• Abstract and Figures
• Public Full-text

REDE Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. USA JEAN-PASCAL PICY April 2007 The 2007’ French Presidential Election www.kas.de/usa www.kas.de SPEECH OF JEAN-PASCAL PICY, SENIOR ADVISER TO FORMER PRIME MINISTER OF FRANCE, JEAN-PIERRE RAFFARIN ET MAÎTRE DE CONFÉRENCE AT SCIENCES PO There are two ways to deal with the com- outgoing Government, the two former Prime ing French presidential election. The first Minister Alain Juppe and Jean-Pierre Raf- is to focus on the appearances. And there farin, more than 500 French Representants is a good chance that, according to this and Senators, thousands of local council- method, Nicolas Sarkozy will be the next lors. The very popular and respected French president. Simone Veil, a former French Social Affairs secretary and President of the European Let me remind you of all the facts that Parliament, who as a Jewish child survived strengthen this thesis: to the death camps during World War II, has campaigned for him. Even President - For more than three months, all the polls, Chirac brought him a relatively clear sup- more than 80 of them, placed him at head port a few weeks ago and his wife, the very in the first ballot with around 30 Percent of popular French First Lady appeared in one the votes. He wins in the second ballot too, of his meetings last week in the city of against the socialist Ségolène Royal, with Lyon. 54 Percent versus 46 Percent, with an in- creasing difference for a few weeks; If you consider all these facts, the intrinsic weakness of the Left this year and of her - Moreover, Nicolas Sarkozy is considered to candidate, there is no doubt that the For- be the best prepared candidate and proba- mer French Homeland Secretary should win bly the most competent too. And even the the election and I could stop my lecture at people who don’t like him agree with that; this point, thank you for your attention and go for a walk in Washington DC with my - He is the most powerful candidate too, friends Gabriela and Norbert! since he succeeded in taking control of the ruling UMP party more than two years ago But there is a second way to deal with this and transformed it in an electoral machine election. It consists in paying attention to dedicated only to his success. The UMP has others kind of facts or informations that all the largest amount of public money because tend to demonstrate that the success of of his overwhelming success in the general Nicolas Sarkozy is all but certain. For in- election of 2002. Membership in the party stance, according to a recent poll (BVA 29 increased dramatically for two year up to mars 2007), only 29 Percent of the people more than 300.000, three times the usual wish the election of Nicolas Sarkozy versus number for a ruling French party; 52 Percent. The situation is the same for the other main candidates. Only 31 Percent - Last but not least, Nicolas Sarkozy suc- of the voters are in favour of the election of ceeded in gathering all the Right around the socialist Ségolène ROYAL (versus 50 him. All the “barons”, the members of the Percent) and 29 Percent wish a success for 2 Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. François Bayrou against 47 Percent. In fact, way to delegate confidence, national sover- there is no fancy for any of the candidates eignty and legal authority to one person. In and it is a paradox of this campaign that is, most others democracies, the executive USA by the way, very popular according to the power is the privilege of a Prime minister JEAN-PASCAL PICY number of people gathering in the meetings who’s the head of the party which won the and the huge audience of the TV pro- general elections. There is not the same April 2007 grammes dedicated to the election. kind of relationship between a Prime minis- ter and the people. In England, Germany, www.kas.de/usa The emergence of a third candidate appears Italy and Spain, even if the political system www.kas.de to be the main characteristic of this election is becoming more and more presidential up to that point and it is not possible to un- and centred around the Prime minister, the derstand the coming scrutiny without trying elections’ first objective is to make a choice to explain this phenomena. Furthermore, between two programs, two parties or coali- the high level of Jean-Marie le Pen and the tions. The Prime minister, at the beginning, presence of six candidates members of the is just one representent among many others “Far Left” renders particularly difficult to elected by a few thousands voters. predict the result. In France, as in the US, the president has to In fact, technically, a surprise is still possi- seduce millions of voters to get the job. ble and many pollsters refuse to dismiss the Therefore, the personality of the candidates, possibility of a weird final without Ségolène their personal values, their way of living, Royal and/or Nicolas Sarkozy. According to their family, their attitude, the way they Gérard le Gall, a close poll adviser of talk, smile, behave with their entourage are Ségolène Royal, the political situation is an as important as their program. First of all, “ice rink” and everybody could fall. Never- people vote for a man or a woman, to rep- theless, he observed that there was “com- resent themselves, to embody the Nation municating vessels” between Mrs Royal and and to serve their interests. That last point Mr Bayrou that could be fatal to the socialist is probably the one which distinguish the candidate. more the French and the US President. In a “law centred” society like France, the Presi- At this point, the proportion of the voters dent has the power to pass any bill he who have made their choice is contained wants, even sometimes major changes in between 53 Percent and 58 Percent. And it the Constitution either by convoking a ref- seems that a large part of the others will erendum or turning to the Parliament. The decide in the polling booth. The last days checks and balances exist but are not as should therefore be decisive. developed as in the US. The Constitutional Counsel, the National Assembly, the Senate, How is it possible to come out of that politi- the local authorities are better to slow down cal smog? What is exactly at stake in this the Presidential power than to oppose it. election? Who are the main candidates? The main consequence of the pre-eminency What is their opinion of the relationship be- of the presidency is huge expectations for tween France and the USA? I propose to the People. answer briefly to all of these questions but first of all it could be useful to remind you of In France, you are not only voting for the the basics of French politics and especially one who should preserve the best democ- the role of the presidential election in the racy but also for the one who promises to French democracy. improve the most your personal standards of living ! This is one reason of the increase I) A DECISIVE MOMENT IN FRENCH POLI- of public spending for thirty years and, ac- TICS cording to that criterion, the present elec- tion is true to itself if you look at the pro- The presidential election is the main political gramme of the different candidates! event, both in France and in the US. These two countries have in common this special 3 Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. Nevertheless, this French presidential elec- For years, the idea of a “French social mo- tion is very particular and it is needed to del” was a useful excuse not to deal with explain why if you want to understand what many problems such as enduring unem- USA is at stake and the meaning of the result. ployment, uncontrolled immigration and de- JEAN-PASCAL PICY velopment of ghettos, closing of factories... II) A BREAK IN FRENCH POLITICAL HIS- April 2007 TORY Growing discontent provoked the political earthquake of 2002 materialized by the www.kas.de/usa 1. The end of a political cycle begun in the qualifying of Jean-Marie le Pen for the sec- www.kas.de 1970s ond round of the election. The main characteristic of this election is The next election will introduce a new politi- that, for the first time for more than thirty cal cycle because the main candidates are years, the candidates are new! It is the end all fifty-years old and grew up after the of a political cycle which began in 1974 with moral crisis of 1968 and the economic crisis the election of Valéry Giscard d’Estaing who of 1973. They are the first generation borne defeated François Mitterrand with the help at the age of image and television. They’ve of Jacques Chirac who became Prime minis- understood the importance of communica- ter as a reward for. tion and opinion polls. The next election will also break with what is called “pensée In 1981, Jacques Chirac is told to have fa- unique”, the mainstream of French political voured the election of socialist François Mit- elite characterized by European integration- terrand in order to get ride of the outgoing ism, silence about immigration, fears about President. In 1988, François Mitterrand de- free market... It is what I call the “End of feated Jacques Chirac, who finally was e- taboos”.

Load more

  6

Copy Link