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Towards Electrical Isolated Systems Based on 100% Renewables TOWARDS ELECTRICAL ISOLATED SYSTEMS BASED ON 100% RENEWABLES by Christian Wimmler Submitted to the PhD Program in Sustainable Energy Systems, Faculty of Engineering in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the University of Porto January 2016 © University of Porto 2016. All rights reserved. Dissertation Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Eduardo de Oliveira Fernandes Full Professor at the Department of Mechanical Engineering of the Faculty of Engineering – University of Porto Dissertation Co-supervisor: Prof. Dr. Carlos Coelho Leal Monteiro Moreira Full Professor at the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering of the Faculty of Engineering – University of Porto Dissertation Co-supervisor: Stephen R. Connors Director, Analysis Group for Regional Energy Alternatives, MIT Energy Initiative – Massachusetts Institute of Technology Resumo II Resumo I. Resumo O desenvolvimento socioeconómico e as mudanças climáticas constituem seguramente os dois maiores desafios das comunidades dispersas pelo Planeta em centenas de milhares de ilhas remotas. Para além dos custos adicionais no aprovisionamento de combustíveis, as ilhas distantes dos Continentes enfrentam crescentes restrições devidas aos constrangimentos da mudança climática que põem em causa a sua sobrevivência e da inacessibilidade das novas tecnologias que lhes permitam tirar partido dos recursos naturais locais de forma economicamente acessível. Mas se as energias renováveis representam definitivamente a solução, para além da inovação tecnológica, levantam-se problemas de planeamento e de identificação das verdadeiras necessidades tendo em conta modernos conceitos de suficiência energética e adequadas estratégias de eficiência desde a fonte de energia [1], nas redes e no uso daquela directamente ou convertida, nomeadamente, em electricidade. Num tal cenário, faz-se nesta tese uma abordagem metodológica de um caso que gradualmente pudesse levar à satisfação de todas as necessidades energéticas por electricidade 100% renovável. Após a pré-selecção das tecnologias adequadas aos recursos energéticos naturais disponíveis e a consideração das características locais, todas as potenciais tecnologias são sujeitas a um processo de decisão por análise multicritério. Os aspectos tecnológicos, económicos, ambientais e sociais são analisados para identificar quais as fontes de energia renovável e as tecnologias que são as mais adequadas ao caso. Dado que vários critérios são considerados, os responsáveis por tomadas de decisão podem escolher nomeadamente as alternativas de geração, ‘onshore’ e ‘offshore’. Com recurso a uma análise por séries temporais faz-se a comparação de custos entre os diversos cenários considerados para a electricidade incluindo o papel e o custo do armazenamento combinado com diferentes alternativas de geração. Para tal são utilizadas séries temporais horárias para um período de ciclo anual. São avaliadas, tento ainda em consideração, estratégias que reduzem o custo global do sistema, bem como considerações sobre a introdução de contribuição menores de combustíveis fósseis. Finalmente, procede-se a uma análise de sensibilidade. III Resumo No caso de estudo da ilha de S. Miguel, Açores, é prevista uma procura de electricidade com crescimento constante. Dois tipos de perfil de carga foram considerados: o perfil corrente e um alternativo com variações da carga do nível de ponta às do nível de ‘baixa’ com várias medidas de redução da carga. Para cada fonte de energia a ser explorada foi elaborada uma pré-selecção das tecnologias. Apesar da disponibilidade de algumas fontes, tendo em conta as suas localizações, a exploração de alguns recursos (vento ‘offshore’, marés, alguma ‘hydro’ e geotermia e muita da bioenergia) foi excluída da análise. Para as restantes tecnologias, a análise multicritério permitiu identificar a energia solar e a ‘hydro’ como as mais interessantes logo seguidas pelas eólica e geotermia. Através do recurso a um algoritmo de series temporais foram estudadas alternativas para um sistema eléctrico baseado em 100% de energias renováveis. Tal implicaria um armazenamento dimensionado com capacidade para garantir a procura com um ciclo anual, o qual seria sobredimensionado para muitos períodos do ano e, em todo o caso, muito caro, particularmente, no caso do uso dominante de renováveis intermitentes. De fato, no caso de S. Miguel a geotermia poderá assegurar a base do diagrama o que tornará a garantia de 100% mais barata com a instalação de menos renováveis de ciclo variável. Em todo o caso, é assumido, que garantir toda a electricidade com renováveis implica maiores custos. Na tentativa de reduzir o custo global do sistema foi considerada a hipótese de assegurar 5% da electricidade com origem em combustíveis fósseis o que, apesar de ser uma pequena percentagem se traduz em resultados expressivos. Isto mostra que os custos do sistema geral com recurso a renováveis poderão ser reduzidos substancialmente em relação ao sistema totalmente baseado nos combustíveis fósseis. Tal revelou-se ser o caso para S. Miguel. Em conclusão, o planeamento do uso de energias renováveis até ao limite de 100% aparece como um desafio maior devido aos custos do sistema produção/distribuição associado a um armazenamento economicamente insustentável. Contudo, com relativamente pequenas contribuições dos combustíveis fósseis é possível produzir soluções competitivas. Então, para além da judiciosa selecção das energias renováveis mais adequadas, não poderão fazer esquecer a relevância das estratégias de gestão da procura também pelo uso das energias renováveis. Tal ocorre já com sistemas renováveis isolados. IV Abstract II. Abstract Socio-economic development and climate change, independently of the order, are the two major challenges for the future of sparse communities living far from Continents in hundreds of thousands remote islands around the world. Beyond the enormous challenges given the additional costs of imported fuels, remote islands face the growing restrictions to their use due to climate change constrains and the still inaccessibility of some new technologies to take advantage locally of the natural energy resources in an economic affordable manner. Yet, renewable energy sources will represent definitely the solution to overcome these challenges. Besides the innovation in technologies, that requires communitarian management approaches such as: firstly, the appropriate fine tuning of the energy needs through planning and sufficiency strategies [1] and, secondly, the overall rational energy efficiency practice down the chain from the energy source to the energy service. In such scenario, a methodological approach to gradually cover all energy purposes that can be covered by electricity 100% renewable based is established. Energy demand scenarios considering future economic development, energy efficiency impact as well as demand side management strategies are assessed to build different scenarios under evaluation. Following the pre-selection of renewable energy technologies fitting the resource availability and local characteristics, all potentially viable technologies undergo multi-criteria decision analysis. Technical, economic, environmental and social aspects are analyzed to identify the renewable energy sources and technologies that are most suitable for a given case. Since several criteria are considered, decision makers have the flexibility to choose supply alternatives based on their preferences and priorities, including onshore and offshore technologies. By means of a time series algorithm a cost comparison across all scenarios is performed. The annual system costs of the selected supply technologies in combination with a storage system are investigated. For that purpose an hourly time series algorithm across the whole year is applied. The earlier defined demand over the year is now to be met with locally available renewable energy sources, so that the requirements of the storage system can be identified. Further assessments are then focused on strategies to reduce the overall system costs, whereas considerations to introduce minor contributions of fossil fuels are made. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed. V Abstract In the case of the island of São Miguel, Azores, a steady increase of electricity demand over time is foreseen. Two load profile types are conducted, one follows the current load profile and another is subject to load shifting measures. Several measures to shift parts of the load from peak to off-peak hours were introduced and the load shape was adjusted accordingly. In the technology pre-selection various technologies could be eliminated within each resource. Despite the resource availability, but given the regions site characteristics, some tidal energy, fixed offshore wind, most bioenergy as well as some hydro and geothermal energy technologies could be excluded from further analysis. For all remaining technologies the multi- criteria decision analysis identified solar and hydro as most favorable, followed by wind and geothermal. By means of the time series algorithm supply alternatives based on 100% RES were built. Thereby, the storage system must compensate the demand variations that occur over the year. Hence, it is dimensioned for a yearly cycle, which makes the storage very oversized and exorbitantly expensive. The storage system is particularly oversized if high shares of variable RES are included in the supply mix. If the resource availability allows, like in the case of São Miguel, higher
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