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Technological Progress Opportunities in the Energy Sector of Russia A ISSN 1075-7007, Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2020, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 52–63. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2020. Russian Text © The Author(s), 2020. INDUSTRIES AND INTERINDUSTRY COMPLEXES Technological Progress Opportunities in the Energy Sector of Russia A. A. Makarov* Energy Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 117186 Russia *e-mail: [email protected] Received March 13, 2019; revised July 19, 2019; accepted September 2, 2019 Abstract—Based on the scenarios [1] for the transition of world energy in the period up to 2040 to a new tech- nological base, a study was made of its implications for energy and the economy of Russia. The damage from the declining export of Russian fuel due to the acceleration of technological progress (TP) in the global energy sector, as well as possible direct and multiplicative effects of its achievements in the energy sector of Russia1 are estimated. It is shown that with accelerated TP and the dynamics of domestic energy consumption obtained in the conservative scenario, it is possible to almost double the growth rate of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The required financial and economic conditions and measures for restructuring the fuel and energy complex2 are determined, so that the acceleration of TP in the energy sector could not only compensate for the expected decline in revenue from fuel exports, but almost double the growth rate of Russian GDP. DOI: 10.1134/S1075700720010086 Problem formulation. Technological progress in the nario of the country’s economy using a SCANER simu- 21st century is the main dominant factor in the devel- lation data complex [4] for enlarged types of economic opment of energy in the world and in Russia. It shifted activities and manufacturing industries with breakdown to the background the factor of labor resources in the by federal districts and extrapolation until 2040. fuel and energy complex (and to a large extent, their Russia exports more than half of the primary qualifications) and became the main component of its energy produced and, as our forecasts for the develop- investment attractiveness, significantly lowering the ment of world energy markets have shown [1], in the importance of the fuel supply factor. Based on a sce- conservative scenario it will continue to increase the nario analysis performed by the Energy Research export of all types of fuel, and world prices will not Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI reach their peak levels in the period under consider- RAS) of the consequences of the world energy transi- ation (2007–2008). New sanctions will follow the old tion from fossil fuels to noncarbon energy resources ones, including limited access by Russian energy com- [1], two extreme scenarios of the Russian energy panies to borrowed capital, the latest technology and development in the period up to 2040 are considered market channels. In this scenario, partial reforms will below, as well as the possible implications for the “correct” the low efficiency of the Russian economy country’s economy. and energy by increasing the share of investments in A conservative Russian energy development sce- the economy, saving and government spending on the nario continues the current trends in new technologies development of social energy and transport infrastruc- that have proved their effectiveness and corresponds to ture, as well as reducing corruption, while retention of the homonymous version of the Forecast of the State the existing financial, pricing and tax policies in the Social and Economic Development up to 2024 [2] and energy sector will keep stagnating the energy efficiency of the economy and technological progress in the its extension until 2036 [3]. Its main macroindicators3 energy sector of Russia. were used to calculate a balanced development sce- An innovative scenario for the Russian energy sec- 1 The study of climatic and environmental factors, which, along tor development provides for accelerated TP at all with technological progress, influence the energy development stages of the technological cycle from energy genera- rate and proportions, remains outside the scope of this article. 2 tion to consumption, with optimistic expectations of The term fuel and energy complex (FEC) means a set of types of an increase in the extended technological efficiency. activities providing fuel extraction, specialized transportation, processing and centralized production of electric and thermal But, unlike most developed countries, its implementa- energy: the oil, gas and coal industries, centralized electricity and heat supply. The term “energy sector” includes the fuel and 3 Population, labor resources, labor productivity, gross domestic energy complex and the energy facilities of all fuel and energy product, fixed capital investments, industrial production, popu- consumers. lation incomes, nonenergy exports and imports. 52 TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS OPPORTUNITIES 53 TOE/thousand USD 0.250 0.225 0.200 0.175 1.5 times 0.150 1.47 times 0.125 0.100 1.75 times 0.075 1.3 times 0.050 0.025 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Year Fig. 1. GDP energy intensity of Russia in the conservative and innovative scenarios, TOE/thousand USD PPP 2016: –m– Russia traditional; –n– Russia innovative; ⎯⎯ World; –j– OECD Europe; –r– China; ----- USA. Sources: IEA, 2016 actual data, INEI RAS forecast data. tion in Russia will require a radical business climate nario [1]. The consequence of this in the Russian sce- improvement in order to ensure the economic effi- nario will be a reduction in physical volumes, and ciency of new technologies. especially revenue from Russian energy exports. Can An analysis of international and Russian forecasts (and how) TP in the energy sector of Russia compen- showed a possibility to reduce from 1.75 to 1.3 times in sate for these losses, is one of the acute research ques- 2015–2040 the excess of the Russian GDP energy tions. intensity over world average values when transferring Economic development and domestic energy con- from the conservative to innovative scenario by inten- sumption. The Russian economy in the conservative sifying the use of developed energy-efficient technol- scenario develops at an average annual GDP growth ogies in electric and heat energy4 and other fuel con- rate of ~1.6%. The accumulation standard will be sumers5, as well as implementation of measures of about 20% of GDP, and the contribution of the fuel organizational, intersectoral and product energy sav- and energy sector to GDP will remain in the range of ing. The experience of large countries (in the United 21–20% and only by 2040 will decrease to 17%. In States the GDP energy intensity decreased by 30% terms of GDP (in terms of purchasing power parity of over 15 years, in China, by half over 10 years, Fig. 1) currencies in international dollars), Russia will over- indicates that a decrease in the GDP energy intensity take Germany in 2035, staying the six-largest in the in Russia in 2020–2040 from 20% in the conservative world, behind China, India, the United States, Indo- scenario to 40% in the innovative scenario is by no nesia and Japan. means ambitious. Iterative calculations on the The innovative scenario was developed for the SCANER complex made it possible to determine the dynamics of domestic demand for primary energy marginal rates of growth and changes in the structure obtained in the conservative scenario, subject to the of the Russian economy that can be achieved in the inno- implementation of economically justified energy-sav- vation scenario with allowance for the volumes of pri- ing measures in Russian conditions. It was shown that mary energy domestic consumption obtained in the con- in the future this will ensure acceleration of the coun- servative scenario (with optimization of its structure). try’s GDP growth rate by 1.7 times: under the innova- At the same time, in the innovative scenario for the tive scenario relative to the conservative one6. Russia development of world energy, the volume of international will be able to rise to fifth place in the world, ahead of trade has significantly decreased and as well as prices for Japan in 2035 and almost equal to Indonesia. At the all types of fuel in comparison with the conservative sce- same time, the accumulation standard will exceed 4 These are dozens of new technologies of the entire range of 25%, and the share in GDP of energy-intensive capacities for the storage and generation of electric energy based resource-based industries will decrease from 12.8% in on organic and nuclear fuels, renewable energy sources, as well as improvement of energy management systems based on digita- 6 The scenarios of economic development and the fuel and energy lization; for more details see [1, 5]. complex of Russia that are close in terms of growth rates are 5 These are hundreds of technologies, see [1, 6]. considered in [7]. STUDIES ON RUSSIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Vol. 31 No. 1 2020 54 MAKAROV PPP Billion USD, 2016 Million TCE 900 8000 800 700 7000 600 6000 500 5000 400 4000 300 3000 200 100 2000 0 1000 12 12 12 12 12 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 0 12 12 12 12 12 Year 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Year Fig. 3. Dynamics and factors of primary energy saving in Fig. 2. Dynamics and structure of Russia’s GDP in the the conservative (1) and innovative (2) scenarios: conservative (1) and innovative (2) scenarios: j mining; increase in primary energy consumption; organiza- industry; agriculture and forestry; construction; tional energy saving; energy saving technologies; j sec- transport and communications; taxes and services. toral economy structure; product economy structure; Source: INEI RAS. capacity utilization. Source: INEI RAS. 2015 to 9% in 2040 with an increase in the share of scenario) energy consumer investments and will create manufacturing industries from 24.4 to 27% and the a powerful multiplier effect in the economy.
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