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Impact of Rogun Dam on Downstream Uzbekistan Agriculture

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Impact of Rogun Dam on Downstream Uzbekistan Agriculture IMPACT OF ROGUN DAM ON DOWNSTREAM UZBEKISTAN AGRICULTURE A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the North Dakota State University of Agriculture and Applied Science By Shokhrukh-Mirzo Jalilov In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Major Program: Natural Resources Management May 2010 Fargo, North Dakota ii ABSTRACT Jalilov, Shokhrukh-Mirzo, M.S., Natural Resources Management Program, College of Graduate and Interdisciplinary Studies, North Dakota State University, May 2010. Impact of Rogun Dam on Downstream Uzbekistan Agriculture. Major Professor: Dr. Dr. Tom M. DeSutter. Strains among the states of Central Asia caused by overuse of the region’s scarce water resources have been increasing in recent years. This is especially true for the relations between Tajikistan, upstream, and Uzbekistan, downstream, on the Amudarya River. Major controversy exists over constructing Rogun Dam on the Vakhsh River, a tributary of the Amudarya River. Construction of Rogun Dam, with a planned height of 335 m (1099 ft), began in 1976 but was stopped in 1991 with the breakup of the former Soviet Union. The intent of this dam is to supply Tajikistan with energy, but a side effect will be the changed flow regime of the Amudarya River to downstream states (especially Uzbekistan). The major impact will be on the agricultural sector of Uzbekistan. The objectives of this study are to estimate the monetary impacts of Rogun Dam and propose mitigation measures to minimize impacts. The study investigates the nature and extent of those impacts and indicates policy implications to mitigate negative consequences of the possible water shortage in summer by assessing the baseline situation and comparing that situation with future status-quo (no changes) level of water. Future water shortage could cost Uzbekistan annually over US $609 million economic loss in agriculture, reduce the country’s GDP by 2.2%, and result in 336,000 unemployed people. If Uzbekistan changes its present water use practice and increases water use efficiency, the future water shortage during irrigation periods will not as seriously affect the country’s economy, as adaptive management measures could cut the losses by 40%. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This thesis would not have been possible without the support, encouragement and endless efforts of a large number of people. I am deeply indebted to my supervisors, Dr. Jay A. Leitch and Dr. Tom M. DeSutter, who gave me the opportunity to complete my study; their suggestions and encouragement helped me in completing research and writing this thesis. The preparation of this thesis would not have been successful without the facilitation of my graduate committee members, Dr. Dean Steele and Dr. Garry Clambey, who supported and encouraged me to go ahead with my research. I want to thank the U. S. Department of State for giving me the opportunity to study in the USA and commence this thesis as a Muskie fellow. My colleagues from the NDSU Soil Testing Laboratory supported me during my study. I want to thank them for all their help, support, interest and valuable hints. Especially, I am obliged to Larry Swenson, Dave Olson, and Kristin Newman. I also want to thank Keri DeSutter for editing the final version of the thesis for English style and grammar and offering suggestions for improvement. Especially, I would like to give my special thanks to my father and mother in Uzbekistan, my wife Donokhon, and my daughters Shokhina and Shokhzoda whose patient love enabled me to complete this important work. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS........................................................................................................ iv LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................... vii LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................ viii LIST OF BOXES ...................................................................................................................... ix LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................................. x CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 1 Problem statement ......................................................................................................... 1 Research goals ............................................................................................................... 3 Research methods .......................................................................................................... 3 Thesis organization ....................................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER 2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE AND BACKGROUND ............................... 6 Development of water resources management in the Central Asian states ................ 12 Soviet Union period ................................................................................................. 13 Independent period .................................................................................................. 15 Current status of water resources management in the region ..................................... 19 Principles of transboundary water management in the region ................................ 19 Present situation in the study area ........................................................................... 22 Impact assessment of large dams ................................................................................ 24 CHAPTER 3. METHODS AND ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................ 28 Current situation as a baseline condition .................................................................... 28 Rogun Reservoir filling stage...................................................................................... 30 Rogun Reservoir electricity generation mode ............................................................. 37 Estimation of monetary impacts under “worst case” scenario .................................... 40 Estimation of monetary impacts under “adaptive” scenario ....................................... 43 v TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) CHAPTER 4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ................................................................... 47 Rogun Reservoir filling stage...................................................................................... 47 Rogun Reservoir full operation mode ......................................................................... 49 Estimation of monetary impacts under “worst case” scenario .................................... 51 Estimation of monetary impacts under “adaptive” scenario ....................................... 52 CHAPTER 5. SUMMARY AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS .......................................... 57 Worst case ................................................................................................................... 58 Adaptive case .............................................................................................................. 59 Policy implications ...................................................................................................... 59 REFERENCES CITED .................................................................................................. 62 vi LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Land resources of the Aral Sea basin ......................................................................... 8 2. Surface water resources in the Aral Sea basin (mean annual runoff, km3/year) ...... 12 3. Water flow (km3) in the Aral Sea basin watershed ................................................... 20 4. Examples of socioeconomic factors and their potential changes resulting from project implementation .............................................................................................25 5. Mean monthly water flow of the Vakhsh and Amudarya Rivers (km3) ................... 29 6. Total and average seasonal water flow of the Vakhsh and Amudarya Rivers jjnjugvv (km3) ......................................................................................................................... 29 7. Characteristics of Nurek and Rogun Reservoirs ....................................................... 30 8. Total land area and agricultural land area, by regions of Uzbekistan jksssdsvdkoszd (as of January 1, 2005; thousand hectares) ............................................................... 32 9. Comparison of economic gross margin (irrigated crops) ......................................... 42 10. Possible reduction of Uzbekistan water use during Rogun Dam filling ................... 53 11. Comparison of impacts under two outcomes............................................................ 55 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1. Water use and prospective requirements, Amudarya River (million m3/yr) .............. 3 2. Natural surface flow in the Amudarya River basin (mean annual runoff, %) ............................................................................................. 3 3. Map of Central Asia .................................................................................................... 6 4. Aral Sea basin ............................................................................................................
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