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Emerging Issues in Money Market Funds

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Emerging Issues in Money Market Funds Emerging Issues in Money Market Funds Peter Crane Haiwen Hsu President Treasurer Crane Data CTBC Bank (formerly Chinatrust) Emerging Issues in Money Market Funds • Current State of MMFs & Recent Trends • MF Portfolio Strategies & Holdings • MM Supply, CP & CD Update • Emerging Markets Issuance – Solving the Supply Problem? • CTBC Case Study • MMFs in Europe, Asia & Emerging Mkts. • MMF Regulatory Outlook • In the News; Q&A 2 Current State of Money Market Funds • Regulatory Overhang: SEC Regs Due 2/14? • MMF Assets $2.7 Trillion (Record was $3.9T) – Bank Savings Almost $7.0 Trillion • Still 25 Million Shareholders • $4.3 Bil. in Annual Revenue? (down from $9B) • Approx. 1/4 Share of “Cash” Markets • Zero Yields, Attrition & Consolidation • Growth & Pressures Overseas 3 History of Money Fund Assets Money Funds Are Down Almost $1.0 Trillion Over 4 Yrs (-27%), But Still at mid-’07 Levels. 4 4 Banks (Still) Taking Trillions From MMFs Money Funds Are Down $1.0T (-29.6%) Over 4 Yrs.; MMDAs Are Up $2.4T (+53.2%) 5 Rock Bottom: Ultra-Low Rate Environment 6 Fund Expenses & Fee Waivers Money Fund Revenue Estimates: $2.5 Trillion x 0.16% = $4.0 Billion (7/13); $2.4 Trillion x 0.37% = $8.8 Bil. (7/07) 7 7 Money Fund Market Share (8/31/13) Types & Number of Money Funds Minor Consolidation & Shrinking Universe Prime MMFs Still King Prime Inst 31% Prime Retail 24% Tax-Exempt 10% Share classes vs. portfolios Categorization issues 9 Taxable MMF Portfolio Composition 10 MM Supply, Commercial Paper & CD Update CD (21.13%) is #1 in Money Fund Portfolio Composition CP outstanding peak: $2.18T (2007) CP outstanding low point: $1.063T (2012) YCD was dominated by Eurozone issuers (before crisis) YCD/Non-US Financial CP new heavy-weight issuers: Japanese, Canadian, Australia YCD/Non-US Financial CP new issuers: Singapore, and emerging markets (Chinese/Taiwanese & Chilean) MM Supply, Commercial Paper & CD Update CDs Largest Money Fund Portfolio Composition Repo Volatile – Shrinking – Reg Pressure Treasury & Agency Supply CP Steady Govt vs. Prime VRDNs, T-E MMF Largest Portfolio Holdings & Country 14 15 Key Emerging Market Key Credit Sovereign Ratings • • Standard & Poor's Credit Rating Scale BBB AAA Chile & China lead the pack with a‘AA Chile / China / Korea / Mexico / Brazil all investment grade AA BB A B Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 C HILE Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 B Jan-98 RAZIL Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 M Jan-02 - EXICO ’ sovereign credit ’ rating Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 C HINA Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 K OREA Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Emerging Markets: Solving the Supply Problem? Sample Prime Fund Composition Issuer Type May-13 % Bank (US) 148 10% Banks (Eurozone) 197 14% Banks (other Yankee) 643 45% ABS/ABCP 89 6% Corporates 57 4% US (Tre, Agcy, Muni) 253 18% Foreign SSA 46 3% Other 4 0% Total 1,437 100% Data source: JP Morgan Securities LLC Emerging Markets: Solving the Supply Problem? Sample Prime fund and Global Bank Exposure Issuer # Top 3 CP/CD Total Assets Total 77 14% 666 1,055 Eurozone 15 49% 114 217 France 5 71% 64 125 Germany 5 99% 21 50 Netherlands 4 99% 28 42 Other Europe 13 42% 153 249 Norway 1 100% 16 33 Sweden 4 82% 54 81 Switzerland 2 100% 38 60 UK 6 80% 45 75 Other Regions 49 23% 399 588 Australia 6 78% 90 102 Canada 7 67% 122 150 Chile 4 100% 2 2 China 3 100% 3 3 Japan 8 71% 133 149 Singapore 3 100% 8 8 Data source: JP Morgan US 16 68% 42 173 Sample YCD Indicative Rates Data: 2013. 9.27 Rating 1-Mon 2-Mon 3-Mon 4-Mon 5-Mon 6-Mon 9-Mon 12-mon Japan A1/P1, A/A1 0.15 0.16 0.20 0.21 0.23 0.25 - 0.36 Japan A1/P1, A/A1 0.16 0.17 0.21 0.23 0.24 0.25 - - Japan (small) A1/P1, A/A1 0.17 0.23 0.27 0.28 0.30 - - Taiwanese A1/P1, A/A1 0.30 0.38 0.47 - - 0.55 - - Chinese A1/P1, A/A1 0.30 0.38 0.48 0.54 0.60 0.69 0.73 0.78 Chinese A1/P1, A/A1 0.25 0.33 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.63 - - Chinese A2/P2, A-/A3 0.30 0.70 1.00 - - - - - Chinese A2/P3, BBB+/Baa3 0.45 0.65 0.8 - - 0.95 - - Chilean A1/P1, A/A1 - - - 0.20 0.21 0.23 0.28 0.34 Data source: Tradition (North AME) Sample YCD Indicative Rates Data: 2013. 9.27 Rating 1-Mon 2-Mon 3-Mon 4-Mon 5-Mon 6-Mon 9-Mon 12-mon French A1/P1, A/A1 - 0.17 0.20 0.23 0.30 0.37 0.48 0.56 French A1/P1, A/A1 0.15 0.17 0.20 0.24 0.27 0.31 0.40 0.49 French A1/P1, A/A1 0.11 0.18 0.22 0.25 0.28 0.33 0.44 0.54 French A1/P1, A/A1 - 0.18 0.22 0.25 0.28 0.31 0.43 0.53 Canadian A1/P1, A/A1 0.115 0.075 0.105 0.115 0.125 0.135 0.165 0.195 Data source: Tradition (North AME) Emerging Market Issuers Attracting MMFs Key Indicators Of Selected China Banks Tier 1 Capital Total loans/deposits Return on average Issuer Rating Ratio (%) (%) assets (%) Agricultural Bank of A/Stable/A-1 9.7 – 2012 57.1 – 2012 1.3 – 2012 China Ltd. 9.5 – 2011 58.4 – 2011 1.1 – 2011 Bank of China A/Stable/A-1 10.2 – 2012 70.6 – 2012 1.2 – 2012 10.1 – 2011 70.9 – 2011 1.1 – 2011 China Construction A/Stable/A-1 11.2 – 2012 64.0 – 2012 1.7 – 2012 Bank Corp. 11.0 – 2011 65.1 – 2011 1.5 – 2011 Industrial & A/Stable/A-1 10.4 – 2012 63.9 – 2012 1.5 – 2012 Commercial Bank 10.1 – 2011 63.5 – 2011 1.4 – 2011 of China Ltd. Additionally, emerging market issuers found in rated MMFs including • Banco del Estado De Chile (AA-/Stable/A-1+) • Mubadala Development Corp (AA/Stable/A-1+) • National Bank of Abu Dhabi (A+/Stable/A-1) • Export-Import Bank of Korea (A+/Stable/A-1) • Qatar National Bank (A+/Stable/A-1) • Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (AA-/Stable/A-1+) 20 CTBC Bank: Case Study in Funding CTBC issues Yankee CD since May, 2012 CTBC Bank Yankee CD Overview CTBC Bank Yankee CD Overview Issuer CTBC Bank, New York Branch Bloomberg Ticker CTCBNY S&P: A-1/A, Stable Issuer’s Rating Moody’s: P-1/A2, Stable Fitch: F1/A, Stable Country Rating Taiwan – Moody’s: Aa3, S&P: AA-, Fitch: A+ Inception Date May 9, 2012 Currency USD Tenor 7 days to 1 year & customized Minimum Subscription $250,000 Distribution Brokers, Dealers & Direct Governing Law New York Issuing and Paying BNY Mellon Agent Source: Bloomberg, CTBC, NY Branch Taiwan: Compare to Maryland Taiwan Maryland • Area: 13,974 sq miles • Area: 10,455 sq miles • Population: 23.34 M • Population: 5.885 M • GDP: $431 billion (2011) • GDP: $301 billion (2011) Source: Trading Economics & Maryland Department of Business & Economic Development Taiwan: GDP Source: Trading Economics Taiwan Quiz: How Big Is Taiwan’s Foreign Debt? Macro view - Taiwan NPL Ratio % – Taiwanese Banking Increasing loan quality resulted in sharp decrease in non- performing loan ratio 0.62% NPL Ratio % - Other 35 Significantly lower NPL 30 ratio than China, Japan, 25 World USA and world’s 20 Japan average 15 China 10 United States 5 4.7 0 1.1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: IMF, cnYES Introduction of CTBC Bank • Date of Establishment: March 14, 1966 • CTBC Bank, formerly known as Chinatrust Commercial Bank • CTBC Bank,100% owned subsidiary of CTBC Holding, represents 91.6% & 86.9% of CTBC Holding’s asset & net income, respectively, as of December 31,2012 • Financial Highlights – CTBC Bank (as of December 31, 2012) – Net Income: USD $631.7 million – Total Assets: USD $66.4 billion – Total Number of employees: 9,900 Introduction of CTBC Holding • Financial highlights – CTBC Holding (as of December 31, 2012) – Total Assets: USD $72.4 billion – Total Number of employees: 11,408 • Ownership structure – Foreign institutional investors’ ownership increases from 20.2% in 2001 to 36.56% in April 2013. Financial Performance – CTBC Holding *NTD/USD conversion rate during the period: 29.136 ~32.86 CTBC Bank Geographical Network CTBC Bank (Canada) Beijing Rep. Tokyo Br. New York Br. New Delhi Br. Hong Kong Br. Shanghai Br. CTBC Bank (USA)& Sriperumbudur Br. Kowloon Br. Los Angeles Rep. Bangkok Rep. CTBC Bank (Phils) Hanoi Rep. Ho Chi Minh City Br. Singapore Br. PT Bank CTBC Indonesia Domestic Network: 147 Branches in Taiwan Overseas Network: 68 Locations 9 Overseas Branches－NY, HK, Kowloon, Tokyo, Ho Chi Minh, New Delhi, Sriperumbudur, Singapore and Shanghai 4 Subsidiaries－CTC Bank Corp. (Canada), CTC Bank Corp. (USA), CTBC Bank(Philippines) Corp., and PT Bank CTBC Indonesia 4 Representative Offices－Beijing, Bangkok, Hanoi, Los Angeles Worldwide & Intl MF Markets ($4.8T) 31 Offshore & European Money Funds Dublin & Luxembourg Approx. $670 Billion USD, Euro, GBP Market Share Regs: EU Proposal, FSB, IMMFA 32 Emerging Money Fund Markets Recent Growth of the Largest Money Fund Markets Outside of the U.S.
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