1 2013 JOHN MCCONNICO/AP/SIPA JOHN

Moldova’s political crisis

After a period of relative stability and significant launched significant reforms in areas that ­include progress in its reform efforts, Moldovan politics democratisation and freedom of the ­media, the has (re)entered a phase of instability, ­creating economy, the police, and education. It has also uncertainty about its future direction and its invested significantly in ­infrastructure. In just ­relationship with the EU. over a year, Moldova has also moved ­within reach of completing negotiations with the EU Following a disputed election and civil ­unrest on an ­Association ­Agreement and a Deep and in April 2009, a three-party, pro-European ­Comprehensive Free Trade ­Agreement (DCFTA), ­coalition government - known as the Alliance for and it has proved effective in implementing a se- ­European Integration (AEI) - has been in ­office ries of reforms - ­including on border management since ­September 2009. The AEI is led by the – which stem from the ­ongoing visa dialogue with acting Prime Minister Vlad Filat, leader of the the EU. ­Liberal Democrat Party (LDP). The other coali- tion ­parties are the ­Democratic ­Party (PD) and the Nonetheless, as highlighted in the Commission’s Liberal Party (PL). The main opposition force, the report, areas remain where progress has been more ­Communist ­Party, is less ­unequivocally ­supportive limited. In particular, the fight against corruption of ­Moldova’s ­European ambitions, advocating and the reform of the judicial system are crucial ­instead a greater ­degree of ­equidistance between to Moldova’s reform efforts and a lack of progress the EU and Russia.­ in these areas is a significant factor in a wider ­political crisis which currently risks ­undermining The election of Nicolae Timofti as President of the all that has been achieved. Republic of Moldova in March 2012 ­ended a long period of political and ­constitutional ­deadlock, Where from paving the way for political ­stabilisation and an ac- celeration of large-scale reforms. A recent ­European In December 2012, a man was shot and killed Commission Progress Report on the ­European ­during a hunting party attended by senior ­members ­Neighbourhood Policy (March 2013) highlighted of Moldova’s elite, many of whom are alleged to the significant advances made by Moldova and have close links to the Democratic Party and its reconfirmed its potential to ­become the success deputy chair Vlad Plahotniuc, a rich ­businessman. story of the Eastern Partnership­ (EaP). An attempt to cover up this incident by the coun- try’s general prosecutor (a PD appointee who was Against a difficult economic backdrop, ­Moldova present at the hunt) was ­subsequently exposed, has achieved cumulative GDP growth of 15% dur- leading to his ­resignation at the insistence of ing the period 2010-2012. The ­government has Prime Minister Filat.

European Union Institute for Security Studies March 2013 1 This was followed by significant increase in po- If these negotiations fail, and if no other ­alternative litical tensions within the ruling coalition which political alliance emerges, early ­elections will be translated into a wave of allegations and ­inquiries unavoidable. The outcome would be highly un- against members of the government by the coun- certain. It could bring the same coalition back try’s National Anti-Corruption ­Centre. Although to power, or it could lead to a comeback of the nominally independent, there are suggestions that ­Communists either with a full majority or in alli- this institution has close links to the Democratic ance with another party. Party. The timing and manner of these accusations (including the leaking to the media of potentially The ongoing political ­crisis has caused serious illegal phone intercepts involving the head of the concern in the EU, which has invested significant tax ­office, the time, effort ­minister of and finan- interior and ‘Despite the ongoing political tension, ­Moldova cial resources the prime into Moldova. ­minister) ­potentially remains the best example of a ­successful While refusing were there- transformation under the Union’s ­Eastern Partnership.’ to be drawn fore widely into domestic interpreted politics, EU as being politically motivated. Three EU foreign officials and ­member state representatives have ministers (from Poland, Sweden and the UK) visit- urged stability and ­expressed hope that Moldova ing Moldova in February raised concerns regard- will continue along its path to a closer relationship ing the application of ‘selective’ justice. with the EU. As part of the escalating political tensions, Filat’s Despite the ongoing political tension, ­Moldova Liberal Democratic Party withdrew from the coali- potentially remains the best example of a success- tion and proposed negotiations on a new coalition ful transformation under the Union’s ­Eastern Part- agreement, including steps to de-politicise the nership. The EU is right to continue its discreet country’s legal institutions. The party then voted support for a rebooted pro-European coalition, together with the ­Communist opposition to re- but this probably needs to go hand in hand with move ­Plahotniuc from his position as first deputy a strong pro-reform message, particularly in rela- speaker of the parliament. tion to the judicial system, the ‘de-politicisation’ of state institutions, and the fight against corrup- On 5 March this exchange of political blows led tion. to a convergence between the Democratic and the Communist parties to pass a vote of no confi- In this respect, the EU could offer the prospect dence against the government. The Liberal ­Party of further support, in terms of financial assist- abstained but made it clear it no longer sup- ance and technical expertise, to undertake and ported Filat’s premiership. Under the terms of the implement these reforms. It could also propose Moldovan Constitution, Filat and his team were the launch of a Rule of Law Mission to advise on forced to resign but remain in office as a caretaker a ­comprehensive reform of the judicial sector. interim government. ­Finally, some voices inside Moldova have suggest- ed that qualified foreign representatives could be Where next appointed to key positions, such as in the customs or tax office, or even the­general prosecutor’s ­office The three governing parties are now trying to re- and the ­Anti-Corruption Centre – something the negotiate a fresh coalition agreement. All sides EU could also support as part of a broader ­package. have claimed to be united in the desire to reach Despite the current crisis, it is certainly not too a deal in order to finalise Moldova’s negotiations late to make Moldova a success story. with the EU and avoid early elections. Two issues are likely to be key to a successful agreement: a) whether all sides will agree to ­depoliticise cer- tain key state institutions; b) whether the parties can agree on the choice of prime minister.

European Union Institute for Security Studies March 2013 2

QN-AL-13-001-2A-N | ISSN 2315-1129