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Cyber-Attacks As an Instrument of Terrorism? – Motives – Skills – Likelihood – Prevention

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Cyber-Attacks As an Instrument of Terrorism? – Motives – Skills – Likelihood – Prevention Cyber-Attacks as an Instrument of Terrorism? – Motives – Skills – Likelihood – Prevention DRAFT VERSION Hendrik Hoffmann / Kai Masser German University of Administrative Sciences Speyer / German Research Institute for Public Administration Speyer 05/08/2018 Paper to be presented at the 2018 IIAS (International Institute of Administrative Sciences) Congress, 25-29 June, Tunis, Tunisia: Strive, Adapt, Maintain: Resilience of Governance Systems Abstract “Cyber-Attacks” are mostly “Cyber-Crime”. Most attacks are “financially driven”. However, the most notorious ”cyber-attacks” like Stuxnet, WannaCry and Petya/NonPetya are linked to state or state- partisan activities. Seemingly, there is a growing market for “Cyber-Defense”. However, the cyber- attack arena is very much reminiscent to piracy of the 16th and 17th century with the ingredients money, power and a legal void. In the second part of the paper, we investigate technical aspects of the attacks introduced in the first part. First, we look at attack vectors with a critical examination of how to minimize the attack surface. We then suggest defensive approaches which lead to best practices. We conclude with a consideration of the cyber inherent issue of unattributeability in conjunction with false flag operations. Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 1 A Introduction: The Pirates of the Cyberspace ....................................................................................... 3 A.1 Crime as a Key Driver for Cyber-Attacks ....................................................................................... 3 A.2 Cyber-Attacks: A growing Threat .................................................................................................. 4 A.3 A Threat to Whom, by Who and How can it do Harm? ................................................................ 7 A.4 Criminals – the State – and Unconfirmed Information ................................................................. 9 A.5 Summing-Up: Cyber-Piracy - A Frame of Reference ................................................................... 13 B Offense and Defense .......................................................................................................................... 13 B.2 Attack vectors: Technical and Human Failure ............................................................................. 14 B.2 Internet of Things: Leaving the Backdoor Open.......................................................................... 15 B.3 Defense: Mitigation is Good - Avoidance is Better ..................................................................... 16 B.4 Open Source – Documentation, strategy and emergency planning - Backups ........................... 16 B.5 Staff: Encryption – Physical Access ............................................................................................. 17 B.6 Honeypots and Oracles ............................................................................................................... 18 B.7 Best Practice ................................................................................................................................ 18 C To Sum-Up .......................................................................................................................................... 18 C.1 Parties in the Background ........................................................................................................... 18 C.2 Lessons Learned: Piracy is a Commercial Business, sometimes used by States to Attack Enemies, but rather Unsuitable for Terrorists .................................................................................. 20 C.3 Outlook ........................................................................................................................................ 21 References ............................................................................................................................................. 22 Print ................................................................................................................................................... 22 Online (all accessed from January until May 2018) .......................................................................... 22 2 An Introduction: The Pirates of the Cyberspace An alert observer of the press, especially online media, must conclude that the number of cyber- attacks is increasing steadily and heavily1. The website HACKMAGEDDON claims to monitor cyber- attacks on a daily base. According to the statistics of “hackmageddon.com” (2018) the number of cyber-attacks is rather stable: Figure 1: Number of Cyber-Attacks reported to “hackmaddegon.com” (2018), 2014-2017, own calculations, absolute figures According to the data gathered by hackmageddon.com, there is a rather stable figure around 900 to 1.000 attacks per year with a trend to rise until the year 2016, but then drops again to under 900 in the year 2017. A.1 Crime as a Key Driver for Cyber-Attacks Moreover, according to the data of hackmageddon.com crime is the foremost and dominating motivation for Cyber-Attacks: 1 E.g. the website „thebestvpn“ (2018) introduces an article about „Cyber Security Statistics” with the sentence: “Cyber-attacks are growing in prominence every day – from influencing major elections to crippling businesses overnight, the role cyber warfare plays in our daily lives should not be underestimated.” Unfortunately, the site is offering no statistical data aka evidence about the “growing” of the number or impact of cyber-attacks. 3 Crime Espionage Hacktivism Warfare 100 77 72 75 67 50 25 21 15 14 9 10 5 3 4 2 0 2017 2016 2015 Figure 2: Motivation behind Cyber-Attacks according to “hackmaddegon.com” (2018), 2015-2017, own calculations, percentage While hacktivism seems to play a lesser role from 2015 (21%) to 2017 (5%), espionage (2015: 10% / 2017: 15%) and particularly crime seems to be on the rise (2015: 67% / 2017: 77%). According to hackmageddon.com., crime is the overwhelming motivation for cyber-attacks. With regard to the techniques used for cyber-attacks, Malware2/POS3 are mainly on the rise: Unkown Account Hijacking Targeted Attack Malware/POS 50 40 33 30 30 24 22 23 20 16 16 15 12 11 10 8 9 10 9 10 6 0 2017 2016 2015 2014 Figure 3: Most frequent Techniques behind Cyber-Attacks according to “hackmaddegon.com” (2018), 2015-2017, own calculations, percentage A.2 Cyber-Attacks: A growing Threat If you listen to the media, “the number of devastating cyberattacks is surging” (CNBC 2017). The quoted CNBC article bases its alarming conclusion upon an increase in data breaches (“in the first six months of 2017”). The question rises, whether data breaches and cyberattacks can be can equated? 2 A malicious program that can execute itself and spreads by infecting other programs or files. 3 POS: Point of Sales. 4 Moreover, six months of observation is a rather short period and, additionally, the data comes from “Gemalto” (Google Search 2018). Gemalto is a company which offers its services via google as “the world leader in Digital Security”. However, companies providing IT / Digital / Cyber Security are delivering almost all data about the development and the threats especially about cyberattacks.4 Our first data source “hackmaddegon.com” already has a link to an IT security company. However, asking IT-Cyber security companies about increasing threats of cyber-attacks and hence a need for increased defense measures, is like ask the hairdresser whether you need a haircut. If we look at the revenues of companies selling cyber security compared to their spending for sales & marketing (S&D) there seems to be a correlation that the less money a cyber security company is making the more – proportionally - the company spends on S&D (Marketing). 5000 75 4000 50 3000 2000 25 1000 0 0 Symantec Palo Alto Checkpoint Fortinet FireEye Proofpoint Revenue (million USD) % Sales & Marketing Figure 4: Marketing spending (S&D) of selected public cyber security selling companies, compared to their total revenue, Source: Own inquiries according to latest business reports This is not necessarily a sign nor a statistical proof that cyber-security companies are mostly selling “hot air”. On the other hand, a vast investment in S&D is a precondition to sell any kind of “hot air”. However, cybersecurity seems to be a growing business. The ICT5 market review and forecast of TIA6 (2018) shows that cybersecurity spending in the U.S. increased from 2009 from about 27 billion USD to about 63 billion USD in 2017. Its share of the GDP7 increased in the same period from about 0,18% (2009/10) to nearly 0,38% (2017). 4 See for example the websites of FireEye, IBM or Symantec (all 2018). 5 ICT: Information and communication technology. 6 TIA: The Telecommunications Industry Association. 7 GDP: Gross domestic product. 5 100 1 75 0,75 50 0,5 25 0,25 0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 billions, USD percent of GDP Figure 5: Cybersecurity Spending in the U.S., percent of GDP and USD billions, 2009-2017, Source: TIA (2018) Does the increase in spending for cyber security seemingly indicates a rising need for it? However, what role the cyber security companies are playing? Are they just meeting the rising demands of governments, administrations and private companies; or do they might increase the market by over exaggerated-large thread scenarios; very much like some doctors
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