Broxbourne, Dacorum, Hertsmere, St. Albans, Three Rivers, Watford and Welwyn Hatfield Councils HERTFORDSHIRE LONDON ARC JOBS GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT LAND Volume 2 Appendices March 2009 ROGER TYM & PARTNERS Fairfax House 15 Fulwood Place London WC1V 6HU t (020) 7831 2711 f (020) 7831 7653 e
[email protected] w www.tymconsult.com This document is formatted for double‐sided printing. P1850 CONTENTS VOLUME 1 – FINAL REPORT VOLUME 2 – APPENDICES Appendix 1 – Note on Forecasting Appendix 2 – Previous Site Assessments Appendix 3 ‐ Commitments Data Appendix 4 – Business Space Sectors Appendix 5 – Land Supply & Demand 06‐31 Appendix 6 – Workshop Notes APPENDIX ONE Note on Forecasting FORECASTING METHOD The model used in generating employment forecasts for this report was developed in 2007 for EEDA. Known as the East of England Forecasting model, it is a computer-based set of data for the common variables and a system for modelling the inter-relationships between these variables, with the capacity to generate forecasts and scenarios for each the variables at regional and local scales. The model is constructed primarily on an Excel spreadsheet and can thus be run on any personal computer. The economic relationships underpinning the model were primarily derived from Oxford Economics commercially available Regional Economic Model. Additional estimation at a local level was carried out for this project and applied to the Excel model. A full description of the model is contained in the final report for the EEDA project ‘East of England: Joint Modelling for the RES and RSS’, on the EEDA website at www.eeda.org.uk/files/Joint_RES-RSS_modelling_final.pdf.