Sobit Negmatullaev Geophysical Survey AS RT Geophysical Monitoring Near Large Dams in Tajikistan PEER Science Cycle 2 Geophysical Survey AS RT Dushanbe, [email protected] Sobit Negmatullaev 59 Shevchenko str., Dushanbe, Tajikistan [email protected] Dushanbe, 734025 Printed On: 4 December 2012 PEER Science Cycle 2 1 Sobit Negmatullaev Geophysical Survey AS RT Application Form Report Fields Project name* Geophysical Monitoring Near Large Dams in Tajikistan Total budget* $180,000.00 Country* Choose from the list of eligible countries. If your country is only listed in the special categories list, please choose "Special category" at the bottom of the list. Tajikistan Special categories (if applicable) Please check the category that applies. If your country is already listed as eligible (see above), it is not required that your project fall within one of these categories to be eligible for review. If none of these categories applies, you can leave this question answered or choose "none". None Primary field of research* Applicants are encouraged to consult the list of projects funded in Cycle 1 of PEER Science for examples of the topics and types of projects supported. Disaster mitigation If you chose "other", please list below your primary field of research. Proposals focused on basic science topics without clear relevance to USAID development objectives are strongly discouraged. N/A Secondary field of research Please list a secondary field of research, if any. Seismology Principal investigator* Sobit Negmatoullaev E-mail of principal investigator* [email protected] Telephone number* 992372219161 Printed On: 4 December 2012 PEER Science Cycle 2 2 Sobit Negmatullaev Geophysical Survey AS RT Co-PI(s) If any None Principal investigator's institution* Geophysical Survey of the Academy of Sciences of Republic of Tajikistan Address of principal investigator's institution* Sobit Negmatoullaev Director Geophysical Survey Academy of Sciences Republic of Tajikistan 59, Shevchenko Str. Dushanbe. 734025 Republic of Tajikistan Is your project a single institution or multiple institution project?* Single institution awards are anticipated to range in size from $30,000 to $60,000 per year for one to three years. A few larger and more complex projects (those involving multiple institutions and/or multiple countries, with one of them serving as the lead) may receive up to $110,000 per year for up to three years. Single institutition Other developing country institutions involved ( If any) None Proposed start date for your PEER Science proposal* Please provide the date in (Month/Day/Year) format. Please be advised that decions will not be made before May, 2013 07/01/2013 Proposed end date for your PEER Science proposal* Please provide the date in (Month/Day/Year) format. In order for a PEER Science proposal to be considered eligible for review, its requested duration may not extend more than twelve months beyond the official termination date of the U.S. partner’s NSF award that is effective at the time the PEER Science proposal is submitted 06/30/2016 U.S. partner* David Simpson and Timothy Ahern U.S. partner's institution* The IRIS Consortium U.S. partner's e-mail [email protected] Title of U.S. partner's NSF award* Facilitating New Discoveries in Seismology and Exploring the Earth: The Next Decade Printed On: 4 December 2012 PEER Science Cycle 2 3 Sobit Negmatullaev Geophysical Survey AS RT U.S. partner's NSF award number* EAR-1063471 End date of your U.S. partner's NSF award* Please provide the date in (Month/Day/Year) format. 12/31/2014 You may save your application as a draft at any time and resume it later. To do so, please scroll down and click on the "Save as Draft" button at the bottom of the application page. Please do not use the back button or you will lose any unsaved information. To avoid any inconvenience, remember to save regularly while working on your application. For further instructions on each question, please consult the program instructions. II- Project Summary Please fill out both sections of the summary: scientific merit and development impact. There is a limit of 2500 characters for each section. The summary should be written so that readers without technical expertise can understand it. It should briefly and clearly state the goals of the project and the proposed activities that will be carried out to achieve them. The summary should also explain the role of the proposed U.S. collaborator and describe the anticipated outcomes of the project, including scientific merit (part 1) as well as development-related impacts (part 2). In describing these impacts, the specific focus should be on how the project relates to USAID’s programmatic interests. 2.a) Scientific merit* Current world practice requires a probabilistic estimation of the seismic hazard for important structures, including dams. But seismic hazard estimation of a series of dams needs the probabilistic estimation of seismic hazard for a large area. Estimation of seismic hazard not only relies heavily on data collected in the region immediately surrounding important infrastructure, but also on a more general understanding of the regional tectonic setting and the location and loading of important faults. These details are not well understood in Tajikistan. In general, a single hydroelectric power plant (HPP) is constructed according to design rules and rates of exploitation taking into account the level of seismic hazard of the area. However, the planning for the seismic safety of a whole series of dams is absent in design standards. For instance, the design rule of seismic risk for a single dam can be very low, but the relationships between two dams can entail a higher risk for both HPPs, and for the whole series of HPPs. Therefore, the seismic hazard estimation for the entire area containing several large dams is a new technical approach and will allow reduction of the seismic risk for the entire system.The findings and suitable methodology and recommendations can be used in other countries around the world. The outcome of this project will allow seismic monitoring based on up-to-date equipment, including digital broad-band seismic stations with satellite links for data transmission that will provide information about seismic processes around the series of large dams in real-time, and around the Rogun HPP’s reservoir especially. The Project Directors will make all data recorded as part of this project open and available in real time. IRIS operates the largest seismic data center for this kind of data in the world and all seismic data will flow in real time to IRIS and be available for use and study by international experts around the world. The studies enabled by completion of the proposed project will contribute to the understanding of the complex tectonics of the Central Asia region, and the assessment of seismic risk that threatens the populations in this important region. The proposed infrastructure will also facilitate research in the emerging field of induced seismicity, which has enormous repercussions for current and projected practices of energy extraction and production in emerging economies and throughout the world. Printed On: 4 December 2012 PEER Science Cycle 2 4 Sobit Negmatullaev Geophysical Survey AS RT 2.b) Development impacts* The proposed project will impact economic development of Tajikistan at multiple levels. The proposed expansion of seismic monitoring capability at Rogun dam in Tajikistan will contribute to the rational and safe development and operation of hydroelectric capacity, and to the development of important renewable energy sources in Central Asia. Information derived from monitoring of large dams (Nurek and Rogun) in the region will add to a rapidly growing area of seismology, the study of induced seismicity. Understanding induced seismicity has broad implications not only in the Central Asia region, but also in many countries around the world where accelerated economic development is associated with dramatic increases in energy demands, and the search for alternative or enhanced fossil fuel extraction such as hydraulic fracturing, or renewable sources, such as large hydroelectric infrastructure. Beyond contributing to a specific early development marker, (energy independence), the proposed project will provide a unique opportunity for close interaction, collaboration and substantial knowledge transfer between the geoscientist community in Tajikistan and the U.S. Support provided by this award will extend long-standing collaborations between IRIS senior staff and the Geological Survey of Tajikistan and leverage one of the largest NSF Cooperative Agreements, allowing the seamless integration of Tajik scientists in state-of-the-art activities, facilities and practices of the international seismology community. Remember to save regularly using the "Save as Draft" button at the bottom of the page. For further instructions on each question, please consult the program instructions. III-Project Description Please address each section of the proposal description concisely (within the character limit). If needed, you may also upload figures and/or tables as an annex at the end of this application. Please reference each figure in the text. Incomplete proposals and those not submitted in the required format will not be considered. 3.a) Background and rationale* Two billion people in the world do not have electricity. This critical development need is been successfully addressed through renewable energy sources, such as hydroelectric power. Yet, over the past few decades, important questions have been arised regarding safety standards and establishment of priorities of multiuse dams serving irrigation and power production needs. The construction of high dams and their associated large reservoirs has revealed a new problem, reservoir triggered seismicity (RTS). In addition to the impounding of large reservoirs, induced (or triggered) seismicity has been associated with deep mining and injection of fluids into the Earth’s crust for enhanced hydrocarbon extraction, geothermal energy generation, and waste disposal.