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Volcanic Ash Impacts on Critical Infrastructure ⇑ Thomas M Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 45–46 (2012) 5–23 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Physics and Chemistry of the Earth journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/pce Volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure ⇑ Thomas M. Wilson a, , Carol Stewart b, Victoria Sword-Daniels c, Graham S. Leonard b, David M. Johnston b, Jim W. Cole a, Johnny Wardman a, Grant Wilson a, Scott T. Barnard a a Department of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand b Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University and GNS Science, P.O. Box 756, Wellington, New Zealand c Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom article info abstract Article history: Volcanic eruptions can produce a wide range of hazards. Although phenomena such as pyroclastic flows Available online 22 June 2011 and surges, sector collapses, lahars and ballistic blocks are the most destructive and dangerous, volcanic ash is by far the most widely distributed eruption product. Although ash falls rarely endanger human life Keywords: directly, threats to public health and disruption to critical infrastructure services, aviation and primary Volcanic risk production can lead to significant societal impacts. Even relatively small eruptions can cause widespread Electricity supplies disruption, damage and economic loss. Water supplies Volcanic eruptions are, in general, infrequent and somewhat exotic occurrences, and consequently in Wastewater many parts of the world, the management of critical infrastructure during volcanic crises can be Transport Telecommunications improved with greater knowledge of the likely impacts. This article presents an overview of volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure, other than aviation and fuel supply, illustrated by findings from impact assessment reconnaissance trips carried out to a wide range of locations worldwide by our inter- national research group and local collaborators. ‘Critical infrastructure’ includes those assets, frequently taken for granted, which are essential for the functioning of a society and economy. Electricity networks are very vulnerable to disruption from volcanic ash falls. This is particularly the case when fine ash is erupted because it has a greater tendency to adhere to line and substation insula- tors, where it can cause flashover (unintended electrical discharge) which can in turn cause widespread and disruptive outages. Weather conditions are a major determinant of flashover risk. Dry ash is not con- ductive, and heavy rain will wash ash from insulators, but light rain/mist will mobilise readily-soluble salts on the surface of the ash grains and lower the ash layer’s resistivity. Wet ash is also heavier than dry ash, increasing the risk of line breakage or tower/pole collapse. Particular issues for water supply managers include: monitoring turbidity levels in raw water intakes, and if necessary increasing chlorina- tion to compensate for higher turbidity; managing water demand; and communicating monitoring results with the public to allay fears of contamination. Ash can cause major damage to wastewater dis- posal systems. Ash deposited onto impervious surfaces such as roads and car parks is very easily washed into storm drains, where it can form intractable masses and lead to long-term flooding problems. It can also enter wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), both through sewer lines and by direct fallout. Damage to modern WWTPs can run into millions of dollars. Ash falls reduce visibility creating hazards for ground transportation. Dry ash is also readily remobilised by vehicle traffic and wind, and dry and wet ash depos- its will reduce traction on paved surfaces, including airport runways. Ash cleanup from road and airports is commonly necessary, but the large volumes make it logistically challenging. Vehicles are vulnerable to ash; it will clog filters and brake systems and abrade moving parts within engines. Lastly, modern tele- communications networks appear to be relatively resilient to volcanic ash fall. Signal attenuation and interference during ash falls has not been reported in eruptions over the past 20 years, with the exception of interference from ash plume-generated lightning. However, some telecommunications equipment is vulnerable to airborne ash, in particular heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems which may become blocked from ash ingestion leading to overheating. ⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +64 3 364 2987x45511; fax: +64 3 364 2967. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (T.M. Wilson), [email protected] (C. Stewart), [email protected] (V. Sword-Daniels), [email protected] (G.S. Leonard), [email protected] (D.M. Johnston), [email protected] (J.W. Cole), [email protected] (J. Wardman), [email protected] (G. Wilson), [email protected] (S.T. Barnard). 1474-7065/$ - see front matter Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.pce.2011.06.006 6 T.M. Wilson et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 45–46 (2012) 5–23 This summary of volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure provides insight into the relative vul- nerability of infrastructure under a range of different ashfall scenarios. Identifying and quantifying these impacts is an essential step in building resilience within these critical systems. We have attempted to consider interdependencies between sectors in a holistic way using systems thinking. As modern society becomes increasingly complex and interdependent this approach is likely to become increasingly necessary. Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction consequently in many parts of the world, infrastructure managers may not have devoted serious consideration to management of a It has been estimated that nine percent of the world’s popula- volcanic crisis. tion lives within 100 km of a historically active volcano (Horwell and Baxter, 2006). This proportion is likely to continue to increase 1.1. Research context and methods due to higher-than-average rates of population growth in many re- gions and countries such as Central America, equatorial Africa, Over the past 15 years our international research group has Colombia, Ecuador and the Philippines that are highly volcanically aimed to undertake a sustained and systematic approach to volca- active. Eruption frequencies for a range of volcanically-active coun- nic impact assessment in the following areas: tries are shown in Table 1. Volcanic eruptions can produce a wide range of hazards. Critical infrastructure: including electricity, water supplies, Although phenomena such as pyroclastic flows and surges, sector wastewater, land and air transport, telecommunications. collapses, lahars and ballistic blocks are most destructive and dan- Ash cleanup and disposal. gerous (Hansell et al., 2006), volcanic ash fall is by far the most Primary industries, including agriculture. widely distributed eruption product. Volcanic ash can affect many Emergency management. people because of the large areas that can be covered by ash fall. Although ash falls rarely endanger human life directly, threats to Our group has utilised a research model of undertaking recon- public health, disruption to critical infrastructure services (e.g. naissance trips to areas impacted by volcanic eruptions worldwide, electricity and water supplies, transport routes, waste water and in conjunction with empirical, laboratory-based testing of critical communications), aviation, buildings and primary production, infrastructure components. Trips have been undertaken to investi- can lead to significant societal impacts (Horwell and Baxter, gate the impact of the following eruptions: Ruapehu, New Zealand 2006; Stewart et al., 2006). Even relatively small eruptions can (1945, 1995/1996); Mt St Helens, USA (1980 eruption); cause widespread disruption, damage and economic loss. For Sakurajima, Japan (1980s to present); Pinatubo, Philippines example, the 1995/1996 eruptions of Ruapehu volcano in the cen- (1991); Hudson, Chile (1991); Mt Spurr, Alaska (1992); tral North Island of New Zealand were very small by geological Reventador, Ecuador (2002); Etna, Italy (2004); Tungurahua, standards (VEI 3, refer to Table 1 for definition) but still covered Ecuador (1999–2000 and 2010); Merapi, Indonesia (2006); 2 over 20,000 km of agricultural land with ash fall and caused sig- Chaitén, Chile (2008); Redoubt, Alaska (2009), Soufrière Hills nificant disruption and damage to aviation, communication net- Volcano, Montserrat (2010) and Pacaya, Guatemala (2010) works, a hydro-electric power scheme, electricity transmission (Johnston, 1997; Johnston et al., 2000; Durand et al., 2001; Wilson lines, water supply networks, wastewater treatment plants, agri- et al., 2010a,b,c; Leonard et al., 2005; Barnard, 2004; Wilson et al., culture and the tourism industry (Cronin et al., 1998; Johnston 2007; Stewart et al., 2009a; Sword-Daniels, 2010; Sword-Daniels et al., 2000). The total cost of the eruption was estimated to be, et al., in press; Wardman et al., in press). in 1995/1996 value, in excess of $NZ 130 million ($US 104 million). Research methods for the fieldwork included: field observation, However, volcanic eruptions which produce abundant ash are, field testing, meetings, and semi-structured interviews. Interna- in general, infrequent and somewhat exotic occurrences, and tional fieldtrips were carried
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