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Spatial and Temporal Variation in Mangrove Distribution (1950-2014) in Tampa, Florida USA Carolyn Cheatham Rhodes University of South Florida, [email protected]

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Spatial and Temporal Variation in Mangrove Distribution (1950-2014) in Tampa, Florida USA Carolyn Cheatham Rhodes University of South Florida, Cacheath@Mail.Usf.Edu University of South Florida Scholar Commons Graduate Theses and Dissertations Graduate School June 2017 Spatial and Temporal Variation in Mangrove Distribution (1950-2014) in Tampa, Florida USA Carolyn Cheatham Rhodes University of South Florida, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd Part of the Biology Commons, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Commons, and the Natural Resources Management and Policy Commons Scholar Commons Citation Cheatham Rhodes, Carolyn, "Spatial and Temporal Variation in Mangrove Distribution (1950-2014) in Tampa, Florida USA" (2017). Graduate Theses and Dissertations. http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/6813 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at Scholar Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Scholar Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Spatial and Temporal Variation in Mangrove Distribution (1950-2014) in Tampa, Florida USA by Carolyn Cheatham Rhodes A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Department of Integrative Biology College of Arts and Sciences University of South Florida Major Professor: Gordon Fox, Ph.D. Susan Bell, Ph.D. Ruiliang Pu, Ph.D. Date of Approval: June 28, 2017 Keywords: mangroves, estuarine marsh, temporal change, spatial change, climate change Copyright © 2017, Carolyn Cheatham Rhodes Table of Contents List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................................. ii List of Figures ...............................................................................................................................................................iii Abstract......................................................................................................................................................................... iv 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Global extent of Mangroves ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Regional extent of mangroves ................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Tampa Bay and the City of Tampa ............................................................................................................ 3 1.4 Mangrove species characteristics .............................................................................................................. 4 1.5 Abiotic drivers of change .......................................................................................................................... 5 1.6 Spatial and Temporal change detection ..................................................................................................... 7 1.7 Objectives .................................................................................................................................................. 8 2. Materials and methods ............................................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Study sites ................................................................................................................................................. 9 2.2 Data sources and processing .................................................................................................................... 11 2.2 Mangrove mapping.................................................................................................................................. 11 2.3 Change detection ..................................................................................................................................... 12 3. Results ..................................................................................................................................................................... 13 3.1 Mangrove areal extent ............................................................................................................................. 13 3.2 Rates of change ....................................................................................................................................... 16 3.3 Post-classification change analysis .......................................................................................................... 20 4. Discussion ................................................................................................................................................................ 24 5. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................... 27 Literature Cited ............................................................................................................................................................ 28 Appendix A: City of Tampa restoration sites .............................................................................................................. 32 Appendix B: Historic aerial imagery and mangrove classifications ............................................................................ 36 Appendix C: Permissions ............................................................................................................................................ 42 i List of Tables Table 1: Areal extent (hectares) of mangrove forest derived from aerial imagery 1950-2014 Tampa Florida USA . ................................................................................................................................................. 13 Table 2: Change in mangrove areal extent 1950-2014 Cypress Point: Change in mangrove areal extent 1950-2014. .................................................................................................................................................... 15 Table 3: Change in mangrove areal extent 1950-2014 MacDill AFB: Change in mangrove areal extent 1950-2014. .................................................................................................................................................... 15 Table 4: Change in mangrove areal extent 1950-2014 McKay Bay: Change in mangrove areal extent 1950-2014. .................................................................................................................................................... 15 Table 5: Change in mangrove areal extent 1950-2014 Picnic: Change in mangrove areal extent 1950- 2014. .............................................................................................................................................................. 16 Table 6: Change in mangrove areal extent 1950-2014 Tappan Park: Change in mangrove areal extent 1950-2014. .................................................................................................................................................... 16 Table 7: Change in mangrove areal extent 1950-2014 Tampa: Change in mangrove areal extent 1950- 2014. .............................................................................................................................................................. 16 Table 8: Mean percent log area change in mangrove extent. ....................................................................................... 17 Table 9: Cypress: Post classification change raster analysis. ...................................................................................... 21 Table 10: MacDill AFB: Post classification change raster analysis.. .......................................................................... 21 Table 11: McKay Bay: Post classification change raster analysis. .............................................................................. 21 Table 12: Picnic: Post classification change raster analysis. ....................................................................................... 22 Table 13: Tappan Park: Post classification change raster analysis. ............................................................................. 22 ii List of Figures Figure 1: City of Tampa and Tampa Bay located on the west coast of central Florida, USA. City of Tampa boundaries represented in grey. ......................................................................................................... 10 Figure 2: Mean percent log area change (CI 95%) in mangrove extent 1950-2014, Tampa, FL (percent change hectare per year adjusted for time Ĝ~u )) ............................................................. 18 ͢͠ ʠ ʡ / (ǭͨ$ͮͥ − ͨ$ Ĝ Figure 3: Mean percent log area change (CI 95%) in mangrove extent 1973-2014, Tampa, FL (percent change hectare per year adjusted for time Ĝ~u )) .............................................................. 19 ͢͠ ʠ ʡ / (ǭͨ$ͮͥ − ͨ$ Ĝ Figure 4: Mean percent log area change in mangrove extent 1950-2014 for each study site region (Cypress Point, MacDill AFB, McKay, Picnic, and Tappan Park), Tampa, FL (percent change hectare per year adjusted for time Ĝ~u )) ........................................................................... 19 ͢͠ ʠ ʡ / (ǭͨ$ͮͥ − ͨ$ Ĝ Figure 5: Mean percent log area change in mangrove
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