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A Spatial Analysis and Game Theoretical Approach Over the Disputed Islands in the Aegean Sea

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A Spatial Analysis and Game Theoretical Approach Over the Disputed Islands in the Aegean Sea View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis and Dissertation Collection 2016-06 A spatial analysis and game theoretical approach over the disputed islands in the Aegean Sea Salin, Samet A. Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/49378 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS A SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND GAME THEORETICAL APPROACH OVER THE DISPUTED ISLANDS IN THE AEGEAN SEA by Samet A. Salin June 2016 Thesis Advisor: Kyle Y. Lin Second Reader: Lyn R. Whitaker Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704–0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED (Leave blank) June 2016 Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS A SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND GAME THEORETICAL APPROACH OVER THE DISPUTED ISLANDS IN THE AEGEAN SEA 6. AUTHOR(S) Samet A. Salin 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND 10. SPONSORING / ADDRESS(ES) MONITORING AGENCY N/A REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number ____N/A____. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) Throughout history, the Aegean Sea has been a sea of crisis. Today, Turkey and Greece—the two countries surrounding the Aegean Sea—continue to dispute several issues regarding the Aegean. The most significant dispute is over the sovereignty of several islands. This research presents a method to produce an arbitration solution to allocate these disputed islands between the two countries. We identify 39 disputed islands and six important attributes for each island, including perimeter, area, population, distance to Greece, distance to Turkey, and territorial water area. After applying spatial analysis to two open-source maps, we apply utility theory, the Analytical Hierarchy Process, and the Nash arbitration scheme to propose an arbitration solution. The arbitration solution tends to allocate to Turkey those islands with larger areas of territorial waters and greater proximity to the Turkish mainland, and allocate to Greece those islands with larger population and greater proximity to the Greek mainland. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF spatial analysis, game theory, Nash arbitration scheme, Aegean, disputed islands, territorial PAGES waters, utilization, Turkey, Greece, bargaining problem, analytical hierarchy process 73 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE OF ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540–01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2–89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239–18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited A SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND GAME THEORETICAL APPROACH OVER THE DISPUTED ISLANDS IN THE AEGEAN SEA Samet A. Salin Lieutenant Junior Grade, Turkish Naval Forces B.S., Turkish Naval Academy, 2010 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2016 Approved by: Kyle Y. Lin Thesis Advisor Lyn R. Whitaker Second Reader Patricia Jacobs Chair, Department of Operations Research iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT Throughout history, the Aegean Sea has been a sea of crisis. Today, Turkey and Greece—the two countries surrounding the Aegean Sea—continue to dispute several issues regarding the Aegean. The most significant dispute is over the sovereignty of several islands. This research presents a method to produce an arbitration solution to allocate these disputed islands between the two countries. We identify 39 disputed islands and six important attributes for each island, including perimeter, area, population, distance to Greece, distance to Turkey, and territorial water area. After applying spatial analysis to two open-source maps, we apply utility theory, the Analytical Hierarchy Process, and the Nash arbitration scheme to propose an arbitration solution. The arbitration solution tends to allocate to Turkey those islands with larger areas of territorial waters and greater proximity to the Turkish mainland, and allocate to Greece those islands with larger population and greater proximity to the Greek mainland. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................1 A. GENERAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE AEGEAN SEA ...............1 B. HISTORICAL REVIEW OF THE PROBLEMS ...................................4 II. CONTEMPORARY AEGEAN SEA ISSUES BETWEEN TURKEY AND GREECE .......................................................................................................7 A. TERRITORIAL WATERS .......................................................................7 1. Turkish Thesis ................................................................................8 2. Greek Thesis ...................................................................................9 B. THE DISPUTED ISLANDS......................................................................9 1. Turkish Thesis ..............................................................................11 2. Greek Thesis .................................................................................12 III. DATA COLLECTION AND SPATIAL ANALYSIS .......................................13 A. CREATING MAPS ..................................................................................13 B. CONSTRUCTING THE DATASET......................................................17 1. Thiessen Polygons ........................................................................18 2. Spatial Operations .......................................................................19 IV. AN ARBITRATION SOLUTION ......................................................................25 A. CONVERTING VALUES TO UTILITIES...........................................25 B. APPLYING THE ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY PROCESS TO COMPUTE COMPOSITE UTILITIES ................................................28 1. Weighting Parameters .................................................................28 2. Calculating Composite Utilities ..................................................32 C. NASH ARBITRATION SCHEME ........................................................35 1. Methodology .................................................................................35 2. Results ...........................................................................................37 V. CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................41 APPENDIX. LIST OF AEGEAN ISLANDS ................................................................43 LIST OF REFERENCES ................................................................................................51 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST ...................................................................................53 vii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. The Aegean Sea. ..........................................................................................2 Figure 2. Kardak/Imia Islands. ....................................................................................6 Figure 3. Separation of polygons in ArcMAP. Source: ArcGIS (2015). ..................14 Figure 4. Illustration of aggregation in ArcMap. Source: ArcGIS (2015). ...............14 Figure 5. Aegean map colored according to sovereignty. .........................................16 Figure 6. Illustration of Thiessen polygons. Source: ArcGIS (2015). ......................19 Figure 7. Illustration of Step 1 and Step 2. ................................................................20 Figure 8. Illustration of Step 3...................................................................................20 Figure 9. Illustration of Step 4...................................................................................21 Figure 10. Six-nautical-mile expansion of territorial waters in the Aegean Sea. ........22 Figure 11. Twelve-nautical-mile expansion of territorial waters in the Aegean Sea. .............................................................................................................23
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