Bitcoin: a Seemingly Rampant Elevator, Or Is Someone Pushing Its Buttons?

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Bitcoin: a Seemingly Rampant Elevator, Or Is Someone Pushing Its Buttons? Södertörn University | Institution for Social Sciences Bachelor Thesis (15 hp) | Business Studies - Finance | Spring Semester 2014 Bitcoin: A Seemingly Rampant Elevator, or is Someone Pushing its Buttons? - A Case Study on Bitcoin’s Fluctuations in Price and Concept. Author: Oscar Wandery Supervisor: Maria Smolander Stockholm Södertörn University Business Studies Abstract This study looks at the price mechanism of the digital quasi-currency bitcoin. Through statistical analysis of secondary data a probable significant results regarding correlation and regression between price and different independent variables have been established. The final analysis is pointing towards network effects being a part of the determinants for the crypto-currency’s price. Complimentary to the quantitative study explained above, an implementation of hermeneutic analysis based on secondary theoretical sources, journalistic opinion and a professional qualified judgment has aided the author and study in conceptual understanding. This interpretation has semantic character, and takes a Socratic kickoff regarding the nature of bitcoin as a financial instrument. The analysis runs back and forth throughout the course of the study and finally intertwines with qualitative results in the discussion. It is the author’s impression that a significant dimorphism surrounds bitcoin, calling for a conceptual differentiation leading to practical rethinking. The study takes the shape of a case-study conducted over four months. The author’s location during the process of writing was Stockholm Sweden, but the gathered data is of transnational character. Keywords: Bitcoin, crypto-currency, money, digital money, price fluctuations, financial instruments, financial systems. 2 Stockholm Södertörn University Business Studies Sammanfattning Den här studien tittar på prismekanismen hos den digitala kvasi-valören bitcoin. Genom statistisk analys av sekundärdata har sannolikt signifikanta resultat angående korrelation och linjärregrission mellan pris och olika oberoende variabler ettablerats. Den slutgiltiga analysen pekar mot att nätverksvariabler är delaktiga i avgörandet av krypto-valutans pris. Komplimentärt till den kvantitativa studen förklarad ovanför så har en implementation av hermeneutisk analys basserad på sekundära källor, journalistiska åsikter och ett professionellt kvalifiserat uttalande hjälpt författaren samt studien i dess konceptuella förståelse. Denna tolkning har semantisk karaktär, och tar Sokratisk avstamp gällande bitcoins natur som ett finansielt instrument. Analysen går fram och tillbaka genom uppsatsens gång, för att slutligen sammanvävas med de kvantitativa resultaten i uppsatsens diskussion. Det är denna förfatares intryck att en signifikant dimorphism omsluter bitcoin och kallar för en konceptuel differensiering som leder till praktiskt nytänkande. Studen tar formen av en fallstudie som genomförts om loppet av fyra månader. Författarens plats genom skrivandeprocessen var Stockholm Sverige, men den samlade datan har transnationell karaktär. Nyckelord: Bitcoin, krypto-valuta, pengar, digitala pengar, pris fluktuationer, finansiella instrument, finansiella system. 3 Stockholm Södertörn University Business Studies Preface As a student of not only business, but philosophy, and history, my interests span both the realms of finance and concept. The process in which we quantify terms into comparable mathematical evaluations, such as measuring risk in terms of beta, or mergers and acquisitions in terms of synergies, helps us to make qualified decisions. These practical tools enable us to express concepts in comparable values, and subsequently to make choices based on rational decision where we would otherwise have to rely on gut feeling. But it’s my opinion that these tools in their estimations also depend upon certain conceptual ideas, like an assumption of relatively homogenous relationships between the measured objects for example. Therefore, as soon as I heard of bitcoin I was intrigued. How do we evaluate this, and based on what conceptual ideas? However, understanding bitcoin meant understanding the system in which it is situated; the conceptual context—or one might say its contingency. And in a way this thesis has been a project of not only explanation, but exploration. Of course, an understanding such as the one mentioned is not something one simply accumulates in the course of a few months. Not even years, decades or a lifetime would be enough for such a task. Through that perspective, this knowledge is barely grasped upon here. Still, the process of writing and exploring this phenomenon has been very rewarding, and I’m happy for setting foot on this path. I would like to take the time to especially thank Tim Jones for his participation. His expertise on the subject has been very helpful and guiding through the course of this study. I would also like to thank my supervisor Maria Smolander for her help and support, as well as Robert Leonardi for extending valuable inspiration. Lastly special thanks are given to friends and colleagues donating encouragement and support. 4 Stockholm Södertörn University Business Studies Table of Contents 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 9 1.1 Background.............................................................................................................................................. 9 1.1.1 Digital Money and the Media ........................................................................................................... 9 1.1.2 Digital Money and the Future ........................................................................................................ 10 1.1.3 Digital Money, Fiat Money and the Government ........................................................................... 12 1.1.4 Digital Money; The problem .......................................................................................................... 13 1.2 Problematization .................................................................................................................................... 16 1.3 Study Inquiry ......................................................................................................................................... 17 1.4 Purpose .................................................................................................................................................. 17 1.5 Delimitations ......................................................................................................................................... 17 1.6 Terms ..................................................................................................................................................... 18 1.6.1 Money ............................................................................................................................................. 18 1.6.2 Currency ......................................................................................................................................... 20 1.6.3 Exchange Rate ................................................................................................................................ 20 1.6.4 Different words for Digital Money ................................................................................................. 21 1.6.6 Digital Money ................................................................................................................................. 21 1.6.7 My Definition of Digital Money ...................................................................................................... 22 2. The Field of Study ...................................................................................................................................... 23 2.1 Price Affecting Factors .......................................................................................................................... 23 2.1.1 Market Effects ................................................................................................................................. 24 2.1.2 Exchange Rate ................................................................................................................................ 26 2.1.3 Law of One Price & Purchasing Power Parity .............................................................................. 27 2.1.4 Network Effects ............................................................................................................................... 27 2.1.5 Bubbles ........................................................................................................................................... 30 2.2 The Evolution of Money, & the Monetary System ............................................................................... 32 2.2.1 The Evolution of Money .................................................................................................................. 32 2.2.2 Money Supply & Currency Circulation .......................................................................................... 33 2.3 Bitcoin ................................................................................................................................................... 36 2.3.1 The Workings of Bitcoin ................................................................................................................. 36 2.3.2 The Critique
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