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Worth the wait A simple guide to navigating the 2018 Census

April 2019 Introduction 3

Context History of the Census – a global tradition 4 History of the Census – New Zealand 5 Do all countries undertake a Census? 5 Can we trust Census data? 6 How councils use Census data 7

What happened with the New Zealand 2018 Census? Contents Why was the response rate to the 2018 Census so low? 8 What is Stats NZ doing to get the Census data sorted? 8

Changes to the 2018 Census Which questions have been changed? 10

Changes to geography – SA1 and SA2s 16 Meshblocks 17 SA1 geography (Statistical area 1) 17 SA2 geography (Statistical area 2) 17 Urban rural areas 18

Telling a change over time story Comparing old and new boundaries 19 How .id can help 19

About .id The .id community suite 21 profile.id 21 atlas.id 21 forecast.id 22 The 2018 Census data will be released later this year. It’s a big deal because Census data is a rich source of socio-demographic and socio-economic information at a small area, territorial, regional and national level. The 2018 Census also ushered in a number of changes to the questions asked, the geography collected for, and ultimately to the data sources (as a consequence of patchy response rates). This eBook is intended as a resource for planners and strategists to better understand the implications of these changes. Introduction

3 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census Before discussing the nuts and bolts of Census changes, it is worth pausing for a moment to consider the history of our in an international context, and the profound value of Census data. 1 History

2 Trusting the data

3 How councils use the data Context History of the Census – a global tradition

The tradition of Census records is almost as old as recorded history itself. There is evidence that compiled lists of inhabitants for tax and military purposes as early as 2300 BC and for similar reasons, ancient Babylonia and Egypt conducted a Census of its citizens. However, tracking demographic change across in an entire country’s population by Census has only been common in the western world over the last 200 – 250 years.

The first official Census of and Wales was held in 1801. Subsequently the English/ Scottish Census has been conducted every ten years except in 1941, during the Second World War. Ireland was to follow suit, conducting their first modern Census in 1821, some twenty years later. Military motives were behind the early French Censuses in the mid-17th century but the first five-year enumeration in France was only initiated later, in 1836.

The has conducted a ten-yearly Census since 1790, with the constitution mandating an “actual enumeration” of the population. Neighbouring Canada conducted its first Census in 1871, taking on a five-year cycle in 1901. While history reveals very early enumeration practice in China, The People’s Republic of China has officially conducted six Censuses (in 1953, 1964, 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010) and now commits to a ten-year cycle. Across the ditch, the Australian Census has been administered once every five years since 1961. Prior to that time, Censuses were irregular, occurring in 1901, 1911, 1921, 1933, 1947, and 1954.

A 2010 United Nations survey confirmed a Census approach to population assessment as common across all continents.

4 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census History of the Census – New Zealand

The Census in New Zealand has been an enduring initiative with the first undertaken in 1851. However, the early Census approach – with provinces having their own government, and undertaking provincial Censuses, at different times – meant it was difficult to assume accurate information about the nation as a whole. The first five-yearly Census of the whole country occurred in 1881, after provincial governments were abolished in 1877.

Five-yearly Censuses have continued in New Zealand to the present day, except for three instances. The Depression caused the 1931 Census to be abandoned. In 1941 with many New Zealanders involved in World War II, the Census was postponed until the end of the war. More recently, the Census scheduled for March 2011 was not held because of the February 2011 earthquake.

Do all countries undertake a Census?

The procedure of systematically acquiring and recording information about a population through a Census is a world-wide practice, yet not all countries subscribe. While the United Nations passed a resolution requiring all member countries to complete a Census by 2004, there are some notable exceptions. Germany abandoned their Census in 1987 because of citizens’ fears of how the information would be used. The Netherlands halted their Census practice in 1971 due to high refusal rates. Denmark has turned to other information sources for data about their population.

However, overall a Census approach to population assessment is common across all continents as the below 2010 United Nations survey results confirm.

Main Census methodology for the 2010 Census round by geographical region

Geographical region Total responding countries Full field enumeration No. % Africa 27 27 100 America North 17 17 100 America South 7 7 100 Asia 30 26 87 Europe 36 22 61 Oceania 6 6 100 Total 123 105 85

The sustained history of a national Census in New Zealand and internationally, strongly supportsSource: 2011/2012 the survey value for theof review Census of the 2010data. World Discussions Programme on Population on changing and Housing Censuses, practices question for 4. Census taking appear largely focused on the frequency and approach to Census delivery. Alternatives historically discussed include continuing with present five-year approach or pushing out to a ten-year cycle, ten-year short Census with large-scale intercensal surveys, rolling Census and administrative Census. Whatever the future decisions are, electronic channels or e-Census practices will have a huge future part to play.

5 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census Can we trust Census data?

A Census is a complete and accurate snapshot of the New Zealand population. It is a survey conducted on all things belonging to any given population. The key point is the “full set” approach, rather than taking a sample.

The concerns sometimes expressed for the privacy of information gathered are responded to with strict randomisation of the data and privacy measures. The resulting full set of socio-demographic and economic data is critical for all government (national and local) strategy, planning and policy work e.g. District Health Board funding is based on the population count in the area the DHB covers. Context

6 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census How councils use Census data

Identify population changes by age and area to inform Assets & Infrastructure the development of Long Term Asset Management Plans and identify need/timing for new infrastructure.

Plan and deliver services and facilities to where Community Services they are needed most, based on the changing community characteristics.

Create meaningful induction briefings for new elected Context Executive & Governance members - or Census update briefings for management and Elected members

Identify population and dwelling trends to refine Corporate & Finance growth assumptions in the Long Term Financial Plan and rating policies

Obtain a clear picture of current housing stock, respond Development Planning to government targets with confidence.

Find evidence to produce stronger grant applications, Economic Development support local business decision making and build business cases to attract investment.

Use data to prepare more compelling funding Grants submissions by demonstrating disadvantage or emerging community needs

Understanding cultural and linguistic trends allows Library libraries to manage collections accordingly.

Marketing & Promote the area to prospective residents, Communications businesses and investors.

Confidently stand behind policy built on a reliable Policy evidence base.

Understand population trends and emerging age Recreation Planning characteristics to invest in recreation assets in the most appropriate areas.

Uncover trends of disadvantage or disability Social Planning to build more effective social programs.

Clearly see trends in household type data, by area, to assist Waste Management in minimising the costs of logistics for waste collection.

7 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census What happened with the New Zealand 2018 Census?

It is well known that the release of 2018 Census data has been delayed.

Stats NZ confirmed that they now have 2018 Census dataset records for around 4.7 million people. Stats NZ will use “real data about real people ... to fill the gaps” Stats NZ will begin releasing datasets in late September 2019.

Why was the response rate to the 2018 Census so low? Stats NZ think that the inconsistent response rate was driven by three main factors. 2018 Census 2018

Those who did not have online There needed to be more In the 2018 Census, access, or who preferred to direct contact with households there were many households complete their Census in paper at the time of the Census launch where not all members form had to actively request to encourage response completed the individual forms. paper forms. The timing of the resulting turnaround and receipt of the paper forms became a problem for some people.

What is Stats NZ doing to get the Census data sorted?

The delay allows Stats NZ to carefully consider how to respond to the patchy response rate in some areas and investigate how they might build a more complete picture of the population by gathering data for the Census areas from other government records including births, tax, health and education. However, at last report, the work to date has identified continuing gaps in the data – for example household composition, and Iwi affiliation. Using other data sources - imputation Stats NZ use two types of imputation - donor and administrative data. Donor imputation matches the details of similar respondents to a response that has missing and unidentifiable data. Donor imputation is based on the Nearest-neighbour Imputation Methodology (NIM). and was first used to perform edit and imputation on Census data.

8 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census The other imputation methodology - administrative data imputation - uses information on the respondent gathered from other datasets (e.g. health or education datasets), generating a response based on respondent’s own characteristics.

Stats NZ will rely heavily on administrative data for the 2018 Census, using “real data from real people”.

In some topics there will still be issues with the volume of missing data and gaps in alternative sources. Stats NZ have warned that some data may not be of sufficient quality to release. This can create difficulties where, for instance, it may be possible to get a total population for an area, but not a full breakdown of all characteristics of the population.

The alternative, donor imputations, may have been rejected as an option because of the risk of under-identifying disadvantaged groups, who may be less likely to have filled in the Census form completely. If donor records are from higher socio-economic households, this would mask disadvantage which is crucial for council planning. Census is essential for understanding populations that “fall through the cracks” in areas of need, and in many cases, these are the areas with the lower response rates.

2018 Census Administrative data imputation is not an answer to all problems though. Privacy considerations can make matching difficult. Also, populations who are not registered in administrative databases would still be missed.

Caution will be carefully exercised by Stats NZ to ensure that whatever datasets are released will meet Stats NZ’s stringent quality criteria for population structure information. Stats NZ will release more information about the methodologies with the data release, and .id will be looking at this closely to ensure the data we use in our community profiles is suitable for use. International support and guidance Stats NZ has taken a wide-ranging approach to the problem. They have also set up an external panel of experts, reaching out to international statisticians in similar government agencies for feedback and to help guide and inform a separate review process – the report from this piece of work is due in July 2019.

Nationally Stats NZ continue to liaise with local stakeholders to make sure that the adjusted data sets will meet planning needs (e.g. how to meet the requirements of the electoral boundary review in 2020).

9 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census Changes to the 2018 Census

Quite apart from the difficulties experienced with the collection of Census data, planners also need to be aware of the changes that have been made to the geography framework and to some of the Census questions. Those using the Census data will need to be mindful of the comparability of data and the implication of changes in strategies, plans and policies.

Which questions have been changed?

R C T E R C Changes H A C H O A R H O A N N E J N I A A G D G N M E O M E

G

M E

Population structure Question Number of children born Change The word ‘alive’ was removed from the tick box so as not to exclude stillbirths.

Location Question Usual residence one year ago and usual residence five years ago Change Usual residence one year ago will be included in 2018, being exchanged for the usual residence five years ago question asked in recent Censuses. Usual residence five years ago will still be produced by Stats NZ using different data sources. The change was driven by increasing population mobility and the need for more current information to produce accurate population estimates.

10 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census Ethnicity and Culture Question Iwi affiliation Change Iwi counts may be affected by classification standard and categories changes.The data is used for Treaty of Waitangi claims, and helps with planning by government, councils and local government, and Iwi.

Question Religious affiliation Change For 2018, information on religious affiliations was collected as text. The change will likely affect data comparability between Censuses but should deliver better-quality data on religious diversity.

11 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census Education and training Question Level of post-school qualification Change New information was collected on whether the qualification was attained in New Zealand or overseas.

Question Study participation Change This question is now asked of all New Zealand usual residents including pre-schoolers and school children aged under 15 years. Previously, only those aged 15 years and over were asked the question. This change will support gathering travel data on those going to education and educational institutions (see the transport section for related information).

Income Question Sources of personal income Change Changes in category labels - Jobseeker Support, Sole Parent Support, and Supported Living Payment benefits have replaced the Unemployment Benefit, Domestic Purposes Benefit, and the Invalid’s and Sickness Benefits - now reflecting current Work and Income New Zealand labels.

12 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census Housing Question Access to telecommunication systems Change The fax option will be removed as the technology is fast becoming obsolete.

Question Housing quality (access to basic amenities, dwelling dampness indicator, dwelling mould indicator) Change New questions on mould and dampness indicators are now included. A question on access to basic amenities has been reinstated (last collected in 1996). The additional questions reflect housing quality as a leading statistic for development. The data will help with a better understanding of the state of New Zealand’s housing, household composition, tenure, housing quality issues, and shape council’s responses to legislative requirements.

Question Main types of heating Change Information on the types of appliances used is now asked as well as fuel types This data has a myriad of applications including better understanding energy demands, distribution requirements, energy efficiency and conservation, supporting requirements for monitoring air quality, health outcomes and risk factors for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, identifying areas affected by fuel poverty, informing public health interventions, and informing civil defence planning.

Question Occupied dwelling type Change More detail on the number of storeys was collected in 2018, plus dwellings joined to businesses are now in the joined dwelling categories instead of ‘occupied private dwelling not further defined’. The changes will provide better information on density patterns.

Question Sector of landlord Change The question now includes new categories for community housing providers to show who a household rents their home from, e.g. a trust, Housing New Zealand, or the local council.

13 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census Transport Question Main means of travel to education and educational institution address Change A new topic which enable info on travel to education to be gathered. Previously, only information on travel to work has been collected. This data will provide a more detailed and complete picture of transport patterns.

Question Main means of travel to work Change In 2018 the usual means of travel was asked for rather than means of travel on Census day. A “ferries” category was also included. Used for transport and civil defence planning, when combined with home and workplace address the question supports analysis of transport flows and transport use.

Question Number of motor vehicles Change More specific detail is gathered on households with three or more cars

14 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census Health Question Disability/activity limitations Change New questions on how disabilities may limit basic activities will produce an indicator of disability status for the New Zealand population (aged five years and over). The topic data will provide a measure of social inclusion and enable participation comparisons in areas such as employment and education.

Stats NZ acknowledge that the new questions will not identify every disabled person in every community, however the 2018 Census was the first-time data on disability was a direct output from the Census. It will allow cross tabulations with other Census data. The new data will not be comparable with the previous information.

More information

Read the latest updates about the 2018 Census at: stats.govt.nz/2018-census/

15 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census Changes to geography – SA1 and SA2s

The SSGA18 is New Zealand’s official statistical geographic area standard. The framework enables statistical entities or units (e.g. dwellings, people or businesses) to be linked to the location where they are placed, live or work.

All the data Stats NZ collects is referenced to a specific place and time. Place can be any geography (e.g. city, lake, township or region), and the point of developing statistical geographical standards is to be able to consistently and accurately identify the size of change as well as where change occurs.

In 2018, the SSGA18 underwent its first major review since 1989. The new boundaries are designed to reflect current land use and spatial patterns. Privacy is still a pivotal requirement for Stats NZ, but the new geographies will also enable more finely grained information at the smaller area level

The new statistical geographies are:

1 meshblock

2 statistical area 1 (SA1)

3 statistical area 2 (SA2)

4 urban rural areas. Changes to geography

16 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census 1 Meshblocks

53,589 in total. Our smallest geography. Identified by a seven-digit code. Meshblocks cover New Zealand and extend out to sea to cover NZ’s 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Ideally around 30–60 dwellings (around 60–120 residents).

2 SA1 geography (Statistical area 1)

29,889 SA1s in total. A new output geography. Identified by a seven-digit number starting with 7. An aggregation of meshblocks. Ideally around 100–200 residents (maximum 500).

3 SA2 geography (Statistical area 2)

2,253 in total. Identified by a name (like the old Census area units) and a numeric code which has 6 digits (starting with 1 or 2 in the or 3 in the South). City SA2s usually have a population of 2,000–4,000 residents.

Changes to geography District council SA2s will usually have a population of 1,000–3,000 residents. This geography level seeks to show the communities/neighbourhoods. that combine socially and economically.

More information

You can access more detail from Stats NZ Geographic boundary files HERE

17 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census 4 Urban rural

178 urban areas and 400 rural settlements

Indentified by a name and a numeric code. Urban rural codes have four digits. North Island locations start with a ‘1’, codes start with a ‘2’, and oceanic codes start with a ‘6’.

Urban areas are also further defined according to their estimated resident population major urban area – 100,000 or more residents large urban area – 30,000–99,999 residents medium urban area – 10,000–29,999 residents small urban area – 1,000–9,999 residents.

Rural areas are located outside urban areas, and can be classified as either rural settlements or other rural. Rural settlements comprise of a huddle of dwellings centered around at least one public or community building (e.g. a marae, church or school).

The urban rural geography divides NZ into areas based on similar urban or rural characteristics. Urban areas (representing more densely developed places) are defined by population size; rural areas are classified as rural settlements or rural other; and water areas are classified as inland water, inlet, or oceanic. Changes to geography

18 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census Telling a change over time story

Comparing old and new boundaries

For some councils, the change from old boundaries to new will be relatively minor, with few significant boundary shifts. However, other councils will experience much wider change and Story these councils need to have a clear idea of what boundaries have been shifted and which plans, and strategies will be impacted.

How .id can help

For those councils and other authorities who subscribe to .id’s community profiles, such as profile.idnz.co.nz/, you will have a reliable picture of how your place is changing over time, as we ensure all area boundaries are consistent over time.

19 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census .id is a company of demographers, population forecasters, spatial analysts and housing experts who, for 20 years, have built information products for local governments across and New Zealand.

We’re proud to work with councils including Wellington City, Greater Wellington, Napier, Far North, , Kapiti Coast, , Hutt City, , Whangarei and Ashburton, as well as smaller councils like Thames Coromandel, Carterton, , South Wairarapa, Ruapehu and .

.id stands for ‘informed decisions’. We provide decision

About .id makers within government and the community with readily accessible, easy-to-use and understand information about their communities and how they are changing.

We believe that by making demographic information accessible to the broadest possible audience, we promote evidence-based decision making that contributes to a fairer and more sustainable society.

Learn more about how we help local governments make informed decisions at .id.com.au.

20 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census The .id community suite

Community population profiles to help you understand your local government and small area level. profile.id uses Census data to tell a powerful story about the demographic characteristics of communities, how they are changing and how they compare to other areas. Over 250 councils across Australia and New Zealand subscribe to this interactive tool and make the information available as a public resource for everyone to access. .id tools profile.id helps you: Plan services to reach the right people. Attract investment using statistics. Provide evidence for funding submissions. Support advocacy efforts. Make better investment decisions.

Learn more about profile.id here

Visualise demographic information spatially with powerful thematic maps. atlas.id is a powerful suite of online thematic maps using Census data to show the distribution of target populations. Over 180 councils across Australia and New Zealand subscribe to this interactive tool and make the information available as a public resource for everyone to access. atlas.id helps you: Identify the location and concentration of target populations (e.g. children, elderly, disadvantaged) Build a compelling case for funding submissions Uncover groups of people often hidden by more general statistics Support advocacy efforts Manage assets to meet changing demands Make better use of internal resources Deliver consistent figures in reports and information Build confidence in decision making

Learn more about atlas.id here

21 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census Understand changes in local populations, now and in the future. forecast.id allows you to explore what is driving population change in your community. These single-scenario forecasts show how population, dwellings and households are most likely to change over the next 30 years. Over 140 councils across Australia and New Zealand subscribe to this interactive tool and make the information available as a public resource for everyone to access. forecast.id helps you: Provide a trusted evidence-base for planning Allocate resources when and where they are most needed Manage assets to meet changing demands Deliver consistent figures in reports and information Provide evidence for funding submissions Build confidence in decision making Support advocacy efforts Make better investment decisions

Learn more about forecast.id here

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22 Worth the wait: A simple guide to navigating the 2018 census