YEMEN Outlook for April-September 2020 Risk Overview – 2 April 2020 COVID-19 epidemic in Yemen Risk 1: Renewed Houthi offensive in Marib Risk 5: causes displacement east/southwards and severely reduced access to essential services Risk 4: Rapid depreciation of the Yemeni riyal sparks inflation reducing households’ ability to purchase basic goods and services Risk 3: De -facto partition results in reduced provision of basic services and reduced operating space for humanitarian actors Risk 2: Conflict escalates across the southwest causing significant loss of life, mass displacement, and severely reduced access to essential services. Questions? Feedback? Contact
[email protected] ACAPS Yemen Analysis Hub: Risk Report March 2020 Risk 1: Renewed Houthi offensive in Marib causes displacement Risk 3: De-facto partition results in reduced provision of basic services east/southwards and severely reduced access to essential services and reduced operating space for humanitarian actors Given that the Houthis have established a commanding hold over much of the north, The Houthis currently see themselves in a position of strength compared to the and that there is little prospect of the GoY regaining outright control of Yemen, both Government of Yemen (GoY). Control of Marib would nearly complete the Houthis sides may choose to focus their efforts on peace negotiations. Saudi Arabia could help control over northern Yemen. An intense conflict in Marib would cause casualties and to negotiate peace and recognise the Houthis’ mandate to administer much of displace over 500,000 people into the eastern and southern corners of Marib northern Yemen. This could result in a shifting focus towards post conflict governance (immediately to Harib), potentially spilling into Bayhan and Shabwah.