NONSTATE ARMED GROUPS' USE of DECEPTION a Thesis

STRATAGEM IN ASYMMETRY: NONSTATE ARMED GROUPS’ USE OF DECEPTION A Thesis Presented to the Faculty of The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy By DEVIN DUKE JESSEE In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy AUGUST 2011 Dissertation Committee Dr. Richard H. Shultz, Jr. (The Fletcher School), Chair Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr. (The Fletcher School), Reader Dr. Rohan K. Gunaratna (Rajaratnam School of International Studies), Reader CURRICULUM VITAE DEVIN D. JESSEE EDUCATION THE FLETCHER SCHOOL , TUFTS UNIVERSITY MEDFORD , MA Ph.D. Candidate in International Relations Current • Dissertation title: “Stratagem in Asymmetry: Nonstate Armed Groups’ Use of Deception” • Fields of study: international security, negotiation/conflict resolution, and international organizations. Comprehensive exams passed in May 2006. M.A. in Law and Diplomacy May 2005 • Thesis title: “Strengthening the Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons Nonproliferation Regimes” • Fields of study: international security and negotiation/conflict resolution BRIGHAM YOUNG UNIVERSITY PROVO , UT B.A. in International Politics (Minor in History) August 2003 summa cum laude ACADEMIC HONORS FLETCHER SCHOLARSHIP 2003 – 2004, 2007 – 2011 • Awarded by The Fletcher School based on merit and need. EISENHOWER -ROBERTS FELLOWSHIP 2008 – 2009 • Awarded to Ph.D. students from selected universities to support the intellectual growth of potential leaders. TUFTS UNIVERSITY PROVOST FELLOWSHIP 2005 – 2007 • Awarded to a small number of outstanding Tufts doctoral students. iii H. B. EARHART FELLOWSHIP 2003 – 2006 • Intended to encourage young academics to pursue careers in a social science or the humanities. FRANK ROCKWELL BARNETT FELLOWSHIP 2004 – 2006 • Awarded by the International Security Studies Program at The Fletcher School for academic excellence. SASAKAWA FELLOWSHIP 2004 – 2005 • The Ryoichi Sasakawa Young Leaders Fellowship is awarded to outstanding students with a high potential for leadership. VALEDICTORIAN , BYU DEPT . OF POLITICAL SCIENCE 2003 CANDIDATE , RHODES SCHOLARSHIP 2002 BYU HERITAGE SCHOLARSHIP 1997 – 2003 • A full tuition scholarship awarded to a small number of incoming BYU freshmen that distinguished themselves in high school. PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE ANALYST WASHINGTON , DC United States Federal Government May 2004 – Present INSTRUCTOR MEDFORD , MA Tufts University September – November 2005 • Taught an eight-week course on WMD proliferation for Tufts University’s Osher Institute for Lifelong Learning. RESEARCH /T EACHER ’S ASSISTANT PROVO , UT BYU Department of Political Science August 2002 – August 2003 • Helped conduct a nationwide electronic survey of over 1000 high school teachers to research the extent and effects of international politics instruction in U.S. secondary schools. • Created a course outline for using Homer’s Odyssey as a text for analysis in political philosophy. • Helped organize a conference of scholars on improving pedagogy of general education. • Teacher’s assistant for Theories of International Relations, Philosophy of Law, Introduction to Western Political Thought, and Introduction to American Government. iv MEDIA PROJECT MANAGER PROVO , UT KBYU Television October 2000 – August 2002 • Supervised the creation of 41 video and film projects for nonprofit community and government organizations. • Worked as an intermediate between the production studio and the public. RESEARCH AND LIAISON INTERN KIEV , UKRAINE Center for Religious Info. and Freedom June – August 2001 • Researched issues of religious tolerance, translated Russian documents, taught English, and helped organize a weeklong conference on religious tolerance for university-aged students. NATIONAL OLYMPIC COMMITTEE ASST . SALT LAKE CITY , UT 2002 Winter Olympics, Asst. to the Republic of Uzbekistan October 2000 – March 2002 • Interpreted Russian, assisted the athletes at venues, conducted tours and office work, and acted as a liaison between the team and the Salt Lake Organizing Committee. CHURCH REPRESENTATIVE EASTERN UKRAINE The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints January 1998 – February 2000 • Taught religion and engaged in community service and humanitarian aid. • Served as an English instructor and interpreter. • Supervised approximately 115 volunteers. AUTHORED WORKS PUBLISHED WORK • Devin D. Jessee, “Tactical Means, Strategic Ends: Al Qaeda's Use of Denial and Deception,” Terrorism and Political Violence 18, no. 3 (Fall 2006): 367–88, doi: 10.1080 /09546550600751941. MASTERS THESIS • “Strengthening the Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons Nonproliferation Regimes,” January 18, 2005, available at http://fletcher.tufts.edu/research/2005/Jessee1.pdf. SELECTED GRADUATE SCHOOL MANUSCRIPTS • “Deception as an Element of Strategy: A Literature Review,” manuscript for Independent Study on Deception Literature, The Fletcher School, December 15, 2005. v • “Negotiating with Terrorists: Past Insights and Future Implications,” manuscript for Independent Study on Negotiating with Terrorists, The Fletcher School, November 5, 2005. • “Al-Qaeda’s Use of Denial and Deception,” manuscript for Seminar on U.S. Intelligence, Terrorism, and National Security, The Fletcher School, December 4, 2004. • “Strengthening the International Nonproliferation Regime,” manuscript for Seminar on Proliferation-Counterproliferation and Homeland Security Issues, The Fletcher School, May 3, 2004. • “International Organizations as Mechanisms of Prevention: The Role of International Organizations in Crisis Management,” manuscript for Seminar on Crisis Management and Complex Emergencies, The Fletcher School, December 9, 2003. • “Technology and Transnational Organized Crime,” manuscript for Seminar on Technology and International Security, The Fletcher School, December 9, 2003. vi ABSTRACT The primary question this dissertation seeks to answer is: What factors affect whether nonstate armed groups (NSAGs) employ deception and what kind of deception strategy they target against an adversary? The thesis proposes the endgame theory of deception, which is called such because it argues that for NSAGs engaging in deception, outcome is more important than process, planners, or target levels, and NSAGs sometimes use tactical or operational measures to achieve strategic results. The theory states that given an NSAG’s aim to use deception against a state target, then five requirements summarized by Abram Shulsky—strategic coherence, an understanding of the target, an infrastructure to coordinate deception and security, channels to feed false information, and the ability to receive feedback—as well as the target’s counterdeception capabilities and the threat presented to the NSAG by the target are the primary factors that affect whether the NSAG can engage in behaviorally targeted deception (BTD) or status quo deception (SQD), two new models proposed as part of the theory, and the likelihood it will use one deception type over the other. With BTD, the deceiver employs deception to change a target’s behavior. In SQD, the deceiver employs deceptive tactics to keep an adversary on a status quo course until the deceiver can affect a chosen end. vii This study tests these propositions against al Qaeda’s, Hezbollah’s, and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam’s use of deception in historical cases. The study’s findings suggest that if an NSAG fulfills Shulsky’s requirements, it will be able to engage in deception; however, to use SQD, it can maintain less robust channeling and feedback capabilities than would often be needed for BTD. The paper finds that weak target counterdeception helps make deception possible for the NSAG, and also concludes that the threat level presented by the target to the NSAG is the primary variable that determines what kind of deception—BTD or SQD—the NSAG chooses; high threat appears to increase incentives for the NSAG to turn to BTD. This work is intended to add to the academic literature about deception and to propose a theory that national security scholars and practitioners can use to help predict when and what types of deception an NSAG adversary could use in the current era of asymmetric warfare. viii To my love Keri. Thank you for all your support. And to Ruth Ann and Lizzie, who waited patiently while Dad did his homework. Now we can play. ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I thank several entities that provided, either directly to me or indirectly through the Fletcher School, generous funding that helped during my doctoral studies: the Eisenhower Institute; the H. B. Earhart Foundation and my Earhart sponsor, Dr. Noel B. Reynolds at Brigham Young University; the Sarah Scaife Foundation; and The Fletcher School and Tufts University. I thank the scholars and practitioners who allowed me to interview or consult with them in person, on the telephone, or via e-mail: Dr. Tom Marks at the National Defense University; Dr. Matthew Levitt at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy; Dr. Rohan Gunaratna at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University (Singapore); Mr. Shanaka Jayasekara at the Centre for Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism, Macquarie University (Australia); and Mr. Ranapriya Abeyasinghe, at the International Center for Strategic Defense (Sri Lanka). I also thank Miriam Seltzer and Brian Hawkins for their assistance with formatting. Last, I thank the director of the Fletcher School Ph.D. program, Jenifer Burckett-Picker, and my dissertation committee—Drs. Richard Shultz, Robert Pfaltzgraff, and Rohan Gunaratna—for

Load more