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Global Banking Private Placement May 2019 – Issue 4 Credit Journal Global Banking Private Placement 1 2 3 Banks Regulation Non-Bank Financial Institutions PAGE 2 PAGE 8 PAGE 11 4 5 6 Meet the Analyst Global Focus News & Events Q&A with Kevin Duignan, Global Head of Financial Institutions Ratings PAGE 14 PAGE 16 PAGE 20 Welcome to Credit Journal – a curated compilation of Fitch Ratings’ in-depth research and commentary. This latest edition takes a deep dive into banks and non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). With coverage of close to 3,000 banks, securities firms, finance and leasing companies, financial market infrastructure companies, business development companies (BDCs), and investment managers, we are a leading force in bank and NBFI ratings. We hope this issue, as well as future ones, serve as reliable resources and help you make more informed investment decisions. We welcome comments for future issues, including suggestions for topical or credit-specific research. For our latest insights, please visit fitchratings.com Welcome In this new edition of Fitch Ratings’ Credit Journal, I am pleased to share with you a snapshot of Fitch’s credit views in the Bank and Non-Bank Financial Institution (NBFI) sectors. With heightened challenges of growth, stability, and risk at the end of the credit cycle, creditworthiness considerations are a main focus for 2019, providing significant opportunity for us to convey value-added opinions and publish insightful bank and NBFI research. Covering close to 3,000 banks and NBFIs worldwide, we are proud to be a leading force in financial institutions ratings, widely accepted by issuers, investors, and other debt capital markets participants. In 2018, we rated approximately $900 billion in bank and NBFI debt issuance globally and further developed our extensive relationships with global Financial Institution investors through ongoing collaboration. Fitch has established itself as a leading voice in regulatory research, with consistent updates on the credit implications of supervisory initiatives, macro-prudential policies, conduct issues, and resolution outcomes, among other topics, some of which are included in this issue. The recent introduction of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) Relevance Scores transparently and consistently displays the relevance of ESG elements to the credit rating decision. Although ESG risks tend to have limited direct impact on bank ratings, nearly 20% of global financial institutions ratings are currently influenced by governance risk. As a result, this key initiative adds another dimension to Fitch’s offerings that will provide more comprehensive and robust commentary. We very much welcome any feedback that you may have on our bank and NBFI ratings and research offerings. If you have any suggestions on research topics that you would like us to cover, please do not hesitate to reach out to us, as we are always eager to address topics that are of interest to our readers. Happy reading! Erwin van Lümich, CFA, Head of Banks Business & Relationship Management Sector Research Sector Research Banks Regulation Non-Bank Financial Institutions Sector Research Banks leveraged loan market participants. Negative rating Banks actions could be further exacerbated if the banks did Leveraged Lending: Where is the Risk in not adjust capital management practices to reflect weakening market conditions. the U.S. Banking System? Online Bank Deposit Betas Trend Up as U.S. banks are exposed to leveraged Regulation Competition Intensifies lending risk in four ways: as underwriters and distributors through the syndication Deposit betas for the largest U.S. online banks have steadily increased following a series of Federal Reserve process; as holders of these loans on interest rate hikes in 2017 and 2018. Deposit betas Non-Bank Financial Institutions balance sheets; as providers of financing for traditional banks, while rising, continue to lag their to nonbank leveraged loan market online-only competitors. Traditional banks have had slower loan growth than online banks and already participants active in this space; and as have a high proportion of their funding coming investors in CLOs. from deposits. Leveraged loan risks to the U.S. banking system are We estimate that cumulative deposit betas for online manageable in the near term. Negative rating actions banks ranged from 43%-61% from the point of the for banks would become more likely in the event of Fed’s first rate hike in December 2015 through Q3 a significant market disruption for institutions, with 2018, with a median beta of 50%. Synchrony came large on-balance sheet leveraged loan portfolios and in at the low end of the range, while Sallie Mae was considerable outstanding credit lines to nonbank at the high end. Still, cumulative betas remain within expectations relative to assigned ratings. Consolidation to Continue for U.S. Regional Banks M&A activity in the U.S. banking sector could remain strong over the next 12-24 months for most banks. Although the majority of consolidation has been in the community bank and midsize bank space over the past decade, average deal sizes have risen almost every year since 2010. Recent sizable transactions indicate that M&A could be on the table for larger regional banks as well. The announced merger of equals involving BB&T Corp. and SunTrust Banks, Inc. could serve as a template for further consolidation among regional banks looking to compete directly with the largest national banks. However, the financial and strategic benefits associated with the deal are compelling and could prove difficult to replicate. Fitch Ratings | Global Banking – 3 Sector Research Southern European Banks’ Funding Will Asset Quality Review Benefit From TLTRO-III Credit Stabilizes for U.S. Credit Card Issuers The ECB’s new targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO-III) will reduce refinancing risks Increases in net charge-offs (NCOs) and early stage and costs for Italian banks at a time when their access delinquencies continued to moderate for U.S. to wholesale markets is challenging, and will provide credit card issuers in 3Q18, but the respite in credit funding flexibility to Spanish banks. The Italian and performance was partially driven by temporary factors. Spanish banking sectors are the two largest takers of Net charge-offs for general purpose and retail card ECB funds in Europe. issuers increased 13bps and 10 bps on average, respectively, year over year. The new series of two-year facilities also aims to encourage lending as it is designed as a still relatively U.S. Auto Loan Credit Improves cheap source of funding for banks. In Italy, however, The credit performance of U.S. auto loans strengthened the cheap funding is likely to contribute to continued in 2018 with net charge-offs for the largest auto lenders weak loan pricing and depressed net interest income. declining year-over-year in 4Q18. Delinquency trends TLTRO-III could also affect loan pricing in other markets, were more mixed among auto lenders in 4Q18 but if take-up is significant. In other western European also declined on a year-over-year basis. We believe the markets, we expect TLTRO-III take-up to be mostly favorable credit performance in 2018 largely reflected opportunistic, except in Greece and Cyprus, where a stronger U.S. economic backdrop, but we expect there is a more structural need given the high cost of weaker trends to emerge this year. wholesale funding. Anti-Money Laundering Scrutiny Catching Up with Nordic Banks Nordic banks’ cross-border operations in the Baltic region are under increasing scrutiny as EU authorities enforce stronger anti-money laundering (AML) regimes. The EU crackdown on money laundering should ultimately be positive for the European banking sector as it addresses past shortcomings and reduces litigation risk. Investigations that reveal money laundering or governance failures may, however, cause reputational damage for the banks directly affected and faltering investor confidence could spread to other banks, particularly in banking systems with a high degree of wholesale funding, concentration, and interconnectedness. Banks would typically be subject to negative rating action if fines, business restrictions, and remediation actions more permanently weighed on capitalization, franchise and funding profiles. Findings Fitch Ratings | Global Banking – 4 Sector Research that reveal broad-based weaknesses or failings in risk including the Royal Commission, that identified management or governance could also lead to negative shortcomings in conduct, governance, and compliance, rating actions. and will all be engaged in remediation that could distract management from day-to-day business. These Turkish Banks Have Notable Cushion challenges come amid other near-term pressures Against Weaker Asset Quality on earnings from a generally tougher operating environment. The Turkish banking sector’s profitability and capital buffers still provide a significant cushion against a The four major banks–Australia and New Zealand potential marked deterioration in asset quality, driven Banking Group, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, by the weaker operating environment. We stressed National Australia Bank, and Westpac–have large market the sector’s capital ratios over two years for a sharp shares across most products in Australia and New rise in non-performing loans (NPLs), a weakening in Zealand, which support strong earnings and balance profitability and Turkish lira depreciation. These factors sheets, and help moderate risk appetite compared
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