Posted on Authorea 2 Feb 2021 — The copyright holder is the author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse without permission. — https://doi.org/10.22541/au.161225714.48293578/v1 — This a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. wildlife patterns-of-rabies-cases-in-south-africa-between-1993-2019-including-the-role-of- Poisson discrete a species using to analysis identified cluster cases clusters 701 spatiotemporal significant was 11 A 13 review of identified A total densities, rabies. livestock a of substantial. and with dog are epidemiology 2019, estimated livestock the underlying to including of (p in for 1993 loss animals, accounting plays from through model, blooded wildlife Africa probability areas warm space-time South the rural in in in assess encephalitis cases losses fatal to rabies economic in level confirmed resulting and all lives Africa, of human South conducted of to loss endemic The zoonosis viral humans. global a is Rabies Abstract 2021 2, February 3 2 1 Koeppel Katja wildlife 1993-2019, of between role Africa the South including in cases rabies of Patterns aisptenSA2.pdf pattern Rabies file Africa. Hosted South western across in and campaigns rabies control southern rabies for in coordinated highlighted frequent of were more importance areas were the high-risk cases showing aardwolf and provinces, and boundaries, mongoose several fox yellow administrative spanned Africa, bat-eared often South and Clusters of Africa, different Africa. parts South followed north-western South central species the in wildlife in frequent common in more more Rabies were cases jackal cristatus). cases (Cynictis black-backed rapid jackal (Proteles mongoose megalotis), black-backed the aardwolf Yellow (Otocyon distributions: to and fox cases. spatial due bat-eared with suricatta) the by likely cases, (Suricata of followed wildlife meerkat most of remainder species, mesomelas), 59.8% clusters, duration the wildlife (Canis for affected up in endemic frequently accounted making years these most dogs (15.8%) half the of Domestic wildlife a was and Outside infection. penicillate) and (21.1%) rabies one livestock with length. than (3.2%), associated intermediate less cats jackals domestic often of especially were vectors, being Africa wildlife clusters South of two of decline remaining remainder the the in with outbreaks years, 2 than less nvriyo Pretoria of University Africa South Science Veterinary of Government of Faculty Pretoria of University < .5.Teeicue orln-emcutr atn oeta er ndrto n ee hr emcutr lasting clusters term short seven and duration in years 8 than more lasting clusters long-term four included These 0.05). 1 cetvnSchalkwyk van Ockert , vial at available 2 n ee Thompson Peter and , https://authorea.com/users/393256/articles/506911- 1 3 Posted on Authorea 2 Feb 2021 — The copyright holder is the author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse without permission. — https://doi.org/10.22541/au.161225714.48293578/v1 — This a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary.

Annual laboratories confirmed rabies cases 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 0 Western Cape Cape Eastern Cape Northern West North Total: 758 Total: 1441 Total: 231 Total: 469 1993 1995 1997 1999

2001 Species 2003 2005 Companion 2007 Year 2 2009 2011 Livestock 2013 2015

2017 Wildlife 2019 Total Wildlife Livestock animals Companion KwaZulu Total: 5198 Mpumalanga Total: 1333 Total: 1222 Free State Total: 216 Total: 835 Gauteng Limpopo − Natal Posted on Authorea 2 Feb 2021 — The copyright holder is the author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse without permission. — https://doi.org/10.22541/au.161225714.48293578/v1 — This a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary.

Number of labority confirmed rabies cases 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Months Jul Aug 3 Sep Oct Nov Dec Wildlife Livestock Companion animals Posted on Authorea 2 Feb 2021 — The copyright holder is the author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse without permission. — https://doi.org/10.22541/au.161225714.48293578/v1 — This a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary.

Cluster 13 Cluster 10 Cluster 7 Cluster 4 Cluster 1

0 5 10 0 5 10 15 0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30 0 20 40 60

2005−07 2016−01

2015−05 2016−01 2004−01

2006−01 2015−06 2006−01 2016−02 2016−04

2008−01 2015−07 2006−07 2016−07

2016−02 2010−01 2015−08

2016−10 2007−01 2012−01

2015−09 2016−03

Cluster 11 Cluster 8 Cluster 5 Cluster 2

0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 0 5 10 15 20 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.510.012.5 0 10 20 30

2008−01 Species Category

2000−01

2003−07 1994−01 2010−01 2002−01 4 Dog_Cat

2004−01 2004−01 2012−01 1996−01 Livestock

2006−01

2004−07 2014−01 Wildlife

1998−01 2008−01

Cluster 12 Cluster 9 Cluster 6 Cluster 3

0 1 2 3 4 0 5 10 15 0 5 10 15 20 0 20 40 60

2010−01 2016−01 1994−01

2016−04 1996−01

1995−10

2016−07 2015−01 1998−01

2000−01 2016−10

1996−01 2002−01 2017−01

2020−01 2004−01 Posted on Authorea 2 Feb 2021 — The copyright holder is the author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse without permission. — https://doi.org/10.22541/au.161225714.48293578/v1 — This a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary.

No of laboratory confirmed rabies cases No of laboratory confimred rabies cases 10 20 30 40 50 60 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 0 Jan 1993

Feb 1994 1995 Mar 1996 Apr 1997

May 1998 Black-backed jackal 1999 Months Jun 2000

Jul 2001 2002 Aug 2003 Sep

5 2004

Oct 2005

Side-striped jackal Side-striped 2006 Nov 2007

Dec 2008 2009

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total wildife Total mongoose Yellow Bat-eared fox Aardwolf Black-backed jackal 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Posted on Authorea 2 Feb 2021 — The copyright holder is the author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse without permission. — https://doi.org/10.22541/au.161225714.48293578/v1 — This a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 6