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Waste. What Future Do We Want? for the NSW WASTE SECTOR

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Waste. What Future Do We Want? for the NSW WASTE SECTOR Waste. What future do we want? FOR THE NSW WASTE SECTOR 1 4 Executive Summary 7 Introduction 9 Methodology 12 Megatrends 15 Megashocks 20 Scenarios 50 Megatrend details 61 Summary 63 References 66 Appendices About Foresight Foresight is Arup’s internal think-tank and consultancy which focuses on the future of the built environment and society at large. We help organisations understand trends, explore new ideas, and radically rethink the future of their businesses. We developed the concept of ‘foresight by design’, which uses innovative design tools and techniques in order to bring new ideas to life, and to engage all stakeholders in meaningful conversations about change. SHALISE LEESFIELD School student and EPA grant recipient © Shalise Leesfield Shalise © This report was prepared by Arup for the NSW Environmental Protection Authority. 2 3 Scenarios Executive Summary Down in the dumps The opportunity to create change in the Battered by economic NSW waste industry has never been greater. shocks and policy Circular indecision, Australia’s belief Success in recycling has failed. Only high-value materials Circular economy thinking is are extracted for recycling embedded in every aspect of with the rest of the residual NSW commerce and daily life. waste being sent to landfill. Material prevention, reuse, Landfills fill up, waste recycling and separation has management is expensive, Public interest is high and there Five key themes emerged from The megashocks that were become business as usual. and health risks emerge. are many international case the megatrends review: considered to be prevalent for the Resources and investment are studies of countries creating NSW waste industry included: Convenience Lifestyles: Demographic flowing freely, and ‘waste’ is a new jobs and businesses, changes are shifting customer expectations • Critical infrastructure breakdown word of the past. improving waste management towards more convenient and digital solutions and reducing their impact on • Energy grid crisis with affluence increasing waste streams. Wasted the environment by adopting Road to • Large-scale data breach opportunity circular economy principles. Technological Evolutions: digital recovery adoption and renewable energy reshape • Pandemic – mad cow disease Strong markets and consistent The opportunity to embrace Although some pockets of excellence can be consumption and production and generate • Hazardous waste policy creates confidence the circular economy has found for waste initiatives in NSW, a clear new and emerging waste streams. been met with caution. • China Sword lifted within industry to invest in and ambitious strategy is required for NSW to Although the benefits Consumption and growth: the adoption waste management solutions. create change and embed circular economy A foresight analysis method known have been demonstrated of circular economy principles could High technology waste thinking throughout the waste industry. as the morphological box approach in other jurisdictions the lead to new jobs and markets; however sorting extracts most types of This report aims to answer the question. was used to develop a series of pace of change is slow, and legacy costs from existing landfill pose recyclable material and energy plausible and extreme scenarios. governments are reluctant a big risk to the waste industry. from waste facilities are used Waste. What future to reduce space in landfill. to push for major changes Scenarios do we want? Planetary health: resource use and in waste management ecosystem pollution have major effects on The scenarios provide potential stories of practices. A strategic foresight approach has planetary health, while climate change will the future and are used to assess risks Best been taken for assessing megatrends present huge risks for the waste industry. and implications for the 20-year waste intentions that are shaping the future of strategy. Although ‘circular success’ and Service the waste industry in NSW. Policy and regulation: Land use planning ‘down in the dumps’ represent best and High engagement sparks monopoly and clear policies and strategies can shape worst cases they are all representative of community concern which a better waste management system. current situations around the world. The drives widespread behaviour A service monopoly reigns other scenarios provide different ideas about change. Single-use plastic providing a data-driven how the waste industry might evolve. has been banned, and offering of all services Whereas megatrends are slow-moving communities sort and to customers: energy, large impact effects megashocks recycle their waste including water, transport, waste are less likely but high impact events organics. Unfortunately, management, food supply that also need to be considered. without the support of and other items. Efficiency coordinated infrastructure, and convenience are the impact is limited. high; however, risks of uncompetitive behaviour or cybersecurity need to be managed. 4 5 Introduction NSW EPA in collaboration with Infrastructure NSW is exploring the foundation and opportunity of delivering a 20-year Waste and Resource Recovery Strategy for NSW. It aims to create a smarter The strategy would lead the discussion, FORESIGHT STUDY THE CHALLENGE create the vision and implement the change To help inform a 20-year Waste and There has been no substantial change in future for NSW, one that and direction required to support a holistic Resource Recovery Strategy, Arup was landfill diversion rates in NSW over the last will support greater quality and sustainable resource recovery industry, commissioned by NSW EPA to explore the ten years, and waste volumes are increasing reduce waste to landfill for NSW, and future potential of the industry in NSW. This at a higher pace than population growth, of life for its citizens and enable waste management to be a real strategic foresight study identifies both global even despite NSW having the highest landfill prevent further degradation contributor to the State’s circular economy and local megatrends and megashocks levy of any State in Australia. Specifically, aspirations over the next 20-years. to develop a set of future scenarios. the waste sector in NSW currently faces to the environment. Implications of these scenarios are then challenges ranging from interstate waste assessed and recommendations provided. movements to public perception, restricted export markets and the threat of climate This study outlines six possible change effects on existing infrastructure. future scenarios. It identifies both opportunities and THE OPPORTUNITY challenges for the waste sector. This transformational project has extraordinary potential for NSW EPA to This study should help drive the provide pioneering leadership to the waste development of a robust and innovative sector, not just in NSW but further afield. long-term waste strategy. MEGASHOCK PLICATIONS & S & IM REC M OM EG M A EN T D R A E T N I D O S N S Scenario testing Initial Horion scanning Key factors Implications and research and and trend research Proections policy review insights Expert engagement Scenario formulation for the waste sector T N E PM LO ON VE PTI DE INCPE SCENARIOS Figure 1: Project phases. 6 7 Methodology Arup has used a morphological box approach which is a structured process for scenario development. Several possible projections for each key factor are then defined. A combination of projections is then used to create the basis for a scenario. Once several consistent scenarios are chosen, they are detailed in order to create a set of plausible and mutually exclusive stories that spark conversation about potential future pathways (Figure 1). For more information on the scenario development process see the Appendix. MEGASHOCKS PROJECTIONS SCENARIOS AND MEGATRENDS DEVELOPMENT What influences the future What are plausible options How will the future of waste in NSW? for each key factor? develop? KEY FACTOR SELECTION OF ANALYSIS DRAFT SCENARIOS What are the main What are consistent factors of influence? combinations of projections? producer responsibility waste collection impact awareness electronic waste prevention informal collection urban leadership clothing l s ca oc sharing iti ia ol l p food surplus STRATEGY 1 t resource depletion l e upcycling a c t h n STRATEGY 2 n e biological processing o l m emissions o n g o i r c waste-to-energy i a v l n e industrial symbiosis STRATEGY 3 persistant pollutants planned obsolescence economic resource intensity circular economy personal excess irresponsible disposal legacy costs green procurement pay-as-you-throw Figure 2: Project delivery process. 8 9 Horizon scanning and megatrends Horizon scanning is the systematic identification, analysis and communication of signals of change relevant to a specific focal area. It is used to detect the trends and issues MEGATRENDS Arup’s global team has developed a A horizon scanning process shaping the future. A trend can be defined long-term evolutionary changes global set of trend cards highlighting was used to find the key as the tendency of a subject to move critical international trends in the waste in a specified direction over time. industry. These are known as the Drivers trends including a scan of Change cards and are categorised of the megatrends as well A horizon scanning process was used to using the STEEP (social, technological, find the key trends including a scan of the economic, environmental, political) as the weak signals. megatrends as well as the weak signals.
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