Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 Articles & Other Documents: Featured Article: Congress Continues to Struggle with WMD, Bioterror Legislation

1. Iran to Conduct Missile Drills Today 2. N. Korea's HEU Stocks May Exceed its Plutonium Stockpile in 3 Years 3. N.Korea 'Getting Ready to Build a Nuclear Warhead' 4. Prime Minister Julia Gillard to Call for Global Disarmament, Destroy Atomic Weapons in US, Britain 5. Pakistan, India Seek to Lower Nuclear Fears 6. Melt Seen in Frozen Pak-India Ties 7. India Expects Partners to Fulfill Nuclear Commitments 8. Pak Not Capable of Keeping N-Arms Safe: Top Nuclear Physicist 9. Bulava Launches to Resume June 28 - Source 10. Hugo Chavez in 'Critical' Condition in Cuban Hospital 11. Congress Continues to Struggle with WMD, Bioterror Legislation 12. Fire Threatens Los Alamos National Laboratory 13. FBI Says Terrorism Cases on Upswing 14. War on Terror and Judicial Collapse in Pakistan – Analysis 15. Nuclear Proliferation in Southwest Asia 16. U.S. and North Korea: The Land of Lousy Options 17. Deterrent and Defense against a Nuclear Iran 18. Iran Carves Out an AfPak Hub

Welcome to the CPC Outreach Journal. As part of USAF Counterproliferation Center’s mission to counter weapons of mass destruction through education and research, we’re providing our government and civilian community a source for timely counterproliferation information. This information includes articles, papers and other documents addressing issues pertinent to US military response options for dealing with chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) threats and countermeasures. It’s our hope this information resource will help enhance your counterproliferation issue awareness.

Established in 1998, the USAF/CPC provides education and research to present and future leaders of the Air Force, as well as to members of other branches of the armed services and Department of Defense. Our purpose is to help those agencies better prepare to counter the threat from weapons of mass destruction. Please feel free to visit our web site at http://cpc.au.af.mil/ for in-depth information and specific points of contact. The following articles, papers or documents do not necessarily reflect official endorsement of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or other US government agencies. Reproduction for private use or commercial gain is subject to original copyright restrictions. All rights are reserved.

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 The following articles, papers or documents do not necessarily reflect official endorsement of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or other US government agencies. Reproduction for private use or commercial gain is subject to original copyright restrictions. All rights are reserved.

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FARS News Agency – Iran Monday, June 27, 2011 Iran to Conduct Missile Drills Today TEHRAN (FNA) - A senior Iranian commander announced that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace unit plans to start massive missile wargames on Monday. IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Brigadier General Amir-Ali Hajizadeh said that the exercises, codenamed Great Prophet-6, are to start on Monday. "Short-, medium- and long-range missiles will be fired, specially the Khalij-Fars, Sejil, Fateh, Ghiam, and Shahab-1 and -2 missiles," he said. The General, whose force carries out wargames each year in the Persian Gulf region, said the latest exercises were "a message of peace and friendship to the countries of the region". Hajizadeh did not mention how long the maneuvers will last. Iran has made giant progress in missile-production technology during the last decade. Late in May, the Iranian Defense Ministry supplied large numbers of 'Qiyam (Rise) 1' high-precision ballistic missiles to the IRGC Aerospace Force. At the ceremony, Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi said that mass-production of Qiyam 1 missiles indicated Tehran's self-sufficiency in producing different types of missiles. Referring to the detailed features and specifications of the newly mass-produced ballistic missile, Vahidi said that Qiyam 1 is the country's first finless missile. The minister added that the very special design of the missile makes its detection by radars and air defense systems difficult. He said that omission of the fins from the design has increased the velocity of the missile and shortened the launch time. In February, Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari announced that the IRGC has started mass-production of a recently-developed smart anti-ship ballistic missile. "The IRGC's smart ballistic missiles are now in mass-production and this type of missiles can hit and destroy targets with high-precision," Jafari told reporters in a news conference here in Tehran in February. "These new missiles enjoys supersonic speed and cannot be tracked or intercepted by enemy," the commander said, adding that missiles can hit targets 300km away with high-precision. The Iranian Defense Ministry in October delivered the third generation of home-made Fateh-110 high-precision ballistic missiles to the IRGC Aerospace Force. http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9004060295 (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Arirang News – South Korea June 27, 2011 N. Korea's HEU Stocks May Exceed its Plutonium Stockpile in 3 Years A nuclear expert in the United States projects North Korea will obtain over 40 kilograms of high enriched uranium in three years.

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

Olli Heinonen, former Deputy Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency posted on 38 North, a website devoted to North Korean issues that Pyongyang would be capable of producing 1.8 tons of low enriched uranium if all 2-thousand centrifuge machines at its enrichment facility in Yongbyon were operated at full capacity. He said an additional 8-hundred centrifuges would be able to convert the low enriched uranium to 40 kilograms of high enriched uranium, which would be enough to make one or two new nuclear bombs. Heinonen added that if North Korea was left on its own, its high enriched uranium stocks could exceed its current plutonium stockpile after three years. Pyeongyang is estimated to have between 25 to 40 kilograms of plutonium stocks. http://www.arirang.co.kr/News/News_View.asp?nseq=117471&code=Ne2&category=2 (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Chosun Ilbo – South Korea N.Korea 'Getting Ready to Build a Nuclear Warhead' June 27, 2011 North Korea probably has "a rudimentary design for a nuclear warhead for a ballistic missile," a British expert claims. Joseph Bermudez, an analyst for Jane's Information Group and editor of the KPA Journal, told Radio Australia last Friday, "From what we can tell, North Korea, since it began its ballistic missile program, has desired to put a nuclear warhead on it." The North has not tested a missile with a nuclear warhead on it, but Bermudez was at any rate skeptical whether it would work. North Korea is "on the threshold of conducting a successful space launch of a satellite," Bermudez said, "If they do develop an ICBM [intercontinental ballistic missile], it would allow them to strike at the continent of the United States eventually. Would it be militarily significant? Probably not, in the sense that Western powers think so, but politically it would be a tremendous game change." He said images provided by Digital Globe "show that there is an extensive above-ground infrastructure, but they also show entrances to underground facilities around the production facilities and the bases themselves are primarily underground facilities. I've combined this information with defectors' views and information released by intelligence agencies to come to an understanding that the underground facilities of the North Korean ballistic missile infrastructure are probably equal to what we see above ground." http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/06/27/2011062701058.html (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Daily Telegraph – Australia Prime Minister Julia Gillard to Call for Global Disarmament, Destroy Atomic Weapons in US, Britain By Simon Benson, National Political Editor, The Daily Telegraph June 27, 2011 JULIA Gillard will call for a parliamentary vote on a motion calling for nuclear armed countries - including our closest allies in the US and Britain - to destroy their atomic weapons. It would be the first time the Australian parliament had adopted a resolution calling for global disarmament. Ms Gillard has agreed to sponsor a motion into the parliament after pressure from Labor MPs on a parliamentary Committee on Treaties.

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

She will call for Opposition Leader Tony Abbott to support the motion, which was supported by Greens members of the committee. In a letter from Ms Gillard to the committee on June 15, the Prime Minister confirmed the government would adopt recommendation 21 of its Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament report. The resolution calls for an immediate cut to all nuclear arsenals, starting with a ban on enrichment and the production of fissile material. It is believed it was the second time the committee had written to Ms Gillard, after she ignored the first request earlier this year. In one letter, it was suggested that if the Prime Minister did not want to do it, Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd might move the resolution instead. Ms Gillard finally responded this week, confirming that she would agree to introduce the motion. "I am pleased to advise that the government intends to facilitate a motion in support of the abolition of nuclear weapons being considered in parliament," Ms Gillard said. "I intend to move the motion and will invite the Leader of the Opposition to second it." While previous governments have expressed support for nuclear disarmament, it would be the first time an Australian parliament had made a formal declaration in protest to nuclear weapons. The government is believed to have briefed US and British governments about the plans for a formal motion condemning nuclear weapons. The committee chair, Victorian Labor MP Kelvin Thomson, said it would be the first time the parliament had passed such a resolution. "It will be a significant development assumed it is passed," he said. The US and Russia last year agreed to further reduce their nuclear stockpiles. President Obama early on in his leadership supported the idea of a world free of nuclear weapons. http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/prime-minister-julia-gillard-to-call-for-global-disarmament-destroy- atmoic-weapons-in-us-britain/story-e6freuy9-1226082304534 (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Daily Star – Lebanon Pakistan, India Seek to Lower Nuclear Fears June 25, 2011 Reuters Page - 11 ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and India agreed Friday to try to ease fears about their nuclear arsenals, in unexpectedly positive talks between the two countries’ top diplomats. Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao and her Pakistani counterpart Salman Bashir agreed to expand confidence- building measures in both their nuclear and conventional weapons. A meeting of experts would be asked to “consider additional measures … to build trust and confidence and promote peace and security,” they said in a joint statement after a two-day meeting in Islamabad.

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

The talks yielded a better than expected outcome, with the foreign secretaries holding an unscheduled joint news conference, and agreeing to try to improve trade and travel across the cease-fire line dividing Kashmir. “The ideology of military conflict should have no place in the 21st century,” Rao told the news conference. India and Pakistan in February resumed a formal peace process broken off after the Nov. 2008 attack on Mumbai by Pakistan-based militants which killed 166 people. The countries, which announced they had tested nuclear weapons in 1998, have fought three full-scale wars since winning independence in 1947, two of them over Kashmir. The foreign secretaries gave few details of how they expected to build confidence in their nuclear capabilities. India and Pakistan already exchange information about missile tests and have an agreement not to attack each others’ nuclear facilities. But with India building its conventional capabilities and Pakistan reported to be developing battlefield nuclear weapons, security analysts say the risk of a conflict escalating into nuclear war is always present. “Negative thinking exists on both sides so there are chances that either one of them could misread or miscalculate the other’s movement and begin assembling and loading nuclear weapons,” said Pakistan defense analyst Hassan Askari Rizvi. The foreign secretaries also agreed to convene a working group next month to improve trade and travel across the Line of Control, the heavily militarized cease-fire line dividing Kashmir. Split between India and Pakistan since independence, families on both sides of Kashmir have been cut off from each other and old trade routes have been suffocated. “We must help the people of Jammu and Kashmir to connect with each other – to travel, to trade,” Rao said. India and Pakistan came close to agreeing a roadmap for peace in Kashmir in 2007 but the efforts stalled when then Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf ran into political turmoil at home which eventually forced him out of office. http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/International/2011/Jun-25/Pakistan-India-seek-to-lower-nuclear- fears.ashx#axzz1QU1OHAgM (Return to Articles and Documents List)

The Nation – Pakistan Melt Seen in Frozen Pak-India Ties By Maqbool Malik June 26, 2011 ISLAMABAD - South Asian nuclear neighbours, Pakistan and India, are limping towards bilateral agreements that could help them prevent escalation of hostilities in future and ensure peace and strategic stability in the region. Background discussions and interviews have revealed that despite heavy odds Islamabad and New Delhi have agreed to remain engaged passionately to resolve their outstanding issues threatening peace. Sources said that both sides have decided to continue consultations over major issues pertaining to peace and security and take new Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) besides sharing of information and each other’s experiences in respect of their nuclear and conventional defence assets, including security concepts and nuclear doctrines, nuclear restraint and safety of nuclear assets to reduce the risk of accidental or unauthorised use of nuclear weapons as well as advance notification in respect of ballistic missile flight tests.

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Sources said that both sides have agreed to undertake new CBMs in this connection in the light of MoU signed between the two countries in 1998 as well as the Lahore Declaration signed on February 21, 1999. The Expert Level Group has been revived with mandate to examine the proposals and make recommendations before the two countries enter into the landmark bilateral agreements in respect of peace and security regime, they added. Sources further said that apart from the peace and security, both sides have also decided to continue efforts for the resolution of other key issues relating to Jammu and Kashmir, Siachin, Sir Creek, water disputes, bilateral trade and friendly exchanges between the countries. Sources were upbeat that both the countries, which remain committed to continuing talks without losing passions would embark on new, shared vision for peace and strategic stability for better future of the people of South Asia. They were pinning hopes that both the countries would further find common grounds during the ministerial level meeting expected later next month. Both the countries revived full spectrum dialogue process in February this year after almost four years of serious tension because of the Mumbai attacks, which led to suspension of peace talks between Islamabad and New Delhi. http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Politics/26-Jun-2011/Melt-seen-in-frozen- PakIndia-ties (Return to Articles and Documents List)

The Hindu – India Sunday, June 26, 2011 India Expects Partners to Fulfill Nuclear Commitments By Siddharth Varadarajan NEW DELHI: The Nuclear Suppliers Group may have decided to ban enrichment and reprocessing technology and equipment (ENR) sales to countries outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), but India will continue to insist that its partners fully implement the 2008 “clean” NSG waiver for the country and all bilateral agreements, official sources told The Hindu on Saturday. Under the terms of the 2008 waiver, NSG members are allowed to make ENR transfers to India. Speaking on background because the text of the 46-nation supplier group's latest decision is yet to be received and properly studied, the sources sought to underline the fact that the India-U.S. nuclear agreement, the 2008 “clean” exemption by the NSG and India's agreements with other countries such as France and Russia all rested on the foundation of “mutual commitments.” If India's partners had committed themselves to providing full civil nuclear cooperation, India had promised to implement a number of non-proliferation conditions, change its liability law and place commercial orders for reactors worth billions of dollars. The sources said all mutual commitments, whether in the NSG decision of 2008 on India or in those contained in bilateral nuclear cooperation agreements, should be respected and fully implemented. “India will do so,” they stressed, “and we expect the same from others as well.” Though the Obama administration's statement that the new ENR restrictions would not “detract” from the 2008 NSG exception may be hard to square with reality, Indian officials say it is “reassuring” that the State Department has reiterated the U.S. “commitment to full civil nuclear cooperation” and its support for the “clean” NSG waiver. India takes these assurances very seriously and will insist on their fulfilment. Indeed, India now expects other key suppliers such as France and Russia to be even more forthcoming in the reiteration of their commitment to implement the NSG waiver. This is all the more so, given the personal pledge President Nicolas Sarkozy made to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in 2009 that France would not be bound by

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530 any G8 or NSG ban on the sale of ENR to India. As for Russia, the March 2010 bilateral agreement itself says the two countries “shall conclude a separate agreement for *ENR transfers+,” and one round of negotiations has already been held. Therefore, the Russians too have an obligation to clarify their national position in the wake of the NSG's latest decision. http://www.hindu.com/2011/06/26/stories/2011062659190100.htm (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Indian Express – India Pak Not Capable of Keeping N-Arms Safe: Top Nuclear Physicist By Shubhajit Roy Monday, June 27, 2011 Pakistan’s establishment lacks the ability to keep its nuclear weapons safe, says one of the country’s top nuclear experts, pointing out that the weapons are guarded by personnel of the Pakistan Army which has been infiltrated for decades by radical elements. Pervez A Hoodbhoy, who teaches nuclear physics at Islamabad’s government-run Quaid-e-Azam University, spoke to The Indian Express in Islamabad. His comments came amid growing concerns on the safety of nuclear weapons in Pakistan. “It doesn’t matter whether Pakistan’s chief of army staff Ashfaq Parvez Kayani swears on the Quran that he will make sure that nuclear weapons will be safe. The question is, does he have the power to do that?” said Hoodbhoy, 60, who has a PhD from MIT. “It seems to me that the Pakistan Army is playing with fire. It knows that these nuclear weapons are ultimately in the hands of their own people and their own people have been affected by decades of radicalisation. They may claim that they have personnel reliability tests, but I don’t believe that answering questions on a form may indicate his intentions,” he said. He dismissed Pakistan Interior (Home) Minister Rehman Malik’s recent assertion that the country’s nukes are 200 per cent safe. “Now Rehman Malik must be a genius to have come up with the figure of 200 per cent. How he arrives at that we have no idea, but that is what the Pakistan military wants us to believe and to unquestionably accept that the nuclear weapons have been provided security in Pakistan…which, personally I don’t believe,” he said. “So to come up with wild figures, I don’t believe there is source of any reassurance to the people of Pakistan or to the thinking people. We have seen the infiltration of radicals into the ranks of the Army. Very recently, a brigadier and four majors have been arrested. And our brigadiers are in charge of missile regiments too. So where things could go, I don’t know.” He said that the Pakistan establishment is in a “state of denial” in spite of the fact that there have been repeated attacks on the headquarters of the Army and the ISI. The repeated assertion in Pakistan, he said, is that nuclear weapons have so many layers of security that it would be impossible to penetrate them. “But this is something that the world obviously questions,” he said, adding that the reason is no matter how many technical precautions you take, “ultimately, it is the people who handle the nuclear weapons, just as the people are responsible for the defence of the Army, Air Force and Navy bases”. He referred to the recent attack on the Pakistan Navy airbase in Mehran, where a handful of people were “so well- informed by the insiders” that they managed to keep defenders at bay for over 18 hours, and destroyed two of Pakistan’s most valuable aircraft.

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

“So the worry that something similar may happen with the nuclear weapons crosses everybody’s mind… therefore, even if the strategic plans division says everything is fine, that does not reassure everybody.” He said India and Pakistan “are locked in an arms race”, adding, “Pakistan is building as many nuclear weapons as it can. They have very little utility... they provide a cover under which (there is) yet another spurt of nuclear weapons production.” http://www.indianexpress.com/news/pak-not-capable-of-keeping-narms-safe-top-nuclear-physicist/808979/0 (Return to Articles and Documents List)

RIA Novosti – Russian Information Agency Bulava Launches to Resume June 28 - Source 26 June 2011 MOSCOW: A new test launch of Russia's troubled Bulava missile will be staged on June 28, a Russian Defense Ministry source said on Sunday. Despite several previous failures, officially blamed on manufacturing defects, the Russian military has insisted that there is no alternative to the Bulava and pledged to continue testing the missile until it is ready for service with the Navy. "The decision to hold a test launch of the Bulava (SS-NX-30) submarine-launched ballistic missile on June 28 was taken by the State Commission for Flight Testing on Saturday," the source said. The launch will take place from a standard carrier, the Yuri Dolgoruky nuclear submarine, in the Barents Sea. Russia is planning to conduct at least four Bulava test launches this year and deploy the missile on its new Borey class strategic submarines. The Bulava missile carries up to 10 MIRV warheads and has a range of over 8,000 kilometers (5,000 miles). The Russian military expects the Bulava, along with Topol-M land-based ballistic missiles, to become the core of Russia's nuclear triad. http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20110626/164850804.html (Return to Articles and Documents List)

The Telegraph – U.K. Hugo Chavez in 'Critical' Condition in Cuban Hospital Hugo Chavez, the radical left-wing Venezuelan president, is reported to be in a "critical" but stable condition in a Cuban hospital following surgery earlier this month. By Robin Yapp, Sao Paulo 26 June 2011 Speculation about Mr Chavez's condition has been mounting ever since he underwent an operation on June 10, for what his government has said was a pelvic abscess. He remained uncharacteristically silent after the operation, even as Venezuela was hit by prison riots that killed at least 25 people and an electricity crisis, before messages began to appear again on his Twitter account on Friday. A US-intelligence source told the Miami-based newspaper El Nuevo Herald that Mr Chavez "is in critical condition; not on the brink of death, but critical indeed, and complicated."

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

The newspaper said its sources could not confirm rumours that Mr Chavez may be receiving treatment for prostate cancer in Havana. But it reported that his daughter Rosines, and his mother, Marisabel Rodriguez, were "urgently" flown to Cuba in an air force plane last week. While other Venezuelan ministers have attempted to dampen speculation by insisting Mr Chavez is recovering well, comments by Nicholas Maduro, the foreign minister, on Friday suggested that the situation may be serious. "The battle that President Chavez is waging for his health must be everyone's battle: the battle for life, for the immediate future of our fatherland," he said. Opposition politicians in Caracas have claimed that it is unconstitutional for Mr Chavez, who faces a presidential election next year, to be governing from abroad. The situation has also led to questions about what would happen if Mr Chavez had to relinquish power, with no potential successor coming close to matching his charisma. Under Venezuela's constitution, Elias Jaua, the vice president, would take the president's place during "temporary" absences of up to 90 days and would serve the rest of his term if Mr Chavez stepped down or died. Mr Jaua dismissed such a scenario on Saturday night, saying: "Chavez will be around for a long time." Mr Chavez was in Cuba on the final leg of a presidential trip that had also included Brazil and Ecuador. He spoke to state media two days after his operation to say he was well but has only been seen since in photographs issued to the media showing the Cuban leaders Fidel and Raúl Castro visiting him in hospital. Adan Chavez, the president's brother, has indicated that he will return to Caracas before the presidential summit of the Commonwealth of Latin America and Caribbean on July 5 – the bicentenary of Venezuela's declaration of independence from Spain. Prof Mark Jones, an expert in Latin American politics at Rice University in Texas, said the delay in Mr Chavez's return invites suspicion, as keeping his condition secret "is much easier to do in authoritarian Cuba than in semi- authoritarian Venezuela". He added that if Mr Chavez does not return for his country's bicentennial events, "it would be a strong indicator that he is indeed suffering some serious health problems." Experts said that any attempt to remove Mr Chavez from the presidency on health grounds would require the support of both Venezuela’s Supreme Court and National Assembly, making it extremely unlikely at present given his iron grip on the country. But if he had to step down, it could lead to a wide open presidential race in 2012 against a backdrop of inflation currently running at 23 per cent, one of the world’s highest murder rates and high levels of corruption. The US, which imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s state oil company last month, would hope to see a less hostile and more market-friendly candidate for the presidency emerge. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/venezuela/8599613/Hugo-Chavez-in-critical- condition-in-Cuban-hospital.html (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Bio Prep Watch Congress Continues to Struggle with WMD, Bioterror Legislation By Richard Northrop

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

June 24, 2011 Efforts to secure the United States from weapons of mass destruction, particularly biological warfare agents, continue to suffer from a lack of funding, coordination and leadership, a panel of witnesses told Congress on Thursday. At a joint hearing of the Cybersecurity, Infrastructure Protection and Security Technologies Subcommittee and the Emergency Preparedness, Response and Communications Subcommittee of the House Homeland Security Committee, members sought to move forward a bill on WMD preparedness that stalled in Congress last year. In testimony before the House, Representative Bill Pascrell, Jr., co-sponsor of the WMD Prevention and Preparedness Act of 2011, called on members to work together in a “bipartisan” manner to “swiftly consider” the bill. In a prepared statement, Pascrell stressed that he hoped “jurisdictional turf battles will not stop the full House and Senate from passing this important legislation as soon as possible.” Most members and witnesses agreed that the urgency of the bill was matched only by the threat posed to the country from biological weapons. The former 9/11 WMD Commission issued a report last year titled “World at Risk” that warned that a WMD attack is “likely” to occur by 2013. The same report gave the country particularly low grades for bioterrorism preparedness. Since that time, jurisdictional turf battles in Congress and between agencies, funding constraints and a lack of leadership from the White House have hampered efforts to develop a more closely coordinated bioterrorism strategy. “As the WMD Commission stated in its report, it is unacceptable that now, nearly 10 years after September 11, we do not have a comprehensive national strategy to counter the threat that WMD poses to our country," the committee’s lead-off witness, Representative Bill Pascrell, said. "One year later, and hopefully a little wiser, I hope we will swiftly consider by this committee this legislation, and that jurisdictional turf battles will not stop the full House and Senate from passing this important legislation as soon as possible.” The vice chairman of the WMD Center, former Senator Jim Talent, praised committee members “for consistently acting with the urgency that we at the WMD Center think is justified by this threat.” Recalling the failing grade given biodefense efforts and the dire warnings of last year’s report, Talent revealed that a follow-up report will be issued this fall that will more fully explore the failures to integrate detection and surveillance efforts and the necessity for sacrificing jurisdictional turf among numerous committees in order to make progress in protecting the nation from biological threats. Robert Kadlec, the former special assistant to President George W. Bush for biodefense, said that the nation has spent approximately $50 billion over the last 10 years on biodefense efforts, but that few improvements are discernible. He also pointed out that he was the last special assistant to the president for biodefense policy and that the Obama administration has not named a successor to that post. “We see how biodefense is managed today, it’s not being seen as a national security priority,” Kadlec said. Kadlec called for streamlining cross-cutting budgetary proposals across agencies, an emphasis on pre-vaccination of first responders and studies on environmental clean-up efforts should the nation suffer a bioterror attack, arguing that preparedness for biological threats can be a form of deterrence. At a somewhat more grassroots level, the final committee witness, Sheriff Richard Berdnik of Passaic, New Jersey, one of the six Tier 1 regions considered at greatest risk of a terrorist attack, told House members funding cuts could have a potentially devastating impact on state and local first responders. He added that the nation’s communications system continues to lack interoperability among responders and that there was presently no way to notify the public of a WMD event in a timely manner. The 2011 bill, introduced on Friday, retains a comprehensive approach to securing the country against weapons of mass destruction, emphasizing prevention, preparedness, protection, response and recovery. New provisions in

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530 this year’s bill include establishing a new Special Assistant to the President for Biodefense responsible for crafting a federal biodefense plan and putting together a cross-cutting biodefense budget, and a provision to allow the secretary of Health and Human Services to make surplus vaccines with short shelf lives from the Strategic National Stockpile available to state and local first responders. Ranking Member Laura Richardson (D-Calif.), in a prepared statement, said that efforts to better integrate state and local first responders would be accomplished “through training, exercise participation, intelligence information, grant funding and inclusion in the preparedness planning process.” The central theme of the committee’s hearing was repeatedly emphasized by former Senator Jim Talent, who said that “nobody is looking at the whole picture,” and that the U.S. has got to “get somebody in charge,” responsible for coordinating efforts, expenditures and priorities. Congress and the administration need to reach a degree of uniformity in understanding the urgency posed by biological threats, either man-made or natural, Talent said. Oversight rules by a number of committees continue to make it difficult for agencies to develop the trust and relationships necessary to address the problem, with literally dozens of agencies involved in biodefense issues. While the death of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden by U.S. special forces last month was a crippling blow to the organization, former Senator Talent noted that bin Laden's successor, Ayman al-Zawahiri, was an Egyptian doctor with a background in medicine and infectious disease, “One more reason we worry about bioterrorism.” Such a background could lead to a renewal of interest in biological agents as weapons of mass destruction, a much less complicated and cost effective endeavor than efforts to develop or steal nuclear weapons. Kadlec said in his prepared testimony that Zawahiri, is “one who has and likely still aspires to attack the United States with anthrax.” An additional highlight of the new bill is elimination of the National Bio-Surveillance Integration Center. “The bill also eliminates the under-performing National Bio-Surveillance Integration Center," Chairman Daniel Lungren (R-Calif.), said. "The goal of the NBIC was to provide early detection of an event of national significance, such as anthrax. While an effective national bio-surveillance capability is an important component of preparedness and response, NBIC has not fulfilled its mandate due in part to the lack of cooperation of other federal agencies. And we have limited evidence that this situation will improve. This bill rightly realizes that continuing to fund NBIC under the current operations scheme will be money wasted and calls on White House leadership to develop a new plan and program that works effectively and efficiently.” Ranking Member Richardson also emphasized the importance of public participation and ensuring that at-risk populations are included in planning. “As the WMD Commission found in its December 2008 report, America needs to move more aggressively to address our vulnerability to a bioterror attack," Richardson said. "As an original co-sponsor of this particular act, I’m proud to take up this bipartisan legislation that addresses this bio-WMD issue from prevention to recovery...One of the key provisions in this bill includes ensuring that we empower our citizens by providing WMD preparedness guidance and early warning systems.” Overall, the current state of WMD preparedness in the biological sector was bemoaned by Rep. Pascrell, who said that, “As the WMD Commission stated in its report, it is unacceptable that now, nearly 10 years after September 11, we do not have a comprehensive national strategy to counter the threat that WMD poses to our country.” According to Pascrell, the new legislation “addresses the findings from the Government Accountability Office on the state of our biodefense enterprise. It creates an entirely new top-down approach centered at the White House. This includes establishing a new special assistant to the president for biodefense who will be responsible for crafting a federal biodefense plan and putting together a yearly cross-cutting biodefense budget, which will help streamline agency efforts and improve efficiency. It includes a new provision that will allow the secretary of

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

Health and Human Services to make surplus vaccines with short shelf lives available from our strategic national stockpile to our state and local first responders." While the WMD Prevention and Preparedness Act of 2011 appears to have a measure of bipartisan support, fiscal constraints and Congressional gridlock make its passage anything but certain. "Funding for our various Homeland Security State and Local grant programs that help at-risk areas prepare and secure sensitive infrastructure, are under severe funding constraints," Rep. Pascrell said. "Grand programs for our Cops and Firefighters to purchase equipment and ensure they have adequate personnel are slated for cuts.” http://bioprepwatch.com/news/250731-congress-continues-to-struggle-with-wmd-bioterror-legislation (Return to Articles and Documents List)

International Business Times – U.S. June 27, 2011 Fire Threatens Los Alamos National Laboratory A wildfire blazing across New Mexico has shut down the Los Alamos National Laboratory, as flames came within a mile of the famed nuclear research facility. As of last night the Los Conchas fire had consumed between 4,000-6,000 acres across the state, forcing people to evacuate their homes and leading officials to evacuate Los Alamos' emergency facilities. "All laboratory facilities will be closed for all activities and nonessential employees are directed to remain off site," a statement on the laboratory's website said. "Employees are considered nonessential and should not report to work unless specifically directed by their line managers." Los Alamos is one of the leading scientific research facilities in the country and was the site of the Manhattan Project, which developed the first nuclear bomb. It continues to do research on nuclear weapons, and officials emphasized that they were taking precautions to safeguard nuclear material stored at the lab. "Emergency crews have been dispatched across the lab to protect key facilities and materials," spokesman Jeff Berger said. "Protected areas include all hazardous and radioactive facilities and our proton accelerator and super- computing centers." http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/170015/20110627/los-alamos-fire-new-mexico-fire-los-alamos-laboratory-new- mexico-nuclear-manhattan-project-oppenheim.htm (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Seattle Times June 25, 2011 FBI Says Terrorism Cases on Upswing Federal officials in Seattle say they unraveled a plot last week that was developed by what appear to be homegrown radicals embracing a militant Islamic doctrine. By Hal Bernton, Mike Carter and Steve Miletich, Seattle Times staff reporters. In 2002, Joseph Anthony Davis held up a 7-Eleven in Bremerton with two plastic toy guns. Nine years later, he sat on the floor of his SeaTac apartment to plan a terrorist attack with machine guns and grenades against a Seattle military recruiting station, according to tape-recordings made by an informant.

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

Federal officials last week arrested Davis, now known as Abu Khalid Abdul-Latif, as they once again unraveled an alleged plot developed not in some distant al-Qaida haven but by what appear to be homegrown radicals embracing a militant Islamic doctrine. Terrorism analysts say such individuals have been involved in many of the Islamic terrorism cases prosecuted by the Justice Department in recent years. And they caution that the United States is in a period of heightened risk for such plots, which are fueled by a combustible mix that includes graphic images of civilians killed by U.S. forces in Afghanistan, the upcoming 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, and, perhaps most important, the U.S. special-operations team's killing of Osama bin Laden. "With martyrdom comes a strong desire to retaliate. It adds another layer of motivation," said David Cid, executive director of the Oklahoma-based Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism. "Everybody has to be pretty much on their toes for the foreseeable future." Law-enforcement officials in the Northwest and elsewhere in the nation also are on alert to potential terrorism threats from an expanding pool of American right-wing extremists. This year, Kevin William Harpham, a former soldier from Stevens County who reportedly had links to neo-Nazi groups in the past, was accused of planting a bomb laced with rat poison along the Martin Luther King Jr. Day parade route in Spokane. "Just with the number of cases we've had in the past six months, I'm going to be asking for a 10 to 20 percent increase in our current (budget) numbers," said David Gomez, assistant special agent in charge of the FBI's Seattle office. The office oversees two squads, which include federal and local law-enforcement officers, focused on international terrorism. A third squad focuses on domestic cases, which continue to be "way more pressing on a day-to-day basis," Gomez said. For law-enforcement officials, there is also the continuing wild card of loners who unleash mass-casualty attacks without any apparent ideological motives. That includes the 2007 shooting massacre at Virginia Tech University, where a 23-year-old student killed 32 people. Willing to die "Sacrifice is necessary in order to achieve success in anything in life, and sometimes it requires us to die," said Abdul-Latif in a website comment he left on Voice of America about the death of bin Laden. In tape-recorded comments to an FBI informant, Abdul-Latif and his alleged co-conspirator, Walli Mujahidh, formerly known as Frederick Domingue Jr., indicated that they both expected to die in the attack on the recruiting center. They hoped their efforts would inspire other Muslims to strike such recruiting centers. In recent years, terrorism analysts have spent a lot of time trying to better understand how people reach a point that they are willing to take such extreme action. A 2007 New York Police Department study on homegrown terrorism found that the majority of people involved in these plots began as "unremarkable," and their shift in self-identification occurred when they were shaken by some event in their lives. They then "gradually gravitate away from their old identity" and move into a more violent phase when they designate themselves as holy warriors. Abdul-Latif seems to fit this pattern. He led a troubled life that included two suicide attempts and serving two years in prison for robbing the 7-Eleven, according to court documents. Either during or after his incarceration, he converted to Islam.

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

In recent months, as his efforts to run a cleaning-detailing business ended in a bankruptcy filing, Abdul-Latif emerged as a self-proclaimed "emir" in the alleged plot to attack the recruiting center. A Homeland Security Department study found that 70 percent of terrorist plots are initially detected by local residents or police. Local, state and federal law-enforcement officers share information through 70 "fusion centers," including one in the Seattle FBI office. "The good news is that they work," said William Bratton, a former Los Angeles police chief who serves as vice chairman of an advisory committee for Homeland Security. The alleged Seattle conspirators were exposed by an informant who went to the Seattle police. The informant posed as a third conspirator, helping secure weapons that had been rendered inoperative by law-enforcement officials. Many of these post-9/11 Islamic terrorism cases have been unraveled by informants or undercover operatives, leading defense attorneys to sometimes try to raise entrapments issues in court filings. Some of the plotters appeared to be novices who lacked the skills to pull off a major attack. In Portland, for example, Mohamed Osman Mohamud, a 19-year-old from Corvallis, Ore., was caught in an FBI sting operation that supplied him with a van packed with dummy explosives, which allegedly were intended to detonate at a Christmas-tree lighting ceremony last November. Bratton said some terrorist plans have failed because the plotters were "not the brightest bulbs in the circuit." At the same time, he said, it only takes one disturbed individual to create tremendous havoc. In Seattle in 2006, Naveed Haq, a Tri-Cities man with a history of mental illness, attacked the Jewish Federation of Greater Seattle, making anti-Semitic statements before killing one woman and wounding five. In 2007, Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan, an Army psychiatrist who appeared to have been influenced by the Internet preachings of a jihadist in the Middle East, killed 13 people and wounded 32 in an attack at Fort Hood, Texas. Right-wing radicals The threat of violence from right-wing extremists has also surged during the past several years, according to Cid, the head of the Oklahoma terrorism-prevention institute. He says the current threat level is similar to the months before the 1995 Oklahoma City federal building bombing by Timothy McVeigh, which killed 168 people, including 19 children. "We are seeing the rhetoric on the webpages become more pointed ... and we are concerned," said Cid, a former FBI agent who assisted in the investigation of the Oklahoma City bombing. In 2010, the Southern Poverty Law Center identified 824 militia groups, a big spike from the 149 counted in 2008. Militants are rallying around issues such as immigration and fears of a changing American demographic that is predicted to put whites in a minority around 2050, according to Mark Potok of the center. The election of the biracial President Obama has also played to their fears, as well as the tidal wave of foreclosures that have snatched away people's homes during the recession, he says. Within the past two years, the Southern Poverty Law Center has tracked more than 20 right-wing terrorist plots and incidents. Those include the arrest in Michigan of nine militia members who allegedly sought to kill a Michigan police officer and then use bombs and homemade missiles to kill other officers attending the funeral. This year, a man with ties to a neo-Nazi group was arrested in Arizona for allegedly building homemade grenades and pipe bombs for supply to groups patrolling the Mexico border. In March, six people with a cache of weapons

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530 that included grenades and grenade launchers were charged with plotting to kill or kidnap Alaska state troopers and a Fairbanks judge. In one peculiar terrorism case pursued in Asotin County, Joseph Jeffrey Brice, 21, opened email and PayPal accounts using the name of McVeigh, the Oklahoma City bomber, yet he is accused of posting bomb-making tips and videos on a jihadi website. In May, Brice was indicted by a Spokane grand jury for manufacturing a powerful improvised explosive device, which detonated prematurely in 2010 and caused him severe injury. "It gets to the point that ideology is less important than action," said Gomez, the FBI assistant special agent in charge in Seattle. "From my perspective, it doesn't matter if it's Christian Identity or radical Islam. We have to focus on these guys committing crimes." http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2015427889_terror26m.html (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Eurasia Review – Spain OPINION/Analysis War on Terror and Judicial Collapse in Pakistan – Analysis By Shahzad Masood Roomi June 25, 2011 The prevailing chaos and crisis the Pakistani society is entangled in is not merely a law and order problem but the result of a covert war, wherein the irregular enemy war combatants are ruthlessly attacking the Pakistani state and nation. Ironically, the national law-making institutions, political leadership as well as the military establishment have remained oblivious to this fact since the last decade. All this government is trying to do is to overcome this daunting challenge via various administrative measures relying on common practices of peace time law and order situation like police FIR’s, criminal investigations and looking towards the collapsed judicial system for any permanent solution. Consequently, the national internal security profile continues to get bleaker with every passing day. Except for military response and efforts, national security has been compromised in one way or the other at diplomatic and political level as there is no realization of the war which is being waged against Pakistan. Diplomacy had failed a long time ago after a policy level disaster in 2001 when Pakistan joined WoT without negotiating anything for its own national interests. The national media has been handed over to paid and sold out analysts and anchors. Political parties shamelessly indulge in mud-slinging and point scoring and the economy is in complete chaos. In this scenario, the judiciary had remained the only hope to keep intact the people’s faith in the state by providing justice and prompt punishment of the culprits. But unfortunately, in Pakistan, the judicial collapse has emerged as the worst one thus far and due to this the hopes of the masses in the judiciary have been shattered and placed the national security in complete panic on the internal axis as well. This failure has led the whole nation to the brink of complete social anarchy. A glimpse of this horrendously possible situation can be seen in many of our urban centers, particularly in Karachi. Subsequently, this leaves the military as the only institution to bear the entire burden of fighting a covert irregular urban war in Pakistani cities where the Non-State Violent Actors (NSVA’s) have been used by hostile forces in the region and world. Law Enforcement Agencies and military are fighting an extremely complex, nerve-wracking and endless war within the Pakistani borders against foreign funded NSVA’s. The judicial crisis is so severe that the military top brass has openly expressed their unease with the current state of judiciary vis-à-vis convicting the terrorists. Finally the military top brass has marked the Achilles’ heel in the entire chain of administrative and governance measures to combat this menace.

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

State of Pakistani Anti-Terrorism Legislation Unlike the world community, not a single legislation attempt was made after 9/11 to prevent and obstruct terrorist activities on Pakistani soil. This negligence provided opportunities to the global terrorist organizations to establish their financial and personnel networks inside Pakistan particularly in FATA and Baluchistan. Now both these areas have been turned into battle zones where the LEA’s and intelligence agencies had failed to check these terror networks preemptively due to the absence of any clear anti-terrorism policy and adequate legal tools to avert the plans of these terrorist groups. But that was just the beginning! Consequently, when the hostile intelligence agencies established a cloak-and-dagger terror networks in Afghanistan and FATA, which were completely asymmetric and irregular in nature and operation, the shortcomings of the Pakistani laws for the purpose of internal security were exposed completely. Pakistan is under attack but ironically the Pakistani government, the institutions and the lawmakers are still debating over how to improve the law and order situation? While the country is being attacked by foreign funded murderers and anarchists, even the realization of the need to discuss these challenges and building responses is not there among the political elite of the country which is too busy in plundering, looting and power-grabbing games. There is simply no question of any political will or the capacity to undertake this challenging task. The brief history of anti-terrorism laws in Pakistan vividly explains the sheer lack of commitment and earnestness by the Pakistani politicians. The last anti-terrorism act was promulgated in 1997. Though the term “terrorism” was defined for the first time in this law but this definition is certainly not going to help in coping with the threats of the ongoing multifaceted covert war. Apart from that, special Anti-Terrorism Courts (ATC’s) were established along with the Anti-Terrorism Appellate (ATA) tribunal. But it was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court of Pakistan right after it was enacted for the first time in 1997. Instead of addressing the SC’s objections through amending the conflicting articles, the then government issued the Anti-Terrorism (Amendment) Ordinance. Apart from being a subject of reissuance by the President after every four months, this ordinance actually made the original anti-terrorism act of 1997 quite ineffective in terms of investigating and convicting the suspects and terrorists as the special Appellate Tribunals were disbanded, appeals against the decisions of the ATC’s were henceforth to be filed in the respective High Courts. Also, the restrictions were placed on the earlier act’s provisions regarding the trial in absentia to accord with regular legal procedures. After these changes, law and order situation worsened once again, particularly in Sindh. The Government introduced Pakistan Armed Forces (Acting in Aid of Civil Power) Ordinance, 1998 through which broad judicial powers were given to the army units deployed in Karachi. Additionally, a new crime with the name of “civil commotion” was also introduced to punish anyone involved in creating internal disturbances in violation of law or intended to violate the law, commencement or continuation of illegal strikes, go-slows, lock-outs, vehicle snatching/lifting, damage to or destruction of State or private property, random firing to create panic, charging extortion, acts of criminal trespass, distributing, publishing or pasting of a handbill or making graffiti or wall-chalking intended to create unrest or fear or create a threat to the security of law and order. But before the military could bring about a positive change to the situation, the Supreme Court once again declared the ordinance as unconstitutional as the politicians of opposition (current government) filed cases against the validity of this Ordinance. The Ordinance was declared as unconstitutional once again as it had no legal authority and effect according to the SC. Later on the Armed Forces (Acting in Aid of Civil Power) Ordinance was repealed in April 1999. However, “civil commotion” is still included as a crime under the Anti-Terrorism Act of 1997. In August 1999, the original 1997 Act was amended to authorize the establishment of ATC’s all over the country. But these decisions failed because of the following factors: 1. The authority of the military to curb the culprits was repealed by the Supreme Court. On the other hand, the politicians did not address the primary legal weakness in conviction of terrorists which is the law of evidence. It is still based on accounts of eyewitnesses instead of investigating the cases on scientific basis. Due to the prevailing

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530 sense of insecurity, the eyewitnesses often do not come forth to identify the terrorists which make their acquittals easy from the courts. 2. LEA’s had no authority to preemptively monitor, search and investigate the suspects without obtaining legal warrants. 3. Appeals against the decisions by the ATC’s were to be made in the civilian courts which killed the entire rationale of establishing ATC’s. After 9/11, the anti-terrorism act of 1997 was sought to be improved through the ordinances, but that provision is no more with the President after the 18th Amendment, passed last year, which disallows the president from rectifying the ordinance again. On the other hand, the country continues to suffer widespread terrorism and invites frequent comments from the western media regarding its failure in ensuring peace and maintaining law and order. The epic judicial and legislative failure depicts the following picture of current situation: Anti-terrorism laws are outdated. They were made before 9/11 and the initiation of the 4GW against Pakistan hence they do not provide any assistance to the armed forces in their fight against the enemy irregular war combatants. These laws are rather counter-productive as a large number of the combatants have been released by the courts due to the presence of loopholes in these laws. The current anti-terrorism law addresses the prevailing security crisis as a law and order situation rather than encompassing the terrorism and insurgencies as acts of war. Civilian courts have been unable to convict and punish terrorists through the legal process. This failure puts the security forces under more pressure in their fight against terrorism and insurgencies. The enemy war combatants, released by the civil courts, rejoin their cadre to launch fresh attacks against the security forces making their counterinsurgency ops way more difficult and at times futile. More than 1000 trained irregular war combatants, captured by the security forces during the daring operations in Swat and Bajur, were released by the civil courts due to inherent legal flaws in the law of evidence. Not a single terrorist has been convicted and sentenced to death since the last decade and the possibility of doing so would remain next to none unless the current laws go through a complete overhaul according to the needs of irregular urban warfare. The Pakistani parliament has failed to come up with a unanimous definition of the term ‘terrorism’. There is no political consensus on dealing with this challenge. The subsequent policy failure stems from this inability of national law making institutions. In the absence of a comprehensive judicial policy to combat terrorism and the foreign funded war combatants, security forces at times have to take harsh decisions which later on become an excuse for the hostile forces and compromised media elements to malign them. Media trial of the security forces after the recent incidents in Quetta and Karachi is the clearest manifestation of this assertion. The current government had established National Counter-terrorism Authority (NACTA) in 2009 with funding from the EU to devise a comprehensive anti-terrorism plan. At this point in time, the presence of this organization even after two years is nominal. Its role has been defined merely as an advisory body. Any sort of political consensus regarding the realization of this ongoing war has not been achieved yet and there is no consensus in sight, in the near future, over this grave threat to the nation. The mainstream political parties like PML(N) are hell-bent on blaming the armed forces and the intelligence agencies for their political goals. When the country is bleeding and the security forces’ personnel are giving the ultimate sacrifices daily, this behavior is completely treacherous! But again, there is no law to put this utter nonsense to an end. More unfortunately, there

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530 is no realization, even on judicial level, about the impact of this mud-slinging on the armed forces. Resultantly, these politicians are playing the role of enemy collaborators in demoralizing the armed forces. This judicial failure has put the security forces and their counterinsurgency ops in a very difficult position on the legal axis. If they eliminate the terrorists and insurgents in these operations then the media, the HR organizations and even the courts, start raising questions of legality and authority of such operations and if they bring the terrorists to the courts they get easy acquittals and rejoin their cadres to resume their attacks against the state and the armed forces. The Anti-Terrorism Act of 1997 is vague and cannot guarantee the adequate legal support to the armed forces. Not only has this Act been unable to provide enough authority to the LEA’s and intelligence agencies in the current chaotic security situation, it also has no effective protection for the witnesses and judges in terror related cases. Finally, it has no provision or penalty for the political entities having links with terrorists and foreign funded mercenaries. These are the serious shortcomings of Pakistani anti-terrorist laws and must be plugged in by strict but consensually constituted laws at the federal level and their implementation must be severely ensured. Final Word There is a dire need of radical measures to be adopted both at policy and practice levels on the legal axis of the overall national security policy. Right now, visible lacunas prevail in Pakistan’s anti-terrorist laws due to the completely confused and compromised legislative. The nation and the armed forces would continue to suffer and bleed in the presence of the current anti-terrorism laws. Tactical victories against the enemy irregular war combatants would remain futile if these gains are not nurtured at the administrative and political levels and this is exactly where Pakistan needs to act decisively and swiftly. Peace time laws cannot deliver during wars; the sooner the nation and leadership understand this fact the better it would be. Till the formulation of a comprehensive judicial policy as per the national security requirements, military act must be invoked immediately in order to punish the enemy combatants and put the fear of Allah in their hearts. This task should have been done a long time ago; any further delay would be suicidal for Pakistan. Shahzad Masood Roomi is a lead research analyst at Brasstacks security think tank in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, and an assistant editor of monthly Brasstacks Security Review magazine, which presents a Pakistani prespective on regional and global strategic and political issues. Shahzad Masood Roomi area of expertise is military and strategics. http://www.eurasiareview.com/war-on-terror-and-judicial-collapse-in-pakistan-analysis-25062011/ (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Atlantic Sentinel OPINION/Analysis Nuclear Proliferation in Southwest Asia By Nick Ottens June 25, 2011 Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons program has the potential of destabilizing the balance of power in the entire Middle East. In a recent special strategic issue, the analysts of Wikistrat warn that a nuclear Iran could kick off a regional bout of rapid proliferation. “If and when this occurs,” the geopolitical analysis firm predicts, “the region will rerun the same brinkmanship dynamics that Europe experienced during the early Cold War decades, logically leading to the same stabilizing conclusion of arms control but suffering an extended period of extreme danger along the way.” Iran’s reach for the bomb is far from irrational. As Wikistrat points out, it came amid American invasions of both of its neighbors—Afghanistan and Iraq. “Also, Iranian leaders believe that if Iran had had the bomb in 1980, it never

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530 would have suffered its devastatingly long war with Iraq.” The logic of seeking a nuclear capacity is clear—it provides an enormous security benefit compared to nonnuclear states. An atomic weapon in the hands of the ayatollahs may well pose an existential threat to Israel although its conventional and nuclear weapons superiority could be sufficient to deter a first strike. Other countries are in a less enviable position. Wikistrat points out that given Saudi Arabia’s fears of Iranian encroachment on the peninsula, “it is possible that Israel might someday act with more than just the silent blessing of the region’s Sunni regimes.” If Israel doesn’t attack however and Iran eventually weaponizes its nuclear potential anyway—the likeliest scenario—would it compel the Saudis to seek a similar capacity? Iran and Saudi Arabia are the only two powers standing in the Middle East but the kingdom’s influence seems to be eroding. Its client government in Lebanon was undermined by Iranian sponsored Hezbollah earlier this year while the Shī’ah turmoil in neighboring Bahrain was, according to the Saudis, part of an Iranian conspiracy. “If the Saudis join Iran and Israel in a nuclear triangle, it is possible others in the region would feel compelled to join in,” including Egypt and Turkey which already controls tactical nuclear weapons deployed there by its NATO ally. Indeed, Wikistrat analyst Thomas Barnett suggested last year that Iran’s nuclear quest could be why Turkey pretended to be outraged when Israel intercepted a fleet of blockade runners bound for Gaza. For all the anti- Israel rhetoric that suddenly poured out of Turkey, what mattered, according to Barnett, was that “Ankara has its bloody shirt, which will be used—once Tehran inevitably announces the weaponization of its nukes—to justify Turkey’s rapid reach for the same.” Turkey can claim that—despite its efforts to broker a nonnuclear peace in the region—it needs its own deterrent against Israel’s nuclear arsenal, too. It may be preventable if the United States are willing to assume an even more activist role in the region. Former national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski proposed last year that America extend its defense umbrella to cover friendly regimes in the region which, if sufficiently credible, could deter Iranian aggression. Middle East analyst Ramzy Mardini offered similar advice, fearful that “uncertainty about Washington’s commitment will dramatically increase the incentive for regional states to seek self assurance, and hence, indigenous nuclear deterrents of their own.” In the long run, a nuclear Iran may make the region a safer place. Just as during the Cold War, when mutually assured destruction always stopped the superpowers from going to war, Iran and Israel may be compelled to reach an understanding which includes a de facto recognition of the Jewish state by the Middle Eastern parties involved. The world’s greater powers would not allow confrontations in the meantime to escalate out of fear of putting the world’s primary oil reserves at risk. History teaches that whenever a region welcomes its second nuclear power, its potential for major conflict plummets. According to Wikistrat, “it all depends on how unique you think the Middle East is versus how universal you think the impact of nuclear weapons is.” Nick Ottens is a graduate student at Leiden University, the Netherlands. He wrote his thesis on the causes of the First Anglo-Afghan War and currently researches Muslim revivalist movements and terrorism in nineteenth century British India. He is a contributing analyst with Wikistrat and blogs about politics and economics at Free Market Fundamentalist. http://atlanticsentinel.com/2011/06/nuclear-proliferation-in-southwest-asia/ (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Los Angeles Times OPINION/OP-ED

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

U.S. and North Korea: The Land of Lousy Options Washington's approach to North Korea's bad behavior has been measured, firm — and inadequate. We need to rethink our approach. By John Kerry June 26, 2011 Sixty-one years ago this weekend, North Korean artillery opened fire along the 38th Parallel, and a war began that claimed the lives of more than 33,000 American soldiers, 100,000 Chinese "volunteers" and 2 million Koreans. Today, the goal of building a lasting peace remains elusive. In fact, the peninsula is more dangerous than ever. North Korea has twice tested nuclear weapons and is developing missiles to carry them. It has built facilities capable of producing highly enriched uranium for more nuclear weapons. In defiance of a U.N. arms embargo, it continues to export weapons and sensitive technologies to unsavory partners such as Myanmar. And last year, the deadliest since the armistice in 1953, a North Korean torpedo killed 46 South Korean sailors and an artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island killed four more South Koreans. The U.S. response to all of this has been measured but firm. It has also been inadequate. More than three years have passed since the last round of six-party talks on eliminating North Korea's nuclear weapons, and it's no coincidence that this diplomatic hiatus has been marked by dangerous conduct. Our current approach of strong sanctions and intense coordination with South Korea and Japan does not provide sufficient leverage to stabilize the situation, much less bring about a change in North Korean behavior. Left unchecked, Pyongyang will build more nuclear weapons, test them and develop missiles that could directly threaten the United States. What are our options? Returning immediately to the six-party talks (which included North Korea, South Korea, the United States, Russia, China and Japan) is not viable. South Korea won't participate unless North Korea atones for its recent bad behavior. And the North, approaching a leadership succession in 2012, is disinclined to cooperate lest it look weak. Similarly, there are limits to the pressure that China is willing and able to apply. China exerts the most leverage as North Korea's ally and largest trading partner, but it's not willing to risk the country's collapse. Further, Pyongyang has a habit of stubbornly resisting good advice, even from its patrons in Beijing. The best alternative is for the United States to engage North Korea directly. We all have grown weary of North Korea's truculence — its habit of ratcheting up tensions, followed by calls to negotiate back from the brink, followed by concessions, and a repetition of the process. But while North Korea may be the "land of lousy options," as one expert calls it, inaction only invites a dangerous situation to get worse. That is why, always in close consultation with our South Korean allies, we should explore steps that can reduce the threat and return to the path toward a denuclearized peninsula. Achieving complete denuclearization will take time, but in the near term we should try to negotiate an end to the North's enrichment of uranium, a moratorium on nuclear weapons and missile testing, the removal of fresh fuel rods capable of producing fissile material and the final dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear reactor. These are worthy intermediate goals along the path toward complete and verifiable denuclearization. To be sure, it's unlikely that we can resume such sensitive talks immediately given the current state of relations. We need to start more slowly. A good place to begin would be to open talks with North Korea on resuming recovery operations in North Korea for American servicemen still missing from the war — operations suspended in 2005 by Donald Rumsfeld. The North is willing to resume these efforts. This will open a direct channel of communication with the Korean People's

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

Army, and will return U.S. soldiers to the battlegrounds of North Korea on a solemn mission to ensure that no American is left behind. We should also resume carefully monitored U.S. food assistance to hungry North Korean children and other vulnerable populations. North Korean human rights envoy Bob King's recent visit to Pyongyang reflects a long and wise American tradition of separating humanitarian concerns from politics. If the North allows strict monitoring, as it did when U.S. nongovernmental organizations delivered food aid in 2008, then the United States should demonstrate our compassion for the famished children of North Korea. After two years of near-silence, reestablishing contact would demonstrate that cooperation is possible, if only on humanitarian issues at first. Then we can move on to tougher issues, including dismantling North Korea's nuclear program. North Korea is changing, undergoing a leadership transition and increasing exposure to the outside world. If we give Pyongyang a stake in improving its behavior, we increase the odds that our nuclear engagement will be successful in the coming years. Rebuilding a relationship is essential to unlocking the nuclear puzzle and forging a lasting peace. Let's get on with it. John Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, heads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-kerry-north-korea-20110626,0,4538130.story (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Ha’aretz Daily – Israel OPINION/Feature Article June 27, 2011 Deterrent and Defense against a Nuclear Iran By Louis Rene Beres, John T. Chain Iran is now probably within a year of becoming a nuclear weapons state. When that happens, Israel's preemption option will be gone. Ideally, however, the Jewish State's remaining strategic choices will then still include optimal and interrelated forms of nuclear deterrence and active defense. The core of Israel's active defense plan for Iran remains the phased Arrow anti-ballistic missile program. Iron Dome is intended primarily for intercepting shorter-range rockets. Looked at exclusively from Israel's technical side, everything looks very good. In principle, the implications of Israel's nearly-lost preemption option may remain tolerable. But there is still a problem with premature optimism. It lies in untenable assumptions about any system of active defense. No system of ballistic missile defense can ever be altogether reliable. Intercept system reliability is a "soft" concept: Any missile defense system will have "leakage." A small number of Iranian missiles penetrating Arrow defenses might be "acceptable" if their warheads contained "only" conventional or chemical payloads. But if the incoming warheads were in any measure nuclear and/or biological, even an extremely low rate of leakage would be unacceptable. Now, Israel must move, recognizably, to strengthen its still-ambiguous nuclear deterrence posture. To be dissuaded from launching an attack, a rational adversary would always need to calculate that Israel's second-strike forces could outlast any contemplated first-strike aggressions. Facing the Arrow, this adversary could require steadily increasing numbers of missiles in order to achieve an assuredly destructive first-strike against Israel. But once Iran were able to assemble a certain determinably larger number of deliverable nuclear warheads, Arrow could cease to serve its deterrent function.

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

What if the Iranian leadership does not act according to rational behavior? What if Tehran does not value Iran's national survival as a state above all else? Such circumstances, improbable, but still possible, could render it impossible to deter an Iranian nuclear adversary with any threats of "massive retaliation" and/or "flexible response." Nonetheless, Israel must continue to develop, test and implement an Arrow-based interception capability to match the cumulative enemy threat. It must also take corollary steps to enhance the credibility of its opaque nuclear deterrent. More precisely, Israel must prepare to take its bomb out of the basement on short notice, and to make operational a recognizable second-strike nuclear force. This force, hardened and dispersed, must be ready to inflict an unacceptable retaliatory salvo against identifiable enemy cities. Israel must also clarify that Arrow defenses would always operate simultaneously, or in tandem, with Israeli nuclear retaliations. Iran must, therefore, be made to understand that Israel's Arrow deployment will never preclude, or even render less probable, an Israeli nuclear reprisal. In the very best circumstances, Iran would never have been allowed to develop a nuclear program with impunity. Now, however, Israel will have to deal with a persistently recalcitrant enemy regime by implementing steady enhancements of both its nuclear deterrence and active defense capabilities. Although regime-change in Tehran might first appear as an attractive alternative option, Israel should understand that any such transformation could, at best, offer only temporary national security benefits. Soon, Iranian nuclear peril could be directed toward Israel not only via direct missile strike, but also by way of terrorist-proxy delivery systems, including cars, trucks and boats. Should a newly-nuclear Iran ever decide to share its weapons-usable materials and scientific personnel with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israel might then have to face a heightened prospect of nuclear terrorism. For Israel, even comprehensive efforts at upgrading nuclear deterrence postures and long-range active defenses could be insufficient. To deal satisfactorily with the less visible but still-urgent derivative component of an Iranian nuclear program, a deliberate strategy for inflicting nuclear terror, Israel will have to accelerate its layered integration of Iron Dome with Arrow. In the absence of viable preemption options, such acceleration may also prove indispensable to secure protection from expressions of enemy irrationality in Tehran. Louis Rene Beres is professor of political science and international law at Purdue. The author of many major books in the field, he was chairman of Project Daniel (Israel ). U.S. Air Force Gen. John T. Chain (Ret. ) was commander-in-chief of the U.S. Strategic Air Command and director of the Joint Strategic Target Planning Staff. He has also served as chief of staff of the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe and director of the U.S. State Department's Bureau of Politico Military Affairs. http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/features/deterrent-and-defense-against-a-nuclear-iran-1.369769 (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Asian Times – Hong Kong OPINION June 28, 2011 Iran Carves Out an AfPak Hub By M K Bhadrakumar

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

The participation of the presidents of Pakistan and Afghanistan in the international conference on terrorism held in Tehran over the weekend becomes a major diplomatic and political victory for Iran at the present juncture of regional politics. Both Asif Ali Zardari and Hamid Karzai were received by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei. One main focus of the conference was to highlight that the United States has been using international terrorism as the pretext to intervene in Afghanistan and in the Middle East and to interfere in their internal affairs. Khamenei's message to the conference, in a nutshell, highlighted the "calculations of satanic world powers, which use terrorism in their policies and planning to achieve their illegitimate goals". Khamenei alleged that the US finances and arms terrorist groupsin the region and, most interestingly, he singled out for reference the "crimes" by the Blackwater (Xe Services) group of "assisting terrorist groups" in Pakistan as "part of this shameful and unforgettable list of American acts of terrorism". Expressing solidarity with the growing criticism by Islamabad and Kabul against the excesses of the US's military operations in AfPak, Khamenei added, "The deadly attacks by the American drones against defenseless families in villages [of Pakistan] and in the most deprived areas of Afghanistan have repeatedly turned weddings into mourning ceremonies." Khamenei said in a scathing attack on the US's regional policies: With such behavior, it is a shame [for the US] to claim to be leading the fight against terrorism ... From the standpoint of the leaders of the hegemonic powers [read US], everything that threatens their illegitimate interests is viewed as terrorism. All struggles intended to defend a cause against the occupiers and interventionist forces are regarded by them as terrorism. Zardari highlighted at the conference that Pakistan had suffered immensely during the decade of the US-led war in Afghanistan. He said over 5,000 Pakistani security personnel had lost their lives and the estimated damage in financial terms amounts to US$37 billion for the Pakistani economy. Zardari stressed the importance of the "vital need for a collective campaign" by the regional states in the "war on terror". Overlapping security interests Karzai, on the other hand, said, "I believe that the campaign against terrorism is not possible through merely military means." He called for unity, a firm stand and "collective cooperation" by Muslim states in the fight against terrorism. On the eve of the conference, Zardari and Karzai held a tripartite meeting with Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, which, again, "urged close cooperation among regional countries" over the issues of "peace and security in the Middle East". The Iranian president's office said, "[Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan] pledged to expand their cooperation in political, security, economic and cultural areas as well as fighting terrorism and foreign interventions." From the Iranian perspective, a main objective was to forge common thinking with Pakistan and Afghanistan that the continuance of the US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces in Afghanistan adversely impacts on all three countries' national interests and on regional security and stability. This comes out clearly in the meetings Khamenei had with Zardari and Karzai. Khamenei sought an "all-out expansion of ties" between Iran and Pakistan and cautioned Zardari that "Washington is trying to sow seeds of dissension in Pakistan to meet its illegitimate goals". He expressed his appreciation that the Pakistani people were well aware of the US's "ominous intention" and are resisting the US's "hegemonic plots". Khamenei's reference went beyond the earlier allegation by Ahmadinejad that Tehran had "specific evidence" of a US conspiracy to seize Pakistan's nuclear weapons. Khamenei seemed to imply that the US plans to destabilize the Pakistan' state in order to weaken it and to break its resolve to resist US dominance, as well as to hamper its capacity to play an effective role in the region.

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

Clearly, the tensions that have accrued in the US-Pakistan relationship in the recent period provide the backdrop for this exchange. This is the first time that such a reference has been made at Khamenei's level. Zardari's delegation included Interior Minister Rehman Malik, which suggests the Pakistani expectation of Iran sharing details of its perception regarding the security implications of the US's regional policies. Malik indeed had a separate meeting with Iran's Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar, who was previously Iran's defense minister and belongs to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. The Iranian account of the meeting suggested that it was mainly concerned with the activities of the terrorist group Jundallah, which operates out of Pakistan in Iran's eastern border province of Sistan-Balochistan. "We discussed ways to collaborate on the fight against extremists and terrorists who use Pakistani soil for actions against Iran's interests," Mohammad-Najjar said. Significantly, Tehran is making a distinction between Jundallah and the Pakistani state, whereas there have been earlier allegations of Pakistani complicity. Whether Malik (who was a former head of Pakistan's Federal Investigation Agency) also met with Iran's powerful Intelligence Minister Heydar Moslehi remains unclear. At his meeting with Karzai, Khamenei frontally attacked the US plans to set up military bases in Afghanistan. "The Americans are after permanent bases in Afghanistan, which is a dangerous issue because as long as US troops are in Afghanistan, there would be no real security. The Afghan people are suffering from the US military presence in their country and this presence is a great pain for them and the entire region", he said. The meeting with Karzai took place two days after US President Barack Obama's announcement of a troop drawdown in Afghanistan. Khamenei told Karzai that a rapid pullout of US troops was in the interests of Afghanistan and the region. He was confident that Afghanistan was capable of "controlling its affairs and determining its fate". Having said that, all indications are that in the Iranian assessment, the US may be compelled to abandon its earlier plans to set up military bases in Afghanistan due to a combination of circumstances - the Taliban's uncompromising opposition, the US's economic crisis and overall war weariness and the urgency to concentrate on the Middle East and Africa. Meanwhile, Tehran keeps urging Karzai not to give in to the US plans. What worries Iran most is that the planned US military bases include Herat and Shindad in western Afghanistan on the border with Iran. Broad convergence The big question is how tangible will be an Iran-Pakistan-Afghanistan regional axis over the Afghan problem. The short answer is that the axis is both a matter of appearance as well as of some substance and how the proportion works out will depend on the acuteness of the situation in Afghanistan and the regional milieu. At this point in time, the varying degrees of antipathy felt toward the US on the part of Pakistan and Afghanistan on the one hand and Iran's inveterate standoff with the US on the other give impetus to the three neighboring countries drawing closer. Both Zardari and Karzai undertook the visit to Tehran with the full awareness that it signified an act of "strategic defiance" of the US - and more important, they knew that Washington would get the message as well. That is to say, the "Iran connection" gets them some room to maneuver vis-a-vis the US. But then, there are also specific interests for Kabul and Islamabad to forge an understanding with Iran. Karzai would like to secure all the political support that Iran can provide that enables him to press ahead with the reconciliation with the Taliban. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, leader of Hezb-i-Islami, which is represented in Karzai's government, lived in exile in Iran for five years. Iran also wields influence over a variety of non-Pashtun forces that happen to harbor misgivings about Karzai's peace plans of reconciling the Taliban.

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530

In a worst-case scenario, Iran could prove to be a "spoiler", while Karzai's negotiating strength substantially increases via-a-vis the US (and Pakistan) in political terms if Iran is seen as his partner. Iran's support for the peace process as next-door neighbor is an imperative need for Karzai to reach a durable Afghan settlement. The bottom line is that reciprocally Tehran would expect Karzai to keep in mind at all times the red line regarding Iran's legitimate interests in Afghanistan and acts accordingly. Karzai has managed to maintain good equations with Tehran all through despite US interference. From this angle, Khamenei's strong demarche with Karzai regarding US military bases in Afghanistan could prove to be a clincher. In the past, Iran's and Pakistan's interests in Afghanistan often proved to be at loggerheads. But a qualitative change has taken place. For Pakistan, gnawed by apprehensions of the US's intentions toward it, Iran as a friendly neighbor becomes a critically important asset today. Especially so, as Iranian inputs regarding the US's covert activities inside Pakistan will be of invaluable use and solidarity with Iran helps mitigate the US pressure. For Tehran, too, it is important that Pakistan does its utmost to ensure that Jundallah activities from its soil are curtailed and the possibility of third countries exploiting Jundallah as a means to destabilize Iran is excluded. Equally, Pakistan is a major Sunni country and Iran's interest lies in ensuring that it does not become part of the Saudi-led alliance against Iran in the Middle East. Iran can flaunt its friendship with Pakistan to expose the Saudi campaign to whip up the phobia of a Shi'ite-Sunni schism in the Middle East today by way of branding Tehran as the leader of the Shi'ite camp and rallying the Sunni Arab opinion. The Taliban used to be a divisive issue in the Iran-Pakistan relationship. But this is no longer the case, as the cutting edge of the Afghan situation today for both countries lies in regard to the US's military presence. Both Iran and Pakistan agree that a long-term US presence in Afghanistan should be somehow scuttled. Also, the Taliban have transformed, which is what the direct contacts between them and the US (without Islamabad's knowledge) suggest. Above all, Iran's comfort level is much higher today regarding a fair deal in an Afghan settlement for the Afghan groups with which Iran has enjoyed historical and cultural links. The old-style Pashtun dominance of Afghanistan is a non-starter as there has been a sort of "political awakening" among the Afghan people. Iran also would factor in that the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 and the ensuing downstream consequences have greatly reduced the capacity of the Pakistani state to dictate an Afghan settlement unilaterally. Karzai is the best bet under the present circumstances for both Iran and Pakistan as the leader of an "Afghan-led" peace process. All these elements have contributed to the broad convergence of interests between Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. How this convergence plays out in the coming weeks and months will have a significant bearing on the course of events in Afghanistan and it will no doubt impact the reconciliation process with the Taliban. Iran will have the maximum interest in forging a regional axis out of this broad convergence of interests and concerns and making it a real driving force that shapes events to come rather than acts as a mere catalyst. But it takes two - or in this case three - to tango. Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MF28Ak02.html (Return to Articles and Documents List)

Issue No. 919, 27 June 2011 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Research & Education | Maxwell AFB, Montgomery AL | Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7530