East Asian Strategic Review 2019
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East Asian Strategic Review 2019 East Asian Strategic Review 2019 The National Institute for Defense Studies, Japan ISBN978-4-86482-074-5 Printed in Japan East Asian Strategic Review 2019 The National Institute for Defense Studies Japan Copyright © 2019 by the National Institute for Defense Studies First edition: July 2019 All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without written, prior permission from the National Institute for Defense Studies. This publication is an English translation of the original Japanese edition published in April 2019. EASR 2019 comprises NIDS researchers’ analyses and descriptions based on information compiled from open sources in Japan and overseas. The statements contained herein do not necessarily represent the official position of the Government of Japan or the Ministry of Defense. Edited by: The National Institute for Defense Studies 5-1 Ichigaya Honmura-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162-8808, Japan URL: http://www.nids.mod.go.jp Translated and Published by: Urban Connections Osaki Bright Core 15F, 5-15, Kitashinagawa 5-chome, Shinagawa-ku, Tokyo 141-0001, Japan Phone: +81-3-6432-5691 URL: https://urbanconnections.jp/en/ ISBN 978-4-86482-074-5 The National Institute for Defense Studies East Asian Strategic Review 2019 Printed in Japan Cover photo Japan-India joint exercise (JIMEX18) (JMSDF Maritime Staff Office) Eighth Japan-Australia 2+2 Foreign and Defence Ministerial Consultations (Japan Ministry of Defense) F-35A fighter (JASDF Air Staff Office) Preface This edition of the East Asian Strategic Review (EASR) marks the twenty-third year of the flagship publication of the National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS), Japan’s sole national think tank in the area of security affairs. Over those years, EASR has built up an established reputation as the only annual report in both Japanese and English that provides domestic and international audiences with insight into Japan’s security environment in the context of the increasingly challenging security issues of East Asia. EASR comprises chapters examining trends in specific regional countries that have an impact on Japan’s security, and chapters covering timely topics in East Asian security. This edition analyzes diverse themes such as the US Donald Trump administration’s response to the great power competition, developments toward the “denuclearization” of the Korean Peninsula, the power base and policy issues of Xi Jinping’s second term, building of Japan’s “cross-domain” defense force, and the “Indo-Pacific” concepts of Australia and India. As part of the NIDS editorial policy, EASR lists the names of the authors responsible for each chapter and provides chapter notes indicating information sources, so as to further strengthen its standing as a scholarly text founded on analyses personally made by its contributing researchers. It also adds a wide array of supplementary material to further enhance general readers’ understanding of East Asian security, including figures, tables, photos, sidebars, and a list of abbreviations. EASR 2019 represents NIDS researchers’ analyses and descriptions of major security-related developments that took place mainly during the period from January through December 2018, and is based on information compiled from open sources in Japan and overseas. The statements contained herein do not necessarily represent the official position of the Government of Japan or the Ministry of Defense. The titles and ranks of people mentioned herein are, in principle, those that were current at the time of the events described. This edition was written by: Shinji Hyodo (Introduction); Marie Izuyama and Yusuke Ishihara (Chapter 1); Yasuyuki Sugiura and Masayuki Masuda (Chapter 2); Takeshi Watanabe and Osamu Koike (Chapter 3); Yoshihide Matsuura and Hideo Tomikawa (Chapter 4); Hiroshi Yamazoe, Shigeki Akimoto, and Yoshiaki Sakaguchi (Chapter 5); Sugio Takahashi (Chapter 6); and Tomohiko i Satake and Yuji Maeda (Chapter 7). It was edited by Shigeki Akimoto, Sukeyuki Ichimasa, Hiroshi Iwamoto, Hiroaki Enta, Junichi Oshite, Masahiro Kurita, Ichiro Takahashi, Takeyuki Hasegawa, Yuji Maeda, and Yuko Manabe. As the world’s interest gravitates toward strategic trends in East Asia, it is our hope that EASR will help build interest in and understanding of the East Asian strategic environment and will serve as food for intelligent discussion aimed at helping Japan to make better security policy decisions. April 2019 Shinji Hyodo EASR 2019 Editor-in-chief Director, Regional Studies Department ii Contents Preface ........................................................................................................................... i List of Abbreviations ...................................................................................................vi Introduction: East Asia in 2018 A Severer Strategic Environment and Japan’s Response ...............1 1. Trump Administration and the Great Power Competition ................................................2 2. Developments Toward the “Denuclearization” of the Korean Peninsula .........................2 3. The Power Base and Policy Issues of Xi Jinping’s Second Term .....................................3 4. Building of Japan’s “Cross-Domain” Defense Force .......................................................4 5. The Indo-Pacific Concept of Australia and India ..............................................................5 Chapter 1 Australia, India and the Indo-Pacific Concept .....................................7 1. Australia, India and the Indo-Pacific Concept ..................................................................9 2. Australia’s Perception of the Indo-Pacific ......................................................................14 (1) The End of a US-Centered Order ..........................................................................14 (2) Worsening Australia-China Relations....................................................................16 (3) Network Diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific ................................................................22 3. India’s Perception of the Indo-Pacific .............................................................................27 (1) “Indian Ocean Region”: Arena for Playing a Major Power Role ..........................27 (2) Enhancing Engagement in Indian Ocean Island Countries ...................................31 (3) Strengthening Partnership with ASEAN Countries ...............................................34 Chapter 2 China: The Start of Xi Jinping’s Second Term ..................................43 1. Strengthening of Xi Jinping’s Authority Through Personnel Changes, Institutional and Organizational Reforms, and Anti-Corruption Campaign ...................45 (1) Unprecedented Personnel Appointments in Line with Xi’s Intentions ..................45 (2) Institutional and Organizational Reforms of Party and State Organs Including Constitutional Amendments .................................................................................46 (3) Continuation of Anti-Corruption Campaign ..........................................................48 2. The Geopolitics of Chinese Foreign Policy ....................................................................50 (1) Xi Jinping’s Reorientation of Foreign Policy Approach .......................................50 (2) Deteriorating Sino-US Relations ...........................................................................52 (3) Proactive Neighboring Diplomacy ........................................................................57 3. Deepening National Defense and Military Reform and PLA’s Modernization from the Perspective of Training and Equipment ...........................................................61 (1) Progress in Military Reform at National People’s Congress .................................61 (2) Strengthening of Training Structure and Implementation of Exercises ...............63 (3) Advances in Arms Modernization .........................................................................66 iii Chapter 3 The Korean Peninsula: Prospects of the “Denuclearization” Negotiations .............................73 1. North Korea: Nuclear Program and Negotiations ...........................................................75 (1) “Denuclearization” that Sustains Nuclear Weapons ..............................................75 (2) Are “Security Guarantees” Consistent with Non-Proliferation? ..........................78 (3) Peace Regime as an External Asset .......................................................................81 2. South Korea: Efforts for Overcoming the “Division System” ........................................87 (1) Three Inter-Korean Summits and Progress in North-South Relations ..........................87 (2) Building of Peace Regime and US-ROK Alliance ...............................................90 (3) Prospects of “Defense Reform 2.0” .......................................................................94 Chapter 4 Southeast Asia: Readjusting External Relations .............................101 1. Regional Cooperation Trends and Security Issues ........................................................103 (1) ASEAN’s Policy Trends Over the South China Sea Issue ..................................103 (2) New Developments Related to Regional Cooperation and Joint Exercises ........107 2. Developments on Democratization and National Security ........................................... 111 (1) Malaysia: First-ever Change of Government