World Bank Document

Document of The World Bank

Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. ICR000033

IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT ( IBRD-71390 )

ON A

Public Disclosure Authorized LOAN IN THE AMOUNT OF US$5.56 MILLION

THE PEOPLE’S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ALGERIA

FOR AN

URBAN NATURAL HAZARD VULNERABILITY REDUCTION PROJECT

Public Disclosure Authorized

June 27, 2007

Public Disclosure Authorized Sustainable Development Department Middle East and North Africa

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its content may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit = Algerian Dinar (DA) Exchange Rate at Appraisal (07/02) DA 1.00 = US$0.0125 US$1.00 = DA 80.00 Exchange Rate as of 04/19/07 DA 1.00 = US$0.1472 US$1.00 = DA 67.92

FISCAL YEAR

January 1 – December 31

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ANRH National Agency of Water Resources (Agence Nationale pour les Ressources Hydrauliques) CAS Country Assistance Strategy (Stratégie de Coopération pour le Pays) DGPC National Directorate of Civil Protection (Direction Nationale pour la Protection Civile) GDP Gross Domestic Product (Produit Intérieur Brut, PIB) ONM National Meteorological Office (Office National de la Météorologie) PMU Project Management Unit (Unité de Gestion du Project, UGP) QA6 Quality at Entry Assessment (Evaluation de la Qualité Initiale) QAG Quality Assurance Group (Groupe d’Assurance de la Qualité) SDAU Urban Development Master Plan (Schéma Directeur de l’Aménagement Urbain)

Vice President: Daniela Gressani Country Director: Theodore A. Ahlers Sector Manager: Hedi Larbi Project Team Leader: Sateh Chafic El-Arnaout Sateh Chafic El-Arnaout / Abdelghani Inal / ICR Team Leader: Jérôme Chevallier

PEOPLE’S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ALGERIA

Urban Natural Hazard Vulnerability Reduction Project

CONTENTS Page No.

Data Sheet A. Basic Information i B. Key Dates i C. Ratings Summary i D. Sector and Theme Codes ii E. Bank Staff ii F. Results Framework Analysis iii G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs v H. Restructuring v I. Disbursement Graph v

1. Project Context, Development Objectives and Design...... 1 2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes...... 3 3. Assessment of Outcomes ...... 6 4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome...... 8 5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance...... 8 6. Lessons Learned...... 10 7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners...... 11 Annex 1. Project Costs and Financing...... 12 Annex 2. Outputs by Component...... 13 Annex 3. Economic and Financial Analysis ...... 14 Annex 4. Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes...... 15 Annex 5. Beneficiary Survey Results ...... 17 Annex 6. Stakeholder Workshop Report and Results...... 18 Annex 7. Summary of Borrower's ICR and/or Comments on Draft ICR ...... 19 Annex 8. Comments of Cofinanciers and Other Partners/Stakeholders ...... 23 Annex 9. List of Supporting Documents ...... 24 MAP IBRD 32028R

Algeria - i - ICR Urban Natural Hazard June 2007 Vulnerability Reduction Project

DATASHEET

A. Basic Information DZ-URBAN Country: Algeria Project Name: NATURAL HAZARD VULNERABILITY Project ID: P067605 L/C/TF Number(s): IBRD-71390 ICR Date: 06/28/2007 ICR Type: Core ICR GOVERNMENT OF Lending Instrument: ERL Borrower: ALGERIA Original Total USD 88.5M Disbursed Amount: USD 5.6M Commitment: Environmental Category: B Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Interior – Inter-ministerial Coordination Committee Wilaya of Algiers: Project Management Unit + 4 sector directorates (Housing, Urban Planning, Water, Forestry) National Bureau of Meteorology (Office National de la Météorologie, ONM) National Agency for Water Resources (Agence Nationale pour les Ressources Hydrauliques, ANRH) General Directorate for Civil Protection (Direction Générale pour la Protection Civile, DGPC) Cofinanciers and Other External Partners:

B. Key Dates Revised / Actual Process Date Process Original Date Date(s) Concept Review: 03/04/2002 Effectiveness: 02/04/2003 02/04/2003 Appraisal: 05/08/2002 Restructuring(s): Approval: 08/08/2002 Mid-term Review: 03/18/2006 03/18/2006 Closing: 02/28/2007 02/28/2007

C. Ratings Summary C.1 Performance Rating by ICR Outcomes: Moderately Satisfactory Risk to Development Outcome: Moderate Bank Performance: Moderately Satisfactory Borrower Performance: Moderately Satisfactory

Algeria - ii - ICR Urban Natural Hazard June 2007 Vulnerability Reduction Project

C.2 Detailed Ratings of Bank and Borrower Performance (by ICR) Bank Ratings Borrower Ratings Quality at Entry: Moderately Satisfactory Government: Moderately Satisfactory Implementing Quality of Supervision: Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Agency/Agencies: Overall Bank Overall Borrower Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Performance: Performance: C.3 Quality at Entry and Implementation Performance Indicators Implementation QAG Assessments Indicators Rating Performance (if any) Potential Problem Project Quality at Entry Moderately No at any time (Yes/No): (QEA): Unsatisfactory Problem Project at any Quality of Yes None time (Yes/No): Supervision (QSA): DO rating before Moderately

Closing/Inactive status: Satisfactory

D. Sector and Theme Codes Original Actual Sector Code (as % of total Bank financing) Central government administration 9 9 Flood protection 20 20 Forestry 1 1 Other social services 70 70

Theme Code (Primary/Secondary) Access to urban services and housing Primary Primary Natural disaster management Primary Primary Water resource management Primary Primary

E. Bank Staff Positions At ICR At Approval Vice President: Daniela Gressani Jean-Louis Sarbib Country Director: Cecile Fruman Christian Delvoie Sector Manager: Hedi Larbi Hedi Larbi Project Team Leader: Sateh Chafic El-Arnaout Jelena Pantelic ICR Team Leader: Sateh Chafic El-Arnaout ICR Primary Author: Jerome F. Chevallier Abdelghani Inal

Algeria - iii - ICR Urban Natural Hazard June 2007 Vulnerability Reduction Project

F. Results Framework Analysis

Project Development Objectives (from Project Appraisal Document) The Project is to assist the Government in responding to the emergency situation resulting from the November 10, 2001 floods by: (i) reducing urban vulnerability to natural hazards; and (ii) strengthening its national capacity for disaster management.

Revised Project Development Objectives (as approved by original approving authority) N/A

(a) PDO Indicator(s)

Original Target Formally Actual Value Values (from Revised Achieved at Indicator Baseline Value approval Target Completion or documents) Values Target Years PDO-1: Reducing urban vulnerability to natural hazards Indicator 1 : Indicator-1: Ratio of families resettled (5000) of the total number exposed to urban vulnerability (7698) Value quantitative or 0% 65% 0% Qualitative) Date achieved 02/04/2003 02/28/2007 12/31/2006 Comments (incl. % First delivery of housing units will take place by end 2007. achievement) PDO-1: Reducing urban vulnerability to natural hazards Indicator 2 : Indicator-2: Reduction of the housing density prior to the event to the value at the end of the project (person per room) This will be Value achieved when all quantitative or 0% 40% housing units are Qualitative) delivered in 2008. Date achieved 02/04/2003 02/28/2007 12/31/2006 Comments (incl. % achievement) PDO-1: Reducing urban vulnerability to natural hazards Indicator 3 : Indicator-3: Improving the living condition of resettled families - Ratio of families who have access to private bathroom Value quantitative or 18% 100% Not yet completed. Qualitative) Date achieved 02/04/2003 02/28/2007 12/31/2006 Comments (incl. % This will be achieved when all housing units are delivered in 2008. achievement)

Algeria - iv - ICR Urban Natural Hazard June 2007 Vulnerability Reduction Project

PDO-1: Reducing urban vulnerability to natural hazards Indicator 4 : Indicator-4: Reduction of the number of housing at risk prior and after the event. To be determined Value following Study was achieved quantitative or 0% vulnerability study and is fully Qualitative) for Massif satisfactory. Bouzareah. Date achieved 02/04/2003 02/28/2007 12/31/2006 Comments (incl. % achievement) PDO-2: Strengthening the national capacity for disaster management. Indicator 5 : Indicator-1: Installation of a long-range Doppler radar and a network of meteorological observation posts covering the Algiers region. Long-range Doppler radar and network of Value meteorological quantitative or N/A observation posts Installed Qualitative) covering the Algiers region installed and successfully tested. Date achieved 02/04/2003 02/28/2007 12/31/2006 Comments (incl. % achievement)

(b) Intermediate Outcome Indicator(s)

Original Target Actual Value Formally Values (from Achieved at Indicator Baseline Value Revised approval Completion or Target Values documents) Target Years PDO-2: Strengthening the national capacity for disaster management Indicator 1 : Indicator-1: Completion of the Vulnerability reduction plans in the Wilaya of Algiers Vulnerability plans completed and Value officially (quantitative N/A disseminated to Completed. or Qualitative) concerned public authorities and agencies. Date achieved 02/04/2003 02/28/2006 12/31/2006 Comments (incl. % achievement)

Algeria - v - ICR Urban Natural Hazard June 2007 Vulnerability Reduction Project

G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs Actual Date ISR No. DO IP Disbursements Archived (USD millions) 1 09/12/2002 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0.00 2 01/07/2003 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0.00 3 04/15/2003 Satisfactory Satisfactory 3.88 4 07/16/2003 Satisfactory Satisfactory 3.88 5 12/19/2003 Satisfactory Satisfactory 3.88 6 01/14/2004 Satisfactory Satisfactory 3.88 7 06/03/2004 Satisfactory Satisfactory 3.88 8 11/15/2004 Satisfactory Satisfactory 3.88 9 01/28/2005 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 3.88 Moderately 10 06/10/2005 Moderately Satisfactory 4.00 Unsatisfactory 11 07/22/2005 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 4.67 Moderately 12 09/28/2005 Moderately Satisfactory 4.84 Unsatisfactory 13 03/31/2006 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 5.50 14 09/28/2006 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 5.56

H. Restructuring (if any) Not Applicable

I. Disbursement Profile

Algeria - 1 - ICR Urban Natural Hazard June 2007 Vulnerability Reduction Project

1. Project Context, Development Objectives and Design (this section is descriptive, taken from other documents, e.g., PAD/ISR, not evaluative)

1.1 Context at Appraisal

The reforms launched by the Government in the mid 1990s, including fiscal stabilization and economic liberalization, generated a GDP growth of about 3 percent par annum. Insecurity in rural areas during the so-called “black decade of violence” (1992-2002) had contributed to an acceleration of rural out- migration, which in turn had worsened acute problems of housing and urban services, particularly in Algiers, the capital city. The recurrence of natural disasters, resulting from flooding and seismic activity, increased the vulnerability of the population, particularly its poorest segments, and required costly rehabilitation programs.

On November 10, 2001, fourteen provinces (wilayas)1 in the Northern part of the country (cf. Map IBRD 32028R, at the end of this report) suffered from flash flood of mud and water following torrential rains in the Bouzareah massif. The flash flood resulted in more than 800 deaths and substantial material damages, estimated at about US$400 million. Large landmasses were destabilized by the rain, causing land movement and excessive mudflows. Carrying everything in their path, these voluminous deposits of mud and debris ended up in heavily built urban areas such as the low income Bab el Oued and Oued Koriche districts in Algiers. Vulnerable groups were the most affected by the disaster.

Damage to housing was the most serious accounting for about 33 percent of total damage. The storm water drainage system and other public infrastructure such as roads, bridges, ports, and schools suffered heavy losses as well. The disaster exacerbated ongoing environmental degradation, including deforestation of the protective vegetation cover.

Algeria is exposed to numerous natural hazards, including earthquakes and floods. Destruction due to natural hazards is compounded by rapid urbanization and environmental degradation. The urbanization rate doubled between 1966 and 2000 to about 60 percent. Inadequate maintenance of buildings in low- income neighborhoods contributed to urban vulnerability. Poorly designed and obsolete storm and sanitary drainage systems further accelerated the destabilization of buildings and infrastructure. Uncontrolled development contributed to deforestation. When the floods hit Algeria, the Government was reviewing its housing strategy and envisaged a shift from supply-driven, public sector dominated to market oriented policies. It also sought to reduce the burden of public subsidies in the sector.

Rationale for Bank assistance. A Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) was being developed when the severe flooding occurred. An interim CAS note indicated that key issues to be addressed by the strategy included low-income housing, illegal residential construction, urban services and unemployment. The 2003 CAS proposed three priorities for Bank assistance, including support to the Government’s efforts to articulate and implement a strategy for better service delivery, particularly for water supply, housing environmental services (including waste management), and human development.

In the past two decades, the Bank supported several projects in Algeria for post-disaster reconstruction, which brought about a consensus that the focus of the Bank’s disaster assistance should shift to long-term

1 Alger, Tipaza, Chleff, Tiaret, Boumerdes, Oran, Tizi-Ouzou, Tlemcen, Aïn Temouchent, Saïda, Ain Defla, Mostaganem, Mascara and Relizane.

Algeria - 2 - ICR Urban Natural Hazard June 2007 Vulnerability Reduction Project risk and vulnerability reduction. Despite the significant amount of assistance provided for disaster mitigation and the success of past Bank interventions in post-disaster reconstruction, neither the Government nor the Bank had developed a strategy for hazard reduction. The social, economic and political consequences of the November 2001 disaster and the high vulnerability of main cities highlighted the need to develop such a strategy. The rationale for Bank's involvement should be viewed in the context of Algeria's natural hazard vulnerability, its request to the Bank for assistance, as well as the Bank's experience in that area. For the operation under review, the Bank, in collaboration with the Government, formulated a strategy aimed at reducing urban vulnerability to natural disasters and strengthening national capacity for disaster management.

1.2 Original Project Development Objectives (PDO) and Key Indicators (as approved)

This project had two main objectives: (i) to reduce vulnerability of most seriously affected urban areas after November 1001 flooding; and (ii) to strengthen the capacity of national institutions for disaster management. The first objective was to be achieved by resettling the people who had been affected by the floods and providing protection directly to about 30,000 people and indirectly to more than 250,000 people living in downstream districts. The second objective was to be achieved through strengthening early warning systems, improving the means of intervention by risk management of social protection organizations, and developing detailed plans to reduce the vulnerability of urban zones in the Algiers metropolitan area.

The Board documents did not include a list of performance indicators. Indicators were provided in the implementation manual, but were only concerned with physical aspects. There were no indicators for the institutional aspects of the project.

1.3 Revised PDO (as approved by original approving authority) and Key Indicators, and reasons/justification

The objectives of the project were not changed.

1.4 Main Beneficiaries

The main beneficiaries of the project were the people directly affected by the disaster and those located downstream, who could face similar risks. Other beneficiaries included three agencies in charge of natural risks prevention and management, the National Meteorological Office (ONM), the National Directorate of Civil Protection (DGPC) and the National Agency of Water Resources (ANRH), as well as the local governments in the Algiers metropolitan area. The project was designed to reinforce their capacity in the area of risk assessment, prevention and management. Finally, the Government treasury was to benefit from the project through a reduction of the need to provide for costly rehabilitation after natural disasters.

1.5 Original Components

The project included three components, capacity building at the national level, emergency physical works and project implementation management.

The first component (total cost estimated at US$9.55 million, of which US$7.65 million to be financed by the Bank) was designed to reinforce the capacity of national institutions to anticipate natural disasters and mitigate their consequences. It included studies for the preparation of an action plan, training and equipment. The objective of the first study was to design and implement an integrated monitoring and

Algeria - 3 - ICR Urban Natural Hazard June 2007 Vulnerability Reduction Project early warning system for meteorological risks in the Algiers region. The second study aimed at a better understanding of the natural phenomenon that caused the November 2001 disaster. The third study sought to identify risks and outline solutions to reduce them in the Algiers region. Training was to be provided to ONM, DGPC and ANRH staff to strengthen their capacity to forecast, prevent and mitigate natural disasters. Equipment included radar and information technology for improved weather forecasting for ONM, the modernization of emergency assistance equipment for DGPC, and computer software for ANRH.

Under the second component (total cost estimated at US$114.9 million, of which US$80.45 million to be financed by the Bank), urgent physical works were to be carried out to restore services and facilities in the areas affected by the floods in Algiers. These works included the construction of about 10 flood retention basins, corrective adjustments to rivers in the area to reduce the speed of water, tree planting in an area of about 600 ha, and the construction of about 5,000 housing units and related social facilities for the families who had been affected by the flood or lived on vulnerable sites in the area.

The total cost of the third component (project implementation management) was estimated at US$0.61 million, of which US$0.15 million to be financed by the Bank).

1.6 Revised Components

The components were not revised, but with vastly increased oil revenues, in February 2006 the government requested the cancellation of an amount of US$77.68 million from the loan, thus reducing it from US$88.45 million to US$10.77 million. The revised loan amount financed a number of contracts, which were committed prior to December 31, 2005, including for the studies under the first component (US$3.2 million), part of the reforestation program, and the studies for the 5,000 housing units under the second component (US$6.91 million), and equipment for the project management unit under the third component (US$0.17 million). The loan was reduced, but the total cost of the project increased to US$168.33 million, mostly due to standard improvements in the housing sub-component. In the end, the Government only disbursed US$5.56 million, and the loan was fully reimbursed earlier than scheduled. The Government is now financing all initial project components from its own budget. The objectives of the project and the closing date of the loan were not changed.

The decision of the Government to reduce the loan did not change its commitment to complete the project as originally defined. The Government recognized the value added of Bank support, particularly its technical and institutional advice. In line with its decision to reduce its external debt burden, it opted to use its own resources for the infrastructure components of the project.

1.7 Other significant changes

See above.

2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes

2.1 Project Preparation, Design and Quality at Entry

The project was quickly prepared. The first mission visited Algeria in December 2001. The project was appraised in May 2002 and approved in August 2002. The design of the project took into account the lessons learned during the preparation and early implementation of the Ain Temouchent Emergency Earthquake Recovery Project approved in June 2000. Key lessons included the importance of a close inter-agency coordination mechanism at the local and national level, simplified procedures for accelerated

Algeria - 4 - ICR Urban Natural Hazard June 2007 Vulnerability Reduction Project project implementation, and the need to reinforce the capacity of relevant agencies to better prevent and manage the consequences of natural disasters.

The project was prepared as a response to an emergency. It did not address the emergency situation as such, however. It sought to reduce the vulnerability of the population to future disasters. The instrument selected may not have been the best one for the intended purpose. An investment operation would have been more appropriate for the project development objectives, as they were defined.

The project provided a comprehensive package of assistance to Algeria, including tools for better preparedness to natural disasters, and emergency works in the areas affected by the flood, to mitigate the damages suffered by the population and prevent the occurrence of similar losses in the future. It helped develop a systematic plan to reduce the vulnerability of the area and populations struck by the flood of November 2001. The project built upon the rapid response provided by the Algerian authorities, who were able to provide a shelter to most of the people directly affected within a few weeks of the disaster. It sought to address the issue of unplanned urban development, which had aggravated the consequences of a centennial rainfall.

A sociological analysis was carried out to better understand the characteristics of the affected and at risk population, including their activities, income, levels of education, size of households, housing conditions, and community aspects. The local authorities were closely involved in the analysis. The work done served to better understand the process of neighborhood densification. The analysis provided the basis for the resettlement action plan. Three principles were agreed upon in this plan: involuntary resettlement should be avoided as much as possible, the resettled population should be allowed to rebuild their livelihoods to a level at least equal to what they had before, and the local population should be consulted and invited to participate fully in plan implementation.

As indicated above, the project was in line with the interim CAS note and the CAS, which was under preparation at the time of project processing and was eventually approved in June 2003.

The project was designed as a comprehensive response to a natural disaster, including works for reducing the vulnerability of the population to flooding in the affected and at risk urban areas, and a series of activities for improving the capacity of national institutions to prevent and mitigate similar events. The project design was fully endorsed by the authorities and agencies concerned. It was fully in line with the objectives of the project, as mentioned in the Government request for assistance after the disaster. In 2003, however, QAG reviewed the quality at entry of the project and concluded that the housing component was unlikely to bring about expected benefits (see below).

Several agencies were involved in the response to the natural disaster and in the preparation of the project. Their efforts were well coordinated through two committees, which were established during the preparation of the project, one at the national level, and the other at the regional level. Social and environmental issues were adequately addressed. A sociological analysis was carried out, and an environmental management framework was prepared, indicating the mitigation measures to be developed during the course of the project and the linkages with the vulnerability reduction study financed under the project.

Three risks were identified: implementation delays due to inexperience of implementing agencies and poor coordination among them, waning commitment of the authorities to enforce the resettlement strategies, and deterioration in the security situation of the country.

The establishment of the two coordination mechanisms and the preparation of a project implementation manual before loan approval, as was done for the Ain Temouchent project, helped mitigate the first two

Algeria - 5 - ICR Urban Natural Hazard June 2007 Vulnerability Reduction Project risks. The implementation manual defined precisely the roles of each agency. The relocation plans were to be prepared in close association with the population concerned as well and close supervision was planned. The third risk did not materialize, as security conditions in the country improved during project implementation. On the other hand, the analysis did not mention the risk that the housing component might not be effective in reaching the intended beneficiaries. The risk analysis was moderately satisfactory.

Quality at entry rating by QAG

QAG reviewed the project in June 2003 and rated the quality at entry as marginally satisfactory (3 rating). The QAG review concluded that the housing program, to which the bulk of project funds was allocated, carried a high risk. A previous loan in the sector had been closed with an unsatisfactory status, because housing policies were not effective in reaching the poor and were not sustainable. The QAG review considered that the housing program was not thoroughly appraised, and the risks were not fully acknowledged. QAG concluded that the emergency designation of the project should not imply a lessened conceptual rigor.

2.2 Implementation

Implementation was delayed, because the Government was slow in recruiting staff for the project coordination unit, and implementing agencies were not familiar with Bank procedures. Initial delays were aggravated by the mobilization of staff from some of the key implementing agencies during several months to provide assistance following the Boumerdes earthquake in May 2003. The Bank was also slow in responding to non objection requests during the first year of project implementation, but took action to correct this problem by assigning a procurement specialist and a financial management specialist to its Algiers’ office. This, combined with adequate staffing of the project coordination unit, contributed to accelerating the pace of project implementation. Bank review of procurement has contributed to improving the quality of works and services provided.

Local governments have been extensively associated to the studies carried out under the project. They have been sensitized to the risks of natural disasters and are now better prepared to cope with them.

The decision of the Algerian Government to reduce the amount of the loan had no impact on project implementation. The authorities at the national and local levels were strongly committed to the project and were closely involved in its implementation.

2.3 Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Design, Implementation and Utilization

The monitoring and evaluation system was insufficiently developed at the appraisal stage due to the implementation of this operation. The project implementation manual provided a number of indicators, mostly concerning the physical aspects of the project. The manual discussed activities required for establishing early warning systems, but did not provide any indicator to assess their sustainability. The manual remained silent on prevention through a better identification of at-risk areas (which were the focus of two extensive studies financed by the project), or on effective integration of risk analysis in the planning system and the regulatory framework. However, it is worth noting that during supervision missions, these aspects were extensively reviewed and discussed with the Steering Committee and executing agencies. They all became aware of the need to continue the efforts made to define and implement of an institutional framework, which would better address natural disaster risks in the Algiers region.

Algeria - 6 - ICR Urban Natural Hazard June 2007 Vulnerability Reduction Project

2.4 Safeguard and Fiduciary Compliance

The preparation and implementation of the relocation plan was prepared in close association with the population concerned. Six easily accessible sites were identified and the infrastructure and housing units designed at those sites will eventually be of better quality than in the damaged and at risk areas. The work done by design firms was extensively reviewed by the two sociologists hired by the project coordination unit and by the local consultant recruited by the Bank office.

Following the recruitment of the procurement specialist and the financial management specialist in the Bank office in Algiers, fiduciary issues were appropriately addressed.

2.5 Post-completion Operation / Next Phase

The risks of natural disasters, including floods and earthquakes, are high in Algeria. It is important therefore for Algeria to develop and implement early warning systems and to build up its capacities to cope with the consequences of major natural or industrial disasters. Specific construction regulations are required to prevent major disasters due to earthquakes. These regulations are yet to be fully developed and enforced, however.

3. Assessment of Outcome

3.1 Relevance of Objectives, Design and Implementation

The objectives of the project were highly relevant to the country situation and its development priorities at the time of project approval. They are highly relevant now, as well. The high occurrence of natural disasters has sensitized the Algerian authorities to the need of a broad strategy aimed at reducing urban vulnerability. The project has helped them put in place a series of measures for that purpose. Coming after a number of post disaster reconstruction projects supported by the Bank, the project under review sought to put emphasis on improved risk prevention and management.

3.2 Achievement of Project Development Objectives

The first objective was to reduce the vulnerability of the urban zones most affected by the November 2001 flooding. This objective will be substantially achieved when works under the project are completed. The early warning system is in place. Reforestation is underway to reduce the risks of flooding in the Bouzareah range and in downstream areas. The bidding process for the civil works, including flood retention basins, is about to be completed. Construction of 4000 housing units is underway and the first units are expected to be available in late 2007. Thanks to the extensive work carried out during project implementation, it is highly likely that the intended beneficiaries, including the victims of the flood and vulnerable families, will actually move to these units. Local authorities have been sensitized to the need for improved management of urban areas and increased attention to environment issues. The contribution of the Bank helped the Government improve the design of the works, which are now being implemented by the Government with its own resources.

The second objective was to improve the ability of Algerian institutions at the national level to cope with natural disasters. This objective has been achieved through the strengthening of three national agencies. They have now the human and technical resources to address the consequences of severe flooding and other natural disasters. Their capacity to cope with earthquakes had been already reinforced through the Ain Temouchent project. Early warning and monitoring systems have been developed and are in place. Detailed vulnerability assessments were prepared and are guiding city planning and investment decisions

Algeria - 7 - ICR Urban Natural Hazard June 2007 Vulnerability Reduction Project in the Algiers region. Also, the recommendations resulting from the various vulnerability studies are being incorporated into the “Schéma Directeur de l’Aménagement Urbain (SDAU)”, and the land use and coastal management plans for the metropolitan area of Algiers. Finally, local authorities have been sensitized on ways to address natural calamities efficiently. The Bank’s contribution, both financial and technical, was essential in the satisfactory achievement of this objective.

3.3 Efficiency

Rate of return: not applicable. It is important to mention, however, that the cost in human lives and physical damages due to the flash flood was much higher than the cost of the project. Improved prevention and mitigation of natural disasters is significantly less costly than reconstruction after damages are incurred.

3.4 Justification of Overall Outcome Rating

The operation is rated as moderately satisfactory

The project provided a comprehensive response to the problems created by the catastrophic flooding of November 2001. Tools have been developed and early warning systems are now in place. The capacity for rapid intervention in case of natural disasters has been strengthened. Plans to reduce the vulnerability of urban zones in the Algiers region have been prepared. Works for reducing the vulnerability of the urban zones most affected and at-risk are underway. Steps are being taken to improve the preparedness of communes to natural disasters through the establishment of communal units for risk management. While the project did not seek to reform the housing policies of the Government, it contributed to a better understanding of the housing situation of the affected families through a comprehensive sociological study that was carried out in a participatory way. The recommendations of this study have been now internalized. Because of the delays in project implementation, however, institutional arrangements for the effective use of instruments developed with project support need to be further reinforced. Moreover, these arrangements should be extended to other urban areas in the country.

3.5 Overarching Themes, Other Outcomes and Impacts

(a) Poverty Impacts, Gender Aspects, and Social Development

The impact of the project on living standards improvement of targeted population will be substantial. Their living conditions, which were extremely precarious before the project, will indeed be much improved following completion of the housing program. Women and children will benefit from a greatly improved and secure environment. Great attention has been devoted to provide up-to-date social infrastructure.

The identification of vulnerable areas and their protection will prevent poor families from squatting in these areas. An inventory of buildings at risk has been carried out in the project area and works are planned to reinforce them. An analysis of inadequate housing schemes has been completed, with the objective of relocating all people living there. More generally, the early warning systems developed with project support will ensure that the people most vulnerable to natural disasters, who are also among the poorest, are better protected.

(b) Institutional Change/Strengthening

This project has contributed to the establishment of a sustainable coordination framework for disaster management and prevention among agencies and across sectors. The most important impact of the

Algeria - 8 - ICR Urban Natural Hazard June 2007 Vulnerability Reduction Project project has been the sensitization of the national and local authorities to the need for reducing risks related to natural disasters through a better preparedness and an improved management of urban areas. Tools developed and equipment provided with project support will allow agencies concerned to better prevent and cope with natural disasters. These results should now be extended to other urban areas.

Though the project was not designed to make a contribution to housing reform, it helped the authorities improve their approach to the resettlement of vulnerable groups. It is, therefore, very likely that the intended beneficiaries will be resettled into the new housing units, because of the participatory studies conducted with project support. Also, pressures in the housing sector have abated during the project implementation period, thanks to a large construction program sponsored by the Government.

Another outcome of the project is its success in reinforcing coordination among a number of entities.

3.6 Summary of Findings of Beneficiary Survey and/or Stakeholder Workshops

Not applicable.

4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome

The risk is rated as moderate.

Coordination among agencies in charge of mitigating the impact of natural disasters improved over time. It is now well established and is likely to stay that way, at least in the Algiers wilaya, because of the strong leadership of the governor. The importance of strong leadership from the local authorities is well understood. There was concern that the commitment of the authorities to the project’s objectives would diminish once the immediate consequences of the disaster had been taken care of. This was not the case, however. Repeated occurrence of natural disasters is a constant reminder to the authorities that they have to be well prepared. With project support, the authorities are doing their best to resettle the population, which had been affected by the flood or were at risk. They have also done their best to reduce the vulnerability of urban settlements in the larger area affected by the flood.

5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance

5.1 Bank Performance

(a) Bank Performance in Ensuring Quality at Entry