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Worth the Wait -Navigating the 2018 New Zealand Census

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Worth the Wait -Navigating the 2018 New Zealand Census 7 8 9 4 5 6 x _ 1 2 3 0 = + Worth the wait A simple guide to navigating the 2018 New Zealand Census April 2019 Introduction 3 Context History of the Census – a global tradition 4 History of the Census – New Zealand 5 Do all countries undertake a Census? 5 Can we trust Census data? 6 How councils use Census data 7 What happened with the New Zealand 2018 Census? Contents Why was the response rate to the 2018 Census so low? 8 What is Stats NZ doing to get the Census data sorted? 8 Changes to the 2018 Census Which questions have been changed? 10 Changes to geography – SA1 and SA2s 16 Meshblocks 17 SA1 geography (Statistical area 1) 17 SA2 geography (Statistical area 2) 17 Urban rural areas 18 Telling a change over time story Comparing old and new boundaries 19 How .id can help 19 About .id The .id community suite 21 profile.id 21 atlas.id 21 forecast.id 22 The 2018 Census data will be released later this year. It’s a big deal because Census data is a rich source of socio-demographic and socio-economic information at a small area, territorial, regional and national level. The 2018 Census also ushered in a number of changes to the questions asked, the geography collected for, and ultimately to the data sources (as a consequence of patchy response rates). This eBook is intended as a resource for planners and strategists to better understand the implications of these changes. Introduction 3 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census Before discussing the nuts and bolts of Census changes, it is worth pausing for a moment to consider the history of our New Zealand Census in an international context, and the profound value of Census data. 1 History 2 Trusting the data 3 How councils use the data Context History of the Census – a global tradition The tradition of Census records is almost as old as recorded history itself. There is evidence that China compiled lists of inhabitants for tax and military purposes as early as 2300 BC and for similar reasons, ancient Babylonia and Egypt conducted a Census of its citizens. However, tracking demographic change across in an entire country’s population by Census has only been common in the western world over the last 200 – 250 years. The first official Census of England and Wales was held in 1801. Subsequently the English/ Scottish Census has been conducted every ten years except in 1941, during the Second World War. Ireland was to follow suit, conducting their first modern Census in 1821, some twenty years later. Military motives were behind the early French Censuses in the mid-17th century but the first five-year enumeration in France was only initiated later, in 1836. The United States has conducted a ten-yearly Census since 1790, with the constitution mandating an “actual enumeration” of the population. Neighbouring Canada conducted its first Census in 1871, taking on a five-year cycle in 1901. While history reveals very early enumeration practice in China, The People’s Republic of China has officially conducted six Censuses (in 1953, 1964, 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010) and now commits to a ten-year cycle. Across the ditch, the Australian Census has been administered once every five years since 1961. Prior to that time, Censuses were irregular, occurring in 1901, 1911, 1921, 1933, 1947, and 1954. A 2010 United Nations survey confirmed a Census approach to population assessment as common across all continents. 4 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census History of the Census – New Zealand The Census in New Zealand has been an enduring initiative with the first undertaken in 1851. However, the early Census approach – with provinces having their own government, and undertaking provincial Censuses, at different times – meant it was difficult to assume accurate information about the nation as a whole. The first five-yearly Census of the whole country occurred in 1881, after provincial governments were abolished in 1877. Five-yearly Censuses have continued in New Zealand to the present day, except for three instances. The Depression caused the 1931 Census to be abandoned. In 1941 with many New Zealanders involved in World War II, the Census was postponed until the end of the war. More recently, the Census scheduled for March 2011 was not held because of the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake. Do all countries undertake a Census? The procedure of systematically acquiring and recording information about a population through a Census is a world-wide practice, yet not all countries subscribe. While the United Nations passed a resolution requiring all member countries to complete a Census by 2004, there are some notable exceptions. Germany abandoned their Census in 1987 because of citizens’ fears of how the information would be used. The Netherlands halted their Census practice in 1971 due to high refusal rates. Denmark has turned to other information sources for data about their population. However, overall a Census approach to population assessment is common across all continents as the below 2010 United Nations survey results confirm. Main Census methodology for the 2010 Census round by geographical region Geographical region Total responding countries Full field enumeration No. % Africa 27 27 100 America North 17 17 100 America South 7 7 100 Asia 30 26 87 Europe 36 22 61 Oceania 6 6 100 Total 123 105 85 The sustained history of a national Census in New Zealand and internationally, strongly supportsSource: 2011/2012 the survey value for theof review Census of the 2010data. World Discussions Programme on Population on changing and Housing Censuses, practices question for 4. Census taking appear largely focused on the frequency and approach to Census delivery. Alternatives historically discussed include continuing with present five-year approach or pushing out to a ten-year cycle, ten-year short Census with large-scale intercensal surveys, rolling Census and administrative Census. Whatever the future decisions are, electronic channels or e-Census practices will have a huge future part to play. 5 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census Can we trust Census data? A Census is a complete and accurate snapshot of the New Zealand population. It is a survey conducted on all things belonging to any given population. The key point is the “full set” approach, rather than taking a sample. The concerns sometimes expressed for the privacy of information gathered are responded to with strict randomisation of the data and privacy measures. The resulting full set of socio-demographic and economic data is critical for all government (national and local) strategy, planning and policy work e.g. District Health Board funding is based on the population count in the area the DHB covers. Context 6 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census How councils use Census data Identify population changes by age and area to inform Assets & Infrastructure the development of Long Term Asset Management Plans and identify need/timing for new infrastructure. Plan and deliver services and facilities to where Community Services they are needed most, based on the changing community characteristics. Create meaningful induction briefings for new elected Context Executive & Governance members - or Census update briefings for management and Elected members Identify population and dwelling trends to refine Corporate & Finance growth assumptions in the Long Term Financial Plan and rating policies Obtain a clear picture of current housing stock, respond Development Planning to government targets with confidence. Find evidence to produce stronger grant applications, Economic Development support local business decision making and build business cases to attract investment. Use data to prepare more compelling funding Grants submissions by demonstrating disadvantage or emerging community needs Understanding cultural and linguistic trends allows Library libraries to manage collections accordingly. Marketing & Promote the area to prospective residents, Communications businesses and investors. Confidently stand behind policy built on a reliable Policy evidence base. Understand population trends and emerging age Recreation Planning characteristics to invest in recreation assets in the most appropriate areas. Uncover trends of disadvantage or disability Social Planning to build more effective social programs. Clearly see trends in household type data, by area, to assist Waste Management in minimising the costs of logistics for waste collection. 7 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census What happened with the New Zealand 2018 Census? It is well known that the release of 2018 Census data has been delayed. Stats NZ confirmed that they now have 2018 Census dataset records for around 4.7 million people. Stats NZ will use “real data about real people ... to fill the gaps” Stats NZ will begin releasing datasets in late September 2019. Why was the response rate to the 2018 Census so low? Stats NZ think that the inconsistent response rate was driven by three main factors. 2018 Census 2018 Those who did not have online There needed to be more In the 2018 Census, access, or who preferred to direct contact with households there were many households complete their Census in paper at the time of the Census launch where not all members form had to actively request to encourage response completed the individual forms. paper forms. The timing of the resulting turnaround and receipt of the paper forms became a problem for some people. What is Stats NZ doing to get the Census data sorted? The delay allows Stats NZ to carefully consider how to respond to the patchy response rate in some areas and investigate how they might build a more complete picture of the population by gathering data for the Census areas from other government records including births, tax, health and education.
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