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Telling the Future Together the Potential of Collaborative Scenario-Building in the Transformation of Urban Governance in Portugal

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Telling the Future Together the Potential of Collaborative Scenario-Building in the Transformation of Urban Governance in Portugal Telling the Future Together The Potential of Collaborative Scenario-Building in the Transformation of Urban Governance in Portugal by Lisa Rayle B.S.E. in Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 2005 Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies and Planning and the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degrees of Master in City Planning and Master of Science in Transportation at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY June 2010 © 2010 Massachusetts Institute of Technology. All Rights Reserved. Author_______________________________________________________________ Department of Urban Studies and Planning Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering May 20, 2010 Certified by ___________________________________________________________ P. Christopher Zegras Ford Career Development Assistant Professor of Urban Planning and Transportation Department of Urban Studies and Planning Thesis Supervisor Accepted by___________________________________________________________ Professor Joseph Ferreira Chair, Master in City Planning Committee Department of Urban Studies and Planning Accepted by___________________________________________________________ Daniele Veneziano Chairman, Departmental Committee for Graduate Students Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering 1 2 Telling the Future Together The Potential of Collaborative Scenario-Building in the Transformation of Urban Governance in Portugal by Lisa Rayle Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies and Planning and the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degrees of Master in City Planning and Master of Science in Transportation Abstract In cities worldwide, the geographic and functional mismatch between urban governance structures and the actual dynamics of urban activities has hindered efforts to achieve sustainable and equitable development at the metropolitan scale. Overcoming this mismatch requires coordination between typically fragmented government agencies—and this coordination requires inter-organizational collaboration. In Portugal, the twin challenges of declining urban centers and sprawling suburbs, combined with the absence of a metropolitan planning structure, have heightened the importance of inter-agency collaboration, especially in terms of land use and transportation. In contrast to typical studies of policy integration, which tend to focus on barriers to collaboration, in this thesis I examine forces which contribute to its emergence. I consider two questions: first, what conditions and factors have actually led to inter-organizational collaboration in the Portuguese context? Second, what is the potential for a particular scenario-building process to lead to further collaboration among those who participated? Study of existing collaborative arrangements reveals five conditions which appear to contribute to the emergence of collaboration. A qualitative and quantitative analysis of scenario-building workshops conducted with stakeholders in Portugal suggests that these exercises have increased the likelihood of the future collaboration among participants to a small degree. Finally, recognizing that collaboration is necessary, but not sufficient, for better metropolitan-level development, I suggest ways in which government policy can take advantage of pro-collaboration forces. Thesis Supervisor: P. Christopher Zegras Title: Ford Career Development Assistant Professor of Urban Planning and Transportation, Department of Urban Studies and Planning Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, Massachusetts Thesis Reader: Joseph Sussman Title: JR East Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Engineering Systems, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, Massachusetts 3 4 Acknowledgements I am grateful to the many individuals who helped develop the ideas for this thesis and who made writing it possible. First, I must thank my advisor, Professor Chris Zegras, for three years of support and guidance on this project and others. I have been incredibly fortunate to work with someone with such expertise and range of insight. I also thank Professor Joe Sussman for the challenging and constructive feedback on this thesis; Professors Rosário Macário and António Pais Antunes for their work in carrying out the workshops in Coimbra and Porto that made this research possible; Luís Martinez and Marianne Hatzopoulou for expertise and feedback; Maria Spandou, Camila Garcia, Gonçalo Caiado, Gonçalo Correira, Nuno Pinto, Bruno Santos, João Bigotte, and Megan Bowman for invaluable support for this research; and Professor Judith Tendler for directing me to the right questions. A special thanks to my colleague and friend Travis Dunn, for three years of advice, encouragement, and all manner of conversation; Sevara Melibaeva, Chris Grillo, and Kate Levitt, for support and camaraderie in 1-151; and finally, all my friends and colleagues from the Department of Urban Studies and Planning and the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, who have made my time at MIT truly remarkable, and to my family, without whose love and support I would not have made it this far. The research presented in this thesis was made possible by the generous support of the Government of Portugal through the Portuguese Foundation for International Cooperation in Science, Technology and Higher Education and was undertaken as part of the MIT-Portugal Program. 5 6 Table of Contents Chapter 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 11 The SOTUR Project .................................................................................................................................................... 14 Chapter 2 A Conceptual Framework of Collaboration in Policy-Making ............................................................... 17 Terminology .................................................................................................................................................................. 18 Policy Integration ......................................................................................................................................................... 20 The Case for Integration ............................................................................................................................................. 20 Inter-Organizational Collaboration ........................................................................................................................... 22 A Conceptual Model of Collaboration ..................................................................................................................... 24 Literature on Integration and Collaboration in Land Use and Transportation .................................................. 29 Chapter 3 Communicative Scenario Planning .............................................................................................................. 35 The Communicative Planning Model ....................................................................................................................... 35 The Scenario Planning Approach .............................................................................................................................. 40 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................................... 43 Chapter 4 Methods ........................................................................................................................................................... 45 The Scenario Planning Workshops ........................................................................................................................... 45 Developing the Scenarios ............................................................................................................................................ 50 Survey Methodology .................................................................................................................................................... 51 Observation of Workshops ........................................................................................................................................ 55 Interviews ...................................................................................................................................................................... 57 Chapter 5 The Portuguese Planning System ................................................................................................................ 59 Portugal Territorial Units ............................................................................................................................................ 59 Lisbon and Porto .......................................................................................................................................................... 60 A Short History of Government Decentralization in Portugal ............................................................................ 60 Actors in the Portuguese Planning System .............................................................................................................. 62 Official Planning Framework and Planning Instruments
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