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HOUSING LAND SUPPLY 31St March 2010 (Demonstrating a 5 Year Supply of Deliverable Sites)

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HOUSING LAND SUPPLY 31St March 2010 (Demonstrating a 5 Year Supply of Deliverable Sites) Tameside MBC HOUSING LAND SUPPLY 31st March 2010 (Demonstrating a 5 Year Supply of Deliverable Sites) The Government’s Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3): Housing requires Local Planning Authorities to identify a 5-year supply of housing land to ensure there are enough sites to meet requirements. The supply needs to be assessed to demonstrate whether it is deliverable i.e. taking account of whether sites can be considered available, suitable and achievable. The approach taken by Tameside is intended to follow that recommended in supplementary advice produced by the Department of Communities and Local Government (CLG) on “Demonstrating a 5 Year Supply of Deliverable Sites”. However, for practical purposes, certain assumptions have been made in order to avoid a disproportionate amount of work assessing whether sites are achievable in the current, difficult market conditions. 1. Our housing requirements on 31st March 2010 are those set out in the North West of England Plan Regional Spatial Strategy to 2021, published on 30th September 2008. The required annual average rate of provision (net of clearance replacement) for the period 2003-2021 is 750 dwellings per annum. This equates to 3,750 dwellings net for any 5 years in the plan period, leaving aside any questions of previous under achievement. 2. We have identified sites with the potential to deliver housing over the 5 year period from April 2010 to March 2015, taking account of sites already under construction, those with planning permission and those allocated in our UDP or other formally adopted planning documents. We have also considered sites where permission has expired, or an application is pending or has been withdrawn. The figures relate to the supply on 31st March 2010 and are the fourth set of figures produced for Tameside, following those for 31st March 2007, 31st March 2008 and 31st December 2008. 3. The first figures were produced for the baseline date of 31st March 2007 to comply with CLG advice that these assessments should first relate to the level of housing provision to be delivered from 1st April 2007 to the end of March 2012. 4. As far as practical, we have assessed whether sites are deliverable in the terms of paragraph 54 of PPS3, drawing upon up-to-date information and ensuring that judgements are clearly set out, noting any assumptions made. However, we have felt obliged to make an exception in the case of small sites with 4 dwellings or fewer. Looking at these sites on an individual basis would have involved a disproportionate amount of work. So we have decided to assume that the percentage of dwellings that are deliverable on these sites will be similar to that for the larger sites that have been examined individually. 5. We have taken a conservative view of deliverability in the light of the current problems in the house building industry, which have lead to the delay or abandonment of sites. Our estimate for the proportion of the approved supply which will be deliverable in 5 years has therefore fallen from 77% in March 2007 to 67.2% in March 2010. 6. There is still a particular doubt about the current market for flats. So, again this year, a simplified approach has been adopted for many larger sites with permission for flat development. Depending on the size and location of the sites concerned, it has been assumed that the approved scheme will either be replaced by a lower density scheme with a higher proportion of houses, or that only 75% of the units are likely to be delivered within 5 years. This approach may not be accurate for individual sites. However, it should give a fair estimate overall, and avoids lengthy and quite possibly fruitless assessment of individual sites. 7. We continue to expect much lower levels of clearance in the next 5 years. Previous high levels of clearance have resulted from the regeneration of social housing in areas such as Hattersley, and clearance of unfit housing in Renewal Areas. We consider it unlikely that the government will be willing or able to fund clearance on this scale in the future, given the shortage of affordable housing and the necessity to reduce the public sector borrowing rate (PSBR). In the 12 years from 1986 to 1998, clearance averaged only 43 dwellings per year and our forecast of 70 per annum (from April 2010 onwards) could exceed what may actually occur. The summary table shows the supply on 31st March 2010, divided into 8 categories, starting with those already under construction and ending with an estimated figure for sites identified in our emerging Strategic Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA). Details of individual sites are shown in tables for the first 7 categories but not for sites in the SHLAA. Our main conclusions are as follows: 1. The estimated total number of dwellings on approved sites on 31st March 2010 was 5,905, of which 3,967 (67.2%) are considered deliverable. A further 302 dwellings are considered deliverable on sites with expired permission, or a pending or withdrawn planning application, giving an overall total of 4,269 deliverable dwellings. 2. The largest number of deliverable dwellings was on sites with full planning permission (1,481) and on remaining plots on sites already under construction (1,124). There were also 755 deliverable dwellings on sites with outline permission. Note that sites which the Council was minded to approve subject to a Section 106 agreement were also included amongst the sites with permission. 3. Setting aside previous underperformance, the estimated total supply of 4,269 deliverable dwellings is more than sufficient to meet the net requirement in RSS for 3,750 additional dwellings over the next 5 years. (The gross target is 4,100 including an allowance for clearance replacement of 70 dwellings per year.) N.B. See the Notes and Conclusions below the Summary Table for further explanation of our approach and how we have calculated our figures. Tameside MBC Housing Land Supply 31st March 2010: SUMMARY TABLE Estimated Number of Number of number of Table listing Category of Sites Total number of dwellings (net) dwellings as % Comments deliverable the Sites of total dwellings Generally speaking, sites that have started construction are thought likely to be completed in 5 years. However, work on some small sites started many years ago and it has been assumed that work is now likely to have finished, without all Sites under construction 31st March 2010: remaining the proposed dwellings being built. There are also 2 major schemes in Droylsden town centre, where work has been 1. 1217 1124 92.4% dwellings i.e. those under construction or not started suspended. In the case of the larger (Watkin Jones) site, it has been assumed 75% of remaining units are likely to be completed in 5 years. In the case of the smaller (Bellway Homes) Sapphire Point site, a revised scheme which substitutes 19 houses for 70 flats was approved on 8th March 2010 and this has since started. Large sites (5 dwellings plus) with full planning 2. permission or Council minded to grant full permission 1908 1481 77.6% subject to S106 agreement Individual sites in these categories have been assessed to determine whether they can be regarded as deliverable ie. Large sites (5 dwellings plus) with outline planning available, suitable and achievable, as defined in PPS3. See notes 2a, 2b and 2c for further explanation. 3. permission or Council minded to grant outline 1269 755 59.5% permission subject to S106 agreement Small sites (4 dwellings or fewer) with full planning 4. permission or Council minded to grant full permission 194 151 77.6% Individual sites in these categories have not been assessed to determine whether they are deliverable. It appears subject to S106 agreement reasonable to assume the percentage of dwellings on small sites, that are deliverable in 5 years, is likely to be similar to Small sites (4 dwellings or fewer) with outline planning that on large sites. 5. 36 21 59.5% permission Sites allocated for housing in UDP or identified for The main sites concerned are a UDP allocated site at Huddersfield Rd and the remainder of the Longlands Mill 6. housing in SPG for Hattersley and Mottram (that are 1281 435 34.0% development in Stalybridge, where outline permission has expired. not in any of the previous categories) 5905 3967 67.2% SUB-TOTALSOther sites - with expired planning permission, or 7. 1637 302 18.4% pending or withdrawn planning applications 7542 4269 56.6% SUB-TOTALS The SHLAA is awaiting formal approval. However, it appears reasonable and consistent with government advice, to take account of some significant brownfield sites that have been identified as suitable for development. In particular, some school sites are likely to be vacated in 2011 as part of the BSF (Building Schools for the Future) programme, with Emerging Strategic Housing Land Availability another school already vacant. The principle of residential development is likely to prove acceptable, at least for the site 8. Assessment SHLAA - selected significant sites 8400 840 10.0% of the buildings themselves. Development briefs have been prepared for most of the school sites because of their likely considered deliverable in 5 years, wholly or in part housing potential. In total there are estimated to be 8,400 dwelling plots on SHLAA sites. This figure includes poor quality employment sites and private sector submissions, but excludes the poorest class of sites (C), for which no estimates have been made. 15942 5109 32.0% TOTAL FIGURES Notes: 1. In producing this information, the Council has taken account of Government advice in PPS3: Housing with particular reference to paragraphs 7, 54 and 58.
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