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Cascadia Subduction Zone) Tsunami Inundation Map Tsunami Inundation Maps for Astoria, W

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Cascadia Subduction Zone) Tsunami Inundation Map Tsunami Inundation Maps for Astoria, W STATE OF OREGON DEPARTMENT OF GEOLOGY AND MINERAL INDUSTRIES Tsunami Inundation Map Clat-04 www.OregonGeology.org Local Source (Cascadia Subduction Zone) Tsunami Inundation Map Tsunami Inundation Maps for Astoria, W. Lawrence Givens, Governing Board Chair Clatsop County, Oregon Vicki S. McConnell, Director and State Geologist Andree V. Pollock, Assistant Director, Geologic Survey and Services Astoria, Oregon Plate 1 Rachel L. Smith, Project Operations Manager Ian P. Madin, Chief Scientist 2013 123°52'0"W 123°50'0"W 123°48'0"W 123°46'0"W 58 Introduction The Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) Oregon. DOGAMI has also incorporated physical evidence that suggests has been identifying and mapping the tsunami inundation hazard along that portions of the coast may drop 4 to 10 feet during the earthquake; 12 the Oregon coast since 1994. In Oregon, DOGAMI manages the National this effect is known as subsidence. Detailed information on fault City of Astoria Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, which has been administered by geometries, subsidence, computer models, and the methodology used to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) since create the tsunami scenarios presented on this map can be found in 101 1995. DOGAMI’s work is designed to help cities, counties, and other sites DOGAMI Special Papers 41 (Priest and others, 2009) and 43 (Witter and C in coastal areas reduce the potential for disastrous tsunami-related others, 2011). o consequences by understanding and mitigating this geologic hazard. l Using federal funding awarded by NOAA, DOGAMI has developed a new Map Explanation u generation of tsunami inundation maps to help residents and visitors m along the entire Oregon coast prepare for the next Cascadia Subduction This tsunami inundation map displays the output of computer models b Zone (CSZ) earthquake and tsunami. representing five selected tsunami scenarios, all of which include the i earthquake-produced subsidence and the tsunami-amplifying effects of r 62 a The CSZ is the tectonic plate boundary between the North American the splay fault. Each scenario assumes that a tsunami occurs at Mean e Plate and the Juan de Fuca Plate (Figure 1). These plates are converging Higher High Water (MHHW) tide; MHHW is defined as the average v R i 200 i at a rate of about 1.5 inches per year, but the movement is not smooth height of the higher high tides observed over an 18-year period at the R v e and continuous. Rather, the plates lock in place, and unreleased energy Astoria tide gauge (NOAA Station 9439040). To make it easier to i a 100 r builds over time. At intervals, this accumulated energy is violently understand this scientific material and to enhance the educational b 11 25 released in the form of a megathrust earthquake rupture, where the aspects of hazard mitigation and response, the five scenarios are labeled m u P I E R S T North American Plate suddenly slips westward over the Juan de Fuca as “T-shirt sizes” ranging from Small, Medium, Large, Extra Large, to o l Plate. This rupture causes a vertical displacement of water that creates a Extra Extra Large (S, M, L, XL, XXL). The map legend depicts the C tsunami (Figure 2). Similar rupture processes and tsunamis have respective amounts of slip, the frequency of occurrence, and the occurred elsewhere on the planet where subduction zones exist: for earthquake magnitude for these five scenarios. Figure 4 shows the 61 example, offshore Chile in 1960 and 2010, offshore Alaska in 1964, near cumulative number of buildings inundated within the map area. Sumatra in 2004, and offshore Japan in March 2011. 13 The computer simulation model output is provided to DOGAMI as 46°12'0"N CSZ Frequency: Comprehensive research of the offshore geologic record millions of points with values that indicate whether the location of each indicates that at least 19 major ruptures of the full length of the CSZ have point is wet or dry. These points are converted to wet and dry contour City of Astoria 25 100 occurred off the Oregon coast over the past 10,000 years (Figure 3). All lines that form the extent of inundation. The transition area between the 19 of these full-rupture CSZ events were likely magnitude 8.9 to 9.2 wet and dry contour lines is termed the Wet/Dry Zone, which equates to B City of Astoria 10 earthquakes (Witter and others, 2011). The most recent CSZ event the amount of error in the model when determining the maximum 0 3 LA G O O N R D happened approximately 300 years ago on January 26, 1700. Sand inundation for each scenario. Only the XXL Wet/Dry Zone is shown on Y A W deposits carried onshore and left by the 1700 event have been found 1.2 this map. H G HI 25 R miles inland; older tsunami sand deposits have also been discovered in 46°12'0"N S U D estuaries 6 miles inland. As shown in Figure 3, the range in time This map also shows the regulatory tsunami inundation line (Oregon D E T L O I N O G S N A D B I between these 19 events varies from 110 to 1,150 years, with a median Revised Statutes 455.446 and 455.447), commonly known as the Senate G G N R 100 I U O R O E Bill 379 line. Senate Bill 379 (1995) instructed DOGAMI to establish the T M E time interval of 490 years. In 2008 the United States Geological Survey U A S P E L O B I (USGS) released the results of a study announcing that the probability of area of expected tsunami inundation based on scientific evidence and N T a magnitude 8-9 CSZ earthquake occurring over the next 30 years is tsunami modeling in order to prohibit the construction of new essential A S H S T R 8 64 D 10% and that such earthquakes occur about every 500 years (WGCEP, and special occupancy structures in this tsunami inundation zone 200 B I R C H S T 5 3 R D S T 2008). (Priest, 1995). 63 9 65 toria 3 6 T H S T City of As C E D A R S T 66 25 CSZ Model Specifications: The sizes of the earthquake and its resultant Time Series Graphs and Wave Elevation Profiles: In addition to the 30 tsunami are primarily driven by the amount and geometry of the slip tsunami scenarios, the computer model produces time series data for S 67 o that takes place when the North American Plate snaps westward over “gauge” locations in the area. These points are simulated gauge stations 30 100 u 25 t the Juan de Fuca Plate during a CSZ event. DOGAMI has modeled a wide that record the time, in seconds, of the tsunami wave arrival and the 3 2 N D S T h 80 81 A Astor 200 77 3 7 T H S T range of earthquake and tsunami sizes that take into account different wave height observed. It is especially noteworthy that the greatest wave Elem entary C 76 N I M School 100 I T h fault geometries that could amplify the amount of seawater height and velocity observed are not necessarily associated with the first 82 Z D R a 30 W M A R I N E D R 71 Astoria Police B' n displacement and increase tsunami inundation. Seismic geophysical tsunami wave to arrive onshore. Therefore evacuees should not assume 25 E 79 n 83 M 101 V 73 Departm ent F R A N K L I N A V E P O R T W A Y S T I e A L profiles show that there may be a steep splay fault running nearly that the tsunami event is over until the proper authorities have sounded T 2 9 T H S T Astoria Fire l W B O N D S T L 68 S E 9 T H S T P A M 75 O Departm ent 84 3 3 R D S T the all-clear signal at the end of the evacuation. Figure 5 depicts the I 78 parallel to the CSZ but closer to the Oregon coastline (Figure 1). The U 3 4 T H S T Astoria N 3 R D S T B H 5 T H S T D 100 W C O M M E R C I A L S T M A R I N E D R M BA SIN ST L G R A N D A V E a Fire D ept. N 3 9 T H S T effect of this splay fault moving during a full-rupture CSZ event would be tsunami waves as they arrive at a simulated gauge station. Figure 6 i U Station 2 L COMMERCIAL ST r O C O M M E R C I A L S T o 200 Com m unity depicts the overall wave height and inundation extent for all five t an increase in the amount of vertical displacement of the Pacific C D U A N E S T 30 70 s S T Clatsop County College A H A R R I S O N A V E 3 8 T H S T Ocean, resulting in an increase of the tsunami inundation onshore in scenarios at the profile locations shown on this map. R Y Oregon T 25 S Sheriff Department D U A N E S T f k I N D U e W E X C H A N G E S200 T State Police 69 o e P I E R 3 r EXCHANGE ST y C 59 t 1 2 T H S T G R A N D A V E i l 74 l 60 I R V I N G A V E C i ALAMEDA AVE F R A N K L I N A V E M 2 0 T H S T 1 8 T H S T S P R U A N C E R D 25 L I B E R T Y L N P O R T W A Y D R 85 Cascadia Subduction Zone Setting W G R A N D A V E FRANKLIN AVE 25 Columbia Memorial Hospital 100 72 H A 100 L 30 F L O R A L S T G R A N D A V E S 5 T H S T E 200 E 6 T H S T V 7 T H S T Y A 9 T H S T G R R S V E D H A B U K Y L I N E A Star of the M I R V I N G A V E 200 25 Astoria Sea School E V 100 E 8 T H S T A W V 1 0 T H S T L E A R X I N E J E R O M E A V E 200 G O M T O L W R A' O J Y E J E R O M E A V E A N K E N S I N G T O N A V E P T L A A E A A V E D V S A E N E A M T A A L V E F L O R E N L E X I N G T O N A V E 1 1 T H S T LEXINGTON AVE 53 C E A Astoria 200 V E Com m unity E A G L E L N S T N MADISON AVE College E D 3 R D S T S E E R I E S T W E R N I AG V D A R A A N I A G A R A A V E GLASGOW AVE FLORENCE AVE 100 4 T H S T E R I E A V E 202 7 T H S T 9 T H S T W Ci ty of Asto ria 101 ALAMEDA AVE 200 K L A S K A N I N E A V E I Astoria Middle Astoria L 101 L School I Reservoir A Figure 1: This block diagram depicts the tectonic setting of the region.
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