What Are the Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Ungulate

Malpeli et al. Environ Evid (2020) 9:21 https://doi.org/10.1186/s13750-020-00204-w Environmental Evidence

SYSTEMATIC MAP PROTOCOL Open Access What are the efects of climate variability and change on ungulate life‑histories, population dynamics, and migration in North America? A systematic map protocol Katherine C. Malpeli1* , Sarah R. Weiskopf1, Laura Thompson1 and Amanda R. Hardy2

Abstract Background: Climate is an important driver of ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors, and can afect the growth, development, fecundity, dispersal, and demographic trends of populations. Changes in temperature and precipitation, and resulting shifts in plant phenology, winter severity, drought and wildfre conditions, invasive species distribution and abundance, predation, and disease have the potential to directly or indirectly afect ungulates. However, ungulate responses to climate variability and change are not uniform and vary by species and geography. Here, we present a systematic map protocol aiming to describe the abundance and distribution of evidence on the efects of climate variability and change on ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in North America. This map will help to identify knowledge gaps and clusters of evidence, and can be used to inform future research directions and adaptive management strategies. Methods: We will catalogue evidence on how climate variability and change afect the life-histories, population dynamics, and migration patterns of the ffteen ungulate species native to North America. We will search both academic and grey literature, using academic journal databases and specialist websites. Articles will be screened for inclusion at the title/abstract and full-text levels, and data will be extracted from articles that pass the full-text review. These data will be summarized quantitatively, visually, and with a narrative review to describe the distribution and abundance of evidence on the efects of climate variability and change on ungulates in North America. Keywords: Global change, Climate impacts, Weather, Ungulate management, Ungulate ecology

Background in grasslands [3, 4]. Ungulates are also economically Native ungulate species occupy a diversity of habitats and culturally important in North America, provid- across North America, from Canada’s high arctic to the ing recreational and subsistence hunting opportunities deserts of Mexico [1]. Trough their herbivory, wild and non-consumptive, aesthetic values. For example, in ungulates play an important ecological role, regulat- 2016, 8.1 million people hunted deer (Odocoileus spp.) ing processes such as nutrient cycling in temperate for- in the United States, and 0.7 million hunted elk (Cervus ests [2] and plant productivity and habitat heterogeneity canadensis) [5]. However, the management of sustain- able and robust ungulate populations in North America is challenged by a number of anthropogenic and envi- *Correspondence: [email protected] ronmental threats that have the potential to impact indi- 1 National Climate Adaptation Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, viduals, populations, and the ability of ungulates to move Reston, VA, USA Full list of author information is available at the end of the article across the landscape [6]. Changes in habitat [7], climate

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conditions [8, 9], and predator communities [8] are of (Oreamnos americanus) [28], and desert bighorn sheep increasing concern to ungulate managers [10]. Of these, (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) [29] in the western U.S. an improved understanding of the efects of changing Te response of ungulates to climate variability and climate conditions has been highlighted as a key infor- change is not uniform and is likely mediated by local mation need [11–13]. Climatic variation occurs across processes and species-specifc traits [17], and the evi- multiple spatial and temporal scales, and understand- dence is not equally distributed among species and geog- ing the impacts of both short- and long-term changes raphies. Synthesizing the existing science on this topic will provide valuable information to wildlife and land will facilitate the identifcation of the range of climate- managers. Climate is an important driver of ungulate related impacts across ungulate species, populations, and life-history characteristics, population dynamics, and geographies, and highlight knowledge gaps and clusters migratory behaviors and changes in climate can directly that can support management decision-making. Here, or indirectly afect the growth, development, fecundity, we propose a systematic map of evidence relating to the dispersal, demographic trends, and long-term viability efects of climate variability and change on ungulate life- of populations [9, 13] as well as the timing and locations histories, population dynamics, and migration in North of migratory movements [14, 15]. Here, we use the term America. Tis review aims to bolster our understanding “climate variability” to refer to interannual or interdec- of how changes in climate conditions, whether occur- adal fuctuations in temperature and precipitation, and ring over short or long timescales, have already or could the term “climate change” to refer to persistent, multi- potentially impact ungulates. Tis goal will be achieved decadal deviations from long-term averages [16]. by cataloguing the evidence on how changes in climate Understanding the direct and indirect efects of climate and climate-related variables afect ungulate life-his- variability and change on ungulates will be an important tories, population dynamics, and migration across the consideration for efective ungulate management and continent. conservation in North America [13, 17], and a number of studies have begun to document these impacts. Direct Stakeholder engagement impacts can include changes in the costs of thermoreg- We began our process of identifying stakeholder needs ulation or locomotion [18], while indirect impacts can by reviewing a series of state wildlife management agency include shifts in forage quality and quantity [8]. Studies plans that outline key threats and priority research areas have documented, for example, that winter temperatures related to ungulate management. Tese plans were devel- can directly afect juvenile survival [19] and have popu- oped by 11 western U.S. states in 2018, following the sign- lation-level efects. For example, extreme winter tem- ing of Secretarial Order 3362,“Improving Habitat Quality peratures, increased snowfall, and more frequent winter in Western Big-Game Winter Range and Migration Cor- storms led to elk population reductions in Canada [20]. ridors”. Tis order, which focuses on elk, mule deer, and Precipitation and temperature, through their efects on pronghorn in 11 states, directs the U.S. Department of plant production and nutritional quality, can also directly the Interior’s land management bureaus to work in part- and indirectly afect ungulate life-history characteris- nership with state wildlife agencies to improve ungulate tics [21–23]. In Idaho, a longer autumn growing season winter range and migration corridor habitats. As part increased mule deer (O. hemionus) fawn overwinter of this efort, each participating state developed a State survival [24], while summer drought increased mortal- Action Plan outlining major threats and priorities related ity among Sonoran pronghorn (Antilocapra americana to ungulate migration corridors and winter range habitat. sonoriensis) in New Mexico [25]. In addition to commonly-cited challenges such as wild- Te efects of changes in the timing of spring green-up life-vehicle collisions and physical barriers to movement and winter severity, two key drivers of ungulate migration such as fences, many plans listed drought, wildfre, dis- in North America, have also been documented. Elk in the ease, and habitat conversion due to the spread of invasive Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem delayed departure from species as key threats to ungulates, and outlined a clear winter range habitat when spring green-up occurred later need for information that will enhance the understanding [15], mule deer in the Sierra Nevada migrated earlier in and protection of ungulate migration and use of range years with earlier green-up and low snow depth [14], habitat. and mule deer in Wyoming altered their use of stopover In addition, we contacted big game and habitat man- sites based on changes in plant phenology [26]. Lastly, agers from several state wildlife management agencies to there have been eforts to project the potential future better understand their priorities and information needs impacts of climate change on ungulates. For example, related to ungulate management. As part of these discus- studies have modeled the efects of climate change on sions, we inquired about their current understanding of population growth of pronghorn [27], mountain goat how climate variability and change afect ungulates, and Malpeli et al. Environ Evid (2020) 9:21 Page 3 of 9

whether additional information on this topic would sup- the Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa, port management planning. We also spoke to federal sci- and the Canadian province of Prince Edward Island will entists to identify relevant ongoing science activities, and be excluded from the review. Te ffteen ungulate spe- to receive input on the science needs related to ungulates cies are either not present on these islands or were intro- and climate change. Tis stakeholder input contributed duced and are non-native [33]. to the initial conceptualization of this study and helped defne the scope of the systematic map. Exposure Objective of the review Temporal changes in direct climate variables (i.e. temper- Tis systematic map will focus on the ffteen ungu- ature, precipitation) and their derivatives (e.g. snow, win- late species of the Order Artiodactyla native to North ter severity, drought); temporal, climate-related changes America [11]. We will describe the abundance and dis- in secondary variables (i.e. plant phenology, wildfre, tribution of evidence relating to the impacts of climate invasive species, disease, predation). variability and change on the life-history characteristics, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors of Comparator these species by gathering evidence on the topic from A comparison of at least two diferent time points, over across the continent. First, we will map the evidence on which there is a quantifed, inferred, or projected change the efects of seasonal, interannual, and interdecadal in a direct climate or secondary variable. changes in temperature and precipitation (hereafter referred to as “direct climate variables”) and their deriva- Outcome tives, such as drought, winter severity, and snow depth, Efect on individual life-history characteristics; popula- on ungulate ecology. Changes in direct climate variables tion dynamics; migratory behavior; spatial location or can also afect ungulates via changes in plant phenology quality of migration corridor, winter range, or summer [15, 30], wildfre [17, 31], invasive species [17], disease range habitat. [32], and predation [20]. Terefore, we will describe the evidence on how changes in these “secondary variables” afect ungulates in cases where they are linked to changes Methods in direct climate variables. We will also identify studies Te review will follow the Collaboration for Environmen- that project how future changes in climate could poten- tal Evidence Guidelines and Standards for Evidence Syn- tially impact ungulates in North America. Together, these thesis in Environmental Management [34], and conform tiers of evidence will enable the identifcation of knowl- to the ROSES reporting standards [35] (Additional fle 1). edge gaps and clusters on the topic of ungulates, climate variability, and climate change to inform future primary research directions and targeted systematic reviews. Searching for articles Te primary question for this systematic map is as fol- We will conduct this review using Web of Science and lows: What evidence exists on the efects of climate vari- Scopus, both of which are made available to the authors ability and change on ungulate life-histories, population via the U.S. Geological Survey’s subscriptions with the dynamics, and migration in North America? services. In Web of Science, the Science Citation Index Our research question can be broken down into the Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), part of the Web of Sci- following key elements, based on the PECO (Population, ence Core Collection, will be searched. SCI-EXPANDED Exposure, Comparator, Outcome) question framework: (1985-present) is the Core Collection citation index available to the authors via the U.S. Geological Survey. Population Te search will be run based on the “topic” feld, which All subspecies and populations of wild pronghorn, elk, includes article titles, abstracts, keywords, and “Key- mule deer, moose (Alces alces), bighorn sheep, white- Words Plus” (automatically generated terms pulled from tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), American bison the titles of cited articles). Our subscription service does (Bison bison), mountain goat, Dall sheep (Ovis dalli), not enable us to access articles published prior to 1985, muskox (Ovibos moschatus), caribou (Rangifer tarandus), so the timespan “all years (1985–2020)” will be selected. collared peccaries (Pecari tajacu), white-lipped peccaries In Scopus, article titles, abstracts, and keywords will be (Tayassu pecari), brown brocket deer (Mazama goua- searched using the search string outlined below, and zoupira), and red brocket deer (M. americana) in the all years of data will be searched. All searches will be U.S., Canada, or Mexico. Te state of Hawai’i, the U.S. conducted in English, and only English-language pub- territories of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, lications will be included in the review since this is the Malpeli et al. Environ Evid (2020) 9:21 Page 4 of 9

primary language of the reviewers. Search results will be “Pecari tajacu” OR “white-lipped peccar*” OR “Tayassu exported into both an Excel spreadsheet and a reference pecari” OR “brocket*” OR “brown brocket*” OR “Mazama management software, and duplicates will be removed. gouazoupira” OR “red brocket*” OR “Mazama americana”) AND ("climat*" OR "global warming" OR “weather” Search terms OR "temperature" OR "precipitation" OR "snow*" OR Te fnal Boolean search string is structured to capture “rain*” OR “ice” OR “icing” OR “drought” OR “heat” OR articles that pertain to the population variables and expo- “cold” OR “freez*” OR “winter severity” OR “phenology”)). sure to direct climate variables (and their derivatives) or to climate-related changes in secondary variables. Te Assessing retrieval performance scientifc and common names of each ungulate species With the exception of phenology, the remaining second- were included as search terms. Te terms “climat*” and ary variables – wildfre, invasives, disease, and predation “global warming” were included to capture articles spe- – were not included as search terms. For the second- cifcally focused on the impacts of climate variability ary variables, we are concerned only with studies that and change on ungulates. Te term “weather” was also attribute changes in a secondary variable (e.g. increased included, both because climate can be defned as the disease transmission) to a direct climate variable (e.g. average weather in a location, and because extreme cli- temperature), and examine the efects on ungulates (e.g. mate events such as severe icing or heat waves can also mortality). Te structure of our fnal search string inher- be characterized as extreme weather events and are rele- ently captures such articles, as the string is designed to vant to this review [16]. Terms for the direct climate vari- return any article that uses a population term and a direct ables (e.g. temperature, precipitation), as well as relevant climate variable term. For example, an article describing derivatives, were also added. Tese terms include snow, the impacts of a temperature-driven change in disease rain, ice, drought, heat, cold, freez*, and winter severity. transmission on mule deer would be captured by the While numerous additional derivatives of temperature fnal search string, due to the presence of the terms “mule and precipitation exist, such as daily snowfall, total rain- deer” and “temperature”. fall, or average daily temperature, these variables will be To test this assumption, we ran separate searches that captured by the existing terms in the search string and do included all population variables, direct climate variables, not need to be individually added as terms. and each of the four remaining secondary variables, one We also included one of the secondary variables, phe- at a time (Additional fle 2). We screened the titles and nology, as a search term. Plant phenology is a known abstracts of the frst 100 articles returned by each search, driver of ungulate migration in North America [36, 37] sorted by relevance in Web of Science, and identifed any and is inherently linked to climate, in particular to tem- relevant articles based on our study eligibility criteria perature [38, 39]. Due to this inherent link, our direct (Table 1). We then checked if these articles were returned climate variable terms may not be present in the title or by Web of Science when our fnal search string was run. abstract of relevant articles addressing ungulates and Te overall performance against the test list was 100% plant phenology, and as such could be missed by our for each variable tested, demonstrating that relevant arti- search string if phenology were not included as a term. cles on these topics will be captured by our search string, We did not include the additional secondary variables as and these variables do not need to be included as search search terms, based on the results of the scoping exer- terms. cises outlined in the following section. Te search string was also tested for overall sensitivity Te fnal search string, to be used in Web of Science by identifying a set of 30 articles known to be relevant to and Scopus, is as follows (in a Web of Science format): the authors (Additional fle 3), and checking if these arti- TS = (("mule deer" OR “black-tailed deer” OR “Odocoi- cles were returned by Web of Science and Scopus. Te leus hemionus” OR "white-tailed deer" OR “whitetail*” OR overall performance against the test list was 100% for “Odocoileus virginianus” OR "elk" OR “wapiti” OR “Cer- Web of Science and 93% for Scopus. vus canadensis” OR "pronghorn" OR “antelope” OR “Anti- locapra americana” OR "bighorn sheep" OR “mountain Additional search methods sheep” OR “Ovis canadensis” OR "moose" OR “Alces a*” Grey literature Grey literature will be identifed through OR “bison” OR “Bison bison” OR “Dall sheep” OR “Dall’s a combination of a Scopus search and hand-searches of sheep” OR “thinhorn sheep” OR “Ovis dalli” OR “moun- relevant organizational websites. We are using Scopus to tain goat” OR “Oreamnos americanus” OR “muskox*” identify both academic and grey literature and therefore OR “musk-ox*” OR “musk ox*” OR “Ovibos moschatus” will use the same search string as in Web of Science. No OR “caribou” OR “Rangifer tarandus” OR “collared pec- additional search strings will be used to identify grey lit- car*” OR “javelina*” OR “musk hog*” OR “musk-hog*” OR erature in Scopus. In addition to Scopus, the website of Malpeli et al. Environ Evid (2020) 9:21 Page 5 of 9 do not specify the temporal scale of the study do not specify the temporal not describe change in variables a temporal but do not link those changes in secondaryon ungulates, vari - variable climate changes in a direct ables to America (e.g. moose in northernAmerica (e.g. Europe) Articles a single point in time or those that that only use data from 1) Articles that describe space-for-time time comparisons and do 2) Articles exploring of changes in secondary the efects variables 1) Articles outside of North located on populations of ungulates 2) Articles populations of ungulates on domestic or non-native Exclude climate variables of climate-related changes climate or (2) the efects in secondary aspect variables life-history on any of ungulate or range migration, characteristics, population dynamics, habitats in North America (1) the efects of temporal changes in direct climate variables climate changes in direct of temporal (1) the efects of climate-related changes in or (2) the efects on ungulates, secondary variables on ungulates variables in North on ungulates America if the changes in secondaryables on ungulates, variables are variablelinked climate changes in a direct to America Articles of changes in direct that document (1) the efects Articles that use empirical describe to analyses or projections 1) Articles climate changes in direct of temporal on the efects 2) Articles changes in secondary of temporal on the efects vari - Articles in North ungulates wild population of native on any Include Study eligibility criteria Study migratory behavior; spatial location or quality of migration or summer range habitat range, winter corridor, over which there is a quantifed, inferred, or projected change or projected inferred, is a quantifed, which there over or secondaryin a direct climate variable derivatives predation) disease, white-tailed deer, American bison, mountain goat, Dall sheep, American bison, mountain goat, Dall sheep, white-tailed deer, white-lipped peccaries, muskox, collared caribou, peccaries, deer in North brocket and red America brocket deer, brown Outcome: Life-historyOutcome: characteristics; population dynamics; Comparator: A comparison of at least two diferent time points, time points, Comparator: A comparison of at least two diferent Exposure: and their precipitation) (temperature, 1. Direct climate variables species, invasive wildfre, 2. Secondary (plant phenology, variables Population: Pronghorn, elk, mule deer, moose, bighorn sheep, bighorn sheep, moose, elk, mule deer, Pronghorn, Population: 1 Table component PECO Malpeli et al. Environ Evid (2020) 9:21 Page 6 of 9

each state, provincial, and territorial wildlife manage- acceptable. In cases where the kappa result is less than ment agency in Canada and the U.S. will be searched to 0.61, the reviewers will discuss any diferences to ensure locate available technical reports on our focal species that screening criteria are being consistently applied. (Additional fle 4). Because our searches will be English- Consistency checking will be repeated until a kappa language only, we will not search the websites of Mexican result of 0.61 is achieved. If needed, the defnitions of the wildlife management agencies as part of our grey litera- eligibility criteria (Table 1) will be updated to improve ture search. While this may introduce geographical bias consistency among reviewers. Te remaining articles in our grey literature search results, the review team does will be divided for review amongst all but one co-author. not have the resources needed to conduct Spanish-lan- Te remaining co-author will serve as a second screener guage searches and to translate these articles. on all articles. Any inconsistencies among screeners, or If available, the built-in search functions of the organi- questions about whether an article meets screening cri- zation websites will be used and separate searches will teria, will be reviewed between co-authors. Reviewers be run for each relevant ungulate species. For example, that have authored an article under consideration will the website for Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks will be be recused from decisions regarding the eligibility of the searched using the terms “bighorn sheep”, “bison”, “cari- article. bou”, “elk”, “moose”, “mountain goat”, “mule deer”, “pronghorn”, and “white-tailed deer”, as each of these species Study validity assessment is currently or has historically been found in the state. A formal study validity assessment will not be carried out Te terms used to search each website will be recorded. as part of this efort. Te websites will also be hand-searched to locate pages containing agency reports and publications. Articles Data coding strategy acquired during this process will be downloaded and During the full-text review process, information on each included in the list of articles subject to the full-text relevant article will be extracted and entered into an review. Excel spreadsheet database. In addition to documenting basic bibliographic information for each article, we will Review articles Relevant review articles will not be record information on the species and population stud- accepted directly into the review. Instead, we will exam- ied, the geographic location of the study, and the tempo- ine the primary sources cited in review articles and ensure ral scale over which the analysis was completed. We will that any appropriate sources are captured and subjected document any relevant direct climate or secondary vari- to the title and abstract review. ables to which the study population was exposed, and the outcome variables that were analyzed. If information is Article screening and study eligibility criteria missing or unclear in an article, we will email the authors A two-stage screening process will be implemented to to request the additional information. If the authors do identify relevant articles from the deduplicated set of not respond, or do not provide clarifcation, the article search results. Te frst phase will involve a review of the will be excluded from the analysis. Information extracted article titles and abstracts. Tis phase will be completed will include: using the open access web-based platform Colandr, a machine-learning tool that allows for iterative sorting of • Bibliographic information relevant and irrelevant articles [40]. All articles deemed relevant during this phase will then be subjected to a full- – Study ID (unique numeric ID assigned to each arti- text review. In cases of uncertainty, the reviewers will cle) include the paper. Data will be coded and extracted from – Coder ID (unique ID assigned to each reviewer) all articles deemed relevant during the full-text review – Citation information phase. At each stage, the number of excluded articles, – Literature type (academic, grey) and the reason for exclusion, will be documented. A list of articles excluded during the full-text review, with rea- • Study design sons for exclusion, will be provided as an additional fle. • Temporal scale At the onset of the title and abstract review stage, each reviewer will assess the eligibility of a random subset of – Study start and end dates 100 articles and the level of agreement, or interrater reli- – Study duration ability, will be tested using the Fleiss Kappa statistic [41]. A kappa result of ≥ 0.61 indicates a substantial level of • Population information agreement between reviewers [42] and will be considered Malpeli et al. Environ Evid (2020) 9:21 Page 7 of 9

– Study location (country, state/province, site name by population (i.e. species) and outcome (i.e. life-history and location, habitat type, climate zone) characteristics vs. population dynamics vs. migration). – Species and subspecies An evidence atlas showing the spatial location of each – Demographic information (age and sex class) study containing discrete location information will also be produced. • Exposure variables Together, the narrative, tables, and fgures will serve as a mechanism for recognizing knowledge gaps and – Direct climate variables (temperature, precipita- knowledge clusters on the efects of climate variabil- tion) ity and change on ungulates in North America. Iden- – Direct climate variable derivatives tifed knowledge gaps may represent topics for future – Secondary variables (plant phenology, wildfre, primary research, while knowledge clusters may rep- invasive species, disease, predation) resent areas ripe for targeted systematic reviews. Te full database containing the information extracted from • Comparator (type, temporal scale) each study will be made available for download. • Outcome components and subcomponents meas- ured Supplementary information – Individual life-history characteristics Supplementary information accompanies this paper at https://doi. org/10.1186/s13750-020-00204-w. Subcomponents: individual growth (e.g. body mass, nutritional condition), reproduction Additional fle 1. ROSES form. – Population dynamics Additional fle 2. Scoping exercises completed to determine inclusion/ Subcomponents: abundance, population exclusion of secondary variable terms in fnal search string. growth, long-term viability, survival, distribu- Additional fle 3. Results of the sensitivity testing of the fnal search string tion, structure, density, productivity, recruit- and the list of articles used to test the sensitivity of the search string. ment Additional fle 4. List of management agency websites to be hand- – Migration searched for grey literature. Subcomponents: behavior and movement patterns; range, corridor, and stopover habitat loca- Acknowledgements tion and quality We thank B. Miller for providing feedback on this manuscript. We will employ several mechanisms to ensure repeat- Authors’ contributions ability and consistency in data coding. First, each data KM conceived of the original research question, wrote the frst draft of this feld will have a clear defnition of the information paper, and led the research team. All authors contributed to refning the intended for that feld and the required format for data research question and study design and edited subsequent drafts. All authors read and approved the fnal manuscript. entry. Wherever possible, drop-down lists will be used to improve consistency in data entry. Additionally, at Funding the onset of the data entry phase, each team member This work is funded by the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Adapta- tion Science Center. Any use of trade, frm, or product names is for descriptive will independently review and enter data for the same 10 purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. articles. Any diferences in data entry will be discussed and reconciled, and the database felds will be updated Availability of data and materials No datasets were generated or analyzed during the preparation of the proto- if needed. Lastly, a second reviewer will independently col. All data that will be used for the review will be made freely available upon review and enter data for a subset of 10% of all articles the publication of the review. that pass the title and abstract phase. Any inconsistencies Ethics approval and consent to participate in the extracted information will be discussed and recon- Not applicable. ciled, and the extraction methodology will be refned if needed. Consent for publication Not applicable.

Study mapping and presentation Competing interests The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Te fnal systematic map will be synthesized in a narrative review. Te synthesis will include summary tables Author details 1 National Climate Adaptation Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, and fgures of the study characteristics and select vari- VA, USA. 2 National Park Service, Biological Resources Division & Climate ables will be cross-tabulated in a series of heat maps [e.g. Change Response Program, Washington, DC, USA. [43]]. Tese heat maps will display the distribution and frequency of occurrences of evidence on ungulate expo- Received: 6 May 2020 Accepted: 31 August 2020 sure to changes in direct climate and secondary variables Malpeli et al. Environ Evid (2020) 9:21 Page 8 of 9

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