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Fylkesros for Finnmark 1

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Fylkesros for Finnmark 1 FylkesROS for Finnmark RISIKO- OG SÅRBARHETSANALYSE FOR FINNMARK 2014-2017 Innholdsfortegnelse Forord ...................................................................................................................................................................... 3 1 Innledning ....................................................................................................................................................... 4 1.1 Mål for FylkesROS i Finnmark ................................................................................................................ 4 1.2 Sentrale begreper .................................................................................................................................. 4 1.3 Risikovurderinger i FylkesROS ............................................................................................................... 5 1.3.1 Hjelpetabeller .................................................................................................................................... 5 1.3.2 Oppbyggingen av FylkesROS ............................................................................................................. 9 2 Finnmark ....................................................................................................................................................... 12 2.1 Geografi og demografi ......................................................................................................................... 12 2.2 Natur og miljø ...................................................................................................................................... 13 2.3 Klimaendringer: Finnmark mot år 2100 .............................................................................................. 14 2.4 Risiko og sårbarhet i Finnmark.................................................................................................................... 15 3 Samlet risikobilde ......................................................................................................................................... 19 4 Kritisk Infrastruktur ...................................................................................................................................... 21 4.1 Kraftforsyningen ......................................................................................................................................... 21 4.1.1 Bortfall av kraft ................................................................................................................................ 21 4.1.2 Forebygging og beredskap - utfordringer innen risikoområdet ...................................................... 28 4.2 Elektronisk kommunikasjon (EKOM) ................................................................................................... 29 4.2.1 Utfall av EKOM ................................................................................................................................ 29 4.2.2 Forebygging og beredskap - utfordringer innen risikoområdet ...................................................... 36 4.3 Transport ............................................................................................................................................. 38 4.3.1 Framkommeligheten på vegnettet.................................................................................................. 38 4.3.2 Svikt i lufttransport .......................................................................................................................... 46 4.3.3 Svikt i sjøtransport........................................................................................................................... 49 4.3.4 Forebygging og beredskap - utfordringer innen risikoområdet ...................................................... 54 4.4 Oppsummering: Kritisk infrastruktur ................................................................................................... 55 5 Store ulykker ................................................................................................................................................ 59 5.1 Atomhendelser .................................................................................................................................... 59 5.1.1 Stort luftbåret utslipp fra anlegg i utlandet .................................................................................... 61 5.1.2 Lokale hendelser uten stedlig tilknytning ....................................................................................... 66 5.1.3 Utslipp som påvirker næringslivet ................................................................................................... 68 5.1.4 Øvrige scenarier .............................................................................................................................. 70 5.1.5 Forebygging og beredskap - utfordringer innen risikoområdet ...................................................... 71 5.2 Akutt forurensing ................................................................................................................................. 72 5.2.1 Akutte utslipp til sjøs ....................................................................................................................... 72 FylkesROS for Finnmark 1 5.2.2 Forebygging og beredskap - utfordringer innen risikoområdet ...................................................... 79 5.3 Ulykker med masseskader ................................................................................................................... 80 5.3.1 Ulykker til sjøs ................................................................................................................................. 83 5.3.2 Store flyulykker ............................................................................................................................... 86 5.3.3 Storulykke på land ........................................................................................................................... 89 5.3.4 Forebygging og beredskap - utfordringer innen risikoområdet ...................................................... 97 5.4 Oppsummering: Store ulykker ............................................................................................................. 98 6 Sykdommer ................................................................................................................................................ 101 6.1 Sykdommer som rammer mennesker ............................................................................................... 101 6.1.1 Infeksjonssykdommer som utfordrer den daglige helseberedskapen .......................................... 102 6.1.2 Pandemisk influensa ..................................................................................................................... 103 6.1.3 Forebygging og beredskap - utfordringer innen risikoområdet .................................................... 107 6.2 Oppsummering: Sykdommer ............................................................................................................. 107 7 Naturhendelser .......................................................................................................................................... 110 7.1 Ekstremvær ........................................................................................................................................ 111 7.1.1 Forebygging og beredskap - utfordringer innen risikoområdet .................................................... 115 7.2 Flom ................................................................................................................................................... 116 7.2.1 Forebygging og beredskap - utfordringer innen risikoområdet .................................................... 121 7.3 Skred .................................................................................................................................................. 122 7.3.1 Snøskred/sørpeskred .................................................................................................................... 123 7.3.2 Kvikkleireskred .............................................................................................................................. 126 7.3.3 Øvrige skredtyper .......................................................................................................................... 128 7.3.4 Forebygging og beredskap - utfordringer innen risikoområdet .................................................... 129 7.4 Oppsummering: Naturhendelser ....................................................................................................... 129 8 Tilsiktede hendelser ................................................................................................................................... 132 8.1 Sikkerhetstruende hendelser ............................................................................................................ 132 8.1.1 Terrorhandlinger ........................................................................................................................... 132 8.1.2 Alvorlige tilsiktede hendelser på offentlig sted ............................................................................. 135 8.1.3 Forebygging og beredskap - utfordringer innen risikoområdet .................................................... 137 8.2 Oppsummering: tilsiktede hendelser ...............................................................................................
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