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Yuexiu Property Rating BUY Snapshot on This Guangzhou Residential Market Leader 26 April 2012

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Yuexiu Property Rating BUY Snapshot on This Guangzhou Residential Market Leader 26 April 2012 Equity Research Company Report Yuexiu Property Rating BUY Snapshot on this Guangzhou residential market leader 26 April 2012 Philip Tse, CFA Yuexiu Property (“Yuexiu”) has achieved 31% sales target run-rate in (852) 2683 3211 1Q12, the highest among peers, we believe. Further, it has also [email protected] captured the highest residential market shares of 15.3% in Sector Property Guangzhou during the period. Given the strong sales performance, we estimate unrecognized sales have reached Rmb10.4bn (including Key Data Rmb7.3bn brought forward from FY11) which have fully locked-in our Ticker 123.HK Price (25 Apr) HK$1.71 estimated FY12 revenue and provide strong foundation for revenue Target price HK$2.12 growth. We reiterate BUY rating on the counter with target price at HK$2.12 (old: HK1.87), based on 55% discount. 52W High HK$1.73 52W Low HK$0.94 Mkt. Cap. (HK$mn) 15,877 Highest run-rate among peers and highest Guangzhou market share. Mkt. Cap. (US$mn) 2,036 Yuexiu has achieved the highest sales target run-rate among peers that we Total Issued Share (mn) 9,285 Avg. 3mths t/o (HK$mn) 42 monitor for 1Q12 with total contracted sales amounted to Rmb3.1bn, representing 31% of its full year sales target of Rmb10bn. In addition to its Shareholdings Structure Guangzhou Yue Xiu Holdings Limited 49.88% impressive sales performance, Yuexiu is the residential market leader in Free float 50.12% Guangzhou with residential contracted area reached 167k sqm, a market share of 15.3%. Price performance HK$ mn Landbank diversifying to 11.2mn sqm. As at end-11, the company had 2.0 240 1.5 180 29 projects under different stages of development located in 9 cities including 1.0 120 Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhongshan, Jiangmen, Hong Kong, Hangzhou, Wuhan, 0.5 60 Shenyang and Yantai with a total attributable GFA of 11.2mn sqm which we 0.0 0 04/11 06/11 08/11 10/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 believe is sufficient for development in next 8 years. Moreover, the company Volume (RHS) Yuexiu property (LHS) has diversified about 50% of its landbank out of Guangzhou. HSI (rebased) (LHS) % 1m 3m 6m Unrecognized sales reached Rmb10.4bn. Strong sales momentum and 123.HK 10.3 32.6 48.7 HSI (0.1) 1.0 8.3 highest run-rate among peers in 1Q12 also provides high earnings visibility and high revenue lock-in ratio. The total unrecognized contracted sales amounted to Next year forward PER x about Rmb7.3bn as at end-11. Including the Rmb3.12bn achieved in 1Q12, the 9 8 M+1SD 7 total unrecognized sales reached Rmb10.4bn which have fully locked-in our 6 Mean 5 estimated FY12 revenue for the property development segment. 4 M-1SD 3 2 1 Valuation and recommendation. Taking into account the landbank acquired 0 in 2011 as well as a faster than expected sales pipeline, we adjusted our 03/10 05/10 07/10 09/10 11/10 01/11 03/11 05/11 07/11 09/11 11/11 01/12 03/12 Source: HKEx, Bloomberg, Company data & ICBCI estimate on the company’s NAV to HK$43.8bn or HK$4.72 (old: HK$4.16) per estimates share. We believe the reputable brand in Guangzhou helps Yuexiu to capture more market share under current market consolidation as well as remaining purchase quota after the execution of home-purchase restriction for a whole year. We reiterate our BUY rating on Yuexiu with target price at HK$2.12 (old: HK$1.87), representing 55% discount to NAV compared with peers’ average at 54%. Valuation Statistics Core Core Core Net debt/ YE Turnover Net profit profit EPS CEPS CPER PBR Yield ROE equity 31 Dec HK$ mn HK$ mn HK$ mn HK$ chg % x x % % % 2009A 4,671 (607) 439 0.06 1.525.0 0.9 5.4 3.5 53.2 2010A 5,634 919 725 0.10 57.3 15.4 0.7 0.0 5.2 64.7 2011A 9,569 5,137 1,420 0.15 57.9 9.1 0.6 5.0 7.9 77.2 2012F 10,534 1,780 1,780 0.19 25.3 7.3 0.6 5.5 8.5 76.4 2013F 14,225 2,094 2,094 0.23 17.7 6.2 0.5 6.5 9.5 71.2 Source: Company, ICBCI estimates For further product information please contact ICBC International Research Limited at (852) 2683 3888 Please read the important notice on last page Yuexiu Property - 26 April 2012 1 Equity Research Market leader in Guangzhou Though a number of developers missed their sales target in 2011, Yuexiu Contracted sales target at successfully completed its sales target plan for three consecutive years from Rmb10bn 2009 to 2011. In 2011, Yuexiu achieved a contracted sales amount of Rmb9.054bn with contracted area of 608.8k sqm, representing an ASP of Rmb14,900 psm. Contracted sales breakdown in FY11 Contracted sales amount Contracted GFA Contracted ASP Project (Rmb mn) (k sqm) (Rmb psm) Guangzhou Projects Jiang Nan New Mansion 26,100 1,052 40,300 Springland Garden 30,200 722 23,900 Ling Nan Riverside 38,200 796 20,800 Starry Winking 3,600 134 37,800 Huadu Glade Greenland 12,500 95 7,600 Paradiso Homeland 9,600 237 24,600 Rayon Jadin 12,800 272 21,200 Cong Hua Glade Village 26,300 231 8,800 Southern Le Sand 113,700 994 8,700 Fortune Century Square 36,800 1,048 28,500 Starry Wenhua 29,700 597 20,100 Starry Golden Sands 18,000 245 13,600 Projects out of Guangzhou Jiangmen Starry Regal Court 23,700 174 7,300 Yantai Starry Phoenix 23,000 156 6,800 Shenyang Yuexiu Hill Lake 8,500 91 10,700 Other Projects 15,600 351 22,500 Investment Properties 63,000 875 13,900 Sub-total 491,300 8,070 16,400 Popark Plaza 117,200 984 8,400 Total 608,500 9,054 14,900 Source: Company data and ICBCI estimates Yuexiu has set its FY12 contracted sales target at Rmb10bn, about 10% growth from the amount achieved in FY11 (Rmb9.1bn). The company plans to launch 8 new projects in 2012 with 4 in Shanghai, 2 in Zhongshan, 1 in Yuhan and 1 in Hangzhou. This will bring the number of projects on sale in 2012 to 16. Contracted sales achieved and target in FY09 – FY12 Sales target Sales achieved Year (Rmb bn) (Rmb bn) 2009 6.1 6.1 2010 7.9 8.9 2011 9.0 9.1 2012 10.0 - Source: Company data and ICBCI estimates The total estimated saleable resources for FY12 will reach 1.9mn sqm (or about Saleable resources reached Rmb24bn assuming ASP of about Rmb12,500 psm). Together with other Rmb27bn non-core investment properties available for sales of approximately Rmb3bn, the total available for sales resources will reach Rmb27bn. With reference to historical sale-through rate of about 60%, we believe Yuexiu can easily achieve its full year sales target. Yuexiu Property - 26 April 2012 2 Equity Research Saleable resources available for 2012 Launch Available for sale Estimated sales Project Location Type* time (k sqm) GFA (k sqm) Fortune Apartment Liwan, Guangzhou S/C 1Q 2012 79,000 73,500 Southern Le Sand Nansha, Guangzhou R 2011 263,000 142,400 Huadu Glade Greenland Huadu, Guangzhou R 2011 60,000 35,700 Jiangmen Starry Regal Beixin, Jiangmen R 2011 114,000 56,900 Zhongshan Starry Winking Nanqu, Zhongshan R 1Q 2012 115,000 62,100 Zhongshan Starry Junting Shiqi, Zhongshan R 1Q 2012 109,000 38,300 Shenyang Yuexiu Hill Lake Xinqu, Shenyang R 2011 74,000 33,300 Fortune Century Square Tianhe, Guangzhou O/S 2011 71,000 36,300 Yantai Starry Phoenix Zhifu, Yantai R 2011 95,000 57,200 Starry Golden Sands Baiyun, Guangzhou R 2011 114,000 52,900 Starry Wenhua Panyu, Guangzhou R 2011 104,000 26,100 Starry Wenyu Panyu, Guangzhou R May 2012 89,000 22,300 Starry Wenhan Panyu, Guangzhou R May 2012 109,000 27,300 Panyu Southern District Panyu, Guangzhou R Q3/Q4 2012 190,000 51,700 Wuhan Qiankou Project Qiaokou, Wuhan R Q3/Q4 2012 80,000 32,000 Hangzhou Lin’an Land Linan, Hangzhou R Q4 2012 128,000 110,100 Others - - 79,100 74,000 Investment Properties C - 81,000 29,100 TOTAL - 1,954,100 961,200 Source: Company data and ICBCI estimates * S: Serviced Apartments C: Commercial O: Office R: Residential 1Q12 update - Highest run-rate among peers In 1Q12, the company has newly launched two projects located in Zhongshan, Contracted sales amount of namely Zhongshan Starry Winking and Zhongshan Starry Junting as well as 1 Rmb3.12bn project in Guangzhou, namely, Guangzhou Fortune Apartment. Up to 1Q12, including sales of non-residential products including commercial, non-core investment properties and other serviced apartments, the total contracted sales amount of Yuexiu has reached Rmb3.12bn, up 118% yoy. Contracted sales breakdown in 1Q12 Contracted sales amount Contracted GFA Contracted ASP Project (Rmb mn) (k sqm) (Rmb psm) Guangzhou projects Lingnan Riverside 61.93 2,999 20,650 Conghua Glade Village 0.72 110 6,545 Starry Winking 60.13 1,301 46,218 Starry Golden Sands 170.11 13,564 12,541 Starry Wenhua 112.15 5,394 20,792 Huadu Glade Greenland 59.7 9,433 6,329 Southern Le Sand 443.03 66,498 6,662 Fortune Apartment 873.37 49,442 17,665 Fortune Century Square 211.87 7,956 26,630 Investment Properties 648.79 38,608 16,805 Others 3.03 326 9,294 Sub-total (Guangzhou ) 2,644.83 195,631 13,519 Other Guangdong projects Jiangmen Starry Regal Court 204.65 32,728 6,253 Zhongshan Starry Winking 217.46 43,013 5,056 Sub-total (Guangdong Province) 3,066.94 271,372 11,302 Projects out of Guangdong Province Shenyang Yuexiu Hill Lake 7.5 973 7,708 Yantai Starry Phoenix 26.04 4,070 6,398 Sub-total (Out of Guangdong) 33.54 5,043 6,651 TOTAL 3,100.48 276,415 11,217 Source: Company data and ICBCI estimates Yuexiu Property - 26 April 2012 3 Equity Research Further, the company has also achieved the highest sales target run-rate for Run-rate of 31%, highest in 1Q12.
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