STATE OF OREGON DEPARTMENT OF GEOLOGY AND MINERAL INDUSTRIES Tsunami Inundation Map Clat-04 www.OregonGeology.org Local Source (Cascadia Subduction Zone) Tsunami Inundation Map Tsunami Inundation Maps for Astoria, W. Lawrence Givens, Governing Board Chair Clatsop County, Oregon Vicki S. McConnell, Director and State Geologist Andree V. Pollock, Assistant Director, Geologic Survey and Services Astoria, Oregon Plate 1 Rachel L. Smith, Project Operations Manager Ian P. Madin, Chief Scientist 2013 123°52'0"W 123°50'0"W 123°48'0"W 123°46'0"W

58 Introduction

The Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) Oregon. DOGAMI has also incorporated physical evidence that suggests has been identifying and mapping the tsunami inundation hazard along that portions of the coast may drop 4 to 10 feet during the earthquake; 12 the Oregon coast since 1994. In Oregon, DOGAMI manages the National this effect is known as subsidence. Detailed information on fault City of Astoria Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, which has been administered by geometries, subsidence, computer models, and the methodology used to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) since create the tsunami scenarios presented on this map can be found in 101 1995. DOGAMI’s work is designed to help cities, counties, and other sites DOGAMI Special Papers 41 (Priest and others, 2009) and 43 (Witter and C in coastal areas reduce the potential for disastrous tsunami-related others, 2011). o consequences by understanding and mitigating this geologic hazard. l Using federal funding awarded by NOAA, DOGAMI has developed a new Map Explanation u generation of tsunami inundation maps to help residents and visitors m along the entire Oregon coast prepare for the next Cascadia Subduction This tsunami inundation map displays the output of computer models b Zone (CSZ) earthquake and tsunami. representing five selected tsunami scenarios, all of which include the i earthquake-produced subsidence and the tsunami-amplifying effects of r 62 a The CSZ is the tectonic plate boundary between the North American the splay fault. Each scenario assumes that a tsunami occurs at Mean e Plate and the Juan de Fuca Plate (Figure 1). These plates are converging Higher High Water (MHHW) tide; MHHW is defined as the average v R i 200 i at a rate of about 1.5 inches per year, but the movement is not smooth height of the higher high tides observed over an 18-year period at the R v e and continuous. Rather, the plates lock in place, and unreleased energy Astoria tide gauge (NOAA Station 9439040). To make it easier to i a 100 r builds over time. At intervals, this accumulated energy is violently understand this scientific material and to enhance the educational b 11 25 released in the form of a megathrust earthquake rupture, where the aspects of hazard mitigation and response, the five scenarios are labeled m u P I E R S T North American Plate suddenly slips westward over the Juan de Fuca as “T-shirt sizes” ranging from Small, Medium, Large, Extra Large, to o l Plate. This rupture causes a vertical displacement of water that creates a Extra Extra Large (S, M, L, XL, XXL). The map legend depicts the C tsunami (Figure 2). Similar rupture processes and tsunamis have respective amounts of slip, the frequency of occurrence, and the occurred elsewhere on the planet where subduction zones exist: for earthquake magnitude for these five scenarios. Figure 4 shows the 61 example, offshore Chile in 1960 and 2010, offshore Alaska in 1964, near cumulative number of buildings inundated within the map area. Sumatra in 2004, and offshore Japan in March 2011. 13 The computer simulation model output is provided to DOGAMI as 46°12'0"N CSZ Frequency: Comprehensive research of the offshore geologic record millions of points with values that indicate whether the location of each

indicates that at least 19 major ruptures of the full length of the CSZ have point is wet or dry. These points are converted to wet and dry contour City of Astoria 25 100 occurred off the Oregon coast over the past 10,000 years (Figure 3). All lines that form the extent of inundation. The transition area between the 19 of these full-rupture CSZ events were likely magnitude 8.9 to 9.2 wet and dry contour lines is termed the Wet/Dry Zone, which equates to B City of Astoria 10 earthquakes (Witter and others, 2011). The most recent CSZ event the amount of error in the model when determining the maximum 0 3 LA G O O N R D happened approximately 300 years ago on January 26, 1700. Sand inundation for each scenario. Only the XXL Wet/Dry Zone is shown on Y A W deposits carried onshore and left by the 1700 event have been found 1.2 this map. H G

HI 25 R

miles inland; older tsunami sand deposits have also been discovered in 46°12'0"N S U D estuaries 6 miles inland. As shown in Figure 3, the range in time This map also shows the regulatory tsunami inundation line (Oregon D E T L O I N O G S N A D B I

between these 19 events varies from 110 to 1,150 years, with a median Revised Statutes 455.446 and 455.447), commonly known as the Senate G G N R 100 I U O R O E Bill 379 line. Senate Bill 379 (1995) instructed DOGAMI to establish the T M E time interval of 490 years. In 2008 the United States Geological Survey U A S P E L O

B I (USGS) released the results of a study announcing that the probability of area of expected tsunami inundation based on scientific evidence and N T a magnitude 8-9 CSZ earthquake occurring over the next 30 years is tsunami modeling in order to prohibit the construction of new essential A S H S T R

8 64 D 10% and that such earthquakes occur about every 500 years (WGCEP, and special occupancy structures in this tsunami inundation zone 200 B I R C H S T 5 3 R D S T 2008). (Priest, 1995). 63 9 65 toria 3 6 T H S T

City of As C E D A R S T 66 25 CSZ Model Specifications: The sizes of the earthquake and its resultant Time Series Graphs and Wave Elevation Profiles: In addition to the 30 tsunami are primarily driven by the amount and geometry of the slip tsunami scenarios, the computer model produces time series data for S

67 o that takes place when the North American Plate snaps westward over “gauge” locations in the area. These points are simulated gauge stations 30 100 u

25 t

the Juan de Fuca Plate during a CSZ event. DOGAMI has modeled a wide that record the time, in seconds, of the tsunami wave arrival and the 3 2 N D S T h 80 81 A Astor 200

77 3 7 T H S T range of earthquake and tsunami sizes that take into account different wave height observed. It is especially noteworthy that the greatest wave Elem entary C

76 N I M School 100 I T h fault geometries that could amplify the amount of seawater height and velocity observed are not necessarily associated with the first 82 Z D R a

30 W M A R I N E D R 71 Astoria Police B' n displacement and increase tsunami inundation. Seismic geophysical tsunami wave to arrive onshore. Therefore evacuees should not assume 25 E 79 n 83 M 101 V 73 Departm ent F R A N K L I N A V E P O R T W A Y S T I e A L profiles show that there may be a steep splay fault running nearly that the tsunami event is over until the proper authorities have sounded T 2 9 T H S T Astoria Fire l W B O N D S T L 68 S E

9 T H S T

P A M

75 O Departm ent

84 3 3 R D S T

the all-clear signal at the end of the evacuation. Figure 5 depicts the I 78 parallel to the CSZ but closer to the Oregon coastline (Figure 1). The U 3 4 T H S T Astoria N

3 R D S T

B

H 5 T H S T D

100 W C O M M E R C I A L S T M A R I N E D R M

BA SIN S T L G R A N D A V E a Fire D ept. N 3 9 T H S T effect of this splay fault moving during a full-rupture CSZ event would be tsunami waves as they arrive at a simulated gauge station. Figure 6 i U

Station 2 L COMMERCIAL ST r

O C O M M E R C I A L S T o 200 Com m unity depicts the overall wave height and inundation extent for all five t an increase in the amount of vertical displacement of the Pacific C

D U A N E S T 30 70 s S T Clatsop County College

A

H A R R I S O N A V E 3 8 T H S T

Ocean, resulting in an increase of the tsunami inundation onshore in scenarios at the profile locations shown on this map. R Y Oregon T 25

S Sheriff Department D U A N E S T f k

I N D U e W E X C H A N G E S200 T State Police 69 o e P I E R 3 r EXCHANGE ST y C 59 t 1 2 T H S T

G R A N D A V E i l 74 l 60 I R V I N G A V E C i

ALAMEDA AVE F R A N K L I N A V E M

2 0 T H S T

1 8 T H S T S P R U A N C E R D 25 L I B E R T Y L N P O R T W A Y D R 85

Cascadia Subduction Zone Setting W G R A N D A V E FRANKLIN AVE 25 Columbia Memorial

Hospital 100

72 H

A 100 L 30

F L O R A L S T G R A N D A V E S 5 T H S T E 200 E 6 T H S T V 7 T H S T Y A 9 T H S T G R R S V E D

H A B U K Y L I N E A Star of the

M I R V I N G A V E

200 25 Astoria Sea School

E V 100 E 8 T H S T A W V 1 0 T H S T L E A R X I N E J E R O M E A V E

200 G O M T O L W R A' O J Y E J E R O M E A V E

A N K E N S I N G T O N A V E P T L A A E A A V E D V S A E N E A M T A A L V E F L O R E N L E X I N G T O N A V E 1 1 T H S T LEXINGTON AVE 53 C E

A Astoria 200 V E Com m unity E A G L E L N S T N MADISON AVE College E D 3 R D S T S E E R I E S T W E R N I A G V D A R A A N I A G A R A A V E G L A S G O W A V E F L O R E N C E A V E 100

4 T H S T E R I E A V E 202 7 T H S T 9 T H S T

W Ci ty of Asto ria

101 A L A M E D A A V E 200 K L A S K A N I N E A V E I

Astoria Middle Astoria L 101 L School I Reservoir A

Figure 1: This block diagram depicts the tectonic setting of the region. See Figure 2 for the sequence of M

100 #2 S

events that occur during a Cascadia Subduction Zone megathrust earthquake and tsunami. P

5 T H S T J A M O E S R S T 86 S DENVER ST T 200 R 200 D Astoria 25 Reservoir

How Tsunamis Occur Astoria Senior 200

I R 6 T H S T High School C F P I P R C C L U R E L 101 M E A V E I N 100 O 100 E R D D r

L Ci ty of Asto ria S e

v A C W i A U B U R N A V E A R C 100 N y it D a y I N D o A Af V R I n D N E H A L E M A V E A h s A N o t T 25 25 o S C J r I A EVERGREEN RD i a V N N E A LA M E D A R Y A V E R D

5 T H S T

7 T H S T

8 T H S T

200 A B C k T

202 e S W S E 3 R D S T e

L I r Figure 2: The North American Plate rides Because the two plates are stuck in place at Eventually the locked zone ruptures and L 25 D

L R A C Y

101 L E R W

over the descending Juan de Fuca Plate at a the “locked zone,” strain builds up over time causes a great earthquake. The sudden slip of I g N 30

A i N S E 2 N D a C A rate of approximately 1.5 inches per year. and the North American Plate bulges up. the two plates displaces Pacific Ocean water S M T S E 2 N D S T r N C A S I upward and creates a tsunami. P 100 D V O R R A T T N R R I D D P A R K E R L N P O S N 100 M P A 25 A I P C I E S 200 L L I L N I E C E D A R W R B D A Y 25 R k D ree k C k c e J a n C re 100 ow Br 200 C 54 i t Ci ty of Asto ria D Y B L I E L N D E y o Displaced and uplifted Pacific Ocean water f 25 Along the Oregon coast, tsunami waves run W D 46°10'0"N rushes in all directions. up onto the land for several hours. a R Yo u n g s 100 r D r R Y e K E n E L R E L T t C 200 100 L A I

C R O S E 25 o M V n D B a y R M R T N E E

R L E R

Occurrence and Relative Size of Cascadia Subduction Zone Megathrust Earthquakes O M

D N D O A

P A N 200 30

S R N M 25 B

A R I D L 202 L Figure 3: This chart depicts the timing, I J O W 100 frequency, and magnitude of the last 19 great H 87 N 25 Cascadia Subduction Zone events over the G R I M S TA D L N D

A past 10,000 years. The most recent event 200 Y John Day

100 25 100 occurred on January 26, 1700. The 1700 R RFPD I

event is considered to be a “medium sized” 200 V 46°10'0"N 25 E event. The data used to create this chart came R

R

from research that examined the many D submarine landslides, known as “turbidites,” that are triggered only by these great earthquakes (Witter and others, 2011). The W I R E L E S S R D loose correlation is “the bigger the turbidite,

the bigger the earthquake.” 25 101 100

k 100

e 25 e 25

r

200 100

l C 200 se Cro Buildings within Tsunami Inundation Zones C R O S E L P I P E L I N E R D C R E E K R D

100 y Riv Da 123°52'0"W 123°50'0"W 123°48'0"W 123°46'0"W hn Jo Estimated Tsunami Wave Height through Time for Simulated Gauge Station Maximum Wave Elevation Profiles Legend Tsunami Inundation Map Index Data References

Source Data: References: Average Slip Maximum Slip Time to Earthquake This map is based on hydrodynamic tsunami modeling by 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Earthquake Size Range (ft) Range (ft) Accumulate Slip (yrs) Magnitude Joseph Zhang, Oregon Health and Science University, Probabilities (WGCEP), 2008, The Uniform California Portland, Oregon. Model data input were created by John Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2): U.S. T. English and George R. Priest, Department of Geology Geological Survey Open-File Report 2007-1437 and XXL 59 to 72 118 to 144 1,200 ~9.1 and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI), Portland, Oregon. California Geological Survey Special Report 203 [http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1437/]. Hydrology data, contours, critical facilities, and building XL 56 to 72 115 to 144 1,050 to 1,200 ~9.1 footprints were created by DOGAMI. Senate Bill 379 line Priest, G. R., 1995, Explanation of mapping methods and 01 data were redigitized by Rachel L. Smith and Sean G. use of the tsunami hazard maps of the Oregon coast, Pickner, DOGAMI, in 2011 (GIS file set, in press, 2012). Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries L 36 to 49 72 to 98 650 to 800 ~9.0 02 04 Open-File Report O-95-67, 95 p. Urban growth boundaries (2011) were provided by the 05 03 Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Priest, G.R., Goldfinger, C., Wang, K., Witter, R.C., Zhang, Y., M 23 to 30 46 to 62 425 to 525 ~8.9 Development (DLCD). and Baptista, A.M., 2009, Tsunami hazard assessment of 06 the northern Oregon coast: a multi-deterministic 07 Transportation data (2011) provided by Clatsop County approach tested at Cannon Beach, Clatsop County, were edited by DOGAMI to improve the spatial accuracy Oregon: Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral S 13 to 16 30 to 36 300 ~8.7 of the features or to add newly constructed roads not Industries Special Paper 41, 87 p. 08 present in the original data layer.

a

i p Witter, R.C., Zhang, Y., Wang, K., Priest, G.R., Goldfinger, C.,

b XXL Wet/Dry Zone o Lidar data are from DOGAMI Lidar Data Quadrangles Stimely, L.L., English, J.T., and Ferro, P.A., 2011, Simulating s

m

t

u

a LDQ-2011-46123-B6-Cathlamet Bay and LDQ-2011- tsunami inundation at Bandon, Coos County, Oregon,

l

l

09 o 46123-B7-Astoria. using hypothetical Cascadia and Alaska earthquake OREGON C C scenarios: Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Coordinate System: Oregon Statewide Lambert Industries Special Paper 43, 57 p. Urban Growth Boundary Fire Station Conformal Conic, Unit: International Feet, Horizontal Datum: NAD 1983 HARN, Vertical Datum: NAVD 1988. 10 Graticule shown with geographic coordinates Police Station (latitude/longitude). Building Footprint Clatsop Tillamook Software: Esri ArcGIS® 10.1, Microsoft® Excel®, and Figure 6: These profiles depict the expected maximum tsunami wave elevation for the five “tsunami T-shirt scenarios” along lines A-A' and B-B'. The tsunami scenarios are modeled to occur at high tide and to account for local subsidence or Adobe® Illustrator® uplift of the ground surface. 1 Simulated Gauge Station School Funding: This map was funded under award #NA09NW54670014 by the National Oceanic and Profile Location Hospital/Urgent Care Clinic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. Senate Bill 379 Line Map Data Creation/Development: 101 U.S. Highway Clat-01 Clatsop Spit Clat-06 Youngs River South Tsunami Inundation Scenarios: George R. Priest, Clat-02 Warrenton North Clat-07 Del Rey Beach Laura L. Stimely, Daniel E. Coe, Paul A. Ferro, State Park Clat-03 Warrenton South - Rilea Clat-08 Gearhart - Seaside Sean G. Pickner, Rachel L. Smith Basemap Data: Kaleena L.B. Hughes, Sean G. Pickner 241 State Highway Clat-04 Astoria Clat-09 Cannon Beach Figure 5: This chart depicts the tsunami waves as they arrive at the selected reference point (simulated gauge station). It shows the change in wave heights for Clat-05 Youngs River North Clat-10 Arch Cape - Falcon Cove all five tsunami scenarios over an 8-hour period. The starting water elevation (0.0 hour) takes into account the local land subsidence or uplift caused by the Map Production: Elevation Contour Cartography: Kaleena L.B. Hughes, Sean G. Pickner, earthquake. Wave heights vary through time, and the first wave will not necessarily be the largest as waves interfere and reflect off local topography and 0 0.25 0.5 Mile (25 ft intervals up to 200 ft) Improved Road Taylore E. Wille bathymetry. Any absence of data indicates periods for which tsunami inundation has not yet reached or has receded from the station location and dry land is Text: Don W.T. Lewis, Rachel L. Smith exposed. Editing: Don W.T. Lewis, Rachel L. Smith For copies of this publication contact: Scale 1:10,000 0 0.25 0.5 1 Kilometer Publication: Deborah A. Schueller Nature of the Northwest Information Center Figure 4: The table and chart show the number of buildings inundated for each “tsunami T-shirt scenario” for cities Map Date: 06/03/2013 800 NE Oregon Street, #28, Ste. 965 and unincorporated portions of the map. Portland, Oregon 97232 telephone (971) 673-2331 http://www.naturenw.org