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Turkey's Status-Seeking Policies In GREAT EXPECTATIONS: TURKEY’S STATUS-SEEKING POLICIES IN THE 21ST CENTURY A Master’s Thesis by MUHAMMED YUSUF YILMAZ Department of International Relations İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University Ankara August 2020 To My Family and Feyza GREAT EXPECTATIONS: TURKEY’S STATUS-SEEKING POLICIES IN THE 21ST CENTURY The Graduate School of Economics and Social Sciences of İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University by MUHAMMED YUSUF YILMAZ In partial fulfillments of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS İHSAN DOĞRAMACI BİLKENT UNIVERSITY ANKARA August 2020 ABSTRACT GREAT EXPECTATIONS: TURKEY’S STATUS-SEEKING POLICIES IN THE 21ST CENTURY Yılmaz, Muhammed Yusuf M.A., Department of International Relations Supervisor: Asst. Prof. Dr. Seçkin Köstem August 2020 This thesis aims to analyze the role of status concerns in Turkish foreign policy in the 21st century. Utilizing Richard Ned Lebow’s theory that he built in his book A Cultural Theory of International Relations, this research argues that Turkish foreign policy makers have been adopting policies that are primarily driven by status-concerns. Although status concerns are rooted in the human need for self-esteem, they have systemic consequences as they govern political behavior. Benefitting two other complementary theories -Social Identity Theory (SIT) and Prospect Theory-, this thesis demonstrates how numerous agendas in Turkish foreign policy are the manifestations of this human motive. While SIT is employed to identify the policies that are pursued to enhance Turkey’s status in the international system, Prospect Theory is used to explain Turkey’s risky and ambitious policies after the Arab Spring which were resulted from the reference point bias. Ranging from the EU accession i process to the most recent policies in the Eastern Mediterranean, this thesis analyzes various major foreign policy agendas and offers a new way of thinking in examining Turkish foreign policy. Keywords: Human nature, Reference point bias, Social Identity Theory, Status- seeking, Turkish Foreign Policy ii ÖZET BÜYÜK UMUTLAR: 21. YÜZYIL’DA TÜRKİYE’NİN STATÜ ARAYIŞ POLİTİKALARI Yılmaz, Muhammed Yusuf Yüksek Lisans, Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Tez Danışmanı: Dr. Öğr. Üyesi Seçkin Köstem Ağustos 2020 Bu tez, 21. Yüzyılda Türk dış politikasındaki statü kaygılarının rolünü analizlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Richard Ned Lebow’un A Cultural Theory of International Relations kitabında kurduğu teoriden faydalanarak, bu araştırma Türk dış politika yürütücülerinin öncelikli olarak statü kaygılarını esas alan politikalar bensimediğini ileri sürmektedir. Statü kaygıları insanın özsaygı ihtiyacından kaygılanıyor olmasına ragmen, siyasal davranışı kontrol ettiği için sistemsel sonuçları vardır. Diğer iki bütünleyici teoriden faydanalarak -Sosyal Kimlik Teorisi (SKT) ve Beklenti Teorisi-, bu tez Türk dış politikasındaki birçok gündemin bu insani güdünün tezahürü olduğunu göstermektedir. SKT Türkiye’nin uluslararası sistemdeki statüsünü arttırmak için yürütülen politikaları tespit etmek için kullanılırken, Beklenti Teorisi Türkiye’nin Arap Baharı sonrasındaki referans noktası yanılmasından kaynaklanan riskli ve hırslı politikaları açıklamak için kullanılmıştır. AB katılım sürecinden son zamanlarda Doğu iii Akdeniz’deki politikalara uzanan birçok dış politika gündemini analiz etmektedir ve Türk dış politikasını incelemek için yeni bir düşünce tarzı önermektedir. Anahtar Kelimeler: İnsan doğası, referans noktası yanılması, Sosyal Kimlik Teorisi, statü arayışları, Türk Dış Politikası iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost, I would like to express my gratitude to my supervisor Asst. Prof. Dr. Seçkin Köstem for his invaluable guidance, encouragement and patience throughout my undergraduate and graduate studies at Bilkent University. I have been extremely lucky and privileged to have a supervisor who has immense knowledge and always an understanding attitude. I gratefully acknowledge Prof. Dr. Ersel Aydınlı for teaching me a lot more than academic knowledge, for his guidance about my future studies, for accepting to join my thesis committee and his insightful comments. I also would like to thank Prof. Dr. Emel Parlar Dal for accepting to take part in my thesis committee and for her constructive criticisms. I wish to extend my gratitude to my sisters Bilge Betül and Buşra Zeynep for their continuous support in my life and my education. I also express my love to my little niece Amine Pelin for her unending emotional support with her innocence and beautiful smile. My whole-hearted gratitude goes to my parents Hatice and Hüseyin Yılmaz, for all the things they have done for me throughout my whole life and their unconditional support. Without the support of my parents, this and many other achievements would not have been possible. I am indebted to them in every step in my life and my academic career. v Finally, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to Feyza, who has always been patient and understanding during all my absences and my travails throughout this process. I feel greatly fortunate to have her in my life and will always be grateful for all the things I have learned from her. Her passion and positivity in life will always be an inspiration for me. For all the support and love, I am thankful to all of you. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................. i ÖZET ......................................................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................. v TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................... vii CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER II: THEORIES ON DIFFERENT LEVELS AND THE EXPLANATORY POWER OF THE INDIVIDUAL LEVEL .................................................................................................................. 10 2.1 Waltz’s Typology and System-Level Theories .............................................................. 11 2.2 Multiple-Level Frameworks and Neoclassical Realism ................................................ 19 2.3 State Level Theories ..................................................................................................... 24 2.3.1 Theories on Governmental and Institutional Level .............................................. 26 2.3.2 Theories on the Societal Level .............................................................................. 30 2.4 Individual Level Theories.............................................................................................. 34 CHAPTER III: CONCEPTUALIZATION, THEORIES, AND METHODOLOGY ................................. 42 3.1 Earlier Works on Honor and Status in International Relations .................................... 47 3.2 Conceptualization ........................................................................................................ 49 3.3 Lebow’s Cultural Theory of International Relations .................................................... 58 3.4 Why Status Matters in International Relations and Social Identity Theory................. 64 3.5 Prospect Theory and Status Signaling .......................................................................... 67 3.6 Identity, Ontological Security and Fundamental Human Motives ............................... 68 3.7 Linking Theory with Practice: Overview of the Methodology ..................................... 70 CHAPTER IV: STATUS-SEEKING ELEMENTS IN TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY BEFORE THE ARAB SPRING (2002-2011) ............................................................................................................... 72 4.1 The EU Accession Process as a Social Mobility Strategy .............................................. 73 4.2 Social Creativity Strategies between 2006 and 2011 ................................................... 82 4.2.1 Turkish Foreign Aid ............................................................................................... 82 4.2.2 Non-permanent Seat in the UNSC ........................................................................ 88 4.2.3 Turkey as a Model Country for the Middle East ................................................... 91 vii CHAPTER V: STATUS-SEEKING ELEMENTS IN TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY AFTER THE ARAB SPRING (2011-2020) ............................................................................................................... 99 5.1 Social Competition Strategies .................................................................................... 101 5.1.1 The Syrian Civil War ............................................................................................ 101 5.1.2 Downing of Russian Aircraft and the Astana Peace Process ............................... 108 5.1.3 Turkey’s decision to purchase S400 Russian air defense systems ...................... 112 5.1.4 Economic Nationalism and Turkish Defense Industry ........................................ 115 5.1.5 The Libyan Civil War and the Eastern Mediterranean Crisis ............................... 117 CHAPTER VI: CONCLUSION................................................................................................... 120 REFERENCES
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