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City-Funded Study Says Sox Fans Won't Stray

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City-Funded Study Says Sox Fans Won't Stray City-Funded Study Says Sox Fans Won’t Stray February 20, 2003 By Michael Cousineau, Union Leader Staff A minor-league baseball team in Manchester could average as many as 5,000 fans a game and should not hurt attendance for the Boston Red Sox, which must approve the Manchester franchise, according to a city-funded feasibility study. A Manchester team also should expect to receive $250,000 a year from selling the naming rights of the proposed stadium slated to open in 2005 along the riverfront, according to the study, performed by Brailsford & Dunlavey, a consultant firm in Washington D.C. Red Sox officials currently are considering whether to permit the Manchester team -- now operating in New Haven, Conn. -- to move to Manchester for the 2004 season to play its first year at Gill Stadium. "The historic attendance analysis illustrates that the introduction of a minor-league team to the market has no effect (or indeed, if anything, a slightly positive correlation) on (Major League Baseball) attendance," said the study. "MLB attendance corresponds more to the team's market size, quality of facility and performance on the field," the firm stated. "Because of the ticket price discrepancy between minor league and MLB, the two are not direct competitors," the study said, noting "many baseball minds believe that the growth of minor-league baseball broadens the reach of the MLB." Mayor Robert Baines, who continues to meet with Red Sox officials, said he was pleased with the feasibility study, which cost the city $33,200. "I think it's bolstered the strength of our position with the Boston Red Sox, " Baines said. "We have always talked about how a team in Manchester would be beneficial to Major League Baseball and specifically to the Boston Red Sox. It's nice to have an independent analysis that reaffirms our position." Minor-league teams in the shadow of Major League Baseball clubs, such as Manchester would be with Boston, typically draw more fans, the study said. Comparing Manchester to other baseball markets, the study concluded that the greater Manchester area "performs well enough to support a new ballpark." The study also made reference to the Verizon Wireless Arena, which opened in November 2001. The Manchester Monarchs, a minor-league hockey team, leads the 28-club American Hockey League in attendance, drawing 8,773 fans per game. "Finally, the success of the new Verizon (Wireless) Arena in Manchester illustrates a strong corporate market with unmet demand, able and willing to support an additional sports and entertainment venue downtown," the study said. Other highlights include: Projected attendance of 4,500 fans per game as the "most likely case" with a range of between 4,000 to 5,000 patrons. Average attendance among Eastern League teams is 4,651 with an average capacity of 7,008, enough to fill 66 percent of all seats. Teams with stadiums built in the past 10 years draw about 200 fans a game more, based on the league's average over the last four years. Manchester could support the sale of 25 luxury suites sold for $25,000 per year as well as 100 club seats for $750 a year. Suites at the arena sell for $37,500 per year. The arena has a waiting list of 35 companies. Manchester's market has a median household effective buying income of $51,967, which would place it third among cities in the 12-team Eastern League. The population within a 20-mile radius of Manchester, is 594,228, a number adequate to support consistent minor-league attendance. Studies of professional baseball determined the best demographic to support minor- league ball is young families, best represented in markets with a high percentage of people in the 18-34 age bracket. Manchester has 24 percent of its population in that bracket, ranking it the third most favorable market in the Eastern League. The Manchester team has agreed to pay the city $750,000 a year to use the new stadium and keep money raised from the stadium's naming rights. "This analysis shows that the franchise should be able to cover this annual obligation with a comfortable coverage, even under the conservative attendance projection," the study said. .
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