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Critical Indicator Report

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Critical Indicator Report COVID-19 Critical Indicators September 15, 2021 Introduction As Tennessee (TN) monitors reopening across the state, the Tennessee Department of Health (TDH) will maintain vigilance of cri cal COVID-19 indicators at the state and county levels to iden fy ‘problem areas’ across the state and provide early indica on of sustained increases in community transmission. These metrics were developed in line with the White House proposed State Ga ng Criteria and help officials monitor trends in four key areas: • Trends in COVID-19 Cases (see on page 2) • Trends in COVID-19 Symptoms (see on page 7) • Trends in COVID-19 Tes ng Capabili es (see on page 8) • Trends in Healthcare System Capacity (see on page 9) Beginning June 12th, 2020, case trends (beginning on page 2) include both confirmed and probable cases. COVID-19 in TN at a Glance 1,171,722 4,432 73,435 14,289 Total Number of New COVID-19 Active COVID-19 Total Number of COVID-19 Cases Cases Today Cases Today COVID-19 Deaths Key Definitions Below are defini ons important to understanding this report. In addi on to these defini ons, each visuaiza on in this report will be explained in further detail in the technical notes (see page 11): • In TN, a COVID-19 case is counted in the daily case count, demographics, and outcomes, if it classified as a confirmed or probable case. Please see the COVID-19 case defini on found at h ps://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/health/documents/cedep/novel-coronavirus/COVID-Case-Defini on.pdf. • A confirmed case is someone who tested posi ve (via PCR test) for the virus that casues COVID-19 (SARS-Cov-2). • A probable case is someone who may have tested nega ve by PCR, tested posi ve by another type of test or may not have been tested at all, but has an illness consistent with COVID-19, and may have other risk factors. For example: • If a person is a close contact of a COVID-19 case and has a clinically-compa ble illness, this person meets the criteria to be a probable case • The specimen collec on date is the date someone's COVID-19 lab sample was collected. Due to lab turnaround me there may be delays between when a specimen is collected and a confirmed case is reported to the public. Unless otherwise stated, visualiza ons in this report use specimen collec on date as it more accurately indicates when a pa ent was sick (and not when their case was reported to the public). This report was produced by the Tennessee Department of Health on September 17, 2021. Critical Indicators COVID-19 September 15, 2021 Trends in COVID-19 Cases in TN The following sec on will visualize the COVID-19 case trends (both confirmed and probable) in TN, including newly reported cases, the ac ve number of cases, and the number of COVID-19 confirmed deaths. Epidemic Curve of COVID-19 Cases by Specimen Collection Date1 The curve below visualizes the number of new cases each day since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak. The number of cases each day are visualized in the blue bars and the moving 7-day average is visualized with the red line. On August 30th, 2020, the moving 7-day average was the highest of the pandemic, averaging 8,338 new cases/day. 12K Illness that 12K began during this time may not yet be 10K reported. 10K s e s a C 9 8K 8K 1 - s D I e s V a O C C 9 f o 1 - 6K 6K e D I g a V r O e C v A 4K 4K g n i v o M 2K 2K 0K 0K Mar 1, 20 Jun 1, 20 Sep 1, 20 Dec 1, 20 Mar 1, 21 Jun 1, 21 Sep 1, 21 Specimen Collection Date The epidemic curve is based on the day the specimen was collected. Therefore, the most recent day’s data may not be complete as test results take an average of 2-5 days to be reflected in the visualiza on. To learn more about this visualiza on, please reference the technical notes. This report was produced by the Tennessee Department of Health on September 17, 2021. PAGE 2| Critical Indicators COVID-19 September 15, 2021 Statewide Number and Rate of Active Cases2 The chart below visualizes the number and rate of ac ve COVID-19 cases in TN. On September 3rd, 2020 (orange line) TDH updated its defini on of an ac ve case significantly lowering the number of ac ve cases on that day and moving forward. Since TDH updated its defini on of an ac ve case, the number and rate of ac ve cases hit a peak on December 21st, 2020 with 85,406 cases. ) s 80K 1200 n o s On September 15, 2021, there r e P were 73,435 active COVID-19 1000 0 cases in TN. The rate of active 0 0 60K , cases was 1,075.3 per 100,000 0 s 800 0 e 1 s persons. r a e C p ( e s v i 600 40K e t s c a A C e 400 v i t c 20K A f o 200 e t a R 0K TDH updated its definition of an active case on 9/3/2020 0 Mar 1, 20 Jun 1, 20 Sep 1, 20 Dec 1, 20 Mar 1, 21 Jun 1, 21 Sep 1, 21 Date of Public Report Daily Percent of Positive COVID-19 Tests3 The chart below visualizes the daily percent of posi ve COVID-19 tests. For today, September 15, 2021, the daily posi vity rate was 19.0% and the posi vity rate for the last 7 days was 18.9%. 25 19.0% 20 s o p % 15 y l i a D 10 Positivity Rate 10% 5 Positivity Rates 5% 0 Mar 1, 20 May 1, 20 Jul 1, 20 Sep 1, 20 Nov 1, 20 Jan 1, 21 Mar 1, 21 May 1, 21 Jul 1, 21 Sep 1, 21 Date On 5/3/2021, TDH shi ed to a more reliable system-generated date, the date the COVID-19 case was added to the surveillance system. Because of this change, this visualiza on has had a minor shi in the number of new cases reported for each day and therefore, the daily percent of posi ve COVID-19 tests. This report was produced by the Tennessee Department of Health on September 17, 2021. PAGE 3| Critical Indicators COVID-19 September 15, 2021 Positive Tests per 100,000 Person by Public Health Region (over last 7 days)4 The map below shows the number of new posi ve tests in the last 7 days per 100,000 persons. The arrow indicators represent the trend (up or down) as compared to the week prior. For the week of September 15, 2021, the highest rate of posi ve tests was seen in the Southeast Region. Addi onally, 12 of the 13 public health regions saw a decrease in the number of posi ve cases compared to the week prior. 646.7 619.5▲ 499.9 467.1 548.4 ▼ ▼ 621.7 ▼ ▼ 464.9 ▼ 404.5 ▼ ▼ 341.9 ▼ 527.5 696.2 450.3 ▼ ▼ 420.1 Positive Tests by Region ▼ ▼ 341.9 696.2 TN SARS-CoV-2 Variant Case Summary5 Below is a table summarizing COVID-19 variant cases reported to the Tennessee Department of Health. Because sequencing is not performed by all laboratories, these data are a convenience sample and not indica ve of the true prevalence of variants. To learn more about COVID-19 variants, please see the SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifica ons and Defini ons published by the CDC: h ps://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html Addi onal data on variant propor ons na onally and by state are avaiable from the CDC at: h ps://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-propor ons Variants of Concern B.1.617.2 TN Region B.1.1.7 -Alpha B.1.351 -Beta AY.1-Delta AY.2-Delta P.1 -Gamma -Delta Blountville-Sullivan Region 31 0 0 0 19 4 Chattanooga-Hamilton Region 83 0 0 0 71 0 East Tennessee Region 236 2 1 0 278 21 Jackson-Madison Region 16 0 0 0 72 1 Knoxville-Knox Region 49 1 0 0 68 4 Memphis-Shelby Region 1,663 4 0 5 2,157 39 Mid-Cumberland Region 600 1 0 2 387 15 Nashville-Davidson Region 355 1 0 2 264 11 Northeast Region 321 5 0 6 96 12 South-Central Region 129 1 0 1 110 0 Southeast Region 168 0 0 0 92 3 Upper-Cumberland Region 320 0 0 0 169 23 West Tennessee Region 344 7 1 0 521 11 Grand Total 4,315 22 2 16 4,304 144 This report was produced by the Tennessee Department of Health on September 17, 2021. PAGE 4| Critical Indicators COVID-19 September 15, 2021 TN SARS-CoV-2 Variant Case Summary Continued5 Below is a table summarizing the COVID-19 variants of interest cases reported to the Tennessee Department of Health. TN Region B.1.525 -Eta B.1.526 -Iota B.1.617.1 -Kappa Chattanooga-Hamilton Region 0 1 2 East Tennessee Region 0 7 24 Jackson-Madison Region 1 1 8 Knoxville-Knox Region 0 1 6 Memphis-Shelby Region 0 25 86 Mid-Cumberland Region 5 24 29 Nashville-Davidson Region 0 20 32 Northeast Region 1 8 10 South-Central Region 0 4 8 Southeast Region 0 0 1 Upper-Cumberland Region 0 10 10 West Tennessee Region 0 10 63 Grand Total 7 111 279 Vaccine Breakthrough Cases in TN6 CDC defines COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Cases as a U.S.
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