Waste. What Future Do We Want? for the NSW WASTE SECTOR

Waste. What future do we want? FOR THE NSW WASTE SECTOR

1 4 Executive Summary

7 Introduction

9 Methodology

12 Megatrends

15 Megashocks

20 Scenarios

50 Megatrend details

61 Summary

63 References

66 Appendices

About Foresight

Foresight is Arup’s internal think-tank and consultancy which focuses on the future of the built environment and society at large. We help organisations understand trends, explore new ideas, and radically rethink the future of their businesses. We developed the concept of ‘foresight by design’, which uses innovative design tools and techniques in order to bring new ideas to life, and to engage all stakeholders in meaningful conversations about change.

SHALISE LEESFIELD School student and EPA grant recipient © Shalise Leesfield This report was prepared by Arup for the NSW Environmental Protection Authority.

2 3 Scenarios Executiv e Summary Down in the dumps The opportunity to create change in the Battered by economic NSW waste industry has never been greater. shocks and policy Circular indecision, Australia’s belief Success in recycling has failed. Only high-value materials Circular economy thinking is are extracted for recycling embedded in every aspect of with the rest of the residual NSW commerce and daily life. waste being sent to landfill. Material prevention, reuse, Landfills fill up, waste recycling and separation has management is expensive, Public interest is high and there Five key themes emerged from The megashocks that were become business as usual. and health risks emerge. are many international case the megatrends review: considered to be prevalent for the Resources and investment are studies of countries creating NSW waste industry included: Convenience Lifestyles: Demographic flowing freely, and ‘waste’ is a new jobs and businesses, changes are shifting customer expectations • Critical infrastructure breakdown word of the past. improving waste management towards more convenient and digital solutions and reducing their impact on • Energy grid crisis with affluence increasing waste streams. Wasted the environment by adopting Road to • Large-scale data breach opportunity circular economy principles. Technological Evolutions: digital recovery adoption and renewable energy reshape • Pandemic – mad cow disease Strong markets and consistent The opportunity to embrace Although some pockets of excellence can be consumption and production and generate • Hazardous waste policy creates confidence the circular economy has found for waste initiatives in NSW, a clear new and emerging waste streams. been met with caution. • China Sword lifted within industry to invest in and ambitious strategy is required for NSW to Although the benefits Consumption and growth: the adoption waste management solutions. create change and embed circular economy A foresight analysis method known have been demonstrated of circular economy principles could High technology waste thinking throughout the waste industry. as the morphological box approach in other jurisdictions the lead to new jobs and markets; however sorting extracts most types of This report aims to answer the question. was used to develop a series of pace of change is slow, and legacy costs from existing landfill pose recyclable material and energy plausible and extreme scenarios. governments are reluctant a big risk to the waste industry. from waste facilities are used Waste. What future to reduce space in landfill. to push for major changes Scenarios do we want? Planetary health: resource use and in waste management ecosystem pollution have major effects on The scenarios provide potential stories of practices. A strategic foresight approach has planetary health, while climate change will the future and are used to assess risks Best been taken for assessing megatrends present huge risks for the waste industry. and implications for the 20-year waste intentions that are shaping the future of strategy. Although ‘circular success’ and Service the waste industry in NSW. Policy and regulation: Land use planning ‘down in the dumps’ represent best and High engagement sparks monopoly and clear policies and strategies can shape worst cases they are all representative of community concern which a better waste management system. current situations around the world. The drives widespread behaviour A service monopoly reigns other scenarios provide different ideas about change. Single-use plastic providing a data-driven how the waste industry might evolve. has been banned, and offering of all services Whereas megatrends are slow-moving communities sort and to customers: energy, large impact effects megashocks recycle their waste including water, transport, waste are less likely but high impact events organics. Unfortunately, management, food supply that also need to be considered. without the support of and other items. Efficiency coordinated infrastructure, and convenience are the impact is limited. high; however, risks of uncompetitive behaviour or cybersecurity need to be managed.

4 5 Introduction

NSW EPA in collaboration with Infrastructure NSW is exploring the foundation and opportunity of delivering a 20-year Waste and Resource Recovery Strategy for NSW.

It aims to create a smarter The strategy would lead the discussion, FORESIGHT STUDY THE CHALLENGE create the vision and implement the change To help inform a 20-year Waste and There has been no substantial change in future for NSW, one that and direction required to support a holistic Resource Recovery Strategy, Arup was landfill diversion rates in NSW over the last will support greater quality and sustainable resource recovery industry, commissioned by NSW EPA to explore the ten years, and waste volumes are increasing reduce waste to landfill for NSW, and future potential of the industry in NSW. This at a higher pace than population growth, of life for its citizens and enable waste management to be a real strategic foresight study identifies both global even despite NSW having the highest landfill prevent further degradation contributor to the State’s circular economy and local megatrends and megashocks levy of any State in Australia. Specifically, aspirations over the next 20-years. to develop a set of future scenarios. the waste sector in NSW currently faces to the environment. Implications of these scenarios are then challenges ranging from interstate waste assessed and recommendations provided. movements to public perception, restricted export markets and the threat of climate This study outlines six possible change effects on existing infrastructure. future scenarios.

It identifies both opportunities and THE OPPORTUNITY challenges for the waste sector. This transformational project has extraordinary potential for NSW EPA to This study should help drive the provide pioneering leadership to the waste development of a robust and innovative sector, not just in NSW but further afield. long-term waste strategy.

MEGASHOCK PLICATIONS & S & IM REC M OM EG M A EN T D R A E T N I D O S N S

Scenario testing Initial Horion scanning Key factors Implications and research and and trend research Proections policy review insights Expert engagement Scenario formulation for the waste sector

T N E PM LO ON VE PTI DE INCPE SCENARIOS Figure 1: Project phases.

6 7 Methodology

Arup has used a morphological box approach which is a structured process for scenario development.

Several possible projections for each key factor are then defined. A combination of projections is then used to create the basis for a scenario. Once several consistent scenarios are chosen, they are detailed in order to create a set of plausible and mutually exclusive stories that spark conversation about potential future pathways (Figure 1). For more information on the scenario development process see the Appendix.

MEGASHOCKS PROJECTIONS SCENARIOS AND MEGATRENDS DEVELOPMENT What influences the future What are plausible options How will the future of waste in NSW? for each key factor? develop?

KEY FACTOR SELECTION OF ANALYSIS DRAFT SCENARIOS What are the main What are consistent factors of influence? combinations of projections?

producer responsibility waste collection

impact awareness

electronic waste prevention informal collection urban leadership clothing l s ca oc sharing iti ia ol l p food surplus STRATEGY 1

resource depletion l e upcycling

n STRATEGY 2 n

e biological processing o

l m

emissions o

c waste-to-energy i

a v

n e industrial symbiosis STRATEGY 3 persistant pollutants planned obsolescence economic resource intensity circular economy personal excess

irresponsible disposal

legacy costs

green procurement pay-as-you-throw

Figure 2: Project delivery process.

8 9 Horizon scanning and megatrends

Horizon scanning is the systematic identification, analysis and communication of signals of change relevant to a specific focal area.

It is used to detect the trends and issues MEGATRENDS Arup’s global team has developed a A horizon scanning process shaping the future. A trend can be defined long-term evolutionary changes global set of trend cards highlighting was used to find the key as the tendency of a subject to move critical international trends in the waste in a specified direction over time. industry. These are known as the Drivers trends including a scan of Change cards and are categorised of the megatrends as well A horizon scanning process was used to using the STEEP (social, technological, find the key trends including a scan of the economic, environmental, political) as the weak signals. megatrends as well as the weak signals. FUTURE framework. These cards were used as the starting point for investigation and were Megatrends are long-term evolutionary CONTEXT used in a workshop with NSW EPA. developments or patterns of change that are far-reaching, sustained and Responses provided by NSW EPA helped relatively certain. They are not confined identify what they thought were the key to specific geographies or sectors. trends driving change in the NSW waste sector, as well as the relevant weak signals. Weak signals are instances indicative of a possible change in direction or emergent WEAK SIGNALS Desktop research covered a broad range trend. They can provide advanced emerging case studies and exemplars of reports as well as data sets from intelligence or ‘hints’ about potential future NSW. Interviews with waste experts Figure 3: The future context can be trends. New emergent technologies are as well as discussion and synthesis of understood through the identification of often classed as weak signals as they might themes and ideas assisted in developing megatrends and weak signals. scale and influence a range of trends, even the 20 top megatrends (Figure 3). while their true potential and impact remain highly uncertain. These weak signals are presented as case studies in this report.

producer responsibility political uncertainty waste collection

land use conflicts

impact awareness

governance electronic waste demographic changes informal collection environmental policy prevention affluence urban leadership clothing c tion onve consumer awareness ula nien l s eg ce a oc sharing r li ic ia nd fe lit l a s y ty digital lifestyles o c le p food surplus li s o p

environmental resilience t e Workshops c h alternate energy sources

t n

resource depletion l e upcycling

h o t

a l l

h g

n Literature review

c h

biological processing a o

y waste technology

m e

o extreme weather

emissions t v

Interviews o

o l n

i u

c waste-to-energy l t i

p o

v smart infrastructure n

l n s

e industrial symbiosis Consultation co h persistant pollutants resource depletion nsu wt automation and AI planned obsolescence Synthesising mptio nd gro economic n a circular economy

resource intensity globalised waste trade circular economy personal excess ecosystem pollution

irresponsible disposal

legacy costs

legacy costs evolving industries

green procurement pay-as-you-throw 10 Figure 4: Megatrend identification process. Drivers of change trends on the left. Finalised set of trends on the right. 11 Sally Flannery © Sally

Megatrends

CONVENIENCE LIFESTYLES CONSUMPTION AND GROWTH weather events, we need to adapt to Population growth and demographic Adoption of circular economy principles and our changing environmental contexts changes are shifting customer expectations uncertainty of globalised trade is shaping the and needs to supply for future economic and consumer patterns. The dominance way future waste infrastructure is developed growth and waste generation. of millennials and digital natives over the and operated on a system-wide scale. Legacy next 20-years, as well as the exponentially costs from mismanaged landfill, especially POLICY AND REGULATION growing digital world, will see opportunities in the context of more extreme weather Land use designations and building SALLY FLANNERY, Artist, Northern Rivers NSW to engage with customers on waste issues. are of increasing concern. Meanwhile, design regulations limit the efficiency and Increasing population and affluence can evolving industries such as ag tech and connectivity of waste infrastructure and increase household waste generation, renewables can make significant changes are based on the perception of waste as an especially food, textile and electronic wastes. to the generation of different waste types. essential service. Environmental policy is driven by global commitments on climate TECHNOLOGICAL EVOLUTIONS PLANETARY HEALTH change, and plastic waste will force a change Technology advances bring great potential Issues relating to ecosystem pollution, in waste management and consumption as well as significant challenges. Trends of resource depletion and overall planetary of resources. On the other hand, political accelerating digital adoption and renewable health are becoming more evident. The uncertainty and lack of leadership reduces energy transitions are reshaping many way we dispose of our waste and the confidence in investment decisions and aspects of consumption and production value we place on natural resources is impacts the necessary action on big issues. and generating new and emerging waste set to shift as we start to recognise the streams. At the same time, technological consequences of consumption. As climate advances in tracking, sorting and change causes more frequent and severe processing materials create opportunities For the details on the p50

to capture greater value from waste. political uncertainty megatrends see page

land use conflicts

governance demographic changes environmental policy affluence c tion onve consumer awareness ula nien g ce re l d ife an s y ty digital lifestyles c le li s o p

environmental resilience t e

c h alternate energy sources

h o

l l

c h

y waste technology

extreme weather a t

e o

l n

a l

o smart infrastructure n

c on th automation and AI resource depletion sum row ption and g

circular economy

globalised waste trade

ecosystem pollution

legacy costs

evolving industries

Figure 5: Final set of megatrends. Twenty in total under five categories. SENSITIVE: NSW Government 12 13 Megashocks

When we look at trends or “A megashock is a major and sudden hard-to-predict event megatrends, we explore that causes far-reaching change to an industry sector, what is already happening social group or geographic region.” [1] and then use these to

ideate about what we When we look at trends or megatrends, we One obvious example of a shock that To scan the spectrum of shocks we have would expect to happen. explore what is already happening and then has created significant disruption in used the Arup-designed ‘Drivers of Change’ use these to ideate about what we would the waste management industry is STEEP framework. This is not an exhaustive expect to happen. This is an important part China’s National Sword policy. Whilst list but rather a range of potential options. of foresight as long-term thinking helps us there were some early warning signs, prepare for and drive a preferred future. notably with the 2013 policy ‘Operation Green Fence’ the impact on the We have identified six megashocks Shocks or disruptions are much harder to recycling market across Australia and that are relevant to the foresee and can have a much greater impact indeed globally, has been fundamental. NSW waste sector, including: on change. Megashocks are events that However, an analysis of the plastics are considered highly unlikely (until they recycling industry should have identified • Critical infrastructure breakdown happen) and have a very high impact – the heavy dependency on overseas usually on more than one area, geography facilities and might have helped develop • Energy grid crisis or industry. Considering the less likely is local markets for such a disruption. • Large-scale data breach very important when preparing for the future and preparing for these impacts can make Interestingly, some things that traditionally • Pandemic – mad cow disease the system more robust and resilient. would have been classified as shocks, • Hazardous waste such as extreme weather, are becoming considerably more frequent and are now • China Sword lifted considered to be high likelihood and therefore classed as trends. On some occasions, however, an extreme weather Accompanying each megashock description event might have an unpredictable knock- are supporting examples and trends that on effect of causing an unlikely event and demonstrate that these types of shocks therefore be considered as a shock. can occur, even if at smaller scales.

These megashocks will form part of the If smaller scale events can occur in one scenarios development process as they location, while unlikely, it is possible are used to stress-test the scenarios that these types of events can occur and ideate around how resilient the simultaneously in different locations, scenario would be to the effect of the resulting in far-reaching consequences. shock. The outcome of this process is used to assess implications and provide recommendations to inform the strategy.

An assessment of megashocks can help ensure that actions taken are suitable to deal with the potential consequences and that the scale of action is proportional. 14 15 Megashocks

Megashocks

CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE ENERGY GRID CRISIS LARGE-SCALE DATA BREACH PANDEMIC – MAD COW DISEASE HAZARDOUS WASTE CHINA SWORD LIFTED BREAKDOWN It’s January 2035 and weather records In consultation about the 20-year waste NSW is brought to a standstill when eight A discovery is made that the combination of The China Sword policy created havoc in On the 8th March 2029, a magnitude have been smashed with the hottest strategy in NSW, the importance of good, cases of mad-cow disease are identified a metal and chemical that is intermittently Australia with major disruption to recycling seven earthquake hits south of Sydney month ever in Sydney. With maximum reliable and accurate data is highlighted across several locations. This disease found in electronic products is highly toxic management. Many centres were unable causing significant infrastructure damage. temperatures exceeding 40°C most days as key to truly understanding the waste spreads quickly through livestock, and and potentially combustible. Several items to economically manage recyclables which Aging infrastructure has had minimal and minimums regularly above 30°C air industry. This leads to the development of suspected cases in humans are identified. containing each of these products are saw some recycling being diverted directly maintenance over its life, and the long-term conditioners are running round the clock. a comprehensive data strategy. Complex The only way to deal with the problem is to regularly disposed of each year. The details to landfill. To deal with this disruption, effects of climate change such as frequent The aging fossil fuel energy infrastructure sensors and data systems are installed to act quickly. The affected areas are isolated, of where these products go when disposed government incentivised industry with its storms, floods and high temperatures have is struggling to meet demands. Solar and track and monitor multiple waste streams, and large quantities of cattle are slaughtered. of, is limited. Some products have gone to $47 million support package funded by left many pieces of infrastructure very distributed battery storage is approaching transfers and treatments. Sensors and The NSW waste industry is unable to cope landfill in Australia. Some of these landfills the ‘Waste Less Recycle More’ initiative vulnerable to damage. The earthquake 20% of the state’s generation capacity, but devices allow the system to optimise with the volume of slaughtered animals, are well managed, but there is little known [9]. This restored faith with customers and causes significant damage to the train the distribution network is poorly adapted increasingly complex logistics networks, and the transport of the carcases is a about how the distribution of the hazardous they continued to sort their recycling and line which is used to transport waste to take advantage of the shift. Damage to meet increasingly detailed regulatory huge strain on the transport network. materials and the risk is too high to leave urban industries were set up and increased from Sydney to the Woodlawn landfill. distribution infrastructure caused by extreme reporting requirements and incentivise in place. Some of this waste has been the demand for recyclate. The regional weather initiates cascading failures within better waste separation by customers. Fear spreads across the consumer recycled as e-waste, and the location of recycling industry worked well for a number Earthquake damage throughout Sydney is the grid, leaving millions of people without market. Vegetarianism and veganism components has been dispersed. To make of years until China revokes its restrictions widespread creating significant quantities of power, sometimes for days at a time. A cyber hacker manages to break into become increasingly popular, and thus matters worse, large quantities of this waste on the import of contaminated recycling. waste. Sydney needs to divert not only the the waste system. Customer data is fruit and vegetable supply is unable to has been exported to countries with varied They offer a good price for recycling driving usual 750,000 tonnes per annum of waste Waste collection is operated entirely by compromised, shaking public confidence meet demand. Increased awareness levels of regulation for dumping sites and export of curbside collected recycling. to Woodlawn landfill but also the additional electric vehicles, and intermittent electricity in the system. A separate attack targets of diet and the environment results in the movement trail practically untraceable. This devastates the local industries by waste caused by the earthquake. The is affecting the frequency of waste collection. automated sensing and tracking functions increased local farming and composting. removing feedstock for recycling plants train line is compromised in multiple ways Overflowing waste bins combined with through a vulnerability in internet-connected Supporting motivation and results in limited recyclate to feed and the time required to get it operational extreme temperatures are causing health sensors, causing widespread disruption Supporting motivation Up until the mid-1980s, asbestos was a into the new urban industrial processes. again will be many months, if not longer. impacts. In some instances, residents of waste collection and processing. Mad cow disease appeared in the cheap, versatile insulating material, and have started illegally dumping their waste UK in the late 1980s. By the early was widely used in Australian homes Supporting motivation Supporting motivation in communal bins and underutilised areas Supporting motivation 1990s, links to the deadly disease in and buildings. However, links were In 2013, China heavily enforced a policy which is further exacerbating the issue. In 1989, thirteen people died after an Cyber-attacks ranked in the five most humans were confirmed. By the time discovered between asbestos exposure called Green Fence which restricted earthquake struck Newcastle, with likely risks to global stability for the the epidemic ended, 100,000 cases Supporting motivation and life-threatening illness. By the late imports of the types of plastic waste it the epicentre less than 15km from second year in a row, according to the were confirmed in cattle, and 4.4 1980s, some removal programs had would accept. The aim was to reduce the CBD. The modest magnitude 5.6 In 2003, extreme heat caused a high- World Economic Forum’s 2019 global million animals had been slaughtered begun, and in 2003, Australia finally contamination. Prior to the restrictions quake caught the city unprepared, voltage transmission line in Ohio to sag risk report [3]. In 2018, major data to halt the spread of disease. [5] banned all asbestos use. The hazardous around a third of the European Union’s, causing widespread damage. Over 300 and touch nearby tree branches. This breaches targeted personal information, waste legacy continues, requiring ongoing and half of America’s plastic waste, was In NSW 50,000 chickens were culled to buildings were demolished. Australia’s initial fault was followed by a series of affecting 1.5 million records in the education, training, removal services going to China. After around a year prevent the spread of bird flu at an egg strongest recorded earthquake occurred equipment failures, leading to emergency Singapore Government’s health database and disposal regulations to protect after this was being heavily enforced, farm in the Lower Hunter Region. [6] in Tennant Creek in 1988, and was one shutdown of the electricity grid across and 30 million Facebook users. [4] An human health [7]. More recently, PFAS this was relaxed sending meaning that thousand times stronger, damaging the 8 states. Over 50 million people were increasing focus on personalised services substances are emerging as a persistent, exports were increased again. This hospital and a natural gas pipeline. [2] without power for over 24 hours, with and customer-centric business models is bioaccumulating and potentially devasted local recycling industries that thousands evacuating Manhattan on foot exposing more industries to these attacks. dangerous legacy of past chemical use. has been set up to combat the ban. as transport infrastructure shut down. The ‘Australian Inventory of Chemical In 2016, South Australia experienced Substances’ records that in 2018, a state-wide blackout during severe 61.4% of chemicals in Australia have storms. Damaged transmission lines not yet been assessed by the ‘National and sudden withdrawal of generation Industrial Chemical Assessment and capacity caused instability and cascading Notification Scheme’ for their risks to 16 failure of the electricity grid. the environment or human health. [8] 17 Scenario development starts with an analysis of the factors driving change.

18 19 Scenarios

Key factors are defined as the driving forces and critical uncertainties that will shape the future of the defined context.

A set of five key factors were identified as being the most likely to influence the future state of the NSW waste sector over the next 20-years. The scenarios below provide a range of for the development of each key factor. plausible alternatives on what our world The projections are based on two variables axis might look like in the decades to come. While that define each key factor. These variables Consumer patterns defines the convenience of waste separation in the the core of each scenario is different, they can be represented on two axes (see right), share some common assumptions about the where each quadrant represents a projection. Proection Proection Consumer patterns scenario, as well as how engaged consumers and the community are with waste issues. Consumer engagement covers the willingness to adopt waste future state of the world. These so-called The morphological box (below) attaches reduction behaviours and adoption of sharing economy platforms. ‘givens’ provide the framework on which the axis differences between the various scenarios the four possible projections for each key are based. Such ‘givens’ can be a useful tool factor and gives a visual representation of the variations in scenario characteristics. Infrastructure planning considers the social licence to operate for waste infrastructure to reduce complexity and to underline that scenarios do not assume major wild cards Proection Proection Infrastructure planning relevant to recognition of waste as an essential service and land use conflicts. Scenarios are constructed from the such as a world war or a global pandemic. It also considers the level of connectivity for waste transport and material flows. morphological box by selecting unique Projections online potential changes over combinations of projections to represent time and describe the plausible alternatives the range of possible outcome. Environmental risk explores the uncertainty of the extent and impacts of extreme Figure 6: Key factors axes and projection quadrants. Environmental risk weather and legacy waste on both the environment and human health. It also defines the preparedness and resilience to deal with these risks for each scenario. Consumer Infrastructure Environmental Market Leadership Patterns planning risks forces and policy Market forces define economic factors that influence profitability and attractiveness Market forces of resource recovery. It explores the value of resources with high resource value an indicator of increased resource recovery. Market dynamism refers to Low connectivity, Low engagement, Low risk, High Low resource value, Adaptive policy, how changes in supply and demand impact stability of the waste market. High social license High convenience preparedness High market dynamism High policy certainty to operate

Leadership and policy consider the differences in industry led versus High connectivity, High engagement, High risk, High resource value, Prescriptive policy, Leadership and policy government led waste project developments. It also considers how ambitious, High social license High convenience High preparedness High market dynamism High policy certainty aligned and stable the waste policies are in the future scenario. to operate

High connectivity, High engagement, High risk, High resource value, Prescriptive policy, Low social license Low convenience Low preparedness Low market dynamism Low policy certainty to operate

Low connectivity, Low engagement, Low risk, Low resource value, Adaptive policy, Low social license Low convenience Low preparedness Low market dynamism Low policy certainty to operate

Figure 7: Final morphological box with five key factors and four projections per key factor. 20 21 Scenarios

Waste hierarchy Scenarios

The waste hierarchy provides an order of preference for waste and resource management approaches.

For this exercise, we have used the waste hierarchy adopted in the Each scenario is accompanied by a waste hierarchy to visually represent Circular economy thinking is embedded in every aspect of NSW commerce NSW EPA WARR Strategy 2014-2021. At the top of the hierarchy is the reliance of approach within the scenario. Scenarios that adopt Circular Success and daily life. Material prevention, reuse, recycling and separation has the most preferred option, avoidance and reduction of waste, and approaches higher up the hierarchy have better resource management become business as usual. Resources and investment are flowing freely, at the bottom is the least preferred option, disposing to landfill. outcomes and are closer to adopting a circular economy model. and ‘waste’ is a word of the past.

Avoid and Avoidreduce and reduce Battered by economic shocks and policy indecision, Australia’s belief in This refers to avoidingThis refers or reducing to avoiding the generation or reducing of the generation of Down in the dumps recycling has failed. Only high value materials are extracted for recycling waste through unnecessarywaste through consumption. unnecessary This consumption. can mean encouraging This can mean positive encouraging positive behaviours such asbehaviours avoiding suchdisposable as avoiding single-use disposable items; single-use strategies items;to avoid strategies to avoid with the rest of the residual waste being sent to landfill. Landfills fill up, wasting food; buyingwasting products food; withbuying less products packaging with or less selection packaging of products or selection of products waste management is expensive, and health risks emerge. that are recycled,that recyclable, are recycled, repairable, recyclable, reusable repairable, or biodegradable. reusable or biodegradable.

Reuse Reuse When waste cannotWhen be wasteavoided, cannot the next be avoided,best thing the is nextto allow best it thing to be is reused. to allow it to be reused. Road to recovery Strong markets and consistent policy creates confidence within industry Reuse refers to productsReuse refers or materials to products that canor materials be reused that without can be additional reused without additional to invest in waste management solutions. High technology waste sorting processing and limitsprocessing energy and and limits other energyresources and required other resources for a resource required to for a resource to extracts most types of recyclable material and energy from waste facilities be used again. Productbe used donations again. Product or product donations leasing or for product household leasing and for household and industrial items areindustrial examples items of reuseare examples strategies. of reuse strategies. are used to reduce space in landfill.

Recycling Recycling Recycling retains Recyclingmaterials retainsin the econom materialsy, reducing in the econom the needy, reducing for more the virgin need for more virgin The opportunity to embrace the circular economy has been met with materials and wastematerials absorption and wasteby the absorption environment. by the As wellenvironment. as recycling As well as recycling Wasted opportunity metals, cardboard,metals, glass cardboard,and plastics, glass it also and includes plastics, recycling it also includes nutrients recycling back nutrients back caution. Although the benefits have been demonstrated in other jurisdictions into the soil throughinto composting. the soil through composting. the pace of change is slow and governments are reluctant to push for major changes in waste management practices. Recover energyRecover energy Where materials cannotWhere materialsbe easily recoveredcannot be foreasily recycling, recovered energy for recycling,recovery isenergy recovery is the next preferredthe option. next preferred This involves option. using This residual involves wastes using as residual a feedstock wastes as a feedstock High engagement sparks community concern which drives widespread for Energy from Wastefor Energy plants, from generating Waste plants, heat and generating energy toheat be andfed backenergy into to be fed back into Best intentions behaviour change. Single use plastic has been banned, and communities the economy. the economy. sort and recycle their waste including organics. Unfortunately, without Treat Treat the support of coordinated infrastructure, the impact is limited. Some materials cannotSome materialsbe fed back cannot into thebe fedeconomy back into and the may economy warrant and may warrant Scenarios that adopt treatment for themtreatment to be disposed for them of to safel be y.disposedThis can of involve safely. chemicalThis can involve chemical < approaches lower on the processing to stabiliseprocessing them toand stabilise minimise them impacts and minimise on environmental impacts on or environmental or human health. Thishuman often health. includes This hazardous often includes wastes. hazardous wastes. hierarchy are not extracting A service monopoly reigns providing a data driven offering of all services to the most out of resources, Service monopoly customers: energy, water, transport, waste management, food supply and Dispose Dispose with large volumes of other items. Efficiency and convenience are high; however, risks of Dispose is the leastDispose preferred is the option least andpreferred contributes option to and landfill. contributes Where toresidual landfill. Where residual waste going to energy uncompetitive behaviour or cyber security need to be managed. wastes are not recoveredwastes are for notenerg recoveredy, the only for option energ y,is theto dispose only option of. is to dispose of. recovery or landfill.

22 23 Scenarios

Circular success

Circular economy thinking is embedded in every aspect of NSW commerce and daily life. Material prevention, reuse, recycling and separation has become business as usual. Resources and investment are flowing freely, and ‘waste’ is a word of the past.

In 2020 the NSW waste strategy provides Consumer Infrastructure Environmental Market Leadership KEY FACTORS patterns planning risk forces and policy clear guidance and assurance for the waste

avoid & reduce industry. In addition, the government embeds the circular economy model across all sectors to influence the whole supply chain. reuse High engagement, High connectivity, Low risk, High High resource value, Adaptive policy low, A WILLING COMMUNITY High convenience High social licence preparedness Low market dynamism High policy certainty High-profile champions and a new popular to operate recycling media series spark shock and outrage and create a strong desire for change. It is an opportune time to show leadership as waste Single use plastics RISKS IMPLICATIONS issues gain momentum in the public sphere. In this high functioning circular economy This scenario is aspirational and demonstrates how adaptive but certain policy can drive a move recover energy recover are eliminated and < scenario risks can occur when balanced towards a circular economy. Key implications on the 20 year waste strategy are as follows: Residents diligently separate organic waste the sharing economy, materials flows are disrupted for example: which is collected and processed at large product stewardship treat • Waste generation decreases across all streams because central biogas and composting facilities. and good recycling 1. Residents becoming complacent of this scenario and recovery rates increase. Backed by community support, the NSW practices drive a highly causing increased contamination in government moves to ban single-use circular economy. recycling and compost collections. • The competitiveness of the waste market is increased as there is less waste dispose plastics as well as introduce increased produced. Waste management organisations diversify into supply chain logistics. 2. Disaster waste created by extreme landfill levies and a larger suite of landfill weather events cannot be recycled • Consumers are more considerate about producing waste and purchasing behaviours bans to encourage materials to be recovered. and puts unexpected pressure demand products that are aligned with circular economy principles. on the few remaining landfills. • Technology and innovation advance to be able to recover and recycle SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS CASE TAPPING INTO A RESOURCE The increased value of resources means 3. Automated waste system more products and reduce waste in all areas. Innovative ideas are used to Resource values are high and global trade Many regions can see an opportunity to take businesses begin to profit from buying, at risk of cyber attack monitor material and resource flows to match supply and demand. is restricted, driving a strong market for advantage of the growth in manufacturing selling and using recovered resources and resource recovery from landfill. As customer to attract new businesses and industries increasingly complex logistics systems • Regulation and compliance will be required for hazardous waste streams. expectations around sustainability continue which will accept recovered resources. develop. Traditional waste management Increased recovery results in material by-products being considered as valuable companies diversify services to offer on- resources rather than waste. This reduces the amount of regulation required. to grow, businesses see an ethical branding TIMELINE opportunity to participate in product Landfill restrictions and cost of resources demand transport of specific materials. take-back schemes. Products delivered to drive the construction industry to a more Despite innovations in automated vehicles Single use plastics ban Blockchain technology improves Complex waste logistics circular model. Blockchain material and logistic data analytics, transport consumers are more durable, reusable and introduced due to public waste material tracking systems are developed passports, as well as the internet repairable and are returnable at end of life. infrastructure is under increasing pressure, demand of things, enable real-time material and well-connected precincts become There is a proliferation of online platforms registers for managing repurposed sought-after as resource-recovery 2019 2029 2039 to support sharing of household items. materials. Standardisation of parts hubs. Landfill mining robots become Additionally, larger companies provide and design for disassembly all become a competitive commercial operation, Sharing schemes for household Many businesses reach goal of Landfill mining becomes subscription models for leasing and repair standard practice in the industry. recovering now-scarce metals. items and utility subscription becoming 100% circular commercially competitive of larger household items. Initial uptake models emerge 24 is high and people soon form new habits. 25 Circular success

Scenarios

Circular success Case studies

ZERO WASTE SCOTLAND Their work is contributing to CIRCULAR FLANDERS Flanders is one of the best examples NETHERLANDS These goals include:

© Zero Waste Scotland Waste © Zero these Scottish Government / OVAM Flanders © Circular of embedding the circular economy by A government-wide programme for the 1. Raw materials in existing supply chains targets and impacts: acknowledging the need to decouple circular economy in the Netherlands to be utilised in a high-quality manner. their prosperity and wellbeing from is targeting 2050 for full adoption. • Recycling 70% of all waste by 2025 resource use. They prioritise the design 2. In cases where raw materials are of products and services being waste- This vision is to be realised with a range • Reducing waste by 15% by 2025 needed, fossil-based, critical and free and then also consider repairing, of stakeholders – ranging from local non-sustainably produced raw • Reducing food waste by 33% by 2025 reusing and recycling with very minimal governments to social partners and materials are to be replaced by amounts of material being sent to landfill. citizens – targeting an interim objective • Meeting 50% of energy heat demand sustainably produced, renewable, and of reducing primary raw material for renewables by 2032 generally available raw materials. The initial estimates for Flanders of the consumption by 50% by 2030. • Energy efficiency as a national economic benefit of the circular economy, 3. Products and materials will be designed infrastructure priority report the creation of 27,000 jobs and It is believed that a circular economy in such a way that they can be reused a saving in material cost of up to 3.5% will be a necessity in the Netherlands • Reducing Scotland’s greenhouse gas with a minimum loss of value and of GDP. [12] It was also concluded that due to the congruence of three emissions by 66% by 2032 without harmful emissions entering more than 2/3rds of the gross domestic developments towards 2050: explosive the environment. They will also The organisation has led the way in energy production in Flanders was demand for materials, dependency on promote new consumption habits. Zero Waste Scotland are an helping Scotland embrace the potential attributable to materials management other countries, and interconnectivity organisation working to create a of a more circular economy. As part of with the climate (CO Emissions). meaning that the circular economy also 2 As these goals are achieved, the society where resources are valued, a greater collective with the Scottish contributed substantially to Flander’s way material streams are used and and nothing is wasted. In their transition to a circular economy, Government and other agencies, the The Circular Flanders Initiative is a or Belgium’s climate objectives. [12] organised in the Netherlands economy organisation helped Scotland be named a partnership of governments, they have set strategic goals that will Their mission is to enable change from will radically change over time. [13] leading nation driving a circular economy companies, civil society and the Circular Flanders is one of seven priorities transform the way they use raw materials. gathering evidence and informing policy, to in the annual Circulars Awards at the community that takes collective action in the government’s 2050 vision. Key to Currently the Netherlands landfills 2-3% motivating behaviour change in individuals World Economic Forum in 2017. to help Flanders, a region in north its approach are three pillars which bridge of its waste every year. Essentially only and organisations through their programmes. Belgium, create a circular economy. and bring together different sectors: wastes for which no recycling or incineration Their work has contributed to annual savings Some of their other option exist, are landfilled. A landfill tax was of 990,000 tonnes of carbon emissions. A team within OVAM (Public Waste 1. Encouraging circular purchasing key achievements include: introduced in 1996 and gradually increased Agency of Flanders) leads this initiative Some of their programmes include: 2. The development of Reburg, a virtual until it was abolished in 2012. This tax Reducing household food waste by and ensures that all partners are doing circular city that illustrates circular ideas played a very important role in achieving 7% between 2011 and 2015 and their part to achieve their circular vision. • Food waste reduction methods saving the low landfill rates the Netherlands supporting local authorities so they now 3. Advice on running a circular business [3] £92 million provide food waste recycling services Seventeen partners across public and private has today. It was considered no longer For more information see: necessary when landfill rates fell so low. • The first UK announced drinks packaging to 80% of Scottish households. sectors are working under this initiative in six core activities. These activities include https://vlaanderen-circulair.be/en/about-us return scheme Some small amounts of waste will continue to Supporting the implementation of the 5p networking with future partners, conducting • Using Black Soldier Fly farming to turn require landfill into the future, only if chosen carrier bag charge which saw distribution research/knowledge sharing, aligning with organics into feedstock for food systems as a sink for hazardous substances. [14] of single-use bags fall by 80% in the first policy, innovation, laboratory research and including salmon full year it came into effect (Zero Waste embedding principles of best practice. [11] • Materials brockage services Scotland Limited, 2019).[10] 26 27 Scenarios

Down in the dumps

Battered by economic shocks and policy indecision, Australia’s belief in recycling has failed. Only high-value materials are extracted for recycling with the rest of the residual waste being sent to landfill. Landfills fill up, waste management is expensive, and health risks emerge.

The efforts of NSW to strengthen the Consumer Infrastructure Environmental Market Leadership KEY FACTORS patterns planning risk forces and policy domestic recycling industry were slow, and another round of waste restriction from avoid & reduce importing countries throws the sector back into turmoil. The community sentiments on reuse the value of recycling have diminished. Low engagement, Low connectivity, High risk, Low resource value, Prescriptive policy, Although many councils continue to collect Low convenience Low social licence Low preparedness High market dynamism Low policy certainty the bins, recycling rates have fallen, and to operate contamination rates are high. Recyclers recycling focus on easy to extract, higher-value materials for export, such as metals. RISKS IMPLICATIONS The residual stream is sent to landfill. The high reliance on landfill in this scenario This scenario demonstrates an outcome that is to be avoided. Although it may seem extreme, there recover energy recover Waste is destined for leaves NSW open to many significant risks are many places in the world where a similar story is a reality. The 20 year waste strategy has the < including: potential to provide strong leadership for the NSW waste strategy in order to avoid these effects: LOSS OF CONFIDENCE landfill and only products with high material treat Policy uncertainty and diminishing financial 1. Vulnerability to waste system transport • Waste generation increases, and recycling and recovery rates significantly decline. value, such as precious incentives in waste infrastructure lowers removal disruptions. • Investment in the waste market concentrates on the expansion of landfill disposal as the industry confidence. Additionally, continued metals, are recycled. 2. Legacy issues, with insufficient funds for cheapest waste management solution. competition from imported virgin materials dispose the ongoing management and remediation limits the value of recovered materials. • Consumers are disengaged and don’t promote a reduction in waste. They also do not focus on of landfills which are affected by High rates of resource recovery are not growth and are transitioning towards higher- and increasing transport cost increases sorting and recycling resulting in increased contamination rates. increasingly severe weather events. economically viable. With no drive for density living. Some councils have ceased bills for households andDown businesses. in the dumps • Reliance on transport to mega landfills promotes some innovation in transport systems. Health recycling, industry pursues the cheapest recycling services in the face of mounting 3. Reliance on landfill results in restricted risks start to drive innovation in hazardous waste treatment. option for disposing of waste and develops costs. Councils lobby for a reduction in the EXTREME WEATHER export markets for recovered material. landfill levy, arguing that it has become an new landfills in decommissioned mines. NSW is experiencing the long-term • Regulation and compliance are concentrated on mega landfills and monitoring of wastes that inequitable tax, and is no longer driving new 4. Potential health risks could emerge if toxic effects of climate change, with increasing could pose health risks. A high-profile biosecurity breach at one resource recovery developments. In 2030, substances have been sent to landfill. severity of extreme weather events. Australian organics recycling facility lowers the landfill levy is repealed for municipal, Flooding and fire damage to urban areas confidence in the safety of compost. The commercial and industrial waste. This becomes more frequent, generating agricultural market cannot accept the risks of results in interstate waste into NSW and TIMELINE significant volumes of disaster waste. using recycled organics and stick to synthetic increased rogue operators contributing fertilizers. Most existing organics services Meanwhile, new research identifies Western Parkland boom Biosecurity breach at an Public and media attention Faced with limited capacity to process or and high population organics recycling facility focuses on human health in regional areas continue to operate, significant health risks linked to a common dispose of waste, councils accept transport density in Paramatta lowers consumer confidence concerns but no new Food Organics and Garden building material used in most modern multi- options to access mega-landfills located in Organics (FOGO) facilities are developed. storey buildings. During natural disasters, 2019 2029 2039 rural NSW. These facilities are increasingly volunteers are potentially exposed to the remote from population centres, serving new threat. Human health has become a Transport is established to rural Costs of recycling services NSW is entirely reliant on A STEP BACKWARDS large populations from multiple council focus of media and government, and the mega waste infrastructure are deemed un-viable in waste exports and landfill Regional satellite centres have continued areas. The strong reliance on transport to experience above-average population fate of waste fades from the public agenda. some regions and waste 28 networks also creates vulnerabilities collection ceases. 29 Down in the dumps

Scenarios

Down in the dumps Case studies

NEW YORK NYC is part of a complex ecosystem of In 2014, over US$330 million was spent waste. For most of its inhabitants, the waste exporting NYC waste to other states New York City system works almost invisibly with mixed landfills or waste to energy facilities. It is (NYC) generates waste put to the roadside and disappearing estimated that the NYC waste system the next day. Behind the scenes, waste generates 1.66 million metric tons of around 14 million systems function through a variety of greenhouse gas emissions per year or tonnes of waste stakeholders both public and private. the equivalent of almost 200 million gallons of gasoline consumed [15]. every year. The waste itself follows a long journey before reaching its destination. Community schemes are successful in Almost all of NYC with initiatives such as community It generally follows this process: this waste ends composting [16]. About 70% of all waste 1. Waste collection at the is handled by four of the city’s community up in landfills, roadside by trucks. districts. Due to the waste system being incinerators reliant on trucks for collection and 2. Transfer stations where the waste export, these districts suffer from high or in recycling is sorted and put in containers levels of noise and air pollution [15]. for long distance transport. facilities in other NYC has also had to deal with other types cities, states 3. The destination being landfill, of waste. For example, the World Trade incineration or recycling Center Health Registry estimates that and countries. depending on the waste type around 410,000 people were exposed to and levels of contamination. asbestos and other toxins after the 9/11 Waste responsibility is shared. The city terrorist attack due to hazardous products oversees collection from residencies in the building rubble. 1.5 million tons of and institutions, while the private sector debris was removed from the site [17]. handles all commercial, construction and demolition waste. Most transfer stations, recycling facilities, landfills and incinerators are privately-owned and operated, or publicly owned but privately operated.

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S cenarios

Road to recovery

Strong markets and consistent policy creates confidence within industry to invest in waste management solutions. High technology waste sorting extracts most types of recyclable material and energy from waste facilities are used to reduce space in landfill.

In 2020 the NSW waste strategy provided Consumer Infrastructure Environmental Market Leadership KEY FACTORS patterns planning risk forces and policy clear guidance and assurance for the

avoid & reduce waste industry. A minimal but clear policy approach set a baseline for industry to lead NSW towards a more effective reuse and prosperous resource recovery. High engagement, Low connectivity, Low risk, High resource value, Adaptive policy, Low convenience High social licence Low preparedness Low market dynamism High policy certainty THE NEED FOR CHANGE to operate recycling China’s import restrictions are followed by several rounds of increasingly strict RISKS IMPLICATIONS restrictions imposed by other importing When the industry drives waste This scenario shows how a less prescriptive policy direction can be used to create countries. Trade restrictions increase

recover energy recover A waste management management potential risks include: positive outcomes. The implications for the 20 year waste strategy include: the value of resource recovery; however, < system that is industry the circular economy concepts remain driven and includes 1. Stranded infrastructure through • An integrated strategy through all layers of the waste management treat restricted to the waste industry. reuse of building poor planning, i.e. energy process will increase waste diversion from landfill. from waste facilities High policy certainty from the government material and energy from • Investment in recycling and energy from waste infrastructure is competitive. waste technology. 2. Social inequality with investment encourages investment in waste • Consumers are engaged and sort recycling better when suitable infrastructure is available. dispose infrastructure. Industry seeks to capitalise concentrated in high-density on the favourable conditions by formulating areas where the returns • Advances in ways of driving recycling are a focus for technological initiatives. market-led proposals. This creates a for industry are higher Better sorting facilities and more comprehensive collection schemes with large diversity of technologies, including safeguards against contamination streams emerge it this scenario. Meanwhile, facilities for energy from to transport routes isRoad increasingly to recovery important, 3. Running out of food grade plastics a mix of mature and innovative options. waste (EfW) for mixed residual waste and and new facilities rely on economies of through inability to recycle • Policy has provided certainty in order to promote investment; however, it A high number of industry players creates refuse-derived fuel (RDF) are developed. scale to create a viable business model. and restricted global trade has not been prescriptive in the ways that targets must be achieved. This a competitive market for materials and Low-grade mixed plastics and paper that has promoted innovative approaches to waste management. feedstock driving up the rate of recycling were previously exported are accepted at Transport and connectivity are increasingly • Government and industry need to work together with appropriate energy recovery and RDF facilities. Industry easy and cost-effective, with innovations in incentives to promote further innovation. DIVERSITY OF SOLUTIONS proponents advocate strongly for energy automated vehicles increasing efficiency. TIMELINE Improvements in optical sorting, data from waste as a reliable, on-shore solution Electric vehicles and charging infrastructure to conserve landfill space. Increasing energy develop and become cost-competitive analytics and artificial intelligence are Government policy sets Optical sorting boosts Efficient waste to energy plants used to extract useful materials from the and gas prices prompt industries with high with internal combustion vehicles in line with other populous conurbations baseline for industry the recovery of high have been developed to address commingled recycling stream. Driven heat demands to advocate for EfW plants. leadership value materials the issues of mixed waste by high community engagement and such as Los Angeles. The boom in electric vehicles results in an increase of 2019 2029 2039 crowdfunding, new technologies also TRANSPORT EFFICIENCIES address waste in the natural environment. lithium-ion battery waste generation. Infrastructure planning identifies and protects Plastic is harvested from the oceans to Private industry invests heavily Floating devices capture EV Autonomous transport land for new waste infrastructure, preventing assist in reducing environmental pollution. into energy from waste ocean plastics which are networks overtake internal conflict with urban developments. Access This product is sought after as one of then processed into road combustion transport 32 the components used in road base. construction material. 33 Road to recovery SScenarios

Road to recovery Case studies © Filipe Garcia © Filipe IKEA is focused © IKEA on developing a circular supply chain for all of their materials and products. Another key focus is to prolong the life of products and materials.

CIRCULAR IKEA such as the protective film that covers otherwise gone to landfill. Through a TEXTILE RECYCLING IKEA products, have been repurposed to partnership with Soft Landings, 75% of the The Ellen Macarthur Foundation is It has a vision to be 100% circular by 2030, and hopes to achieve it across four stages: IKEA is leading the industry charge to create products like their TOMAT spray used mattress components are recyclable. collaborating with the global fashion embrace the circular economy. Many bottle. Leftover materials from their bed Steel springs are turned into products like STAGE A focuses on circular design. This involves transforming their entire design process into a giant H&M, in an effort to make the of their leftover products and materials linen production have been transformed roof sheeting. Husk makes great weed circular system for any resources they use. fashion industry 100% circular. from manufacturing are repurposed into their TÅNUM rug product. [18] matting and mulch. Timber is turned into STAGE B will make H&M 100% circular in its selection and use of materials. This involves reaching to create brand new products. kindling, mulch and animal bedding. Foam H&M has over 3600 stores and retails online IKEA Tempe recently launched a furniture targets of 100% recycled or sustainably sourced materials by 2030, using 100% is recycled into carpet underlay. [19] in 23 countries. The aim is to instil circular Roughly 25 half-litre plastic bottles are takeback service that encourages its sustainable cotton, full traceability for animal-derived materials, and sourcing from economy principles across the organisation. used to create their matte black finish customers to recycle IKEA goods rather IKEA is exploring what its business could responsible farms. on their KUNGSBACKA kitchen fronts. than throw them away. Customers bring in look like in the service economy. In an effort There are three key focus areas: STAGE C will make the H&M production process 100% circular. This will be achieved by reaching their unwanted furniture in exchange for an to make the IKEA business more circular IKEA is focused on developing a circular zero discharged hazardous chemicals in any production process. It will involve managing IKEA voucher which can be spent instore. and to compete with the low prices of Exploring solutions to create a closed supply chain for all of their materials and water responsibility across the value chain including water-efficient equipment in all homewares from China, globally, they are loop for textiles, where unwanted clothes products. Another key focus is to prolong operations by 2030. 91% of IKEA customers wanted to use developing a furniture rental system where can be recycled into new ones. the life of products and materials. Take the take-back system for their products, products can be leased for a period of time. the new sofa VIMLE for example. It’s built Applying circularity to its sustainability targets. STAGE D will target the prolonged lifespan of their products. This will be achieved by encouraging and 69% were interested in learning These items are then sent back to IKEA, on a standard sofa platform where parts consumers to prolong the life of their products, use materials from collected garments in how to upcycle their old furniture. refurbished and rented to another customer can be exchanged and upgraded over Development of sustainable production, increase their volumes of collected garments and have local recycling extending the product’s lifecycle. [20] time – it’s the sofa that grows with you. IKEA in Australia also has a takeback / circular stores. [21] systems for 100% of their stores. [22] service for mattresses where in 2017 it For more information, please contact Products typically considered waste, recycled 1700 mattress that would have [email protected] 34 35 Scenarios

Wasted opportunity

The opportunity to embrace the circular economy has been met with caution. Although the benefits have been demonstrated in other jurisdictions the pace of change is slow, and governments are reluctant to push for major changes in waste management practices.

NSW has been slow to take action on Consumer Infrastructure Environmental Market Leadership KEY FACTORS patterns planning risk forces and policy opportunities to embrace circular thinking

avoid & reduce and good waste management. Although public interest is high and companies and the community are interested in reuse doing the right thing, there is no firm High engagement, Low connectivity, High risk, High resource Prescriptive policy, policy guidance to provide market Low convenience Low social licence Low preparedness value, Low market Low policy certainty certainty and drive improvements. to operate dynamism recycling

MORE OF THE SAME RISKS IMPLICATIONS Construction and demolition (C&D) In this business as usual More of the same scenario that follows the trajectory that NSW is currently on. Key waste from large scale infrastructure

recover energy recover A waste management scenario risks include: considerations for the 20 year waste strategy based on this scenario are as follows: projects continues to increase resulting < process system where in overall increases in waste. 1. Legacy costs of existing landfills • Waste quantities are increasing with diversion rates also increasing but not in line with targets. some players avoid, treat are not suitably funded. The China Sword Policy did not spark any reduce and recycle • There is some competitiveness in the market however dominated by a few key major developments in the domestic recycling but most opportunities 2. Missed opportunities in reducing market players. Investment is limited due to lack of policy certainty. are missed. resource use and unnecessarily market. Stockpiling is an issue, and it is not • Consumers are interested; however, there is some lack of trust in the dispose using virgin resources. uncommon that recycling gets sent to landfill. system due to the negative impacts of export restrictions. The container deposit scheme has been of e-waste. There are some efforts have seen examples where the business • Pockets of technology and innovation exist with incremental steps being a success and collects many streams to sort and recover this waste. case is strong and acted on this. Local taken to improve waste management processes, but opportunities to of recycled products; however, this also suppliers have been slower to adapt and embrace the circular economy to its full potential are not taken. means that the contamination rates in Commercial and industrial waste continues due to little regulation to require levels of • Clear policy direction on waste avoidance, energy from waste and strategic co-mingled recycling by percentage has to increase although targeted programs recycled content. Recyclate is not cost planning across government is required to promote investment. increased. This, in turn, decreases the such as Bin Trim continue to encourage competitive without other incentives. quantities that are accepted internationally. avoidance and improve waste diversion. Advanced sorting technology and improved Alternatives to single-use plastics Landfills continue to fill up and be resource separation both play a role in TIMELINE continue to increase, mostly due expensive to manage. Transport to remote improving material quality helping to meet to international leadership. landfills also adds to costs. The availability importers expectations. Industry pursues Waste programs continue Waste from the booming renewable Virgin resources become of virgin materials is decreasing, and to divert waste however energy sector increases scarce and expensive Red bin residual waste continues to potentially lucrative opportunities: e-waste the associated costs are high, but the totals continue to rise have a high percentage of material recycling aligned to advanced manufacturing opportunity for a smooth transition to that could be diverted including and the booming renewable energy and 2019 2029 2039 a circular economy has been lost. organics and dry recyclables. storage sector; chemical recycling of plastics and rubber to create high-value Some companies create High levels of recycling are Landfill operation costs are Hazardous waste continues to often POCKETS OF ENTHUSIASM export products; and development and innovative technologies to sent to landfill due to more than allocated funding be disposed of as general waste and International companies have led the charge proprietary implementation of new waste reduce waste contamination levels 36 increases with increasing quantities with goals to become 100% circular. They sorting and recovery processes. 37 Finding our niche

Scenarios

Wasted opportunity Case studies

RECLAIM PV WEF: A NEW CIRCULAR VISION FOR ELECTRONICS WORLD’S FIRST E-WASTE MICRO-FACTORY LAUNCHED AT UNSW An Australian solar panel Green Fund © Rwanda Centre SMaRT Sydney, © UNSW recycling company ‘Reclaim’ was established in 2014.

This business operates across Australia and the wider Oceania region. It provides a It can turn photovoltaic (PV) take back and reclaiming scheme through local collection points with many types of the goal of delivering a viable and streamlined consumer waste system to enable the reuse and recycling of PV components. The business was founded such as glass, by the directors of S.M.A.R.T Pty Ltd, who plastic and timber recognised the waste management challenge that the PV industry is facing. Working into commercial with a team at Flinders University in South materials Australia, they are developing best practice recycling of PV modules and reclamation. and products. The World Economic Forum released The publication concludes that while e-waste In the face of Australia and the world’s and used takeaway coffee cups. The panels A defined course of action is now underway their report ‘A New Circular Vision is emerging as one of the world’s largest rising waste crisis, UNSW Sydney’s that form the top of the table are the latest to provide dedicated solutions for PV for Electronics’ in January 2019. waste challenges, it also presents itself as Centre for Sustainable Materials created by the SMaRT team after developing recycling in Australia. Reclaim aim to an opportunity for a reboot of the electronics Research and Technology (SMaRT) has flat panel building products made from provide easy access for module drop-off It highlighted the issue of e-waste on a system and to close the loop on e-waste. It launched the first e-waste micro-factory materials such as clothing, glass, plastics and collection, with hopes to use existing global scale and included contributions by emphasises that this publication is just the capable of reforming the valuable and other waste materials, sometimes business networks offering collection industry experts from around the globe. start, and that collaboration between industry materials contained in electronic waste using a combination of these. The various systems that cover all of Australia. The report identified key trends in e-waste leaders to form a circular economy is the next otherwise headed landfill, incinerators panels can have a variety of applications in Reclaim has developed a unique process that will drive the way we respond to this issue stage. It is highlighted that the transition to a and overseas for unknown disposal. relation to thermal and acoustic properties, circular economy must take place in a way that while research continues on developing of reclaiming efficient cells from damaged in the future. The total volume of e-waste The micro-recycling technology processes benefits all stakeholders from the consumer structural panels for walls, flooring and solar modules. By removing the good cells, is expected to surpass 52 million tonnes by items such as printers, smartphones and to workers, government, businesses, even for ceramic-style benchtops. they can reduce the amount of energy 2021. By 2040, the emissions caused in laptops into valuable materials for re-use needed to effectively recycle solar cells and the production of electronics will amount to entrepreneurs and society at large. such as metal alloys and plastic filament for SMaRT continues to develop its e-waste repurpose working cells into new products. 14% of total emissions. Many other insights There will be a need for mass collaboration, 3D printing. The factory was launched at the micro-recycling technology and other are detailed, including the flows of e-waste system-changing ideas, new policy SMaRT Centre laboratories by former NSW waste reformation techniques through Reclaim is working closely with Australian throughout their lifecycle and a proposal for frameworks and new ways of doing business. Minister for the Environment Gabriel Upton. its microfactory concept which aims to government agencies, PV manufacturers what the circular system for e-waste may The organisations involved in this work have a treat waste as a renewable resource and private sector consultants. They look like. This includes the use of scrap from The microfactory technology is also being shared commitment to achieve this and invite to prevent it being dumped in landfill, are developing infrastructure for manufacture, the life extension of electronic used to develop new products from common others to join in this important endeavour. [24] burnt or shipped overseas. [25] the future of recycling and waste products and a transformation of disposed waste materials, such as new coffee tables 38 management in the PV industry. [23] e-waste into the creation of new products. developed from recycled coffee grounds 39 Scenarios

Good intentions

High engagement sparks community concern which drives widespread behaviour change. Single use plastic has been banned, and communities sort and recycle their waste including organics. Unfortunately, without the support of coordinated infrastructure, the impact is limited.

Popular media continues to highlight emotive Consumer Infrastructure Environmental Market Leadership KEY FACTORS patterns planning risk forces and policy waste issues including the environmental

avoid & reduce impact of ocean plastic and health risks to developing communities from mismanagement of exported recyclables. reuse High engagement, Low connectivity, High risk, Low resource value, Prescriptive policy, CHANGING THE PROBLEM Low convenience High social licence High preparedness Low market dynamism Low policy certainty Increasing public engagement has supported to operate recycling government action to phase out problem wastes including some types of plastic RISKS IMPLICATIONS and single-use plastic products. The When waste management is led Community schemes can have a great impact on waste management; federal commitment to 100% reusable, recover energy recover The community take by the community regulation must however, it must be supported by infrastructure in order to be successful. recyclable or compostable packing by < the lead on waste protect NSW from risks such as: The implications for the 20-year waste strategy include: 2025 was also enthusiastically supported. management with easy treat Common product alternatives include 1. Fire hazards or chemical leaching • Waste generation rates see marginal decreases. Recovery rates see a to recycle products bio-based compostable plastics, durable risk due to stockpiling of textile considerable increase primarily due to the increased recovery of organics. and composting. plant-fibre materials and cardboard lined and electronic wastes gathered • Costs are increasing with no incentives for investment resulting in uncompetitive markets. with compostable waterproof linings. • Communities are taking ownership of their waste streams dispose 2. Biosecurity risk from agricultural and being very engaged with the process. Many communities, particularly those in pests or pathogens spread • Opportunities for compostable packaging alternatives to increase in metropolitan areas, do not have access Best intentions through poor quality control organics collection. Most opt for open common but is not accessible for large order to decrease contamination in organic waste collections. to the commercial composting facilities of recovered organics windrow composting technology to minimise portions of the metropolitan population. • A range of adaptable composting technologies and organic treatment emerge. needed to break down the new materials. infrastructure investment costs. Some A prescriptive unambitious policy limits 3. Poor quality control in small scale • Ensuring that land use planning includes adequate space for waste management Most are non-recyclable and ultimately towns implement a ‘precinct waste hub’ innovation in the waste industry. Similarly, modular organics processing collection and processing for new developments is required. decompose in landfill. Consumers find it model for organics processing, bringing low policy certainty creates low investment systems leading to a distribution of • Regulation and compliance will have to adapt to meet the need for a large range of difficult to distinguish between recyclable together organic waste from households, confidence translates to no large scale chemical contaminants to land collection and treatment facilities including how to utilise the end products. plastics and compostable plastic-substitutes large businesses, food manufacturing and centralised recycling and organics and inadvertently contaminate recycling sewage treatment work to create scale processing facilities. Increasing transport streams. Additional investment in sorting for anaerobic digestion infrastructure. costs to distribute the recovered product TIMELINE technologies is needed to cope with discourage the creation of new organics the issue. Recovering materials within Consumer concern also increases reuse processing facilities. Other waste streams 100% reusable, recyclable Organics recycling booms in rural Small scale organics recycling or compostable packaging regions of NSW with the introduction initiatives are launched Australia is expensive, and most are still and repair of household items, creating rely on global markets for recycling which of precinct waste hubs exported with very little transparency. a modest reduction in waste generation threatens the continuation of kerbside per capita. Online platforms support recycling. As the recycling markets adjust, 2019 2029 2039 sharing, leasing and repair services COMMUNITY SOLUTIONS consumers accept the resulting cost for items which would once have been There is growing evidence of soil health increases that flow onto them. There are, Advanced robotics sorting Sharing economy thrives as Reliance on landfill increases as considered cheap household necessities. benefits from recycled organic products. growing concerns from the public that the capabilities are introduced due to consumer trend to repair organics recycling capabilities Regional areas take advantage of greater cost increases are not sustainable and large quantities of mixed waste household items emerges are limited in high density areas 40 access to land, agricultural buyers and LIMITED IMPACTS Australian markets should be developed. 41 predominantly detached housing to pursue Small-scale organics processing becomes Best intentions

Scenarios

Good intentions Case studies

It has a ‘circular Shimazu © Yuki A place to dispose Rose © Hary shop’ where of food waste, and people can donate grow local crops. an unwanted item in exchange for something free – an alternative to disposing of what they no longer need.

KAMIKATSU JAPANESE VILLAGE Prior to this, the town dealt with their town, which incentivises the practice. MANDALAY TECHNOLOGIES It functions as both a place to dispose of economies, supplying the community with waste by incinerating it and through a Kamikatsu also has a ‘circular shop’ food waste and grow local crops. The farm locally grown produce, waste collection Since the implementation of a rigorous recycling program intended to where people can donate an unwanted 96 Bangalow is a regenerative provides the benefit of composting and services, employment and education. strict, town-wide, recycling regime distance it from such environmentally- item in exchange for something free – an farm located in the Northern local production and it plans to accelerate in 2003, residents of Kamikatsu harmful methods. They moved instead alternative to disposing of what they no Rivers region of NSW. its circular economy approach using To support its expansion, 96 Bangalow have been sorting their rubbish towards zero-waste status. longer need. In addition to this, the town data from Mandalay technologies. has been working with software specialists into 34 specific categories and is home to a factory where local women Mandalay Technologies to start collecting taking them to be recycled. Residents must clean waste and sort it work to make products out of waste items Growing food and keeping it within a and analysing its business intelligence. according to detailed categories such – for example, soft toys out of kimonos, reduced radius has numerous benefits, It will help them better monitor local as steel cans, aluminium cans, flyers, or clothes upcycled from festival flags. from reduced greenhouse gas emissions business behaviours, about what waste cartons and newspapers, before taking associated with fewer automobiles will be created and where so that they can it to the town’s sorting facility. Here, Kamikatsu currently sends only 20% of transporting the goods, to supporting local convert more into compost. This is what workers check the items are sorted its waste to landfill, recycling 80%. They industries. This method of production and allows the circular economy to take effect. correctly to ensure successful recycling. aim to be 100% zero waste by 2020. consumption is one of its guiding aims. Other global examples have a similar http://wastemanagementreview.com.au/ Other initiatives and features throughout aim – San Diego intending to achieve a The mission is to develop a space that helps paddock-plate-mandalay-technologies/ the town help to normalise the zero-waste waste-free status by 2040 for example. create a healthy lifestyle through regenerative attitude. Businesses implement the recycling The success of Kamikatsu provides a land use and sustainable processes. regulations, and signs on the sorting bins useful model going forward for towns and It aims to create zero emissions while inform people what their waste will be cities striving to become zero waste. [26} supporting ecological values and sustainable recycled into and how this will benefit the 42 43 Scenarios

Service monopoly

A service monopoly reigns providing a data driven offering of all services to customers: energy, water, transport, waste management, food supply and other items. Efficiency and convenience is high; however, risks of uncompetitive behaviour, or cyber security need to be managed.

In 2022, realising the potential to provide a Consumer Infrastructure Environmental Market Leadership KEY FACTORS patterns planning risk forces and policy range of services, Global Mega Corp start

avoid & reduce to offer cheap Global Mega Corp ‘home’ devices, other sensors and free installation in smart homes. These sensors initially reuse monitor energy and water, allowing things to Low engagement, Low connectivity, High risk, Low resource value, Adaptive policy, be turned on and off using voice commands. High convenience Low social licence Low preparedness High market dynamism Low policy certainty to operate recycling COMBINED SERVICES An in-depth understanding of customer RISKS IMPLICATIONS resources allows Global Mega Corp A monopoly player could control the In this scenario, the monopoly player controls many services. Although this to provide a combined service for all A monopoly player

recover energy recover market with no competition. This could is not the case at the moment, there are a number of big players in the living needs. People essentially pay a < makes the waste lead to practices and risks including: industry. The implications for the 20 year waste strategy include: monthly subscription which covers all management system treat their basic living requirements. They efficient but vulnerable 1. Cybersecurity risks due to a high • Waste generation rates remain stable; however, recycling rates increase due to can choose their level of service based to uncompetitive technology-controlled environment. advanced collection and sorting techniques. Landfill rates consequently decline. on their income and requirements. behaviour. 2. New transport modes such as • The is low market competitiveness in this scenario. In areas where commercial dispose Global Mega Corp optimises all resource use drone technology could create new viability is low, some small players still exist. Government must maintain control and recovery with their digital twin model of issues such as acoustic issues. of some assets so that uncompetitive behaviour is not permitted. all resource flows. Customers have minimal Service monopoly 3. Personal privacy breaches are a big • Consumers are complacent; however, sharing of their usage data awareness of what happens to their waste; concern where all data is tracked. and allows the service monopoly to better target recycling. however, systems are so advanced that up DIGITAL AGE TARGETING ALL WASTE STREAMS to 100% of all waste is reused, repurposed With the introduction of 5G and an increase Renewable energy is commercially driven 4. The power of government • This scenario is high in technology and innovation. It monitors resource or recycled and very little goes to landfill. in functionality, smart devices become and now supplies almost all of the electricity diminished as the monopoly has use allowing detailed management of waste streams. great influence on people’s lives. increasingly popular. Smart fridges know in NSW. Energy storage includes both • Government needs to introduce new data regulations against anti-competitive Combining the water and wastewater what items they contain and when to lithium and hydrogen batteries. Electric behaviour such as price fixing and protection of personal data. services allows for combined anaerobic reorder. This happens automatically, vehicles are dominant for local trips digestion facilities. Additionally, a single triggering automated packaging at the with hydrogen a key fuel type for longer TIMELINE service provider also allows optimisation warehouse and drone delivery to the home. journeys, freight, ferries and trains. Smart Homes are becoming Digital twin models for resource Privacy concerns are raised due to the of the energy, water and waste networks common across NSW. These flows are established, optimising lack of engagement and transparency using customer demand data analytics. Millennials and digital natives have High-density areas collect all organic waste homes monitor the generation resource use and recovery from Global Mega Corp accepted their data being collected and from homes through a combination of This provides opportunities to reduce of waste materials. peak demand through feedback controls. are happy for this to be used to increase underground automated waste collection 2019 2029 2039 The establishment of good data protocols convenience in their time poor, fast paced systems and autonomous vehicles. and mandating the collection of detailed lives. However, access and use of personal This is transported to composting facilities Global Mega Corp announces its The first giga utility nexus is NSW has become reliant on smart data back in 2020 has meant that data comes some concerns about their to create high nutrient soils and used expansion into smart utilities established, led by Global infrastructure with little awareness repurposing and recycling of these products privacy, ethics and cyber security. by smart agricultural systems owned and offers bundled services Mega Corp of how their waste is managed has become a lucrative business. and operated by Global Mega Corp. across NSW 44 45 Service monopoly

Scenarios

Service monopoly Case studies

Biopolus’ vision is to develop a ENERGY RECOVERY DIGITIZATION WATER FACTORY network of ENERGY vibrant and aesthetically WATER W

A S pleasing T D E O FO community DESIGN & ARCHITECTURE EDUCATION / R&D hubs.

BIOPOLUS COMMUNITY OPEN CITIES Biopolus, a company in Hungary, A new class of buildings will house these standalone or in a network, are modular, The Open Cities Association The association works with government is engineering urban ecosystems hubs for urban circularity. Through smart, platform based, and therefore extendable represent infrastructure and service and industry to modernise and rethink to close water, energy, food, and functional engineering and design, Biopolus in both capacity and functionality. The providers, cities and urban design policy, legislation, regulation and price waste loops through a network of has created the BioMakery, a biofactory for core function of each hub is to convert advocates working together to settings to enable next-generation local decentralized urban metabolic hubs. the future city. It uses biological engineering organic waste and wastewater streams into transition Australian communities utility and mobility services and solutions. to harness clean water, energy, nutrients, valuable resources, by passing through to a more sustainable, resilient and minerals from wastewater and organic multiple bio-reactors, designed and operated The aim is to help create infrastructure and affordable energy, water, waste. Supplemental modules for community using predictive software algorithms. and services that are innovative, digital and mobility future. functions and urban farming can also be sustainable, cheaper and decarbonise added to create an open and integrated Biopolus’ vision is to develop a network the economy. They collect evidence and space for sustainable urban living. of vibrant and aesthetically pleasing insight from their members to influence community hubs. The desired effect of governments on policy and deploy best- The BioMakery was developed based this will be to shift public perception of practice products and projects. on the principle of water-based urban wastewater treatment plants away from circularity, where energy, food and waste ‘no go zones’ to energetic innovation hubs, For more information see: systems are built around a regenerative and creating facilities that are an attractive https://www.opencities.net.au/ sustainable water cycle. Hubs can operate and integral part of the city fabric. [27]

46 47 “I want to engage people to protect

MICHELLE DADO-MILLYNN, Dungog 49

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For the introduction p12 to megatrends see

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES Increased waste generation is a product of While three-quarters of Australians know economic development and the resulting that their mobile phones can be recycled 2800 Oldest generation (pre-1924) Generation X (1965-1981) affluence. Prosperity and the resulting War on waste series release and reused, only 8% act on this. [47] 2600 Silent generation (1925-1945) Millennials (1982-2000) Baby boomers (1946-1964) Digital natives (2001-2020) availability of products and services 2400 Australians are relying on devices for Post DNs (2021-2040) contribute to increasing municipal solid 2200 waste. [35] Economic growth is also linked everyday activities such as entertainment 2000 to growth in construction and demolition banking and purchasing good and 1800 and commercial and industrial wastes. [36] services. [48] Mobile devices are also 1600 augmenting our social experiences and 1400 While the average household earning is just influence where people choose to live. 1200 under $110,000 per annum, the top 20%

Projected population (,000) 1000 Coupled with increased consumer of households earn more than twice this 800 engagement, digital technologies can place (exceeding $260,000). [37] The increasing April April April April 600 proportion of highly affluent households is consumers at the centre of service delivery 400 to meet customer expectations. [49] With impacting Australia’s waste generation. With Figure 10: Google searches for plastic waste in AUS. [41] 200 an increase of affluence comes the increased more ways for waste services to engage with 0 the public, this opens behaviours change affordability of time saving and convenience In Australia, the ABC series ‘The War on 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 DIGITAL LIFESTYLES opportunities. products and services. These products Waste’ shone a spotlight on the waste Figure 8: Projected generational population growth. [28] often come at the cost of greater waste industry resulting in a massive spike in generated, particularly single use plastics. The NSW population is projected to reach Millennials will represent the largest consumer awareness. Reusable coffee cup One-half Impact on 20-year company ‘KeepCup’, saw an increase in of all over 9.9 million people by 2036. NSW generation over the next 40 years. While currently representing a small Waste Strategy: is expected to experience 2.79 million Shifts in generation proportion impacts sales enquiries of 690% after the airing of an e-waste is proportion of waste volumes, E-waste • As the population grows, the waste births with 1.45 million deaths. Overseas waste generation due to differences in episode that highlighted that 1 billion coffee personal is currently one of the fastest-growing strategy must consider the pockets migration is projected to bring in 1.74 attitudes and lifestyles. For example, cups were sent to landfill each year. [42] devices waste streams in Australia as a result of growth across the state with million people, while interstate migration millennials are shown generate more of increasing affluence. [38] In 2018, The NSW Waste Avoidance and Resource an adaptive approach that fits a will result in a decrease of 370,000. [29] food waste than older generations. Australian households threw away 3.1 Recovery Strategy acknowledge education diversity of household patterns. million tonnes of food annually. This is Compared to a global average of 13% of the to encourage behaviour change, and expected to grow with rising sales of • New construction for the growing global population over the age of 60 in 2017, AFFLUENCE audits of bins with the encouragement groceries, driven by affluence. [39] population should be guided with best Australia is on the high end of the global of ethical behaviour and education about Figure 11: Personal device e-waste. [45] practice waste strategies to minimise ageing trend with 15.7% of Australians over Australian bad behaviour being shown to be effective C&D waste, encouraging modular and in reducing contamination in bins. Digital technologies continue to increase 60. [30] The aging population will increase households CONSUMER AWARENESS reusable designs were possible. demand for in structure and resources globally and are driving some of the most spend Recent studies have found 90% of needed to deliver health service. [31] High profile waste issues – in particular, significant changes in Australia today. The • The strategy could consider ongoing Australians are concerned with environmental the ocean plastics crisis – have way we use and integrate digital technologies public engagement to shift waste sustainability. [43] With greater awareness Household sizes in Australia are projected 22k-3k captured public attention, sparking into our lives impacts consumers, behaviours with an appreciation comes greater care in avoiding waste [36] to decrease by 2036. Couples with children outrage and calls for action. Respected businesses and the broader economy. of generational differences in food waste but also increasing pressure on the waste will continue to be the dominant dwelling public figures have taken up the issue, attitudes towards waste. type, expected to contribute 30.3% in sector to meet customer expectations. The average Australian home has 13.7 most notably David Attenborough with • As digital technology is embedded 2041. Lone single person dwellings will digital devices. This is projected to increase his Blue Planet II documentary. In 2018, when Ipswich City Council into the everyday, there are more be the next most common, overtaking to an average of 30.7 digital devices by announced that kerbside recycling from opportunities to engage with couple-only dwellings in 2026. [29]. An Figure 9: AUS household food waste. [33} Simultaneously, the Ellen Macarthur 2021, which would constitute an overall 200,000 residents would be sent to landfill, the public and promote sharing increase in smaller households will require Foundation capture government and growth of 124% over just four years. [46] this caused a significant public backlash. [44] platforms to encourage reuse. different waste management strategies It is projected that the ‘global middle-class’ industry attention with their ambitious This is impacting Australia’s e-waste for maximising resource recovery. [32] will increase from 1.8 billion in 2009 to 4.9 ‘New Plastics Economy’ report, calling for generation, which is currently growing up • As affluence increases, there must be billion by 2030. The bulk of this growth the world to radically rethink plastics use, to three times faster than general waste. suitable policies in place to decouple will come in the Asia Pacific, with the starting with plastic packaging. [40] wealth and waste generation, such region projected to represent 66% of the Further projections suggest e-waste will as eliminating planned obsolescence global middle-class population and 59% of grow to approximately 281,000 tonnes in common household items. middle-class consumption by 2030. [34] in 2035, a growth of 87% since 2018. 50 51

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Convenience Technological Consumption Planetary Policy and lifestyles evolutions and growth health regulation

ALTERNATE ENERGY SOURCES WASTE TECHNOLOGY SMART INFRASTRUCTURE One example of a more connected waste The top occupations in the waste sector Impact on system is Automated waste collection are truck drivers, factory process workers, 20-year Waste Strategy US millions systems (AWCS), that replace waste vehicles recycling collectors and plant operators, • As the renewable energy market grows, . NSW with underground pipes, creating a cleaner most of which fall into the two sectors. [60] . there is an opportunity to recover high- urban landscape and more accessible . value resources from the emerging waste − collection of organic, dry recycling and To date, waste recycling has remained . streams while reducing waste to landfill. residual waste. The first Australian AWCS dependent on people controlling . inputs, making decisions and directly • Innovative or new waste management − . project is currently underway in Queensland’s Generation mix participating in the production process solutions to suit different scales, Black coal Utility Solar . Maroochydore CBD development. Gas/liquid/biomass DER (rooftop PV – na through manual sorting. This has been geographies and waste types Hydro and battery) . Wind Utility storage due to the inherent and unpredictable should be supported by policy. Figure 13: Percentage of incinerated . AUTOMATION AND Figure 12: Projected energy generation nature of waste streams. [61] municipal waste. [53] ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE • The strategy should consider changes in NSW. [50] The Max-AI system from Bulk Handling opportunities for smart infrastructure North America Europe Latin America Centralised resource recovery infrastructure In 2017, global industrial robot sales Systems is one of the emerging innovations solutions where sensors and data Uptake of renewable energy generation and Asia Pacific Middle East and Africa has already adopted automated technology increased by 18% to about 346,800 units. that is automating the sector. This machine create new efficiencies in operation, battery storage systems is accelerating and to minimise costs and protect workers From 2018 to 2020 it is projected that this is capable of using computer vision to reporting and payments. will create a large and challenging waste from contaminated waste. Optical sorting Figure 14: Global smart cities investments. [54] will increase by a further 15% on average identify waste items and sort these to • As automation continues to disrupt stream as components reach end of life. The technology is used to identify different per year. [57] In NSW, the cost of computers the same standard as a human. [61] The industries and replace manual tasks, the Australian Energy Market Operator Integrated types of materials, using data from multiple Smart City technologies control and optimise and robotics have decreased, reflected by the waste sector benefits significantly from strategy should look for opportunities System Plan predicts that by 2040, more material recovery facilities through a urban systems by gathering data, accessing increase in global uptake. This has led to the this as automation technology becomes to increase safety and precision of than 50% of the state’s generation will shared machine learning platform. Machine the Internet of Things and applying data growth of non-repetitive occupations. [58] more necessary in optimising sorting operations while upskilling employers come from utility and rooftop solar. vision and artificial intelligence can also analytics algorithms. In the waste sector, processes to reach purity targets. [62] to complement automated functions. identify recyclable products by type. businesses including Enevo, Bigbelly and The work groups most likely to be Electric vehicle technology is advancing Ecube Labs offer level-sensing, internet- automated over the next 20-years are rapidly, with EV’s predicted to reach 33% Various resource recovery technologies connected bins to optimise collection which machinery operators/drivers (89.8% of the global car fleet and 55% of light such as thermal energy from waste, are reporting operational cost savings of automated) and labourers (88.4% vehicle sales by 2040. [51] This will be anaerobic digestion of organic waste 50%-80%. [55] Other emerging automated). These two sectors represent another significant driver of lithium-ion and in-vessel composting are technically technologies include smart scales for tracking 15.5% of NSW employment. [58] battery consumption in the future. mature in many countries. With the right food waste generation such as those used in financial and policy settings, these types of IKEA stores as part of their Food Is Precious Other Australian states are already centralised resource recovery technologies Campaign. [56] Number of employees Chance of automation (%) positioning to capitalise on this opportunity, could become more widespread in NSW. 900000 90 with Australia’s first lithium-ion battery The Circular Economy envisions a more 800000 80 recycling facility now operating in Victoria and Emerging resource recovery technologies sustainable system in which materials are 700000 70 Regional Development Australia championing include pyrolysis, turning plastic waste into traded and repurposed, flowing between 600000 60 a ‘Lithium Valley’ precinct in Western liquid fuel, as well as an enzymatic process people and businesses. Sensing, optimisation 500000 50 Australia which would bring together lithium producing bioliquid and clean recyclables, and data analytics technologies will play an 400000 40 refining, battery manufacturing and recycling whilst generating electricity. Other essential role in managing these complex 300000 30 Number of employees

businesses in an industrial ecosystem companies have begun to take advantage logistics and quality control systems 200000 20 Chance of automation (%) powered by the global energy transition. [45] of the waste-water-energy nexus by using 100000 10 other business’s waste to help generate RFID technology now ubiquitous in 0 0 While the lifespan of new energy power through anaerobic digestion. access cards and contactless payments, technologies range from 5 - 20-years, could be adapted to enable pay-by- 13. Medical 6. Agriculture 11. Scientist infrastructure should be planned to Commercial organic waste is accepted weight waste collection models which 4. Food retailing 8. Road transport 14. Residential care 1. Food and beverage2. Other store-based 5. Property operators 7. Food management 9. Personal and other 12. Social assistance 10. Construction servey deal with this emerging waste stream. at Yarra Valley Water’s Wollert sewage incentivise waste avoidance and recycling. 3. Administrative services 15. Preschool education [52] Additionally, solar power currently treatment plant and Richgro’s fertiliser In South Korea, an RFID system is Figure 15: Top 15 industries at risk of automation. [59] represents one eighth of the NSW regional production plant. Meanwhile, the Clean already in place to allow weight-based NEM generation mix. When existing Energy Finance Corporation identified a charging for food waste disposal. installations reach their end of life, this potential $1.1 billion investment opportunity represents an opportunity to recover high for energy generation at intensive 52 value materials within these products. [50] livestock and food processing facilities. 53

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Convenience Technological Consumption Planetary Policy and lifestyles evolutions and growth health regulation

CIRCULAR ECONOMY GLOBALISED WASTE TRADE LEGACY COSTS EVOLVING INDUSTRIES In Australia, solar recycling is only done by one Adelaide based company Reclaim PV. 700 Virgin material Demand BAU 600 substituted by It estimates that for the next 15 years up 500 circular material 400 Estimated 23 to 150,000 solar panels will need recycling 300 200 time for a per year, rapidly increasing into the millions 100 Demand under circular system AUS % 0 per year thereafter. [79] It is estimated 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 nappy to biodegrade that there will be 78 million tonnes of Figure 16: Effect of circular system on 50 77 years cumulative PV waste material by 2050. [80] primary material demand. [63]

As home solar battery installations 13 Circular economy principles aim to transform increase, more will need to be disposed of. the current linear economy from a take- Estimates are that around 8,000 tonnes of make-use-dispose model to a restorative Global % lithium-ion batteries per year will increase Figure 18: Years taken for nappy to closed-loop system. A circular economy biodegrade. [72] to 150,000 tonnes in 20 years. [81] aims to reduce waste, pollution and 87 pressure on resources by lowering the The rise in consumer-centric services is Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Legacy costs from previously landfilled waste amount of virgin material consumed. [64] Other agricultural production and supply chain enabling consumers to expect on-demand have a range of impacts .The hidden costs technologies services. Companies are also responding Figure 17: Value of Australian plastic exports 2017-2018 [68] of unmanaged municipal waste include, Internationally, we can see greater recognition Farm management software sensing and loT to customer expectations by provided environmental costs, loss of productivity of the benefits of a circular economy. Within products with reduced packaging. Emerging Multiple Australian waste organisations from damages to human health, the loss Australia, circular economy principles are Many countries lack the capacity to process Figure 19: AUS and global investment into web-based recycling markets are allowing and governing bodies argue that recycling of valuable products and lost development starting to underpin national and state waste their own waste. In 2017, Europe exported AgTech 2014-17. [76] in Australia needs to transition to support customers to repurpose their goods and policy objectives; however, specific action one-sixth of its plastic waste, largely to opportunities from space allocated to landfill. waste being processed and reused to earn from it in their own time. [82] implementation plans are still in the pipeline. Asia. China has imported a cumulative 45% There are a number of internationally make new products domestically. [71] Waste prevention programs also bring of global plastic waste since 1992. [69] emerging markets. Agriculture is a long- Australia has increased its attention job opportunities which could generate It has been proposed that the most standing market however digital intervention on the circular Economy following the In November 2017, China outlined between 40,000 and 180,000 jobs by effective way to transition away from an is impacting the entire supply chain. ‘AgTech’ Impact on 20-year enforcement of the China National Sword their intention of adopting a 0.5% 2040. Other legacy costs tied to poor waste export-focused industry is to establish a innovation is modernising agriculture and Waste Strategy Policy, which restricted waste and metal contamination limit on waste imports management include decreases in tourism circular waste economy in Australia. [71] making it resilient and more efficient. It • To realise a circular economy, the for 24 waste categories. These new due to polluted environments and loss imports to the country in 2018. Australia is estimated that the value of AgTech will strategy requires change but across all contamination thresholds came into incurred through damaged fisheries. [73] has committed 100 per cent of Australian reach around $189 billion by 2022. [77] industries to adopt industrial ecology packaging being recyclable, compostable force in January 2018. [70] Rehabilitating a legacy landfill can be an principles, including the emerging and or reusable by 2025 or earlier. [65] Agriculture is one of Australia’s most arduous and costly task for Australian evolving industries of the future. Australia exports recyclable material to competitive sectors. AgTech in Australia councils. Dozens of landfills across In NSW, The ‘Sustainability Advantage’ over 100 countries with 4.23 megatonnes is predicted to be a $100 billion industry • Changes to global trade markets, NSW and Victoria are suspected to program of the Office of Environment and of recycled materials exported in 2016-17. by 2030. [77] Australia’s food wastage such as the China Sword, can have a be leaking potentially toxic materials Heritage estimates that opportunities in China has been a major destination for has an annual estimated cost of $8 billion. huge impact on waste management into soil and waterways. [74] recovered resource value and avoided Australia’s recycled waste, with around 1.3 AgTech can reduce this waste through the operations. A long-term strategy must landfill levy at $2 billion per year. [66] A million tonnes exported in 2016–17. Globally there is projected to be a 183% provision of a suitable food supply. limit dependence on global markets to NSW circular economy implementation This accounted for 4% of Australia’s total increase in cost for waste management build resilience in the industry. plan will be developed by 2020 provide recyclable waste but included significant Historically, manufacturing has made a between 2010 and 2025 which is • The strategy should prevent further guidance on the above focus areas. amounts of recyclable plastics (35% of totals) significant contribution to the Australian a rate of 12.2% increase in waste legacy costs and have a focus on how and recyclable paper (30% of totals). [71] economy but is experiencing rapid management costs per annum. [75] to accelerate the rehabilitation and Other states are also incorporating CE change in the face of global trends and into their policies and strategies. Green Countries still accepting imports management of landfills, especially in Sustainable procurement aims to reduce emerging technologies. While traditional Industries SA have indicated that adoption include Malaysia and Vietnam. light of more frequent extreme weather the impacts of goods and services. In this low tech manufacturing moves offshore, of a circular economy could create up to However, these countries are importing and emerging hazardous wastes. context, sustainable procurement can Australia is seeing a transition to high 25,700 jobs by 2030 and also produce at much lower prices. [71] increase increaser responsibility through tech advanced manufacturing industries a 27% reduction in greenhouse gases, product take back and recycling schemes with more automation, advanced equivalent to 7.7m tonnes of C0 . [67] 2 to reduce the burden of legacy costs. materials and 3d printing. [78] 54 55

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Convenience Technological Consumption Planetary Policy and lifestyles evolutions and growth health regulation

ECOSYSTEM POLLUTION food chains, causing disease. [86] resource recovery. As resources become expected to see an increase in extreme West Australia since the 1970s. Australia Impact on 20-year increasingly scarce, circular solutions rainfall events, bushfires, sea level rise, must work to mitigate climate risk as well Waste Strategy proection Eight million tonnes of plastics are disposed severe storms and heatwaves. [95] will become an increasingly attractive as adapt to the changes we are locked of into the ocean every year. Unregulated • The strategy should encourage option to businesses who may find it more These events increase the increases in to face over the next 50 years. [99] the adoption of alternatives to disposal causes blockage of drains which economically viable to recover and repurpose the volumes of disaster waste which is has significant consequences in the wake materials rather than extract new resources. typically very difficult to manage with Climate model projections indicate a products with significant impacts on

Billions of Pounds. of flooding. Micro-plastics also cause likely continued decrease in tropical environmental and human health, current systems. [33] The management such a hazardous chemicals and severe damage to wildlife health. [86] of waste following a disaster is extremely cyclone numbers but an increase in the EXTREME WEATHER important for the long-term health impacts intensity of those cyclones. [100] single-use plastic, so bans on harmful US India Egypt China RESOURCE DEPLETION Brail Turkey Burma Algeria Nigeria products are more readily accepted. Vietnam Pakistan Thailand Morocco Malaysia on communities and environments. [96] Sri Lanka Indonesia How climate change Philippines Bangladesh North Korea South Africa . In NSW, severe fire weather is projected will affect NSW to increase in the future. These increases • Resource depletion and increased . value of resources represent an Figure 20: Output of mismanaged waste by Business as usual will predominantly occur in summer and Earth Overshoot Day: June , ENVIRONMENTAL RESILIENCE coastal populations [83] . Since 1900 worldwide economic spring. Severe fire weather conditions opportunity for the strategy to allow for resource recovery in NSW. . losses due to natural disasters have suggest that when fires do occur, they Carbon emissions reduced 30% Evidence of human existence can be seen Earth Overshoot Day: September , been increasing. 30% of these losses Number of planet Earths . will be harder to control. [101] • The strategy must have best practice in most ecosystems. As our population are due to flooding events, 26% from climate change adaptation guidance increases and our demand for food and . Climate change is projected to increase earthquakes and 19% from storm damage. for the whole waste network energy grows, our ecological footprint is temperatures in Sydney, with maximums to It is projected that by 2050, between to limit the severity of extreme having increasingly significant consequences. increase by 0.7°C by 2030. Changes in land Figure 21: Number of Earth’s resources $93.7-$150.5 billion worth of US coastal weather risks, especially risks consumed projections to 2030 [33] Figure 22: Climate change affects in NSW. property will be below sea level. [97] use, however, has the potential to double Hazardous waste ranges from household relating to transport and trade. [91] In Australia, the climate has changed the temperature increase caused by climate chemicals and paint to asbestos and The global community requires the annual in the last 100 years. Since 1910 there change in NSW urban environments. [101] medical waste. Sometimes it is the total resource output — all fossil fuel Asia is one of the most at-risk regions has been a 0.9°C increase in average Heatwaves are projected to occur more often transportation or storage of these waste use, biological resource harvesting, and for impacts of sea level rise. Asia has surface temperature and an average sea and last up to 3.5 days longer, on average, streams that are hazardous. [84] water use — of 1.7 Earths to maintain over 800,000km2 of land positioned to level rise of 0.19 metres. There have been than currently. By 2030 there are expected present consumption rates, much of which to be ten more heatwaves per year. [101] Hazardous wastes are of concern due to be affected by a 1m sea level rise. This is observed decreases in rainfall in South ends up as waste. By 2030, without a their disproportionately high effects on higher than in any other region. This land change in consumption patterns, we will humans and the environment. Hazardous also houses over 100 million people and require twice as many resources per waste in Australia is managed in a number generates over $568.2 billion in GDP for year as the planet can provide. [87] the region. [55] Without immediate action, of ways including landfill, recycling, chemical 32 these environmental disasters will have The frequency of extreme and physical treatment, biodegradation As of 2017, we extract about 60 billion knock-on effects for other countries in the 28 heat events is increasing and incineration. Volumes of hazardous tonnes of raw materials a year, 50% more Asia-Pacific region, including Australia. [92] waste in Australia are expected to reach annually than 30 years ago. [88] This 9.9 million tonnes by 2033-34. [85] 24 trend, combined with demographic shifts 2018 was Australia’s third-warmest and rapid urbanisation, threatens to make Contaminated soils make up over one- year on record, with the national mean 20 resource scarcity a major concern. quarter of hazardous waste in Australia temperature 1.14°C above average. It was amongst the six warmest years on causing major legacy issues. Cobalt has been given increased attention 16 record for all States and the warmest due to its use in electronics – specifically A notable impact of our ecosystem on record for New South Wales. [93] 12

electric vehicles, computers and other Number of extreme days pollution is our diminishing reliance personal devices which are in high demand The temperature of NSW is expected to on ecosystem services including the 8 globally. Due to the low supply shortage, provision of food, water, environmental climb by an additional 1.8°C by 2090, it is predicted that by the end of 2019 the with an RCP4.5 emissions trajectory and and climatic regulation benefits. 4 cobalt deficit will be 3205 tonnes, and in 3.7°C by 2090 with an RCP8.5 trajectory.

We are starting to see the damage of 2020 the deficit will be 5340 tonnes. [89] [94] The increase of temperature and 0 chemical by-products such as organic sea level rise are two driving forces 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Australia’s mining industry contributes to pollutants. When exposed to ecosystems, behind many natural disaster events. 7.4% of the GDP [90]. Depletion of high-value Figure 23: Frequency of extreme heat events in NSW (1910-2010). [98] these chemicals bioaccumulate up materials can build the business case for As a result of climate change, NSW is 56 57

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Convenience Technological Consumption Planetary Policy and lifestyles evolutions and growth health regulation

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY GOVERNANCE The uptake of zero waste policies at a area. In Singapore, land use conflicts often POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY Impact on 20-year city governance level is an emerging occur due to the limited space available. Concerns about political uncertainty Waste Strategy trend, notably in San Francisco, Singapore’s waste is incinerated reducing have increased all around the world • The strategy should align with new Waste is Tokyo and Auckland. [108] tonnage by 90%, and the resulting ash is since the global financial crisis in 2007. and existing global sustainability responsible for Lost fees to then transported to an offshore landfill [110] Reports suggest that this uncertainty has targets and be adaptive enough been a key factor of weaker economic to match future commitments by approximately NSW Govt due In NSW, there has been opposition performance in many economies. The the Australian government. to delayed LD to energy from waste facilities being Of Australia’s Waste sent World Uncertainty Index (WUI) has been located near residential areas. In NSW, • To overcome political uncertainty, the waste levy cost M from Sydney developed to monitor 143 countries from greenhouse km 20% of putrescible waste is transported strategy must be well supported and Per annum to Woodlawn 1996 and onward. Globally, the WUI gas emissions 21km to Woodlawn landfill by rail. Even clearly demonstrate why it’s necessary spikes have been recorded around the landfill sufficient space for kerbside collection to promote human and environmental time of major disruptions including the including bins and trucks becoming can health over the next 20-years. Figure 24: Australian waste generating CO Figure 25: Loss to NSW Govt due to delayed 9/11 attacks, the SARS outbreak, the 2 be challenged by conflicting land uses. emissions [33] QLD waste levy [105] Gulf War II, and the UK’s Brexit vote. • To avoid land use conflicts, the strategy , tonnes per year should seek to increase the perception It is internationally recognised that acting on Global trends concerning governance and Cross-country comparisons reveal that of waste as an essential service and Always voted for the same party Considered voting for another party the level of uncertainty significantly mitigating climate change and creating plans compliance management are varied when it LAND USE CONFLICTS dispel myths about waste infrastructure varies across countries and is, on for adaption to these effects is necessary comes to waste management. The European Figure 26: Waste sent to long-distance 80% that reduces social licence to operate. 72 average, smaller in advanced economies and needs to be actioned immediately. As Waste Framework Directive outlines basic landfill NSW [109] 69 70 than in the rest of the world. • The strategy must consider how well as having implications for low emission waste management principles, to inform the 63 60 it can integrate with different energy targets, global commitments development of waste legislation and policy of 61 Land use planning is critical to best-practice 60 55 Global common problems, such as levels of government, so the 53 have implications for landfill practices. the EU Member states. Under this framework, city design to ensure good social and 52 49 50 48 climate change, are often affected by actions and recommendations are Decomposition of organic waste in a landfill each EU Member State implements its own 50 46 environmental outcomes. Consideration of severe uncertainty. Research determined easily adopted by those making creates methane, a greenhouse gas 21 times waste legislation and policy, with varying waste enables allocation of suitable space 45 40 40 that global uncertainty negatively decisions on waste management more potent than CO2. [102]. For countries management methods and targets. [106] for management and resource recovery. It is 34 30 30 impacts on countries emissions and heavily reliant on fossil fuels for energy, 29 29 29 important to consider the siting of operational 30 The Australian Government Department 25 welfare in a strategic context. [113] emission reduction targets also build the 25 25 waste and resource recovery facilities ‒ 23 of the Environment and Energy published 22 case for energy-from-waste developments. these need to be within easy access of 20 The impact of political uncertainty and the National Waste Policy update in collection locations while also considering the impact on waste management is Our national waste policy embodies the 2018. Using the National Waste Policy 10 impacts on the surrounding areas. best demonstrated by the example of circular economy, shifting away from ‘take, as a guide, regulation and enforcement the Queensland waste levy. Queensland make, use and dispose of’ to an approach for waste management in Australia 0 With all developments, it is important to not has experienced an inundation of waste where we maintain the value of resources resides with the states. [107] only consider locations for large scale storage 1967 1969 1979 1987 1990 1993 1996 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 to landfill from the state of NSW due to as long as possible. In 2018 NSW EPA has and sorting but ensure that enough space Each state has its own waste strategy the abolishment of its waste levy in 2013 embarked on a journey towards achieving is provided for separate waste streams at document, outlining state-based Figure 27: The extent of voting volatility [112] marked by a change in government. a circular economy in Australia through the source. The increasing value of land is targets, mechanisms and drivers. policy change. This policy is the driving putting pressure on developers to maximise force behind many of the actions Australian All mainland states within Australia have returns, limiting space for storage, recycling industry is taking to reach a circular adopted a landfill waste levy, which seeks rooms and social enterprises to run reuse economy. [103] Globally other governments to reduce disposal to landfill and promote and recycling centres. New regulations state including the Netherlands and Scotland resource recovery. Unintended consequences that new residential developments over are establishing their own policies driving of the levy can include illegal dumping or four storeys must have chutes for recycling action to achieve a circular economy. [104] transport of waste long distances to zones and general waste. This is aimed to hit a recycling goal of 70% by 2030. [110] Marine plastic is one lens through which with a low levy rate. A set back in the introduction of the Queensland waste levy Australia has come to recognise the urgency Internationally, energy from waste plants has resulted in over $114 million annually of plastics issues. We have now found plastic are often centrally located. [73] This lost fees to the NSW government. [105] in Antarctic waters, meaning pollutants have reduces travel distances and allows for been found in all of the world’s oceans. waste heat to be used easily in the local 58 59 Summary

This report will be used to inform the 20-year waste strategy.

This report has management considerations all affect the essentially eliminated. Waste quantities investigated the operation of the waste management system decrease, and the waste market is in NSW. These range from landfill legacy competitive. Circular economy principles megatrends that are costs to international trade uncertainties. are embraced and innovation in waste shaping the waste technology results. Clear policies have The impact of the waste industry on driven the success of this scenario. industry in NSW and planetary and human health is becoming possible scenarios increasingly important with considerations In the non-favourable scenario, down in in the next 20 years such as climate change impacts. Policy the dumps waste increases and recovery with a further and regulation need to be clear and rates decrease. Landfill is the main option demonstrate leadership to promote a 20-year outlook. for waste and consumers disengage. move to a more circular economy. Health impacts emerge, and regulation is The megatrends research highlighted Six scenarios were created to represent concentrated around large landfills. The the need to consider modern consumer plausible and extreme future cases. These other scenarios explore futures ranging lifestyles including their expectations and represent several attributes ranging from from business as usual to industry or the way they communicate. By engaging a successful circular economy model community driven solutions. A final scenario with customers, it is possible to avoid waste to a non-desirable outcome where the looks at a future that combines a range of generation through upstream initiatives majority of waste is sent to landfill. services that are provided by a big market as well as increase reuse and recycling. player resulting in reduced waste overall Advances in technology enable new and These future scenarios can be used to but a potentially uncompetitive market. more efficient waste management practices; assist the strategy to respond to different however, it also changes existing waste possibilities. In the favourable scenario, This report will be used to inform streams. Local and international waste circular success the term waste was the 20-year waste strategy.

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SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT PROCESS Projections outline potential changes over SOFTWARE-BASED SELECTION OF CONSISTENT, Based on the most consistent groups Scenarios start with an analysis of the key time and describe plausible alternatives CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS YET FUNDAMENTALLY of projections, scenario narratives factors driving our future in relation to the for the development of each key factor. Following the development of projections DIFFERENT SCENARIOS can be created. See the outcomes topic at hand – in the case of this research, As such, the developed projections are for each key factor, a cross-impact analysis, (Option Creation Analysis) in the main part of this report. the future of the waste sector. Key factors alternative, mutually exclusive, projections using proprietary software, was conducted. Evaluating the cluster map, the scenario are defined as the driving forces and for the future shape of each key factor. Cross-impact analysis means assessing the software can be used to assess which groups critical uncertainties shaping the future. consistency of each projection occurring of projections are likely to occur together, and In this context, five key factors that will concurrently with all the other projections. SCENARIOS therefore represent a plausible future outcome. most likely influence and shape the future This is defined along a range from -5 to +5 In the next step, a set of plausible, In essence, this involves evaluating the clusters of the waste sector were identified. (-5 meaning highly unlikely for these to manifest consistent and alternative scenarios for the and identify the groups of projections that are alongside each other; +5 meaning highly likely future of the waste sector are created. most consistent. This evaluation can be done by for these to manifest alongside each other). KEY FACTORS AND PROJECTIONS using the scenario software or in a collaborative In the next step, a software algorithm is used In the first step, each key factor is described process among the project team. In the process CREATING A MORPHOLOGICAL BOX to identify the most consistent clusters, or and two critical axes, the key variables at hand, a combination of these approaches The key factors along with their combinations, of projections. The consistency defining each key factor, are identified. Based was used – starting with the scenario tool and associated projections are then arranged analysis results in a cluster map plotting all on this, four plausible future projections, iterating among the project team. Each of the in a so-called morphological box. The internally consistent projection bundles. Similar based in the two axes, are developed. identified combinations then forms the base of scenario software then creates a matrix bundles of projections are close to each other a scenario and a starting point for its narrative. of key factors and projections as a basis (clustered), while dissimilar ones are apart. This for the following cross-impact analysis. forms the basis of the scenario development. SCENARIO WRITING

< Key Factors

< Projections < Consistent combination of projections

Figure 28: Morphological Box for NSW EPA Waste Scenarios Figure 29: Option Creation for NSW EPA Waste Scenarios 66 67 Abbreviations

AI Artificial Intelligence

CO2 Carbon Dioxide, Carbon emissions EfW Energy from waste FOGO Food organics and garden organics PET Polyethylene terephthalate PFAS Per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances PV Photo Voltaic RCP Representative Concentration Pathway RDF Refuse derived fuel SMaRT Sustainable Materials Research and Technology (Centre) SARS Severe acute respiratory syndrome STEEP Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political WARR Waste and Resource Recovery WUI World Uncertainty Index 68 69 70