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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook April Through September 2012

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook April Through September 2012 MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook April through September 2012 Key Messages Figure 1. Current estimated food security outcomes, April 2012 A majority of rural households are experiencing no or minimal acute food insecurity conditions and are able to meet basic food requirements throughout the country due to the newly harvested crops and affordable food prices. Localized spots of food insecurity are found in areas that were most affected by weather shocks including severe dryness, floods and cyclones/storms. From April until June, poor and very poor households in the semi-arid interior zones of Gaza and Inhambane, and southern Sofala Province are expected to remain under stressed food insecurity conditions (IPC Phase 2). From July to September, food insecurity conditions in these areas will continue and are not expected to worsen, but due to poor rainfall in the last three seasons in the southern and central areas, food insecurity will likely extend to very poor and poor households in additional districts in the semi- arid areas of Sofala and Tete Provinces. A countrywide vulnerability assessment is planned for May 2012 and will determine the type and level of needs, as well as the exact duration of Source: FEWS NET For more information on the IPC Acute Food interventions. In the meantime about 147,000 people will need Insecurity Reference Table, please see: humanitarian assistance until June. After June, humanitarian assistance, in www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale the form of non-food and food interventions, is expected to continue through the Outlook period and would keep food insecurity unchanged. The assistance could last until the next main harvest in March of 2013. Newly harvested crops from the main 2011/12 cropping season are being supplied to most markets and staple food prices are stable and decreasing according to the seasonal trend. Households are currently experiencing improved food access due to increasing food availability and decreasing food prices. It is expected that the trade flows between the northern and southern parts of the country will remain the same in the Outlook period. Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET Mozambique 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in Tel: 258 21 460588 this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Washington DC 20006 [email protected] Agency for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] www.fews.net/mozambique MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook April through September 2012 Most likely food security scenario, April through September 2012 Current food security conditions Figure 2. Most likely food security With the exception of localized areas that were most affected by weather shocks outcomes, April-June 2012 including long dry spells, floods and cyclones/storms, the majority of rural households are experiencing no or minimal acute food insecurity conditions and are able to meet basic food requirements throughout the country. Even with the apparent decline in overall production due to these weather shocks, food is available in most markets. Staple food prices are currently stable and on the decline according to the seasonal trend. While households typically consume their own produce at this time of the year, the poor and very poor in the arid and semi-arid areas have inadequate food access through their own production and have limited means to access food in the market because of very limited household cash income. This is the situation in the arid and semi-arid areas where the poor and very poor have experienced significantly low crop yields or crop failure due to periods of long-term dryness from January to March. Areas at risk or with stressed conditions of food insecurity include the semi-arid and arid areas of several districts in the southern region including the following livelihood zones: Semi-arid interior maize dominant, Semi-arid interior sorghum and millet dominant, including the districts of Gaza and Inhambane Province; Source: FEWS NET upper Limpopo riverine and the interior zones in Gaza Province. The areas at risk or with stressed conditions of food insecurity in the central region include the Figure 3. Most likely food security following livelihood zones: the Mukumbura border livelihood zone, Chioco and outcomes, July-September 2012 Changara Semi-Arid zone, Semi-Arid Northern Manica Interior zone, Semi-Arid Northern Zambezi Valley zone, Zambezi Valley zone and the Save Basin zone. Currently the situation is favorable within most at-risk areas of the central zone because households are consuming this season’s crops. In the southern region crop yields were well below average in the semi-arid areas of Gaza, Inhambane Province and parts of Sofala Province. Poor households are currently under stressed food insecurity conditions following a near total failure of main seasonal crops due to severe long-term dryness. Since the beginning of the 2011/12 agriculture season in October 2011, these areas have had significant rainfall deficits and long dry spells, resulting in a rapid expansion of moisture deficits which affected crops in the field. Many households in these areas were forced to plant multiple times after repeated attempts--resulting in crop failure since the beginning of the season. Some of the late planted crops were severely affected by the dryness during the tasseling and silking stages in January and February, which is when water requirement is critical. This year’s dryness will likely perpetuate the effects of droughts that have taken place in the same area over the past two years, resulting in severely reduced crop yields. During these two years, production outcomes in the semi-arid zones of the south and central zone have generally been characterized by near to below-average crop yields. Source: FEWS NET For more information on the IPC Acute Food Insecurity Reference Table, please see: As the end of the main cropping season approaches, crop production prospects www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale at the national level indicate a near-average performance, given that the northern zone, the most productive area of the country, and parts of the central region are performing above average. Meanwhile, the second cropping season that relies mostly on residual moisture takes place during the dry season from April to September when minimum rains are expected. On average, the second season production makes up about 15 to 20 percent of household annual food needs, and also contributes to overall household cash income, particularly from vegetable sales. In most of the semi-arid areas, households can only practice a single cropping season during the rainy season from October to March. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook April through September 2012 In March, food assistance for vulnerable households typically comes to an end when the new harvested crops become available. However, emergency assistance is expected to continue this year until the second season harvest production for those households affected by the recent shocks. According to the February rapid food security assessment by the Technical Secretariat for Food Security and Nutrition Vulnerability Assessment Group (SETSAN/GAV), 146,500 people will require humanitarian assistance until the next possible harvest. This assistance could extend from the second cropping season from July to September 2012 or until the next main season in March of 2013. A countrywide vulnerability assessment is planned for May of 2012 and will determine the type and level of humanitarian assistance needed, as well as the exact duration of interventions. Markets and Prices The increasing availability of the most affordable staple crops such as maize, rice, cassava and beans improved food access to households with less cash resources, mainly the poor and very poor in the urban and semi-urban areas that normally depend on markets to access food. The low staple food prices resulted from the increased food availability from the main harvest (still ongoing) of the 2011/2012 cropping season. In general the monthly food prices from February to March have decreased or remained unchanged following the seasonal trend. Maize prices, one of the staple foods in Mozambique, have decreased in almost all monitored markets. Significant decreases in maize prices were observed in Maxixe (22 percent) and Tete (14 percent). Rice prices have also decreased slightly in many markets or remained unchanged as the availability of maize has increased. During the same period (February to March), significant changes were observed in bean prices. A 20 percent price drop was observed in Gorongosa followed by a 14 percent drop in Maputo. Groundnuts have also followed the same trend with monthly drops in every market. The flow of food commodities has been following the normal pattern where the major producing centers are supplying the consumers and deficit areas. For instance, maize from the north is supplying the local major urban centers and parts of the central zone whereas maize from the central zone is also supplying local consumer centers and the southern zones, including Maputo city. It is also important to note that the staple food prices that sharply increased in 2008, departing from the five-year average, are now returning to the five-year average. In some markets nominal prices are even lower than the five-year average, reflecting the stability of staple food prices. April/May typically marks the period when seasonal variation of food prices is at its lowest. This period may last until June where prices are expected to start increasing. A normal trend is therefore expected in all monitored markets. The decreasing trend and gradual approach of nominal prices toward the five-year average will improve food access for the majority of households who are market dependent or turning to the markets as alternative to low crop production.
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