returns and London optimise policy meet the needs to deliver a quality delivering compliant schemes of customers product excellent customer on programme service 3 AMBITION AND STRATEGY OUR AMBITION There is a chronic shortage of new homes in London. Our goal is to grow our output of homes, principally through our strategic focus on build to rent, and in so doing help address this shortage in one of the world’s greatest cities. OUR STRATEGY Growing our Broadening our operational capacity geographic focus OPERATE EFFICIENTLY ACCESS TO LAND A key build to rent Reducing exposure to Driving our responsible developer and partner market risk and debt business agenda DRIVING GROWTH REDUCING RISK OPERATE RESPONSIBLY 3 4 KEY MESSAGES Record total revenue up Strategic shift towards build to rent accelerated 12% to £354 million Greater emphasis on lower risk, less capital intensive developments Gearing reduced to 37% (September 2018: 52%) Build to rent partnerships entered into with M&G and Invesco Development pipeline of 4,900 70% of pipeline homes valued at £1.6 billion build to rent led developments 5 KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS Profitability and efficiency Growth and risk Operational Total profit 2019 £40.1m Development 2019 £1.6bn Customer 2019 99% before tax 2018 £46.0m pipeline 2018 £1.3bn recommendation 2018 100% 2017 £34.1m 2017 £1.5bn rate 2017 99% £40.1m £1.6bn 99% Adjusted 2019 13.1% Average open 2019 £552k Accident 2019 0.16 operating margin 2018 16.7% market price 2018 £539k frequency rate 2018 0.11 13.1% 2017 13.4% in pipeline 2017 £527k 0.16 2017 0.12 £552k Shareholder value Earnings 2019 Employee 2019 2019 44.6p Forward £224m 89% 2018 retention rate per share 2018 49.8p sales £344m 2018 90% 2017 £546m 2017 44.6p 2017 36.8p £224m 89% 90% NextGeneration th Dividend 2019 17.0p Gearing 2019 37.0% 2019 4 sustainability th per share 2018 17.0p 2018 44.6% 2018 6 benchmark th 2017 15.7p 37.0% 2017 7.0% 2017 17 17.0p 4th 5 6 GROUP INCOME STATEMENT 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total revenue £173.5m £245.6m £291.9m £316.2m £354.3m Total gross profit £53.9m £63.1m £63.2m £79.5m £79.3m Administrative expenses (£16.7m) (£19.2m) (£20.8m) (£24.2m) (£27.6m) Selling expenses (£9.2m) (£9.4m) (£5.1m) (£6.5m) (£9.8m) Total operating profit £28.0m £34.5m £37.3m £48.8m £41.9m Net finance costs (£2.9m) (£2.3m) (£3.2m) (£2.8m) (£1.8m) Total profit before tax £25.1m £32.2m £34.1m £46.0m £40.1m Adjusted gross margin 32.4% 26.5% 22.3% 26.5% 23.7% Adjusted operating margin 17.5% 15.0% 13.4% 16.7% 13.1% Earnings per share 33.2p 39.3p 36.8p 49.8p 44.6p Dividend per share 11.1p 14.2p 15.7p 17.0p 17.0p 7 REVENUE AND MARGIN ANALYSIS Revenue analysis Margin analysis 2019 Total revenue Adjusted gross 2019 £m profit margin 4% Individual sale 231.7 28.3% 31% Build to rent 108.7 13.2% Other income 13.9 28.7% 65% 354.3 23.7% Total revenue Adjusted gross 2018 £m profit margin 2018 Individual sale 244.2 28.4% Build to rent 67.7 18.1% 1% 21% Other income 4.3 45.1% 316.2 26.5% 78% Affordable housing revenue and profit is categorised within either individual sale or build to rent depending on the tenure of each development Individual sale Build to rent Other income 7 8 GROUP BALANCE SHEET 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Non current assets £1.9m £2.1m £2.2m £3.4m £3.5m Inventories £277.2m £285.6m £339.4m £373.8m £320.6m Total cash £39.7m £20.9m £39.8m £13.8m £33.4m Other current assets £11.5m £31.4m £42.9m £55.7m £103.1m Total borrowings (£92.6m) (£38.2m) (£54.1m) (£116.9m) (£127.0m) Other liabilities (£117.3m) (£114.8m) (£165.9m) (£98.7m) (£80.7m) Net assets £120.4m £187.0m £204.3m £231.1m £252.9m Net assets per share 200p 250p 271p 306p 333p Total net debt (£52.9m) (£17.3m) (£14.3m) (£103.1m) (£93.6m) Gearing 44% 9% 7% 45% 37% 9 FINANCIAL SUMMARY Gearing reduced to Record total revenue of £354.3 million up 12% (2018: £316.2 million) 37% Gross profit margins at or above target for each sector Increased proportion of lower risk, lower margin build to rent Total profit before tax reduced to £40.1 million (2018: £46.0 million) Total dividend Original £50 million target impacted by market factors and delayed contracts maintained at 17.0 pence 9 10 MARKET ANALYSIS INDEXED TREND IN NUMBER OF JOBS, PEOPLE AND ANNUAL TREND IN HOUSEHOLD TENURE, HOMES IN LONDON 1997 TO 2017 (1997 = 100) LONDON, 1981 TO 2017 150 45% 140 35% 130 120 25% 110 15% 100 90 5% 80 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Jobs People Homes Owned with mortgage Social Owned outright Private rented Source: GLA, ONS, MHCLG Source: GLA, MHCLG INSTITUTIONAL INVESTMENT VOLUMES INTO CUMULATIVE BUILD TO RENT STARTS AND BUILD TO RENT IN UK COMPLETIONS IN LONDON, 2009 TO 2018 £4.0bn 30k 25k £3.0bn 20k £2.0bn 15k Investment 10k Number of Homes of Number £1.0bn 5k 0 0 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Starts Completions Source: CBRE Q1 2019 Source: Molior London 11 MARKET CONTEXT UK build to rent investment Continued growth in both jobs and doubled incomes in London year to March 2019 (CBRE) Employment and population growth outpacing new homes Significant tenure shift towards private rented homes Build to rent increasing, buy to let decreasing £75 billion Substantial scope in the future scale of of build to rent build to rent investment investment by 2025 (Knight Frank upgraded forecast) 11 12 BUILD TO RENT STRATEGY Reducing risk and improving Increasing shift to build to rent underpinned by three key factors return on capital 1) Higher return on capital with no debt and limited equity invested 2) Significant investor demand in need of our skillset 3) Growing rental demand attracted by better facilities, service and flexibility Strategy 70% of current pipeline expected to be build to rent led developments validated by more uncertain sale market 13 BUILD TO RENT PERFORMANCE Over 300 Strong progress on existing build to rent projects build to rent homes handed over Mobilising to start on site at Parkside, Nine Elms with build contract imminent Equipment Works sold for £105.5 million on a forward fund deal M&G and Invesco selected as strategic forward fund partners Further Partnerships will speed up contracting process in future 1,422 currently in progress 13 14 INDIVIDUAL SALES Stronger sales Continuing to generate sales despite rate under a subdued market £600,000 Bow Garden Square fully reserved since the end of FY 2019 Sales to individual investors no longer significant in our plans Targeting owner-occupiers for most individual sale schemes Current market conditions expected to Greater take up of continue through 2019 Help to Buy 15 DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE Development pipeline of Acquisitions in Greenford and Stratford in last six months 4,900 homes (2018: 4,000) Average price of individual sale homes in pipeline circa £550,000 Around 950 homes going through the planning process Planning refused at LEB Building as expected and we will appeal Expected value of Actively identifying new opportunities, especially build to rent £1.6 billion (2018: £1.3 billion) 15 16 PEOPLE AND CULTURE Employee satisfaction Unique skillset in London development surveyed at that appeals to our partners 98% Supportive culture reflected in employee satisfaction Leading the way in recognising mental health issues in construction Launch of new Telford Homes Academy in February 2019 100% of Training our people to develop their employees careers and support our growth would recommend Telford Homes to others 17 CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY Customer recommendation Quality of developments recognised rate in 2018 through multiple award wins 99% Immense efforts to ensure customers are happy with their homes Frequent praise from our development partners Fourth in sustainability rankings and most improved housebuilder once again Gold award Tangible benefits evident from our in 2018 NextGen ‘Building a Living Legacy’ strategy Sustainability Benchmark Report 17 18 OUTLOOK Recognised No change to profit expectation for skillset FY 2020 announced in February 2019 and excellent reputation Beyond FY 2020 continue to expect profits to grow reflecting build to rent focus Substantial progress made in our build to rent strategy and more expected Robust long-term outlook based on lower risk, less capital intensive model Structural Underpinned by demand from build to rent investors and rental customers imbalance between housing supply and demand 19 Figures within this presentation include the Group’s share of joint venture results on a proportionally consolidated basis.
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